bought for $800 in 2004 and now selling for $3600
sideordertodd
Posts: 262 ✭✭
I bought an unopened box of 1985 OPC hockey from BBCE in 2004 for $800 and opened it back in 2010 when they were selling for $1600. Just saw one sell for $3600 last night on Ebay!! Lesson learned....
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<< <i>I bought an unopened box of 1985 OPC hockey from BBCE in 2004 for $800 and opened it back in 2010 when they were selling for $1600. Just saw one sell for $3600 last night on Ebay!! Lesson learned.... >>
When you bought it in 2004 did you have a chance to win from busting it?
How about in 2010 when you ripped the packs was there a shot to win or at least get close?
80s OPC hockey was always a losing rip, there are only a couple key cards per set and 9s are incredibly difficult to pull from unopened. 84 OPC is your best best for psa 9 quality directly from packs but centering for that year is atrocious.
Robb
<< <i>The only 70s & 80s sets that really had any chance at a decent return based on ripping were 75 mini, 71 Topps baseball and until pops exploded (and price for packs) 86 Fleer basketball. All had/have strong pricing for 9s and very strong pricing for 10s (no longer true for 86 Fleer basketball). With mini boxes closing in on 3k per, 86 Fleer basketball boxes at 20k and 71 Topps baseball unopened non-existent none of those represent ripping opportunities any more.
80s OPC hockey was always a losing rip, there are only a couple key cards per set and 9s are incredibly difficult to pull from unopened. 84 OPC is your best best for psa 9 quality directly from packs but centering for that year is atrocious.
Robb >>
What I find so fascinating about the entire unopened discussion is that in almost all cases there is not even a remote chance of winning. I am curious if the expected loss is 50% or perhaps even more.
I get it that wrestling is not on most collectors buy lists but what is nice is that every single piece of unopened product I have opened I had a chance to win. I have only taken a beating on one and the losses on the other few were quite small. A few of the wins on the other hand have been out of this world.
I realize we are not dealing with rational thinking in this arena but to me backing into the price you are willing to pay is the only logical approach. The speculative element of the price just continues to climb and since there is no fundamental way to value that it is anyone's guess where prices stop.
1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, and 1989 OPC were painful to open even as a kid. 7 cards a pack. Take out the wax stained cards and it took forever to build a set.
It is my belief that people with money will always find a way to make something common they like into something precious and valuable by finding some way to make it "rare".
It is my belief that people with money will always find a way to make something common they like into something precious and valuable by finding some way to make it "rare". >>
Great quote.
90s and above the expected loss has to be 90-95%, save for perhaps current year product where prospect cards are valuable and set builders are active. The key pulls are almost all numbered or auto-ed cards and the stars hit one per case or so. The non-star numbered or auto-ed cards sell for under $5 almost across the board. Tough pill to swallow when you spend $300 on a 2003 basketball product and pull a Chris Kaman auto worth $3 instead of a Lebron, Wade or Anthony as your key card. Or $200+ for a 2005 hockey box and pull an auto and a jersey of 2 no-name prospects or players. The base cards for these products are all worthless and there are no longer any prospects.
I do not believe prices for most 70s and early 80s unopened has any correlation to contents in the box/pack any longer. Unopened has become a significant collectible in its own right, used to be a fringe part of the hobby, which has fueled the price appreciation. Additionally the BBCE authentication and wrapping service has allowed anyone to get top shelf prices for their unopened which just wasn't the case a few years ago. Instead of settling for 50-75% of retail via eBay or BBCE buy prices for unauthenticated product folks can get 100% of retail which has made unopened much more liquid and allowed a lot more people into the market.
Robb
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Ryanseven just made at least a couple grand on his recent 75 mini rip. So there are definitely nice payoffs still out there. >>
What does a box like that sell for?
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>75 mini box retails for about $2,800. Packs for about $75 each. >>
Sounds like a nice win.
Is there quite a bit more of that stuff floating around then other years?
<< <i>
<< <i>75 mini box retails for about $2,800. Packs for about $75 each. >>
Sounds like a nice win.
Is there quite a bit more of that stuff floating around then other years? >>
Of all issues from that era, 75 mini wax is the most plentiful, still, due in large part to the Conlon hoard being sold at auction by REA about 5-6 years ago. Those who bought and held back then are sitting pretty right now, as the box price at that point was about $750 per.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>75 mini box retails for about $2,800. Packs for about $75 each. >>
Sounds like a nice win.
Is there quite a bit more of that stuff floating around then other years? >>
Of all issues from that era, 75 mini wax is the most plentiful, still, due in large part yo the Conlon hoard being sold at auction about 5-6 years ago. Those who bought and held back then are sitting pretty right now, as the box price at that point was about $750 per. >>
Interesting info.
It seems then for a ripper you need to find a balance between the current availability and contents. Perhaps an interesting thread would be to do a break down of the box prices and potential contents and see where the spread is the lowest and the widest.
Obviously if you hit 10's it changes the dynamic so using 9's would be a good start.
He had a good rip but I don't think he has made thousands on it yet. His costs including grading are at least $1500 (15 packs at $75 per and almost 60 cards graded) and he only popped one card that sells for 1k or so thus far. He has a bunch of cards still at PSA for grading but needs to hit some 10s to get a couple thousand profit out of the deal. Either way he still will have a profitable rip just needs some low pop 9s or 10s to hit on his remaining sub to turn into a home run. Given the scans he has shown it does seem likely though.
I have ripped 16 mini packs since Jan 2013 (bought from BBCE as add-ons or part of group rips) and the two best cards after grading were a Ross Grimsley PSA 8 and a Claudell Washington PSA 8. At an average price of $60 per pack that isn't much of a return
Robb
The PSA 9 Carew is a huge hit, too. The PSA 8 Yount and Brett are nice, and the Yount will probably bump, too. The cards at PSA look really sharp, too. I would say conservatively he will make a 2k profit on the packs he bought once all the grades are in. His pack price was $67.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
A little off topic but now that Henry (MintMoonDog) is no longer supporting 75 mini prices has there been any correction in mid and high pop cards? He tended to establish the floor for any PSA 8, 9 or 10s Mini's out there for a really long time. I only look at PSA 9 HOF RC prices so haven't seen if there has been any impact to the market with his withdrawal.
Robb
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
<< <i>....With mini boxes closing in on 3k per, 86 Fleer basketball boxes at 20k.... >>
What I find so fascinating about the entire unopened discussion is that in almost all cases there is not even a remote chance of winning >>
This is the way I think, although "fascinating" is not the adjective I'd use to describe the unopened craze. We know, based on insertion rates, collation and odds, that there is no possible way there are enough nice copies of Jordan's RC in that 86 Fleer box to make your money back. So by definition, you've paid $20K for a box the contents of which are worth much less than $20K. A layer of cellophane doesn't change that reality. I say collect what makes you happy, so if you dig the unopened then go ahead. But I will never understand it, nor be convinced otherwise.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>....With mini boxes closing in on 3k per, 86 Fleer basketball boxes at 20k.... >>
What I find so fascinating about the entire unopened discussion is that in almost all cases there is not even a remote chance of winning >>
This is the way I think, although "fascinating" is not the adjective I'd use to describe the unopened craze. We know, based on insertion rates, collation and odds, that there is no possible way there are enough nice copies of Jordan's RC in that 86 Fleer box to make your money back. So by definition, you've paid $20K for a box the contents of which are worth much less than $20K. A layer of cellophane doesn't change that reality. I say collect what makes you happy, so if you dog the unopened then go ahead. But I will never understand it, nor be convinced otherwise. >>
Where do you see dogging the unopened in my statement?
I do find it fascinating that one can pay 20k in the example provided for something that essentially has no chance of being worth that once opened.
To me it makes sense to open items for nostalgia with the knowledge that there is a cost of doing so. I have purchased LJN WWF figures still MOC with the intent to open them and display knowing I am losing money in doing so. That being said it is $20 to $100 of lost value. Not many thousands.
I don't care how deep your pockets are eventually you will decide the expected value from the cards or just personal enjoyment is not worth opening the product. We are seeing this stated daily.
Fergie23 who has ripped tons of high end packs made the statement that the spread has gotten to wide for him to continue ripping in most cases.
<< <i>Where do you see dogging the unopened in my statement? >>
I read it as 'dig' with a typo.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
<< <i>I think ripping high end unopened is similar to playing the high stakes slot machines at the casino. >>
yup. last time i did it i was surrounded by women in polyester jumpsuits. so surreal.
<< <i>I think ripping high end unopened is similar to playing the high stakes slot machines at the casino. >>
Definitely, now more than ever.
That said, you can still buy a few 70s packs for a modest price and rip a bit just to quench the rip devil, lol..
Then again, there are collectors like myself and flatfoot and cpamike, who have been collecting unopened with little or no plans to rip any of it, for many years, going back to even when prices were much lower. For an unopened collector, the value of the box (or pack) is based more on its scarcity than on its contents. As long as the slot machine does have a chance to spit out a jackpot (even if they're few and far between) is enough to keep the allure alive to that extent, as well. But make no mistake, unopened collectors are not driven by that possibility when they collect. The packaging, the vintage curl of cello wrap on a mid-70s rack, its unpunched header card~that's where the appeal lies!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Dpeck, I'm not sure what you're mad about. I thought I was agreeing with you. >>
so if you dog the unopened then go ahead.
I am not mad about anything. I just read this and assumed you meant I was dogging the unopened. I wasn't and if I misread it I apologize if you took offense to my response.
<< <i>
<< <i>Dpeck, I'm not sure what you're mad about. I thought I was agreeing with you. >>
so if you dog the unopened then go ahead.
I am not mad about anything. I just read this and assumed you meant I was dogging the unopened. I wasn't and if I misread it I apologize if you took offense to my response. >>
This is a case of a typo gone awry..
I think he was totally agreeing with DPeck and was saying if you "dig"..ie. like unopened, that is fine.
<< <i>Oohhhh now I get what everybody is talking about! Yeah that was a typo. I fixed it. My premise was this, in a nutshell: if collecting unopened makes some folks happy, then I'm happy for them. But to me the prices are completely illogical, so unopened will never be for me.... As an investment. If I'm lucky enough to find a card shop selling 84 baseball cellos for $5 (I have) or a board member selling 82 football wax packs for $4 (I have) then I'll be thrilled to buy it and rip it. That's about it. >>
<< <i>
<< <i>Oohhhh now I get what everybody is talking about! Yeah that was a typo. I fixed it. My premise was this, in a nutshell: if collecting unopened makes some folks happy, then I'm happy for them. But to me the prices are completely illogical, so unopened will never be for me.... As an investment. If I'm lucky enough to find a card shop selling 84 baseball cellos for $5 (I have) or a board member selling 82 football wax packs for $4 (I have) then I'll be thrilled to buy it and rip it. That's about it. >>
fully agree with this statement.This is no longer a hobby and its pushing us old timers who were in it for the love of the game and memories.
<< <i>90s and above the expected loss has to be 90-95%, save for perhaps current year product where prospect cards are valuable and set builders are active. The key pulls are almost all numbered or auto-ed cards and the stars hit one per case or so. The non-star numbered or auto-ed cards sell for under $5 almost across the board. Tough pill to swallow when you spend $300 on a 2003 basketball product and pull a Chris Kaman auto worth $3 instead of a Lebron, Wade or Anthony as your key card. Or $200+ for a 2005 hockey box and pull an auto and a jersey of 2 no-name prospects or players. The base cards for these products are all worthless and there are no longer any prospects.
Robb >>
I could not agree with this statement more. I'll add the fact that if any of these products have redemption cards in them, they are likely expired and you are screwed there too.
If one views the unopened pack or box as the product itself, rather than focusing solely on the value of the internal components, I think it's a lot easier to make sense of the market. People pay huge premiums for items like Star Wars figures that are mint on a card or vintage toys and collectibles that are new old stock. Open that Star Wars figure or open that toy and there goes a substantial part of the value. What's the point in purchasing items like these when there are mint examples that can be had outside their packaging for a small fraction of the price? It's in the item being in its original state. I understand this makes no sense to most people, but for people like me, I love it. I've been saving certain items unopened since I was a teenager, and enjoy looking for vintage items in their original packaging. I'm sure there's some deep-seeded psychological issue in there somewhere (hah!).
For the pack busters, I imagine there is a huge standard deviation on expected value that narrows with quantity, but generally speaking, there is usually at least a small chance of winning, not unlike a lottery ticket or slot machine. That's a lot better than the guaranteed huge loss from opening up figurines and vintage toys.
<< <i>Again, it's what others have said. It's the relative scarcity of the unopened item itself, not what might be inside. This isn't hard.
You want to know a major contributor towards the rise in unopened prices? I'll take pack rippers for $100, Alex. And the Crisser thanks you for increasing the value of his collection. I cheer every group rip on this board, lol. >>
Happy to help!