OT: mathematical odds: 1: 9,223,372,036,854,775,808

gameusedhoop · March 19, 2014 2:13AM

1st of all, what is this number in words?

It is actually given as the odds of picking a perfect bracket in the Billion Dollar Bracket Challange.

Guess I should wait for the buying spree?

Stingray · March 19, 2014 2:14AM

Only the first 15,000 people can participate for the Billion Dollars.

gameusedhoop · March 19, 2014 2:17AM

Actually just googled the #, try guessing it without looking it up.

And, by the way: The contest is valid until 15 million entrants complete the Official Rules registration

TNP777 · March 19, 2014 2:22AM

9,223,372,036,854,775,808 in words

Nine quintillion, two hundred and twenty three quadrillion, three hundred and seventy two trillion, thirty six billion, eight hundred and fifty four million, seven hundred and seventy five thousand, eight hundred and eight.

dytch2220 · March 19, 2014 2:23AM

Million, Billion, Trillion, Quadrillion, Quintillion. fif.

coachnip13 · March 19, 2014 2:28AM

Technically those are the odds, but in reality it's much closer to 1 in 128 billion (not that that's any better).

charrigan · March 19, 2014 2:51AM

Actually, that assumes each game is a coin-flip, while some (1 vs 16, for example, clearly aren't).

Using a predictive model, you can improve your chances of scoring the cash by about a billion times.

Math

itzagoner · March 19, 2014 2:54AM

still slightly better odds than for me ever hooking up with Heidi Klum.

Dodgerfanjohn · March 19, 2014 3:21AM

Essentially it can't happen. However as pointed out, many individual contests are like 95/5 and the odds would be dramatically lower than those calculated based on each event being a coin flip.

BigRedMachine · March 19, 2014 3:27AM

<< 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 in words

Nine quintillion, two hundred and twenty three quadrillion, three hundred and seventy two trillion, thirty six billion, eight hundred and fifty four million, seven hundred and seventy five thousand, eight hundred and eight. >>

Smarty pants.

cpamike · March 19, 2014 3:30AM

<< still slightly better odds than for me ever hooking up with Heidi Klum.

>>

Speak for yourself. She is on the east coast after all...just saying.

coachnip13 · March 19, 2014 3:30AM

Okay, so here's a version of "What Would You Do?" Warren Buffet has stated that if someone goes 60-for-60 up to the Final Four, he would offer to buy them out. So, what would it take for you to give up the chance at $1 Billion? $10 million? $100 million?

BLUEJAYWAY · March 19, 2014 3:34AM

I thought this figure was the predicted future US Government deficit.

Dboneesq · March 19, 2014 3:48AM

Either one! If you can't live comfortably on $10 Million something is wrong with your lifestyle!

backbidder · March 19, 2014 3:56AM

<< 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 in words

Nine quintillion, two hundred and twenty three quadrillion, three hundred and seventy two trillion, thirty six billion, eight hundred and fifty four million, seven hundred and seventy five thousand, eight hundred and eight. >>

Thank you Sheldon Cooper.

mlbfan2 · March 19, 2014 4:01AM

<< Nine quintillion, two hundred and twenty three quadrillion, three hundred and seventy two trillion, thirty six billion, eight hundred and fifty four million, seven hundred and seventy five thousand, eight hundred and eight. >>

The "ands" are unnecessary, as my math teacher taught me.

orioles93 · March 19, 2014 5:04AM

<< Okay, so here's a version of "What Would You Do?" Warren Buffet has stated that if someone goes 60-for-60 up to the Final Four, he would offer to buy them out. So, what would it take for you to give up the chance at $1 Billion? $10 million? $100 million? >>

With smart investments and financial structures, someone should be able to live the rest of their life very comfortably on $10 million.

On another note, if you have simple Excel skills, you can make a spreadsheet that will randomly pick games for you. Then you can make a macro for it that will run the simulation as many times as you would like (i.e. 10,000 would work), and you can add another feature to it that allows you to add historical probabilities of winning by seed consideration. The possibilities are endless with excel and making macros. Just something interesting to do if you know how to do it.

jbox · March 19, 2014 5:08AM

I read somewhere that a good handicapper could get the odds down to around 25,000,000 to 1.

Also, Warren Buffet wrote the insurance policy for this contest. I think I saw the above number in an interview with him.

jbox

charrigan · March 19, 2014 5:17AM

<< I read somewhere that a good handicapper could get the odds down to around 25,000,000 to 1. >>

538, which is pretty much the best at all aspects of life, estimates the odds using their model to be 7.4 billion-to-1 against. See link I posted above.

Better than 25 billion-to-1, but still means your bracket has an average value of just shy of 14 cents.

yankeesman · March 19, 2014 7:20AM

"So you're tellin' me there's a chance!"

Raulsmaster · March 19, 2014 9:21AM

<< 
"So you're tellin' me there's a chance!" >>

You beat me too it! I'm surprised it took someone this long!

grote15 · March 19, 2014 10:06AM

<< Either one! If you can't live comfortably on $10 Million something is wrong with your lifestyle! >>

You could get FRONT ROW tickets to see Miley Cyrus, Doug!!

jmaciu · March 19, 2014 10:19AM

<< 

<< Either one! If you can't live comfortably on $10 Million something is wrong with your lifestyle! >>

You could get FRONT ROW tickets to see Miley Cyrus, Doug!! >>

I don't know what would be more painful for me, Tim: attending a Miley Cyrus concert or watching my 1979 Topps baseball cello box burn!!!

Of course, one could be in my future if she is still popular when my daughter is a little older.

VitoCo1972 · March 19, 2014 2:37PM

If you consider that a 16 had never beaten a 1 and instead of going 2 to the 63rd power and go 2 to the 59th, you're cutting your odds by over a third from that. About 5,764,607,500,000,000,000 to 1

thenavarro · March 19, 2014 2:57PM

<< but still means your bracket has an average value of just shy of 14 cents. >>

Take the 14 cents and run

stown · March 20, 2014 10:12PM

Best. Data collecting scheme. Ever.

My personal information isn't worth those odds. Have a better chance of hitting the lotto without getting a ton of spam in return.

coachnip13 · March 20, 2014 10:23PM

<< Best. Data collecting scheme. Ever.

My personal information isn't worth those odds. Have a better chance of hitting the lotto without getting a ton of spam in return. >>

So you don't have a secondary, spam only e-mail account. You should try one.

stown · March 20, 2014 10:28PM

<< 

<< Best. Data collecting scheme. Ever.

My personal information isn't worth those odds. Have a better chance of hitting the lotto without getting a ton of spam in return. >>

So you don't have a secondary, spam only e-mail account. You should try one. >>

I have one, thanks, but they would still get your personal information. Now if you put in bogus information in your spam account and miraculously hit every game, your entry would be disqualified and that would REALLY suck donkey testies.

coachnip13 · March 20, 2014 10:31PM

<< I have one, thanks, but they would still get your personal information. Now if you put in bogus information in your spam account and miraculously hit every game, your entry would be disqualified and that would REALLY suck donkey testies. >>

Yes, I see those black helicopters hovering outside. What information could they get that isn't already publicly available?

OT: mathematical odds: 1: 9,223,372,036,854,775,808

Comments