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OT: mathematical odds: 1: 9,223,372,036,854,775,808

gameusedhoopgameusedhoop Posts: 3,592 ✭✭✭✭
in Trading Cards & Memorabilia Forum
1st of all, what is this number in words?

It is actually given as the odds of picking a perfect bracket in the Billion Dollar Bracket Challange.

Guess I should wait for the buying spree?

Comments

  • StingrayStingray Posts: 8,843 ✭✭✭
    Only the first 15,000 people can participate for the Billion Dollars.
  • gameusedhoopgameusedhoop Posts: 3,592 ✭✭✭✭
    Actually just googled the #, try guessing it without looking it up.

    And, by the way: The contest is valid until 15 million entrants complete the Official Rules registration
  • TNP777TNP777 Posts: 5,710 ✭✭✭
    9,223,372,036,854,775,808 in words

    Nine quintillion, two hundred and twenty three quadrillion, three hundred and seventy two trillion, thirty six billion, eight hundred and fifty four million, seven hundred and seventy five thousand, eight hundred and eight.

    Dodgers collection scans | Brett Butler registry | 1978 Dodgers - straight 9s, homie
  • dytch2220dytch2220 Posts: 1,681 ✭✭✭
    Million, Billion, Trillion, Quadrillion, Quintillion. fif.
    The N8 Collection: PSA Registry Sets & Showcases
  • coachnip13coachnip13 Posts: 464
    Technically those are the odds, but in reality it's much closer to 1 in 128 billion (not that that's any better).
  • charrigancharrigan Posts: 2,293
    Actually, that assumes each game is a coin-flip, while some (1 vs 16, for example, clearly aren't).

    Using a predictive model, you can improve your chances of scoring the cash by about a billion times.

    Math
  • itzagoneritzagoner Posts: 8,753 ✭✭
    still slightly better odds than for me ever hooking up with Heidi Klum. image
  • DodgerfanjohnDodgerfanjohn Posts: 491 ✭✭✭
    Essentially it can't happen. However as pointed out, many individual contests are like 95/5 and the odds would be dramatically lower than those calculated based on each event being a coin flip.
  • BigRedMachineBigRedMachine Posts: 2,563 ✭✭✭


    << <i>9,223,372,036,854,775,808 in words

    Nine quintillion, two hundred and twenty three quadrillion, three hundred and seventy two trillion, thirty six billion, eight hundred and fifty four million, seven hundred and seventy five thousand, eight hundred and eight. >>




    Smarty pants.
  • cpamikecpamike Posts: 5,566 ✭✭✭


    << <i>still slightly better odds than for me ever hooking up with Heidi Klum. image >>



    Speak for yourself. She is on the east coast after all...just saying. image
    "The woods are lovely, dark and deep.
    But I have promises to keep,
    And miles to go before I sleep,
    And miles to go before I sleep."

    "Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."

    Collecting:
    Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
  • coachnip13coachnip13 Posts: 464
    Okay, so here's a version of "What Would You Do?" Warren Buffet has stated that if someone goes 60-for-60 up to the Final Four, he would offer to buy them out. So, what would it take for you to give up the chance at $1 Billion? $10 million? $100 million?
  • BLUEJAYWAYBLUEJAYWAY Posts: 9,556 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I thought this figure was the predicted future US Government deficit.
    Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
  • DboneesqDboneesq Posts: 18,219 ✭✭
    Either one! If you can't live comfortably on $10 Million something is wrong with your lifestyle!
    STAY HEALTHY!

    Doug

    Liquidating my collection for the 3rd and final time. Time for others to enjoy what I have enjoyed over the last several decades. Money could be put to better use.
  • backbidderbackbidder Posts: 237 ✭✭✭
    << 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 in words

    Nine quintillion, two hundred and twenty three quadrillion, three hundred and seventy two trillion, thirty six billion, eight hundred and fifty four million, seven hundred and seventy five thousand, eight hundred and eight. >>


    Thank you Sheldon Cooper.
  • mlbfan2mlbfan2 Posts: 3,115 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Nine quintillion, two hundred and twenty three quadrillion, three hundred and seventy two trillion, thirty six billion, eight hundred and fifty four million, seven hundred and seventy five thousand, eight hundred and eight. >>



    The "ands" are unnecessary, as my math teacher taught me.
  • orioles93orioles93 Posts: 3,480 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Okay, so here's a version of "What Would You Do?" Warren Buffet has stated that if someone goes 60-for-60 up to the Final Four, he would offer to buy them out. So, what would it take for you to give up the chance at $1 Billion? $10 million? $100 million? >>



    With smart investments and financial structures, someone should be able to live the rest of their life very comfortably on $10 million.

    On another note, if you have simple Excel skills, you can make a spreadsheet that will randomly pick games for you. Then you can make a macro for it that will run the simulation as many times as you would like (i.e. 10,000 would work), and you can add another feature to it that allows you to add historical probabilities of winning by seed consideration. The possibilities are endless with excel and making macros. Just something interesting to do if you know how to do it.
    What I Collect:

    PSA HOF Baseball Postwar Rookies Set Registry- (Currently 80.51% Complete)


    PSA Pro Football HOF Rookie Players Set Registry- (Currently 19.80% Complete)


    PSA Basketball HOF Players Rookies Set Registry- (Currently 6.02% Complete)
  • jboxjbox Posts: 408 ✭✭
    I read somewhere that a good handicapper could get the odds down to around 25,000,000 to 1.

    Also, Warren Buffet wrote the insurance policy for this contest. I think I saw the above number in an interview with him.

    jbox
  • charrigancharrigan Posts: 2,293


    << <i>I read somewhere that a good handicapper could get the odds down to around 25,000,000 to 1. >>



    538, which is pretty much the best at all aspects of life, estimates the odds using their model to be 7.4 billion-to-1 against. See link I posted above.

    Better than 25 billion-to-1, but still means your bracket has an average value of just shy of 14 cents.
  • yankeesmanyankeesman Posts: 990 ✭✭✭✭✭
    image

    "So you're tellin' me there's a chance!"

    Don Mattingly, Yogi Berra, Thurman Munson, Brian McCann and Topps Rookie Cup autograph collector
    www.questfortherookiecup.com
  • RaulsmasterRaulsmaster Posts: 663 ✭✭


    << <i>
    "So you're tellin' me there's a chance!" >>



    You beat me too it! I'm surprised it took someone this long!
    It never leaves you...
  • grote15grote15 Posts: 29,743 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Either one! If you can't live comfortably on $10 Million something is wrong with your lifestyle! >>



    You could get FRONT ROW tickets to see Miley Cyrus, Doug!!


    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
  • jmaciujmaciu Posts: 1,289 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Either one! If you can't live comfortably on $10 Million something is wrong with your lifestyle! >>



    You could get FRONT ROW tickets to see Miley Cyrus, Doug!! >>



    I don't know what would be more painful for me, Tim: attending a Miley Cyrus concert or watching my 1979 Topps baseball cello box burn!!!image

    Of course, one could be in my future if she is still popular when my daughter is a little older.

    Jmaciu's Collection
  • VitoCo1972VitoCo1972 Posts: 6,130 ✭✭✭
    If you consider that a 16 had never beaten a 1 and instead of going 2 to the 63rd power and go 2 to the 59th, you're cutting your odds by over a third from that. About 5,764,607,500,000,000,000 to 1
    My Autograph Projects

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  • thenavarrothenavarro Posts: 7,497 ✭✭✭


    << <i> but still means your bracket has an average value of just shy of 14 cents. >>



    Take the 14 cents and run
    Buying US Presidential autographs
  • stownstown Posts: 11,321 ✭✭✭
    Best. Data collecting scheme. Ever.

    My personal information isn't worth those odds. Have a better chance of hitting the lotto without getting a ton of spam in return.
    So basically my kid won't be able to go to college, but at least I'll have a set where the three most expensive cards are of a player I despise ~ CDsNuts
  • coachnip13coachnip13 Posts: 464


    << <i>Best. Data collecting scheme. Ever.

    My personal information isn't worth those odds. Have a better chance of hitting the lotto without getting a ton of spam in return. >>



    So you don't have a secondary, spam only e-mail account. You should try one.
  • stownstown Posts: 11,321 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Best. Data collecting scheme. Ever.

    My personal information isn't worth those odds. Have a better chance of hitting the lotto without getting a ton of spam in return. >>



    So you don't have a secondary, spam only e-mail account. You should try one. >>



    I have one, thanks, but they would still get your personal information. Now if you put in bogus information in your spam account and miraculously hit every game, your entry would be disqualified and that would REALLY suck donkey testies.
    So basically my kid won't be able to go to college, but at least I'll have a set where the three most expensive cards are of a player I despise ~ CDsNuts
  • coachnip13coachnip13 Posts: 464


    << <i>I have one, thanks, but they would still get your personal information. Now if you put in bogus information in your spam account and miraculously hit every game, your entry would be disqualified and that would REALLY suck donkey testies. >>



    Yes, I see those black helicopters hovering outside. What information could they get that isn't already publicly available?
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