Anyone watch the Newman Sale Session 1 earlier today?
SethChandler
Posts: 1,720 ✭✭✭✭
The Platinum Session is tonight, so I guess the Session 1 was just "stuff", pretty nice stuff though. There were quite a few stellar coins that brought crazy prices. A few of the high grade Proof Seated Quarters went very strong....it will be a good indicator of the proof Seated Monsters that go off later tonight. Expect crazy prices. Some of the interesting biz strike Seated Dimes went for strong money.
On the other hand, the dark coins, the mottled toned coins, the deadly trifecta of : unstarred, the unplused, the non-CAC coins just went for ho hum money, as expected. Its interesting to pay attention to the spreads of NGC/PCGS coin prices on Coinfacts. I believe the prices realized are very much in correlation with how a coin's quality lines up in this spread. There ain't no Santa Clause in numismatics.
I was able to buy three nice Biz strike Barber Quarters. Kinda cool, I'm the third owner since they left the mint. Here's hoping they haven't been puttied or lasered.
Seth
On the other hand, the dark coins, the mottled toned coins, the deadly trifecta of : unstarred, the unplused, the non-CAC coins just went for ho hum money, as expected. Its interesting to pay attention to the spreads of NGC/PCGS coin prices on Coinfacts. I believe the prices realized are very much in correlation with how a coin's quality lines up in this spread. There ain't no Santa Clause in numismatics.
I was able to buy three nice Biz strike Barber Quarters. Kinda cool, I'm the third owner since they left the mint. Here's hoping they haven't been puttied or lasered.
Seth
Collecting since 1976.
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Was only watching a couple of others this morning, all went much higher than I was willing to go. Maybe seeing them in person would have changed my mind, but probably not at those prices!
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<< <i>I planned to but had multiple wrenches thrown into my schedule. The entire week has been a mess. I plan on reviewing many things from the day and watching some live tonight and some live stuff tomorrow if I can. It will be a good time to sit and review the majority of the auction after it is all over. It will be interesting to see what ends up in PCGS holders over the next couple of years...and then to see what coins end up showing up for auction again within the next 12 months.
I am going to predict that you will see fewer coins that you might have guessed, especially among the high-end coins, in PCGS holders and fewer coins than you might think at auction again in the next 12 months.
There will be two general types of buyers from the auction:
1. Buyers of trophy coins, and those buyers tend to keep the coins for a while.
2. Buyers of the lesser coins who simply want to possess their own piece or two from the fabled collection, another group that tends to hold on to coins for a while.
At current pricing, there is little or no room for dealer markup or speculation, IMO, and it appears that the grading is enthusiastic enough such that upgrades will be as rare as hen's teeth. Crossovers will be challenged, by all accounts. See the Legend and DWN (and other dealer) reports that prospectively discuss the sale, and if you read between the lines, that is what they are saying.
Edit: When you are buying coins from an auction like this, you are going to pay a premium for the sizzle. Some of the sizzle will diminish over time. Be careful!
<< <i>In my opinion, from the really great pictures on HA, the grades are in line. >>
There is no way, no how you can grade these particular coins from photos.
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<< <i>
<< <i>In my opinion, from the really great pictures on HA, the grades are in line. >>
There is no way, no how you can grade these particular coins from photos. >>
I didn't grade them, a committee did. And I stand by what I said. Based on the really great pictures, they look in line. And for the CAC people, they must be graded right, since about every one has the approval.
<< <i>
<< <i>In my opinion, from the really great pictures on HA, the grades are in line. >>
There is no way, no how you can grade these particular coins from photos. >>
Agree, and I would ask who was part of the committee and what were their potential conflicts of interests and biases. I doubt that the graders did not know that they were grading the Newman coins. When the Wabbit coins get submitted for grading, the graders do not know (or care).
<< <i>
I am going to predict that you will see fewer coins that you might have guessed, especially among the high-end coins, in PCGS holders and fewer coins than you might think at auction again in the next 12 months.
>>
I highly doubt that!
You might have me confused with someone else. I think you are making the wrong assumptions about myself in your post. I think you may have made the exact opposite assumptions about me that you should have.
All of that mess said, I still stand by my original statements of: It will be interesting to see what ends up in PCGS holders over the next couple of years...and then to see what coins end up showing up for auction again within the next 12 months.
Will send a PM in a few....
Looking for Top Pop Mercury Dime Varieties & High Grade Mercury Dime Toners.
I spend 10 times more in the first session than I did in tonight's.
While prices were very strong in both, I found them to be much more ridiculous tonight than this afternoon.
Folks, there is A LOT of money out there seeking REAL coins. Not all coins mind you, but really special ones.
njcc
Individually, they're just coins. It comes down to the worth/value of their provenence.
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Those paying so much for their wins, probably can well afford it. All it takes is two extremely wealthy bidders to compete with each other. It is becoming increasingly more expensive to own the top POP coins in a Capped Bust Half Dollar marriage. Overton collectors at the top need to have lots and lots of money, and they appear to have that much money for coins. There is only one PCGS65 in this marriage. To me, the gamble is a $24K NGC coin crossing to PCGS at the same grade, so it is then worth $150K. Way too much of a gamble for most of us.
One more thought. Why would PCGS want to cross this coin at the same grade, when the lone only top POP PCGS coin in this marriage, would then have to share the top spot?
1% of $150k x 1000 opportunities throughout the year = $1,500,000 straight to the bottom line.... Why in the world would PCGS play politics and not cross a worthy coin to the detriment of their shareholders?
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<< <i>
<< <i>In my opinion, from the really great pictures on HA, the grades are in line. >>
There is no way, no how you can grade these particular coins from photos. >>
You sure can say that again. It seemed like an old-school raw Stack's sale, to some extent…
That being said, there were some interesting coins hiding in Session 1, and about 25 times as many traps. It will be interesting to see how many of the dark, mottled coins wind up reincarnated all blasty and white in a few weeks and how many of the dark ones that had hidden problems will show up in no grade holders.
What is now proved was once only imagined. - William Blake
<< <i>Capped Bust Half Dollars? Almost everything I was seriously following in the Newman collection, went for way more than I thought they were worth. I certainly hope the winners are happy keeping their wins in their NGC holders. Even if their coins cross to PCGS at the same grades, they paid way more than I think their coins are worth. For example, a Newman 1807 Large Star O-114 in NGC65 CAC went for $152,750. That is double what I thought this coin was worth. Back in 2010 a PCGS CAC similar coin went for $149,500. But then, in 2000 another NGC65, graded like this Newman coin, went for only $24,150. Note the difference in the decimal point location. Is this Newman coin worth six times as much as that coin, in the same NGC graded holder?
Those paying so much for their wins, probably can well afford it. All it takes is two extremely wealthy bidders to compete with each other. It is becoming increasingly more expensive to own the top POP coins in a Capped Bust Half Dollar marriage. Overton collectors at the top need to have lots and lots of money, and they appear to have that much money for coins. There is only one PCGS65 in this marriage. To me, the gamble is a $24K NGC coin crossing to PCGS at the same grade, so it is then worth $150K. Way too much of a gamble for most of us.
One more thought. Why would PCGS want to cross this coin at the same grade, when the lone only top POP PCGS coin in this marriage, would then have to share the top spot? >>
Just because an NGC MS-65 sold for 24k in 2000, doesn't set the present market value of the coin to 24k, whether or not it's an NGC example. I bet that same 24k coin would bring considerably more if it came to market today. 2000 was a long time ago when it comes to coin prices in many areas, so calling the NGC MS-65 CAC a 24k coin isn't really fair or accurate.
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But to no avail.
I'm saving it up for the world Newman coins
where their will be less competition!
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
1% of $150k x 1000 opportunities throughout the year = $1,500,000 straight to the bottom line.... any conscious protection of top pops went out the window January of this year.
That is total BS. Check the crossover percentage. It remains the same at around 40% and that includes cross at any grade.
We have seen a lot more high end coins submitted for crossover this year but I attribute that to market conditions.
As always, we will grade them as we see them - and I expect we will see a lot of them. No politics on this end.
We want all the best coins in PCGS holders but we will not comprise our standards to get them.
Remember, PCGS was the first company to offer a lifetime guarantee on authenticity and grade.
<< <i>One more thought. Why would PCGS want to cross this coin at the same grade, when the lone only top POP PCGS coin in this marriage, would then have to share the top spot?
1% of $150k x 1000 opportunities throughout the year = $1,500,000 straight to the bottom line.... any conscious protection of top pops went out the window January of this year.
That is total BS. Check the crossover percentage. It remains the same at around 40% and that includes cross at any grade.
We have seen a lot more high end coins submitted for crossover this year but I attribute that to market conditions.
As always, we will grade them as we see them - and I expect we will see a lot of them. No politics on this end.
We want all the best coins in PCGS holders but we will not comprise our standards to get them.
Remember, PCGS was the first company to offer a lifetime guarantee on authenticity and grade. >>
That is the way it should be! Let me ask this question as I am totally curious. Do you feel that when you guys get a coin with a min cross grade that is valued in the 6 figure or better range that many times you fail to cross it at grade due to not feeling comfortable viewing the coin through plastic?
We try to cross every coin, regardless of its value - or pop. As I said we want all the best coin in PCGS holders.
The plastic holder can interfere with our ability to grade the coin simply because it is sometimes difficult to see the coin. This applies regardless of the value.
We regularly cross many very high value coins.
<< <i>That is the way it should be! Let me ask this question as I am totally curious. Do you feel that when you guys get a coin with a min cross grade that is valued in the 6 figure or better range that many times you fail to cross it at grade due to not feeling comfortable viewing the coin through plastic?
We try to cross every coin, regardless of its value - or pop. As I said we want all the best coin in PCGS holders.
The plastic holder can interfere with our ability to grade the coin simply because it is sometimes difficult to see the coin. This applies regardless of the value.
We regularly cross many very high value coins. >>
Don, what happens when all the graders agree it's a "lock cross" at the same grade, and when it's cracked out you spot a huge rim dent, or similar, that was covered by the white "prong" ?
Once we crack it out we have already guaranteed the grade. If we discover a problem after removing the coin from the holder it would go into our guarantee process and we would buy it back or work out some other arrangement with the submitter.
Michael Kittle Rare Coins --- 1908-S Indian Head Cent Grading Set --- No. 1 1909 Mint Set --- Kittlecoins on Facebook --- Long Beach Table 448