I expect this to be a slight rise with heavier losses to come. Of course I'm just as clueless as anyone else. Just my guess.
I kept saying I was going to buy at $25 and I waited and waited and waited. I just bought $420 of 90% at spot at $28. *sigh*
So now I'm torn between buying now or waiting it out a little longer. I was hoping to see $19 so I could buy a 100ozer for 2k. I don't have enough cash lying around to buy every dip so I want to get the most bang for my buck here.
just bought a 1 oz. gold buffalo (2013) for $1460 cash at a local dealer... I can live with these prices for a while longer
"Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
Prices are about 1400 right now, but I could not even guess if we go to 1200 or 1600 first. The manipulation in the gold and silver markets due to all the paper floating around makes any guess hazardous to your wallet if you are a little guy. My worthless guess for the rest of the year is trending down and then back up again next year.
Retired United States Mint guy, now working on an Everyman Type Set.
Small dead cat bounce type of action. Two or three days of small gains. Then it will be a slow bleed for 3-6 months dying by a thousand small cuts (after that my crystal ball goes black). Probably nothing dramatic for many months. but, then the next serious banking, stock market or sovereign debt crisis will bring down the markets and the metals with it for one spectacular correction / crash.
After the crisis / correction is when I will buy. I won't buy more of either silver or gold until 99% of the general public hates the stuff.
Here is my new outlook: If everyone says "inflation" expect deflation. If everyone says up, expect down. Whatever you 'expect' to happen, know that something worse, something different and something that you never expected will probably happen instead. It will keep you on your toes.
Tyler
Wait, so if I am 'expecting' a long slow bleed, and then a big drop, I really should expect the opposite? I can't even take my own advice!!
if I am 'expecting' a long slow bleed, and then a big drop, I really should expect the opposite? I can't even take my own advice!!
lol, that's one of the reasons that I don't try to time the market. I manage my own finances, at least I know what the numbers are and how they should fit together. If I think that the price is a bit too high *for the environment* and *for the psychology* then I hold off for awhile.
If I haven't bought for awhile and have accumulated some cash, one fine day those dollars might start hollering "SAVE ME! HELP, SAVE ME!" That's when I decide that it's time to buy.
It's not about timing the market, it's about timing your own finances. The silver and gold and platinum prices will take care of themselves.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Well, let's see. Gold fell from about $1000 to $680 during the 08 crash. Do the math. Those that didn't fall out of the tree when they shook it did quite well, and if they continue to hold the same gold they are still doing quite well.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
To me "gold is the canary in the coal mine." Just a matter of time before the mine collapses, and I believe it will be well before 2020. Keep your eye on the dollar, S&P500, interest rates and the bond market. It only takes one of them to free the canary and chances are one of them will bring down at least two of the others. When that happens I want to already be in metals, not deciding to get into them.
While I would much rather have a stack of dollars that were going to have the same value in the future, economic events and policy decisions have left me with no other logical choice.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
Down it goes....and then back up again. Tricked again.
Gold has now formed a fairly well defined 23 month, 4 pt parallel channel with $1360 currently the channel bottom. It still makes more sense to bounce much harder off this key support line harder than it has. Gold rarely ignores obvious patterns like this while blowing straight through them. The channel is $350 wide. The 2011 A leg fell by 20%. This one has dropped by 26% from $1800. A symmetric fall to match the A leg would have only been $1425. The mid-channel line of this channel is also an important swing line which starts back at the $1702 late Aug 2011 low. The mid-channel point is currently around $1500, a challenging bounce indeed. With tonight's additional drop to $1335 again, another $80 bounce like yesterday will only take us back to $1415-$1425.
Gold is also now in a band of $1300-$1425 that offered some support in the 4th quarter of 2010. I don't think the channel above and this support area breaking down until a larger bounce is in play. Still 2 days left in OpEx week so anything can happen. Found it interesting that a number of mining share options were wiped totally clean for April. For instance the Barrick Gold calls are all gone and out of the money. You have to move up to May and further out to find lower priced calls in the money. And there aren't many of them.
Smittys
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$34.00...
Currently Listed: Nothing
Take Care, Dave
I kept saying I was going to buy at $25 and I waited and waited and waited. I just bought $420 of 90% at spot at $28. *sigh*
So now I'm torn between buying now or waiting it out a little longer. I was hoping to see $19 so I could buy a 100ozer for 2k. I don't have enough cash lying around to buy every dip so I want to get the most bang for my buck here.
Successful Transactions With: JoeLewis, Mkman123, Harry779, Grote15, gdavis70, Kryptonitecomics
Silver $44
By year 2030, 2035 at the latest
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
This is PAPER Gold and SILVER, Only !
<< <i>It already Bounced, get ready for next leg down.
This is PAPER Gold and SILVER, Only ! >>
Not according to the prices I can buy at Goldmart!
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PCGS Registries
Box of 20
SeaEagleCoins: 11/14/54-4/5/12. Miss you Larry!
HE>I
As soon as it gets up just a bit, some of the folks who missed the get out point, will take an op and get out on the next rise.
jim
Aren't most of those dollars in bank accounts?
Who gains most when those equities burst?
When we do find out why, I'll still have my stacks plus some.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
Small dead cat bounce type of action. Two or three days of small gains. Then it will be a slow bleed for 3-6 months dying by a thousand small cuts (after that my crystal ball goes black). Probably nothing dramatic for many months. but, then the next serious banking, stock market or sovereign debt crisis will bring down the markets and the metals with it for one spectacular correction / crash.
After the crisis / correction is when I will buy. I won't buy more of either silver or gold until 99% of the general public hates the stuff.
Here is my new outlook: If everyone says "inflation" expect deflation. If everyone says up, expect down. Whatever you 'expect' to happen, know that something worse, something different and something that you never expected will probably happen instead. It will keep you on your toes.
Tyler
Wait, so if I am 'expecting' a long slow bleed, and then a big drop, I really should expect the opposite? I can't even take my own advice!!
lol, that's one of the reasons that I don't try to time the market. I manage my own finances, at least I know what the numbers are and how they should fit together. If I think that the price is a bit too high *for the environment* and *for the psychology* then I hold off for awhile.
If I haven't bought for awhile and have accumulated some cash, one fine day those dollars might start hollering "SAVE ME! HELP, SAVE ME!" That's when I decide that it's time to buy.
It's not about timing the market, it's about timing your own finances. The silver and gold and platinum prices will take care of themselves.
I knew it would happen.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
<< <i>They wont his time around unless they hold it till 2020 >>
seven years is nothing at all
While I would much rather have a stack of dollars that were going to have the same value in the future, economic events and policy decisions have left me with no other logical choice.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
Edit: then again if silver goes even lower and then up again like it did in 2008-2011, I'll call it a win
Successful Transactions With: JoeLewis, Mkman123, Harry779, Grote15, gdavis70, Kryptonitecomics
Gold has now formed a fairly well defined 23 month, 4 pt parallel channel with $1360 currently the channel bottom. It still makes more sense to bounce much harder off this key support line harder than it has. Gold rarely ignores obvious patterns like this while blowing straight through them. The channel is $350 wide. The 2011 A leg fell by 20%. This one has dropped by 26% from $1800. A symmetric fall to match the A leg would have only been $1425. The mid-channel line of this channel is also an important swing line which starts back at the $1702 late Aug 2011 low. The mid-channel point is currently around $1500, a challenging bounce indeed. With tonight's additional drop to $1335 again, another $80 bounce like yesterday will only take us back to $1415-$1425.
Gold is also now in a band of $1300-$1425 that offered some support in the 4th quarter of 2010. I don't think the channel above and this support area breaking down until a larger bounce is in play. Still 2 days left in OpEx week so anything can happen. Found it interesting that a number of mining share options were wiped totally clean for April. For instance the Barrick Gold calls are all gone and out of the money. You have to move up to May and further out to find lower priced calls in the money. And there aren't many of them.
HE>I