How does (should) PCGS CoinFacts, or any other price guide, account for outlier prices at auction?
RYK
Posts: 35,800 ✭✭✭✭✭
Let me give you a personal example, and perhaps the point of my question will be clear:
In the PCGS FUN sale, I paid well over established retail prices for the 1884-CC $20 PCGS XF-40 OGH/CAC Gold.
PCGS price guide for the issue is $2500, and CW Trends/Coin Values is $2750.
An extremely low end example that I discussed in another thread sold in the same sale for $2585. It had an ugly black mark, and the putty that had previously covered this was clumping on the surface.
I purchased my coin for $4259.
The 84-CC $20 regualrly trades in a variety of grades, both in auction and privately, with some regularity such that someone pulling data for a price guide might wisely conclude that the price I paid was an outlier, there were some "special attributes" of the coin and its packaging, and one idiot buyer should not influence price guide harmony that exists for the issue. Fair enough.
Let's take an issue in that same sale that is considerably more scarce but has similar attributes, this 1885-CC $20 PCGS AU-53 OGH/CAC Gold. The PCGS price guide says $11,000, the CV is a split price in 53 of $9750/$14,500 (50/55), and the coin sold for $14,100. Do price guide writers assume that the coin is valued at the next grade up? Do the change the value at the coin for this grade or the next grade (PCGS AU-55 is $13,000)? This issue is one of the scarcer CC $20's and does not change hands nearly as frequently as the 84-CC $20, so there are much fewer available data points. Is it possible to ignore this sale for price guide purposes, and if not, what grade and price should you assign?
I think that one must assume that the people who establish these price guides do not view every coin, may or may not be expert graders, and could not possibly consult with others in making each descision.
Finally, with the sale of Cardinal Collection and other coins in last week's Stack's auction, there were some major price losses and price gains that have already hit the PCGS price guide. I find it very interesting that the price guide will respond to these sales so quickly and establish new levels for coins that could, if auctioned tomorrow or sold privately tomorrow, likley would trade at a different level, maybe higher or lower.
At any rate, I find both the art and science of price guide maintenance to be fascinating. Any input from either amateur or professional price guide aficianados wouold be welcome.
In the PCGS FUN sale, I paid well over established retail prices for the 1884-CC $20 PCGS XF-40 OGH/CAC Gold.
PCGS price guide for the issue is $2500, and CW Trends/Coin Values is $2750.
An extremely low end example that I discussed in another thread sold in the same sale for $2585. It had an ugly black mark, and the putty that had previously covered this was clumping on the surface.
I purchased my coin for $4259.
The 84-CC $20 regualrly trades in a variety of grades, both in auction and privately, with some regularity such that someone pulling data for a price guide might wisely conclude that the price I paid was an outlier, there were some "special attributes" of the coin and its packaging, and one idiot buyer should not influence price guide harmony that exists for the issue. Fair enough.
Let's take an issue in that same sale that is considerably more scarce but has similar attributes, this 1885-CC $20 PCGS AU-53 OGH/CAC Gold. The PCGS price guide says $11,000, the CV is a split price in 53 of $9750/$14,500 (50/55), and the coin sold for $14,100. Do price guide writers assume that the coin is valued at the next grade up? Do the change the value at the coin for this grade or the next grade (PCGS AU-55 is $13,000)? This issue is one of the scarcer CC $20's and does not change hands nearly as frequently as the 84-CC $20, so there are much fewer available data points. Is it possible to ignore this sale for price guide purposes, and if not, what grade and price should you assign?
I think that one must assume that the people who establish these price guides do not view every coin, may or may not be expert graders, and could not possibly consult with others in making each descision.
Finally, with the sale of Cardinal Collection and other coins in last week's Stack's auction, there were some major price losses and price gains that have already hit the PCGS price guide. I find it very interesting that the price guide will respond to these sales so quickly and establish new levels for coins that could, if auctioned tomorrow or sold privately tomorrow, likley would trade at a different level, maybe higher or lower.
At any rate, I find both the art and science of price guide maintenance to be fascinating. Any input from either amateur or professional price guide aficianados wouold be welcome.
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Comments
If I were a collector going after CC gold (especially putting together a set) it would be the quality of the coin, not whether it was a bargain or not.
Show me a nice CC Double Eagle, thats a coin I would probably pay above price guide for.
Added that the price guide are supposed to be for correctly graded coin at the grade.
Coin Rarities Online
RYK,
Exactly! Just the points I was trying to make in a previous thread. Even more difficult to figure into price guides are private sales. I purchased a nice 30- S Lincoln in 67 RD, which is a pop 4 coin from a dealer. The price I paid was well north of the price guide, but quite less than previous auction sales. Thus, the price guide grossly underestimates the value in my opinion. I contacted PCGS and was informed that the private sale could be reported. I had the dealer verify the sale price with PCGS. Still no movement on the price guide. I am vexed by the same problem that you are. What rhyme or reason moves the price guide?
Jack
2) Toned and CAC gold stickered are obviously excluded.
Cashback from Mr. Rebates
False--one price result does not a price guide make-- Maybe it should be that way, but DH will increase the guides all the way to the actual moon result, in some cases.
It is usually a top or near top pop coin, but not necessarily. There may be 5 examples in the grade( like 66 RB), but the last price will hit the guides the next day.
This occurred for several of the large cents in the recent sale.
Absolute truth-- changes in the guides for rare coins are directly related to auction results, and private sales are way down the line.
Almost truth-- dealer ask prices are considered, when there is time for review.
Review assisted by PCGS board of experts-- I have no basis for knowing, but would like to think the experts are consulted--like JD, Ron Guth, Doug Winter,
Wondercoin, et cet.
It's a tough full time job, and DH loves it. We are all benefitted by his passion.
Interestingly enough, just took a look and saw that the price guide has already changed for the 1913 Lincoln I bought at auction just a few days ago. Still no movement on the 30-S. Go figure.
Jack