Corner the Market on Semi Keys

Georgems65 · January 28, 2013 12:44AM

While sitting around talking about winning the lottery and what we would do with the money, I thought to myself what would be the best thing to do investment wise. So I says self, pick 1 semi key coin like 1921 Mercury Dime and buy every last one that you can get your hands on. Over time supply goes down and demand goes up. Then cash in on the higher market value that is driven by you hoarding that date. My question is has this been done before in the past? Also do you think it would work?

BAJJERFAN · January 28, 2013 12:52AM

<< While sitting around talking about winning the lottery and what we would do with the money, I thought to myself what would be the best thing to do investment wise. So I says self, pick 1 semi key coin like 1921 Mercury Dime and buy every last one that you can get your hands on. Over time supply goes down and demand goes up. Then cash in on the higher market value that is driven by you hoarding that date. My question is has this been done before in the past? Also do you think it would work? >>

It is also possible that collectors may get discouraged by the scarcity of those dates and not have any interest atall an yew'd be stucked wif a buncha coins that nobody wants anymore. Hoard the really nice ones an fergit the junkers.

commoncents05 · January 28, 2013 12:56AM

This has been discussed here in the past, and it is a zero sum game. As you buy more, the supply dries up forcing you to pay more to acquire them. As you sell them, the supply increases driving the price back down.

-Paul

Walkerguy21D · January 28, 2013 1:01AM

Most 'semi keys' are probably a lot more plentiful than you may realize.....especially something like a 21P dime.
And a lot of people are probably willing to 'go without', especially nowadays.
I think it is done all the time - people have 'favorite dates'. I know two people hoarding 13S dimes, and I still see them for sale. Someone hoarded 1844 orphan annie dimes and dumped a bunch on th market a couple years ago. John Beck amassed quite a few of the 1856 flying eagle cents. Don't know if anyone has profited successfully from this endeavor, as you have to hold them a long time, hope the market increases, and then sell sparingly into the market.

rhedden · January 28, 2013 1:02AM

Has been done recently with 1804 quarters and 1844 dimes. Who knows how many other coins are being hoarded?

1921 Mercury dimes would be a real chore to buy up. There must be 100,000 of them or more in existence.

yellowkid · January 28, 2013 1:04AM

Kind of like putting it on a nag to win instead of covering the field, fuggedaboutit!

LindeDad · January 28, 2013 1:11AM

Why do you think they cost as much as they do now?

In other words most of them are in the hands of long term hoarders already.

Edit to add that I feel there are more key and semi key coins in dealers inventory than there are collectors that will need them to complete sets of them. In effect making dealers inventory's a mass hoard of them now.

mrearlygold · January 28, 2013 1:37AM

You're not the only person who has thought of doing that or actually tried it and quickly found out that the idea wasn't going to work out so good

But, if you decide to give it a whirl, don't forget to yell Germonimo!

OnlyGoldIsMoney · January 28, 2013 2:24AM

Cornering is not practical for a coin like the 1921 dime.

In my series some of the semi-key coins have PCGS populations of less than 30 and estimated known populations less that 60. Purchasing 30 examples would tie up a significant part of the surviving population. Not enough collectors care about those coins for one's efforts to make a difference. You would just be known as the person hoarding an obscure scarce issue.

guitarwes · January 28, 2013 2:33AM

<< My question is has this been done before in the past? >>

Yes, it's been tried.

<< Also do you think it would work? >>

nope

crypto79 · January 28, 2013 2:41AM

I think people are over looking some of the facts here. Let me start by saying that lots of people hoard keys and semi keys like the 21P dime or 38d Half but a signal collector isn't likely to be able to affect the price of such a common coin save for the dealer where he buys most of them.

That said lots of people pick a specific coin to purchase in quantity as part of there collecting habits, call it hoarding, "grading set", rolls or baulk are all terms for the same collecting strategy and lots and lots of collectors enjoy collecting this way. If you love a particular issue the more the merrier just don't expect to be a market maker/mover with out a huge bank roll and careful coin type selection

roadrunner · January 28, 2013 2:42AM

<< Cornering is not practical for a coin like the 1921 dime.

In my series some of the semi-key coins have PCGS populations of less than 30 and estimated known populations less that 60. Purchasing 30 examples would tie up a significant part of the surviving population. Not enough collectors care about those coins for one's efforts to make a difference. You would just be known as the person hoarding an obscure scarce issue. >>

Don't agree at all....at least not in my areas. I know there are collectors and dealers who hoarded semi-key dates in seated quarters (and dimes) in the 1970's, 1980's, and probably 1990's as well. The surviving pops of these were in the range of 75-250 pieces. A fairly substantial quantity. Enough collectors and speculators cared enough about these coins that prices are up 30-50X since the 1970's, 15-30X since the 1980's, and 5-10X since the 1990's. The 1844 dime was obviously not scarce enough to be worth hoarding imo. It was common enough in the 1970's. All it had going for it was a good story and a low mintage. Hoarding 20-50 pieces out of say 150 extant would be quite significant, especially if those 20 were problem free coins. In the case of seated coin I'd bet there are dozens of people who hoarded 5-10 specimens each of their favorite underpriced dates. The only question is how many of those mini-hoards remain intact today?

Broadstruck · January 28, 2013 2:57AM

<< You're not the only person who has thought of doing that or actually tried it and quickly found out that the idea wasn't going to work out so good

But, if you decide to give it a whirl, don't forget to yell Germonimo!

>>

Icollecteverything · January 28, 2013 3:03AM

I have wondered about this before, but you need a lot of money to actually do it. I also wondered if it may be illegal or at least unethical? I used to think about it with some of the three cent copper nickels, not the really rare ones but the low mintage (relatively) ones that actually circulated. Another idea was the GW 1982 Commem that used to sell new in box for like $5.00.

There was a guy that used to always have an ad in Coin World and he sold only one date of a bust half or dollar. That was the name of the company I think ! Something like "1810 Bust Dollar". I don't think he was trying to corner the market, he was just a specialist.

pruebas · January 28, 2013 3:07AM

Hoarding keys only works if demand remains constant or increases.

But decreasing supply can decrease demand. Why start a series you cannot complete due to cost or unavailability?

Billet7 · January 28, 2013 3:08AM

The only way to make it work is to artificially create an ultra rarity from an already rare coin by buying all the coins of a small run (say an 1872-S quarter or 1804 quarter) then destroying all but a handful. It wouldn't be guaranteed...but you might be able to sell the remaining coins for a HUGE sum. Obviously the idea is to recoup your costs, which would be staggering (hopefully you might also make a premium.) Anyone who happened to hold onto one of them would benefit very much. You also have to keep in mind that as you tuck them away, the premium will increase (so buy the highest grades first.)

You would also become a pariah in the coin collecting community for melting history...so maybe the bad press would destroy any chance of selling at huge premiums...I guarantee people down the line would eventually cash in on what would become one of the most sought after rarities of american coinage. The intrigue and publicity would follow the remaining coins for a VERY long time.

CoinRaritiesOnline · January 28, 2013 3:09AM

<< Over time supply goes down and demand goes up. Then cash in on the higher market value that is driven by you hoarding that date. >>

How exactly would you "cash in"?

renomedphys · January 28, 2013 3:12AM

<< 

<< Over time supply goes down and demand goes up. Then cash in on the higher market value that is driven by you hoarding that date. >>

How exactly would you "cash in"? >>

By selling them to the graysheet, of course!

Patches · January 28, 2013 4:13AM

just to play devil's advocate...what happens if the date you decide to do this with, somebody already did it. a joke the joker kind of thing

shorecoll · January 28, 2013 4:30AM

I think most keys and semi-keys have been done. No one appreciated it at the time, but you used to be able to buy roll sets of lincolns, mercs, etc. I've seen rolls of low-grade 16-D dimes, 1893-S morgans, etc. and I lived in a tiny town in the middle of nowhere. I'm sure those are all dispersed, but new ones exist. I met a guy several years ago who kept his IRA in slabbed keys, IHCs and other things.

Corner the Market on Semi Keys

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