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Wildly Toned Roanoke Brings $168,313 on eBay!
MrEureka
Posts: 24,412 ✭✭✭✭✭
At first, I thought I'd title this thread "Have David Hall, PCGS, NGC, the Pop Reports, the Auction Companies, Google & Laura Painted the Coin Market into a Deadly Corner?" But then I thought, who would want to read that? Better to look on the bright side of life. The silver lining of the cloud, so to speak.
When I grew up in the coin hobby/business - call it the early 70's to roughly the turn of the century - the overriding theme was to buy true quality and true rarity. Everything else was for the uneducated masses. The guppies. The fools. In other words, someone else.
But in the past 10-15 years, for reasons and in ways that we are all familiar with, almost everybody has learned that almost everything is crap. Very few coins are truly rare. Very few coins are truly "Best of Breed". Virtually nothing is worthy of virtually anyone's collection. Or "investment portfolio".
Prices reflect this now. So many coins have dropped to basal value. The few winners have soared to the moon. The right Roanoke really could bring six figures on the right day, but a gem can be had for less than $300. And a 1913 Liberty Nickel could bring eight figures today, but hardly anyone collects Liberty Nickels. Madness, but reality.
Now, I didn't just start this thread to state the obvious. And anyone that's been around for a while knows that everything I've said is obvious. I started this thread to ask, what will the market look like after this seemingly perpetual trend inevitably reverses? And what will "the break" look like? Is "true quality and true rarity" a bubble that will inevitably burst? Is there any potential in so-called "crap"? (And by "crap", I do not mean "dreck". Crap, unlike dreck, can be accurately graded. Even PQ. Even CAC'd. Crap is simply a coin that is no longer "investment quality". No longer "desirable". A connoisseur's distinction, to be sure, but valid nonetheless.)
It's nearing bedtime in Lisbon. Please share your positive and comforting thoughts, to help me sleep peacefully.
When I grew up in the coin hobby/business - call it the early 70's to roughly the turn of the century - the overriding theme was to buy true quality and true rarity. Everything else was for the uneducated masses. The guppies. The fools. In other words, someone else.
But in the past 10-15 years, for reasons and in ways that we are all familiar with, almost everybody has learned that almost everything is crap. Very few coins are truly rare. Very few coins are truly "Best of Breed". Virtually nothing is worthy of virtually anyone's collection. Or "investment portfolio".
Prices reflect this now. So many coins have dropped to basal value. The few winners have soared to the moon. The right Roanoke really could bring six figures on the right day, but a gem can be had for less than $300. And a 1913 Liberty Nickel could bring eight figures today, but hardly anyone collects Liberty Nickels. Madness, but reality.
Now, I didn't just start this thread to state the obvious. And anyone that's been around for a while knows that everything I've said is obvious. I started this thread to ask, what will the market look like after this seemingly perpetual trend inevitably reverses? And what will "the break" look like? Is "true quality and true rarity" a bubble that will inevitably burst? Is there any potential in so-called "crap"? (And by "crap", I do not mean "dreck". Crap, unlike dreck, can be accurately graded. Even PQ. Even CAC'd. Crap is simply a coin that is no longer "investment quality". No longer "desirable". A connoisseur's distinction, to be sure, but valid nonetheless.)
It's nearing bedtime in Lisbon. Please share your positive and comforting thoughts, to help me sleep peacefully.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
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Comments
id love to see a link.
This thread is worthless without a link!
See? Nobody doubts the sale price. What does that tell you?
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>id love to see a link.
This thread is worthless without a link!
See? Nobody doubts the sale price. What does that tell you? >>
That I have no idea what a colored Roanoke is worth...
Even with the fingerprint, I wouldn't call that coin "crap". "Dreck", yes. But not "crap".
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>When I grew up in the coin hobby/business - call it the early 70's to roughly the turn of the century - the overriding theme was to buy true quality and true rarity. Everything else was for the uneducated masses. The guppies. The fools. In other words, someone else.
But in the past 10-15 years, for reasons and in ways that we are all familiar with, almost everybody has learned that almost everything is crap. Very few coins are truly rare. Very few coins are truly "Best of Breed". Virtually nothing is worthy of virtually anyone's collection. >>
It seems like the theme has been, and still is, to buy true quality and true rarity. I don't think that's changed.
However, perhaps the uneducated masses are fewer in number, through a combination of education and economics. This can lead to bifurcation of the market as there are fewer guppies and fools that you describe.
I don't think "true quality and true rarity" is a bubble that will necessarily burst. It may be a natural evolution of the market which has already happened in other collectibles areas.
However, I do think there is potential in so-called crap, especially from the PM perspective.
<< <i>At first, I thought I'd title this thread "Have David Hall, PCGS, NGC, the Pop Reports, the Auction Companies, Google & Laura Painted the Coin Market into a Deadly Corner?" >>
If you'd feel better thinking someone has "Painted the Coin Market into a Deadly Corner," I'd be more concerned about the economy and the middle class than those trying to bring more honesty to the hobby.
Thanks for the concise summary of the past ten years of this forum.
Check out some of my 1794 Large Cents on www.coingallery.org
As a result of how humans are designed (by a Creator or alternatively by random chance depending on your point of view) to function and operate from conception to death physically, biologically, mentally, emotionally, psychologically, spiritually, etc. within the environment/biosphere that is the earth, both alone and with others. In addition to this inherent built in "design", humans also "learn" from their experiences during their lives and this learning has an impact/effect on how they function and operate.
In large part the functioning and operation of humans (singularly and in groups) takes place within parameters or boundaries. As long as these parameters and boundaries are observed and not exceeded, humans live under circumstances that are generally stable, prosperous and positive. It is only when the parameters and boundaries are not observed and are exceeded that the circumstances become unstable, ruinous and negative. An example is alcohol. An occasional drink is ok, does not hurt anyone and may even have health benefits. Excessive drinking is ruinous to the drinker, his/her family and others they are around. If a person (or groups of persons) drink(s) to excess and go beyond the parameters and boundaries that are present, then one of two things will happen. The person (or group) will either self destruct and die off or will eventually learn that he/they must cut back on the drinking and operate within the parameters and boundaries.
One aspect of human nature is the desire to "be better" than others. This can manifest itself in wanting to have the best of the best, regardless of what specific thing you are talking about (i.e. most rare and most valuable coin; most gorgeous, handsome, accomplished, educated or rich wife or husband or child; biggest home; fanciest car; newest electronic device, etc.). The desire to be better and to acquire and have something which is perceived to be better causes people who have no control over such a desire to seek out the best. They compete with each other for whatever is the best (even though second best may be perfectly fine, for example an Iphone 4 vs. the newly released Iphone 5).
In coins, if Matte Proof Lincolns are the "hottest thing" and people flock to that area, price increases take place and the available supply on the market is bought up. People who want the best of the best in the hottest thing but do not have them may devote time and effort to get what they want and eventually obtain 5 gem 1909 VDB Matte Proof Cents grading 65 or 66. But they are aware of the existence of the one or two 67's out there. They want a 67 and even want the best 67. After not being able to get a 67 or the best 67, they look at the 65's and 66's they have and get dissatisfied (even though these coins may be off the charts with eye appeal) because in their mind(s) what they have is not the best (and to have a satisfied ego they simply will accept nothing less than the best, which is a 67). Thus they begin to look down upon the 65's and 66's that they have. If you get enough collectors of Matte Proof Lincolns to think this way ("anything less than the best of the TOP POP coins is simply not acceptable to me"), you will find that the collectors who are unsuccessful in obtaining the best will lose interest and turn either to another coin series or to an area outside of coins where they can have a chance of obtaining "the best". Before these collectors lose interest and go elsewhere, the market for MPL's may fragment into one such as what you describe (only the TOP POP's sell for large prices and the second and lower tier coins languish selling for a pittance or not at all).
I would say that this conduct by collectors would be outside of the parameters and boundaries. It will not last. These collectors will either self destruct (leave the hobby all together) or learn and retrench, pulling back to operate within the parameters and boundaries. Those collectors of MPLs who do not self destruct will continue to play and collect in this area of the hobby and the market will change with all MPLs being bought and sold at whatever the current market value is.
If the above conduct became something that effected collectors, dealers, investors and other hobby participants hobby wide and if they all self destructed, then the hobby would die.
However, the hobby has not died. For some reason it continues generation after generation. It grows within the USA and outside the USA. I suspect that some but not all numismatists who go down the road of "I will only accept the best of the best and all else is garbage" will self destruct when they are outside of the parameters and boundaries. Those who do not self destruct will retrench and pull back. Other numismatists will never operate outside of the parameters and boundaries because they do not have the need to have the best. They participate in the hobby for reasons totally unrelated to ego, keeping up with the Joneses (and beating the Joneses) and obtaining the approval and adulation of others. These numismatists will be around to keep the hobby alive and well.
When humans go beyond the parameters and boundaries that encircle a healthy and functioning society, something kicks in to self correct and to put things back into balance and away from self destruction. This happens in all fields of human activity and there is no reason to not expect it to happen in the field on coin collecting.
<< <i>Human nature is the root cause of what you describe....... >>
if you write a great book, you must include a good portion of this as it does not seem to occur to a large portion of the population and thusly doesn't go without saying, so ty for saying it!
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<< <i>id love to see a link.
This thread is worthless without a link!
See? Nobody doubts the sale price. What does that tell you? >>
That's because a raw white Antietam did sell on eBay for a $109K plus change once.
<< <i>Prices reflect this now. So many coins have dropped to basal value. >>
Really? How come I haven’t seen prices retreating to the levels of 10 years ago? Or is the current market establishing a new “basal value”?
I will observe that I do not understand how the massive number of coins that have come on to the market in recent years have been absorbed, and how new offerings are still finding buyers often at prices that seem strong for a market that t is supposed to be “dead” for anything that is not a “cover of the catalog” coin.
CG
<< <i>Rarity never goes out of style. >>
I love quality, but absolute rarity is the key, not condition rarity, but total population in all grades.
I firmly believe in numismatics as the world's greatest hobby, but recognize that this is a luxury and without collectors, we can all spend/melt our collections/inventories.
eBaystore
(Just think of city streets clogged with a hundred thousand horses each generating 15 lbs of manure every day...)
<< <i>
<< <i>Rarity never goes out of style. >>
I love quality, but absolute rarity is the key, not condition rarity, but total population in all grades. >>
Not these days. A low end 1885 trade dollar is being eclipsed by a high end pop 1/0 fluer d coin of an esoteric early date.
Another mistake people made was buying same grade coins for the same price from price guides but the quality didn't match........as they would learn later which meant that not only did they overpay but for a inferior coin.
Did I mention this other fact about the US Mint.............they also made coins for circulation.
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection