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Legend Market Report: Long Beach

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  • ZoinsZoins Posts: 34,401 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I'm not a coin dealer. Neither, presumably is "Simpson" or others that do buy million+ coins. >>



    Bob Simpson, Co-Chairman of the Texas Rangers, is well-known in collecting circles. There's no reason to put his name in quotes or guess as to his dealer status.


  • << <i>

    << <i>I'm not a coin dealer. Neither, presumably is "Simpson" or others that do buy million+ coins. >>



    Bob Simpson, Co-Chairman of the Texas Rangers, is well-known in collecting circles. There's no reason to put his name in quotes or guess as to his dealer status. >>



    I'm sorry image I was just stating, with example, that coin "collecting" is about enjoyment, and for most not about income.

    Job = income
    coins = fun

    Is that better? image
  • ZoinsZoins Posts: 34,401 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>I'm not a coin dealer. Neither, presumably is "Simpson" or others that do buy million+ coins. >>



    Bob Simpson, Co-Chairman of the Texas Rangers, is well-known in collecting circles. There's no reason to put his name in quotes or guess as to his dealer status. >>



    I'm sorry image I was just stating, with example, that coin "collecting" is about enjoyment, and for most not about income.

    Job = income
    coins = fun

    Is that better? image >>



    Yes image

    And I agree on the basic premise. You don't assemble a collection like this by being a stickler on price.

    That being said, I don't think many people like to lose a lot of money collecting either.
  • I agree, no one likes anything associated with the word "lose". "lose" + "cash" and pretty much everyone is upset now image

    But for me, I would prefer to lose cash on a few sales to enjoy having the set that I have!
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,313 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I was merely pointing out that most people would see a gigantic stack of gold coins on one side and a solitary coin on the other with the exact same appearance and wonder what the heck is going on here. It simply defies logic to the masses that the value is equal and one could argue that the PCGS-65 Saints are a much better deal as they once traded nearly twice as high as they sell for now yet gold was priced much lower when they were priced that high.

    One must factor this things into the equation before making this comparison:

    1. In 1990 there were only 4000 MS65 saints in PCGS holders, 6% of what is around today. That's half of the reason they went to $4,000. The other half is that 5% of the saints
    made 65 grade. Today it's 12%.
    2. Any MS65 from 1990 would kick the snot out of a 65 today and many of the 66's. Very few 66's and 67's were made back then.
    3. Grading standards in 65-66 saints slipped tremendously from 1998-2008, in essence making them nothing more than glorified 64+ coins...unless stickered.
    4. Because of #3, generic MS65 saints don't cost a lot more than 61's to 64's. All of them are not far from bullion price.
    5. As gold has rallied in price from $252 to $1922 it has swallowed up the premiums offered by many so-called scarce dates as well as scarcer type coins. This
    has basically turned the gem $20 Saint into a hunk of gold. If gold gets to $3K you may see the current generic MS65 premium of around 25%, shrink to 5-10%.
    6. You could find 3700 "generic" MS65 saints fairly easily over a period of weeks or months. That would not be the case for stickered specimens.
    7. During the gold peaks in 2006 ($735) and 2008 ($1033), an MS65 saint brought a 60-80% premium over an MS64. At today's $1730 gold that premium is 10-15%. Do the math.

    I'd also prefer the 3700 MS65 saints to a 1933 saint, esp. in the current world environment. Much more liquid and easy to value at any hour of the day. But I'd prefer that
    those MS65 saints be solid for the grade which would make the task 5X harder. The 1933 Saint isn't worth $7.6 MILL anymore either, not with 10 others now running around.

    For giggles here are the PCGS "with motto" MS Saint pops as of June 1st 1989. That's not too far from when the market peaked, especially for gold coins.
    This will take the Wells Fargo hoard out of the equation.

    June 1989 MS64 15,500 MS65 4,078 MS66 217 MS67 10 (out of 83K mint state 60-68 coins graded)
    July 2007 MS64 138,681 MS65 63,949 MS66 16,606 MS67 253 (out of 519K mint state coins graded)....see any trends?

    There is no doubt some duplication in these numbers due to resubmissions. That would not make these percentages look like 1989 again.
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • Gee Roadrunner, now that you've shown me the "gradeflation" I guess we really can call them "Widgets".image

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