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Enough Foresight - Lets try Hindsight
tneig
Posts: 1,505 ✭✭✭
Ok, so we all have different thoughts and opinions about upcoming Silver $. Is it flat, will it go up, how far will it go, will it decouple... blah!
-----How about something past that's had time to digest...---
What the heck drove Silver on its unusual climb from (Aug 2010 $18 to April 2011 $45)?
(It's a year~ later and it hasn't been able to sustain that level, so was as it real, or hype?)
--I personally think we're lucky it sort of stabilized from its drop...--
-----How about something past that's had time to digest...---
What the heck drove Silver on its unusual climb from (Aug 2010 $18 to April 2011 $45)?
(It's a year~ later and it hasn't been able to sustain that level, so was as it real, or hype?)
--I personally think we're lucky it sort of stabilized from its drop...--
COA
0
Comments
Greed
"I don't wan't to be left behind"
The die hard PM Bulls
Underlying Fundamentals
Safe Haven
Alternative way to Hold Money or Assets
Media Attention, The next best Investment Message
Gold and Silver Company Advertisers
TV Hocking
All the above combined and I'm sure I left out at least a few. ......... Now lets get this Silver Bull Running Again Already!!!
More buyers than sellers.
Why were there more buyers than sellers? Hype, fear, panic, greed. Basically human emotion. Certainly not fundamentals--for if it was fundamentals then what about them changed? Nothing, most would say. So if fundamentals didnt change, then why did the price more than double then drop 50%?
You see, the only "fundamental" PMs have are us with our beliefs and emotions.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>What the heck drove Silver on its unusual climb from (Aug 2010 $18 to April 2011 $45)?
More buyers than sellers.
Why were there more buyers than sellers? Hype, fear, panic, greed. Basically human emotion. Certainly not fundamentals--for if it was fundamentals then what about them changed? Nothing, most would say. So if fundamentals didnt change, then why did the price more than double then drop 50%?
You see, the only "fundamental" PMs have are us with our beliefs and emotions. >>
as an absolute I agree but as a part I disagree. The fundamentals help provide a portion of the confidence, a degree of the greed and support for advertising broadcasts. It hasn't changed much but on its own it can not compete with Fear. Are you a pure chartist/technicals only trader/investor?
Fundamentals and technicals play an equal role in my analysis. That said, some of my worse trades have been with "value or fundamentally strong" companies" and I've made some great trades on Ponzi scheme type POS's.
Sometimes it doesnt matter whether a company makes computer chips or cow chips, if there is buying pressure then it will go higher.
What really gets me with the comments on this board is the incessant belief that if gold or silver go lower then it is solely due to the "evil banksters in their attempt to fleece the sheeple". Comments like this are dripping with emotion, and emotion always clouds judgement. People start to lose money on an investment and they begin to feel betrayed or cheated or that the "game is rigged". This mentallity is all propagated from political correctness as it attempts to push blame onto others. It diminishes or eliminates personal responsibility.
There has been no change in the "fundamentals" for silver. Perhaps they have even gotten stronger, yet its value dropped 50%--even more vs other commodities such as wheat, cattle and pork bellies. So much for a "store of value" when one wants to eat.
So what was the reason for the big rally then selloff? The answer is simple. More buyers than sellers, then more sellers than buyers. Now before everyone jumps and says "people are still buying", they must know that it could take for example 10 million oz of buying to push the price up $5, but only 1 million oz of selling to drop it $5. Im just making up these numbers, but want to illustrate that rarely does equal amounts of buying and selling translate into equal price movement. Just look at stock prices--usually more volume in uptrends than downtrends.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
This is not new information.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Numbers,
Fundamentals and technicals play an equal role in my analysis. That said, some of my worse trades have been with "value or fundamentally strong" companies" and I've made some great trades on Ponzi scheme type POS's.
Sometimes it doesnt matter whether a company makes computer chips or cow chips, if there is buying pressure then it will go higher.
What really gets me with the comments on this board is the incessant belief that if gold or silver go lower then it is solely due to the "evil banksters in their attempt to fleece the sheeple". Comments like this are dripping with emotion, and emotion always clouds judgement. People start to lose money on an investment and they begin to feel betrayed or cheated or that the "game is rigged". This mentallity is all propagated from political correctness as it attempts to push blame onto others. It diminishes or eliminates personal responsibility.
There has been no change in the "fundamentals" for silver. Perhaps they have even gotten stronger, yet its value dropped 50%--even more vs other commodities such as wheat, cattle and pork bellies. So much for a "store of value" when one wants to eat.
So what was the reason for the big rally then selloff? The answer is simple. More buyers than sellers, then more sellers than buyers. Now before everyone jumps and says "people are still buying", they must know that it could take for example 10 million oz of buying to push the price up $5, but only 1 million oz of selling to drop it $5. Im just making up these numbers, but want to illustrate that rarely does equal amounts of buying and selling translate into equal price movement. Just look at stock prices--usually more volume in uptrends than downtrends. >>
Using both works for me in that if an uptrend seems to establishing its self but the fundamentals are weak then its a more cautionary trade. On the other hand if the uptrend is developing and the fundamentals are also strong then I'm more inclined to more fully commit. The idea of manipulation does seem to have its credentials in order to a reasonable degree. There are ongoing investigations and pressures to investigate backed by some seeming credible assertions. The fact that investigations are actually taking place lend another aspect of repect for the allegations. For the participants to actually pick up that ball and start running with it at all is an indication that they can not with impunity flat out (credibly) deny or cast off as ridiculous the allegations being presented. As my GrandPa always said " We will just wait and see"
<< <i>There has been no change in the "fundamentals" for silver. Perhaps they have even gotten stronger, yet its value dropped 50%--even more vs other commodities such as wheat, cattle and pork bellies. So much for a "store of value" when one wants to eat. >>
Thanks for making the case for price manipulation.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
<< <i>
<< <i>There has been no change in the "fundamentals" for silver. Perhaps they have even gotten stronger, yet its value dropped 50%--even more vs other commodities such as wheat, cattle and pork bellies. So much for a "store of value" when one wants to eat. >>
Thanks for making the case for price manipulation. >>
derryb, you really should pay more attention to your sigline.
Are you saying the evil banksters manipulated silver higher from 18 to 49?
Typical human response to something they dont understand is to shout "manipulation". You lost 1/2 your retirement account so you blame the evil banksters. Sorry for your loss, but you need to take personal responsibility. Good luck with your recent "all in" long trade. And if it goes up, make sure to give the manipulators proper credit.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>There has been no change in the "fundamentals" for silver. Perhaps they have even gotten stronger, yet its value dropped 50%--even more vs other commodities such as wheat, cattle and pork bellies. So much for a "store of value" when one wants to eat. >>
Thanks for making the case for price manipulation. >>
derryb, you really should pay more attention to your sigline.
Are you saying the evil banksters manipulated silver higher from 18 to 49?
Typical human response to something they dont understand is to shout "manipulation". You lost 1/2 your retirement account so you blame the evil banksters. Sorry for your loss, but you need to take personal responsibility. Good luck with your recent "all in" long trade. And if it goes up, make sure to give the manipulators proper credit. >>
Just because one acknowledges and discusses the manipulation does not mean one is crying about manipulation.
retirement accounts are in great shape, continue to profit. As long as one has the knowledge of the manipulation one can play the paper ups and downs. Money can be made in both directions. My warnings of manipulation are for those that need to be aware that metals face artificial resistance. Once aware, one can profit with the paper. I prefer the naked shorting/manipulation - more money can be made with the volatility if one understands it and knows how to recognize its triggers.
Climb to $49 was a temporary reprieve from the naked shorting, just to lull in more suckers. Made money on the way up, made more on the way down. I wouldn't have it any other way. The purely physical stackers however, need to know all the fundamentals, including the routine manipulation. I'll say it again, anyone who studies this market and can't see the manipulation has their head in the sand.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
If you have the backing to make the double play buy/sell orders on, let's say, 60% of the daily trading market on the comex et-all you are driving the price wherever you need it to be to make money. A piddly 50k in an etf trying to make moves is just trying to stay on top of the waves the big boys make. Collusion is collusion, wether by algorithm or human, and if they do it for libor I would hard pressed to believe they wouldn't do it on the comex.
Box of 20
Just like "artificial demand"---it doesnt exist.
Oh well, I am sensing an "education" coming.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Hindsight: shoulda traded more silver for gold last year. Oh well.
<< <i>Just busting chops coho!
Hindsight: shoulda traded more silver for gold last year. Oh well. >>
I hear ya Dr.
Luckily a few board members did ask me about switching from silver to gold last Spring. They made the right move.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear