Can extreme rarity in some cases hurt the value or marketability of a coin?

desslok

I've been thinking of something lately, in light of the recent "post your R7 or rarer" thread.

Some items are so rare that even the collectors population is unaware of them. I would hazard a guess that most of the items on the "R7 or rarer" thread are unknown to be rare for anyone on this board except the person who posted them. In many cases, auction records are few and far between. Now if a super-rare item comes up for sale, but very few people ever heard of it, and there are no pricing references, could it be that the item would actually be a much tougher sell compared to a more common, better well-known piece with an established record?

MrEureka

No. If an obscure rarity brings a low price, it's probably more a function of who's collecting that sort of thing and what they're used to paying for other rarities in their field.

For example, find a previously unknown rarity like an 1870-S Half Dime and you'll get big money because there are lots of buyers for major US rarities at big numbers. Fine a previously unknown subway token and you will not get rich.

ormandh

It depends on the issue the rarity falls into. For instance, there may be 1 of 1 of a trial strike or other like coin that has no provenance and cannot be proven to be a legitimate piece, so to speak. You will find that there will not be anyone willing to pay any good money for this rarity, simply because there is no history However, in some instances if a coin falls into a category that has examples to compare to and it is a very popular coin, then it will go for more money. You have to also consider what the collector base of the coin is. Rarity is only a number. The other side of the equation is how many collectors are actively pursuing said piece. I have owned many rare types with very low mintages, only to find that there were not any buyers for the issue. The old adage goes that a coin can be rare, but the collectors are rarer.

Nap

Sure.
It's hard to market a rarity that nobody's ever heard of.
Among ancient and medieval coins, new types are frequently viewed with suspicion as possibly modern fabrications. And there are plenty of modern fakes. This doesn't always hurt the price if at least two well heeled collectors believe it to be real, but it potentially can.
Additionally it's hard to come up with an estimate on what a coin should sell for, if there is no price history. Some extreme rarities change hands a few times with considerable price fluctuation (up or down) before a baseline "market value" can be established.

Sapyx

Yes, particularly for coin types that might only come up on the market once or twice a century. If the last time a coin like that sold was in an auction in 1980, or 1947, how on Earth do you extrapolate a current price?

Another factor is whether the coin is listed in the catalogues that people who collect that series use. I own a world coin that is not listed in the Krause catalogues: the Polish-German Regency 1917 1 fenig; you can read about it in this old thread I posted here not long after I joined the forum, twelve years ago. These coins were apparently struck, but most were lost when the Stuttgart mint building burned to the ground; only a few were scraped out of the ashes. The coin is listed in the Schon German-language world coin catalogue and other specialist German and Polish catalogues, which value it at hundreds of euros, so German and European collectors are aware of its existence, but English-speaking collectors are not. I bought the coin for $2 from a local dealer here in Australia who did not realise what it was, but because it's not listed in Krause, I'd have trouble getting anywhere near it's "true value" if I sold it locally.

coinkat

Yes. And the reason in my mind and from personal experience is obvious... There is simply no incentive to market such a coin because there are simply not enough of them.

Abuelo

In my experience every time that an extreme rarity comes out for auction, bidding is very strong. So I tend to agree with @MrEureka .

MrEureka

@coinkat said:
Yes. And the reason in my mind and from personal experience is obvious... There is simply no incentive to market such a coin because there are simply not enough of them.

The problem with your coin is that it is completely off the radar for non-specialists, and the specialists in this series are not in the habit of paying a lot of money for their coins. It will probably remain so until more is learned about the history of the coin, and until enough time has passed to confirm its rarity. (I haven't said what the coin is because it's not my place, but I hope you will, to illustrate my point.)

Zoins

Extreme rarity can help the value or marketability of a coin or other rarity, but education must be done for the market to be aware and appreciative of it.

Many rare coins have articles written about them before and after auctions and the great ones have 4K YouTube videos now.

For an extreme rarity where the rarity helped the value, see this $450 million painting. Of course, there was a marketing campaign to go with this as well.

https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/comment/11846400/p1

coinkat

I was thinking of the 1697 Crown. I suspect the surviving population could make it close to an R 7 and the last two I saw where actually the same coin appearing in different holders... I am not sure there is interest in a date set of William III Crowns. And I suppose the same could be said for George I and George II but don't think I would put those individual dates to the series in an R7 range unless we are moving into condition rarity with uncirculated examples as the minimum grade.

It all boils down what the coin is and what the demand is for the country and series. In some instances, the coin or series may already have a cult following so marketing is just not as important.

ormandh

One can never make sense of what will or will not be collectible in the future. If anyone had the foresight to scoop them up when they could for future profits later, then this would be a moot question. Although, I fully agree with the op that it makes sense to buy "R7 or rarer" coins for the future. However, it just simply does not work this way. You still have to have a collector's base. But eventually, with a little patience and common knowledge, one day the issue will make a showing when you least expect it! Or not!

savitale

@desslok said:
Now if a super-rare item comes up for sale, but very few people ever heard of it, and there are no pricing references, could it be that the item would actually be a much tougher sell compared to a more common, better well-known piece with an established record?

It simply depends on how much money those few people have, and how much they want it. There was no price reference for the recently sold DaVinci painting. But there were two people with a LOT of money who wanted it. If there are two billionaires out there collecting William III Crowns, I strongly suggest you pick up a 1697 if you have the oppportunity.

MrEureka

@coinkat said:
I was thinking of the 1697 Crown. I suspect the surviving population could make it close to an R 7 and the last two I saw where actually the same coin appearing in different holders... I am not sure there is interest in a date set of William III Crowns. And I suppose the same could be said for George I and George II but don't think I would put those individual dates to the series in an R7 range unless we are moving into condition rarity with uncirculated examples as the minimum grade.

It all boils down what the coin is and what the demand is for the country and series. In some instances, the coin or series may already have a cult following so marketing is just not as important.

Not the coin I was thinking of, but interesting! The 1697 was definitely off MY radar. I just did a few quick searches and found perhaps a half dozen auction records. That makes R7 sound unlikely, but R6 is a definite possibility.

Here's the best I found:

coinkat

The finest 1697 Crown that I am aware of was graded AU58 by NGC. And that was auctioned years ago. I thought it brought about $24K then. The coin you pictured has an amazing strike and is likely the NGC coin I am thinking of. If this were a US coin, I believe it would fetch a far greater sum- probably $350K to $400K Thanks for posting the image

bosox

I have a few esoteric Canadian rarities (R6 & up) and I have always thought that it would be silly just to put them in an auction. Even though these coins have credibility through Charlton and other literature, demand is very thin. For these coins, I have always expected that I would have to wait to sell them until another collector, or better yet two, got interested in them. The Canadian collecting community is small enough that I should know when that happens. The bottom line is I probably won't sell them at a time when I want, but rather when the demand appears.

On the other hand, I probably could throw my 1859 brass cent into any auction and do quite well. These have become much more mainstream than the rarer specimens, patterns and trial pieces.

So, in answer to the OP, I think it depends upon the coin. Just my two Victorian cents worth.

7Jaguars

Actually I agree with regards to some aspects. Some really have not been trumpeted a lot, and even though they are a recognized series just haven't caught on.
I can cite one example even at this early hour: the currency 1945 silver threepence of Great Britain.
This coin is thought to be represented by but a single specimen, but I have not seen anything written on it for at least 10 years, and then only fleetingly. So in a British series that is well recognized is a prime rarity that is much scarcer than the 1933 penny, or virtually ANY US coin as would go without saying and yet is just IMO too obscure (BTW not my coin! LOL).