Back to the hobby and need some help!
Jimmy_Commonpants
Posts: 386 ✭✭✭
Hello fellow collectors,
I have been out of the hobby for quite come time and have spent the last month doing a little research on the current state of the sports card market, professional grading, auctions, internet dealers and the like. I was hoping someone can shed a little light on something for me. I apologize for the length...
A little background:
I was very heavily into the hobby/market from 1991 to 1996 and then got out completely due to numerous reasons including diminished interest and a failing "market". I was in high school and college at this time but was able to put together a pretty respectable collection. I collated complete 86-87 and 87-88 Fleer Basketball sets, started a 1973 Topps Baseball set, purchased many vintage baseball stars and HOFers, was an avid collector of Kirby Puckett, NY Mets players and former college athletes from the State of Florida schools.
Between 1993 and 1995, I acquired 13 of the 19 regular issue Topps Roberto Clemente cards. Can't tell you why I started buying Clemente, but I did. I am short the following years: 1955, 1958, 1961, 1963, 1964 and 1971. Never was in the market for the 1955 and never saw the others(except a 1971, believe I saw one and didn't buy it). I am not really an active collector, but I was planning on selling a few lots of lower-valued cards I have, and was thinking of taking that money and finishing some of my Clemente collection.
Here's my question:
I come from the days of "what does Beckett say?" in response to "what do you want for this card?" I understand that today professional grading, especially that done by PSA, is kind of the standard to get the most for your cards. No problem. But "back in the day", you'd be hard pressed to find someone asking more than "Beckett high book" value, and if you did, you'd laugh at them. Now back then, you only had usenet groups in the early to mid 90's to trade online, so there was no ebay, amazon or the various other services, so I don't know what has happened over the past 20 years with the proliferation of the internet and how it has affected the hobby/pricing. So, I go to amazon and ebay to see if these Clemente cards are available, and what I find is this: Virtually every seller is asking substantially more than the corresponding price on PSA's price guide(I looked up other players/sports and found similar results). If it graded a 5, the seller wants the price a 6 is listed at. If its a 6, the seller wants the 7 or 8 price. In some cases, its just 15%-25% more than what PSA lists for that grade. In one case, a seller is asking 10x the price for a 1971 Clemente(PSA lists it at $85 in the condition and he wants over $800, makes no sense). Ok, I realize its a free country and anyone can ask any price, but this just doesn't make sense. Are these sellers simply expecting gullible or naïve people who can't look-up a price to pay too much? Are they trying to tack on all the fees(grading, two-way shipping, insurance, seller's fee, etc..) as if they are entitled to repayment from the buyer? Shop owners didn't try to tack their rent or utility payment onto the price back then, so I'm at a loss here.
So, if ebay and amazon are full of sellers hoping for those who don't know what they are doing, where could I find these cards online offered by legitimate sellers? Is it even worth trying to contact the ebay/amazon sellers and offering a reasonable price? I'm not against paying slightly more than "book", but when you are already paying "higher" for a graded card, I am not inclined to pay much more than what PSA is reporting that grade card trades at. We don't get shows in my city anymore and the closest ones are at least a three hour drive. There is one local shop with limited hours and a guy at the local flea market on Saturday. I don't have many local options.
My area of study in college was Marketing and Real Estate, so I am pretty familiar with everything to do with the concepts of selling/sales and the unfortunate prevalence of fraud/deception in markets for everything from collectables to real estate. Some of this "market activity" I have read about in these forums is eerily similar to the 2002-2007 Florida coastal real estate market, but that's a discussion for another time.
If anyone can shed some light on this, it would be much appreciated. Thanks!
I actively collect Kirby Puckett. I have collections of Michael Jordan, Emmitt Smith, Roberto Clemente, Dwight Gooden, Tom Seaver, Errict Rhett and Evan Longoria.
Answers
Hello and welcome.
The PSA price guide is totally useless. If you look closely it even admits it. How else can you explain that it will show X card sold for $3k in 2017 but they put its value at $750. Personally for vintage pricing I use VCP (www.vintagecardprices.com). It shows all sales on eBay and most major auction houses. It is a pay service but you can pay one month at a time so for $15 you can get a glimpse of actual sale prices.
Your other option is to use finished eBay sales as your guide. Best offer results won't show so you'll need to use www.watchcount.com to figure out those. More work but it is free.
I'm sure you'll get more ideas from other members here. Again welcome back and good luck.
Kevin
Kevin
First, welcome to the Forum. Your story is very familiar to many collectors out there. I hear it all the time that collectors fell away from the love of collecting. They fell out of love with collecting because of college and the financial loss from their "card investment". Many of these collectors collected from 1987-1996 which was probably the worst era for "losing your shirt". Every house and every storage facility in America has 1988 Donruss and Topps cards. The average collector has nothing to show for their collection and that investment. Pretty crappy feeling when you have a Wally Joyner, Palmiero and Dean Palmer collection and not one card shop in the world would give you a buck for it.
On the flip side, you reenter the card market seeing dealers offer up a $3000 Mantle card in Beckett for $6500. Now you are really pissed because not only can you not sell the Palmer rookie for $1 like Beckett says but some jackass dealer has his card at 210% of BV. Nothing really makes much sense to these type of collectors. Well the market has changed and in a very big way. Every collector on this forum has evolved from a novice collector. Not one of us here started collecting 1954 Stahl Meyer sets when we entered into the card collecting. Not many can say they have not regretted a purchase or got duped on eBay.
In closing, do your research on what cards or sets you like and how difficult will it be to complete it. Many collectors make the decision to not collect a set because they will get board or it will be too costly. These are the sets to collect so you have value in the end.
Another thing. Beckett = worthless. PSA price guide = worthless. VCP = worthless.
People might argue that VCP is not worthless, it shows prior sales. Correct, but when prior sales are being manipulated on eBay by seller and bidders (PWCC) and many others. Dealers start to price their cards higher than what it is worth because of VCP and buyers start overpaying for cards that are according to VCP. All three are guides so use them for that for informational purposes and not the gospel.
Shane
Welcome. There's at least a few reasons why you'll see some really high prices on ebay.
Hmmm. First you said they're worthless, and then you said they have purposes.
Tell me about it. When I quit, the atmosphere was as such:
The general consensus was that the "proliferation of inserts" destroyed the hobby for several reasons, one of which it was now virtually impossible to collect all the cards of your favorite player because there were so many, some of which would be very limited(and therefore too costly)
There was NO market for vintage singles(with exception to Mantle). Shops that had opened @ 1990 closed in 1996 with the same vintage cards in their cases. Around 1995, most stores stopped buying or trading for anything vintage and most cards could be bought for 30%-50% high book. This makes it particularly head scratching to see people supposedly paying outrageous prices today, even for cards in excellent to ex-mt condition.
"Professional grading" was looked upon with "suspicion" by many people, and its eventual acceptance pushed out most dinosaurs like me who were unwilling to get involved.
This is why I thought to myself, "with exception to the 1955, I can probably pick up these in decent condition for a few hundred bucks total". Imagine my surprise when I looked into asking prices. But it still doesn't appear that there is high demand. Any card I search for, there are what I would call "plenty" available. I'll even point this out for cards that I own like the 86 Jordan or 84 Fleer Update Clemens - PSA's Pop Report says they have graded 16,000 Jordans and nearly 5,000 of the Clemens(and there are obviously thousands of ungraded cards). Those aren't "rare" by any stretch of the imagination and there are likely a hundred 86 Jordans available at any given time. The prices make no sense to me.
Did I simply experience a more "local" occurrence? Did the vintage market really come back(it just doesn't appear there is actually high demand when you see how many of any card is available)?
I actively collect Kirby Puckett. I have collections of Michael Jordan, Emmitt Smith, Roberto Clemente, Dwight Gooden, Tom Seaver, Errict Rhett and Evan Longoria.
Rarity is only part of the equation. And you can't see the demand just by looking at the supply.
As has been said above, Beckett can be used for information, but in my opinion, the pricing in it is completely a joke. Not even close to realistic. As for the SMR, it is equally as useless in terms of pricing. The best way to find what something sells for is ebay or some other verifiable source of prices and see what stuff is actually SELLING for, not what is being ASKED.
Keep in mind that if everyone used past sales as a complete end all/be all price comparison, nothing would ever go up or down. However, it is a start. You then have to factor in grade or condition (if raw), eye appeal, rarity, etc.
Demand is worldwide for the Jordan card and there is actually a very active basketball card market (especially for new material) in Taiwan, The Philippines and China ( and to some extent South Korea, Japan and Thailand), which supports that price.
Most Ebay sellers will accept market price offers even thought they list at above retail on the cards you are looking for. BST forum here is a good place to post your want list as well.
saucywombat@hotmail.com
I'm a VintageCardPrices.com fan. (VCP) They give you a idea of what a card has sold on Ebay and other auction sites over the last couple years. its not the gospel but the deeper you get into the site the more information you can get regarding the past prices for a particular card. They also show you a image of the actual card that sold so you can compare the quality,centering,ect of different cards in the same grade.Check it out and determine for yourself
I look at prior eBay sales. I will even advise a seller of prior eBay sales for my buy-it-now offers. Often helps convince the sellers to accept my offers.
Thanks for the info. The first time I looked into "current prices" since my departure from the hobby was like 2009. Back then, I realized Clemente, Mantle and a few others appeared to be the only players to have kept their values. I hadn't realize Clemente was that popular(as in second to Mantle), but I am glad I purchased him.
I haven't had any of them graded, but based upon my "professional opinion", I would say they would be mostly 6's or 7's. One or two may grade above a 7, and one might slide to a 5. The 1965 and 1973 are the nicest ones, but doubt they'd grade higher than 8. I'd almost prefer raw cards, personally, but I also really like to see it in person before buying. If there are legitimate, reputable dealers online(not auctions), I'd love some suggestions.
Thanks!
I actively collect Kirby Puckett. I have collections of Michael Jordan, Emmitt Smith, Roberto Clemente, Dwight Gooden, Tom Seaver, Errict Rhett and Evan Longoria.
All of these products...vcp, beckett, smr, ebay recent sales, etc. Are guides. The key word is guide. An item can realize any price....as long as the seller and buyer agree. So use those products as a guide then determine priorities....these will drive you to a reasonable sales price.
We are talking about items that cost pennies(or less) to manufacture that are now selling for hundreds if not thousands(or tens of thousands of dollars) - "rarity" is the only aspect that would command such a price and render the price "legitimate". I am familiar with a few markets(cars, paintings, land), and there are none I know of where the item commands such a steep price without actual rarity or scarcity. Its contrary to economics. IMO, there is a misconception of scarcity in the sports card market and most dealers depend on people who have this misconception. There are more cards available than buyers for 99% of cards out there. The pool of potential buyers is much smaller than most want to admit. Most "high end" stuff is being traded back and forth between the same buyers(if its really selling at those prices at all, which I have doubts in many cases). Now I hear there is a big Asian market for basketball; guess they ran out of gullible Americans.
And available supply is a very good indicator of demand - especially when its the same supply that is not selling. Further, if there is an advertised auction for say, a 63 Topps Pete Rose RC, and ten people sign up for the auction - that's the extent of your market right there!! People who already own the card aren't part of the market(many people own a card they would certainly sell for a price that they would never pay). And whoever wins the auction paid too much already because nobody else was willing to pay that price. This is just too "obvious" to me, and why auctions are a very poor indicator of value(not to mention they are full of collusion). Auctions tell you what one person was willing to pay at one point in time. Without knowing that persons intentions were(or if the owner was bidding up the card), it is impossible to gauge why they were willing to pay that price. It seems very obvious to me that the "high end" collectors are in it as a way to demonstrate their wealth to others, like paying six grand for a Rolex when a Timex does the same thing for much less.
Anyway, thanks for the input. The question I had which got lost in all this was "is there a place I can possibly buy these cards for a legitimate price?"
I actively collect Kirby Puckett. I have collections of Michael Jordan, Emmitt Smith, Roberto Clemente, Dwight Gooden, Tom Seaver, Errict Rhett and Evan Longoria.
The manufacturing cost means nothing. Almost all cards cost pennies to make but the market prices vary from less than a penny to million$. And there's also a huge variance in price for the same card in differing conditions (a poor Jordan RC might be $100, while a PSA 10 is $20,000+).
It depends. Sometimes it's a terrible indicator. Some 1/1s can be bought for $3. How many thousand Jordan RCs are there? How much do they sell for?
No it's not. It could just mean that 10 people saw the auction and felt they could be the top bidder.
Then go ahead and name all of the better indicators.
And auctions usually tell you what two people are willing to pay. If an auction ends at $7,000, it means that one person was willing to pay $7,000, and one other person was willing to pay ~$6,900.
Yes - ebay. If there was a magical place where you could buy cards much cheaper, then the only reason it exists is because few people know about it and/or can access it.
Do you have any cards that you want to sell? I'd be curious at how much below ebay prices that you'd sell them for.
Some of us do want to sell cards, fairly, I sent you a PM.
I have to much S**t; so if you working on sets or are a player/team collector, send me your want list, with conditions desired. Keep in mind I have a another job so please allow me a few days to respond.
Jimmy,
Welcome back to the hobby. Hopefully current market trends won't sour your ambition.
Yes, "investing" in cards might be a gamble as we need future generations to buy & "invest". ANY product is only worth what another person is willing to pay.
I have studied the current card market since 2009 and have made purchases ever since (HOF RC collection...130 cards total)
In 2009, '55 Clemente in PSA 6 sold for $1,300. It traded at that level for a couple years.
2013-14 there was a market breakout to the $2500+ range. Many Blue Chip cards broke-out with the same strength. People predicted prices won't hold.
Spring 2016, another violent market breakout. '55 Clemente was in the $5500 range or more!
Today, you can purchase a nice looking PSA 6 for $4000.
I think my points are:
1. Do your homework & be patient. Use the resources people here have recommended
2. We don't know if prices will continue to rise. Buy what makes you happy and within your budget.
3. Set a budget and collection theme. With ebay, the market is huge!
4. If you're unwilling to lose money, then probably not a good idea to collect.
Good luck to you
Erick