Shorting tvix in 2017

hopsin

I am short tvix...won't be looking at or responding to any comments in this thread until at least ... very far into 2017. Perhaps september 2017 I will drop in and respond/comment in this thread. I know people will tell me I'm stupid, I have no idea what I'm doing, I will lose all of my money, yada yada....I have so many times multiple the equity I need to continue this trade if tvix spikes (massively)...I have at least 5x the cash of the value of the shares of tvix I have shorted pledged against it. Not only will I not have a margin call, I won't even owe any margin interest. I began shorting tvix late december 2016. Just posting here in advance to let everybody know I will cover my short late next year for a profit of at least probably 80%. If tvix stops trading, I can change my short to uvxy. Late next year I will come back to tell you all about the profit I have made. The short interest fees will eat away a couple percent perhaps...but as the shares depreciate, the interest will be less and less because the principal will lose so much value. I am shorting greater than $1,000 worth of tvix in real life. Even if the market is down (perhaps significantly this year), tvix will still probably be down. A lot. It would be less risky to simply buy uvxy puts...perhaps I will do that soon. I'll check back much later after all of the comments telling me what an idiot I am have been proven wrong.

bronco2078

I got here in time to get the first post . I don't know what tvix is so I don't have an opinion as to whether or not its stupid to short it or not , but I'm willing to chip in a few yada yada's .

DrBuster

Line breaks, ha!

Wingsrule

I like UVXY

derryb

TVIX is a leveraged 2X short on the equities market

"This ETF offers investors a way to access equity market volatility, an asset class that may have appeal thanks primarily to its negative correlation to U.S. and international stocks. The VIX index tends to spike when anxiety increases, and as such often moves in the opposite direction of stocks."

As shown by its poor performance while equities soared, it is a very bold bet that the equities market is going to tank. I'm not clear if the OP shorted TVIX or went long TVIX in order to short equities. If he went long TVIX and equities do in fact tank, the payoff could be huge.

Bochiman

@derryb said:

As shown by its poor performance while equities soared, it is a very bold bet that the equities market is going to tank. I'm not clear if the OP shorted TVIX or went long TVIX in order to short equities. If he went long TVIX and equities do in fact tank, the payoff could be huge.

Reading this:

@hopsin said:
Even if the market is down (perhaps significantly this year), tvix will still probably be down. >

I am going with him shorting the short....ie, thinking the market will actually go up and therefore the tvix gets hurt as it goes for a losing market

derryb

@hopsin said:
Even if the market is down (perhaps significantly this year), tvix will still probably be down.

if market is down TVIX should go up. Five year chart shows massive TVIX losses in a rising market. If OP feels TVIX is a lose/lose, why even bother with it.

derryb

2017's first week of trading could make TVIX a money maker. Could very well be a lot of equity sellers who waited for 2017 to arrive in hopes of a new, lower capital gains tax rate that has been "promised." And their icing on the cake is that those lower capital gains taxes won't be due until April 15, 2018.