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2017 Numismatic Crystal Ball Predictions are ...
291fifth
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Make your predictions about what will happen to SPECIFIC numismatic items in 2017. NUMISMATIC SCRAPBOOK magazine used to do this every January issue (it was a monthly that ran from the mid 1930s to 1976). This is not the place for generalizations about the state of the coin market. Let the predictions begin!
All glory is fleeting.
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Based on the current sea of red in both series, my MS66 Antietam and my MS66 1937-S Walker will both be worth less on Dec. 31, 2017 than they are today. Specific enough?
It all depends on the direction of the U.S. economy. Consumer confidence is at a 15 year high and job growth expected. Thereafter the rare quality material will move up and the common stuff just stagnant. The last eight years have been a war on commerce but that will change if tax rates, excess regulation. etc. change as expected.
The real expensive super rare coins will continue to be in demand and hold/increase in value. For the wealthy, who can afford such coins, it's more about the opportunity than the cost, so the $250k+ coins should do just fine. Also, MS65 CAC material or better will do fine, especially coins with eye appeal -- that seems to be the trend now, paying bigger premiums for eye appeal than absolute rarity, and I suspect this trend will continue into 2017.
Then there are specialty/type sort of coins in sub MS65 grade with CAC -- while there might be some surprises, these will hold steady to slightly decline. The biggest losers will be generic type coins in MS64 and lower with no CAC sticker. My rationale for this is that the elite/more knowledgeable collectors are swimming upstream, juxtaposed against less newer collectors to buy lower end material, and maturing collectors who are deciding to buy less yet better material.
In general, there will be a few small blips / bubbles of appreciation, surrounded by stagnation and continued decline.
There will be a resurgence in interest in the common circulation Ike's, altho' they will still be available for about a buck fifteen each.
My collection will continue to erode in value.
The biggest losers will be all those craps that are coming out from the mint everyday. In other words...all TPG MS/PR 69-70 coins.
Silver, as well as, Gold will rise drastically! Silver, about $25 and Gold, about $2000. (hoping anyway)
"Jesus died for you and for me, Thank you,Jesus"!!!
--- If it should happen I die and leave this world and you want to remember me. Please only remember my opening Sig Line.Big and impressive coins, seems to be the direction for the bulk of the coin market over subtle, elegant and small.
Key dates in tougher series, especially gold should do well. Registry competition will drive other segments. If a nuke goes off anywhere, the metals will skyrocket and the esoteric numismatics will fade.
There will be a significant increase in mintage of 2017 Platinum Proof American Eagles.
But the higher mintages will blunt numismatic appreciation.
Look for... 2-coin platinum set with one Proof and one Enhanced Reverse Proof. (Same as the 10th Anniversary set.)
Successful BST transactions with forum members thebigeng, SPalladino, Zoidmeister, coin22lover, coinsarefun, jwitten, CommemKing.
Paramount Redfields are getting up there...
The unc. National Park $5 gold will appreciate considerably on the secondary market, but not as much as some people are hoping for.
US territorial gold will increase in value, US Mint stuff from the same date period, not so much
Eye-appealing, problem-free, collector grade classic coins in VF - AU will continue to inch upward in demand and value all year long.
- Jim
The real advancement in the hobby for 2017 will be the proliferation of fourth, fifth, sixth, etc grading and certification companies that will tell you how well the previous graders did when they graded your coin. The spaces on the slabs will fill up with stickers to the point that someone will end up slabbing the slabs in oversized pieces of plastic so there will be more room for more stickers.
Or, the values of generics will continue to be soft and mega grades of modern coins will become VERY soft. Veteran collectors will continue to fill those few slots needed in their collections as the coins become cheap enough for them to indulge their inner child. Common rare coins ( S VDB cents ) will continue to fall dragging the rest of the semi keys in circulated grade with them. Circulated 20th century coins will be almost unsalable for many series for anything more than melt ( roosies, washingtons, franklins ).
Collectors of classic coins will continue to become more and more choosey making those few original coins in more demand but relagating the off quality pieces to the junk or discount boxes.
Trophy coins will continue to be in demand by the truly rich.
There will be fewer bidders in auctions for less than stellar coins causing a dip in most series, especially those that are available in most any sale. Instead of population reports collectors will begin to rely more on past auction appearances to determine rarity. Coins that show up at auction once every few years will bring stronger prices as those that are "readily" available will go wanting.
As we all refine our tastes the "same" coins will be in demand. Those that who have not learned quality ( in any grade ) is king will be led to the slaughter at the time they decide to sell.
Much like real estate where the mantra is location, location, location ours will continue to be quality, quality, quality.
A: The year they spend more on their library than their coin collection.
A numismatist is judged more on the content of their library than the content of their cabinet.