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December a bad time to run auctions or a collapse in the market?
Dpeck100
Posts: 10,910 ✭✭✭✭✭
I noticed a tremendous decline in the 1986 Fleer PSA 10's and wonder if this is a collapse of a potentially over heated market or is December just a bad time to be selling trading cards on EBAY in auction format. Curious to hear some opinions. Here are two examples that sold for dramatically more earlier this year. I also wonder if there are other pockets of significant weakness collectors are seeing.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/351924128794?_trksid=p2060353.m1438.l2649&ssPageName=STRK:MEBIDX:IT
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If you are looking for a specific minimum price for an item, just start the auction at that price. If it sells at that price, great. If it sells for more, even better. But don't begin the listing for less than you are willing to let it go. If it does not sell at your minimum, no real difference there between that and if you had waited to list it until later.
I never run auctions in Dec. Too much competition from other gifts people need to buy.
I suggest you go study VCP real real hard, bro. Notice the heavy incline for many examples when the weather heated up and The National approached like a freight train off track. That noisy thud you heard happened in Atlantic City. The reverberations are still ringing. Go have a look at 1986 Fleer Jordan PSA 9. Tells you EVERYTHING you need to know. ;-)
Not only from a financial aspect (like has been noted above, gift buying expense) but the mental/physical strain of the holidays in general. The hustle/bustle of family visits,dinners, etc. I know for myself card auctions are the least of my concerns in Dec. Plenty of time to follow in Jan-March during the doldrums of winter.
Last year's holiday period saw stability. I don't know where this information gets developed. Let's just say the market was too healthy for awhile, and now it's normal again. People in this biz don't necessarily depend on holiday spending and those who buy will still do so if the price is good and the merchandise qualifies. The stock market is on fire right now. Plenty of dollar bills to shred. Again, if you don't believe in artificial inflation, you must really believe in Santa Claus.
Travis T the reason I ask is this type of decline seems so much steeper than just it's the holidays and people are spending money on other things. Auctions in many cases produce lower sale prices on more common and readily available items but seeing a Johnny Moore go for $4,500 which is over 65% off its peak seems like something else is at play.
I wouldn't call it a decline. Nor would I call it a collapse. Those things occur in times of economic struggle. Who exactly is struggling right now? This is what I will politely refer to as "settling". I've said it before. These types of engaging discussions are fun for awhile, but to cast doubt on the marketplace will just enhance the already existing mistrust of it. Please study some pricing history and you will see my friend. Normalcy is what we want to see. The run ups of months past will eventually become a distant memory and should not happen again now that we are aware of the forces behind it.
The stuff I collect didn't get caught up in the frenzy. It seemed to be concentrated in a few areas and those areas went parabolic.
The prices were inflated is what they have been eluding to. The "buyers group" ruined the market in the "positive" direction for 3 months and then it was trashed when the cat was let out of bag. After a tumble it has since been tanking below original starting point for many items with few outliers still realizing gains. The market can hopefully bounce back considering many hold overvalued/priced cards from the inflation, but it will take time.
The tanking below the original starting point is the exact issue I was getting at. It is one thing for an asset to skyrocket and back off as it is only natural. But to correct past the starting point is an entirely different scenario. Obviously this isn't the case across the board and I just highlighted a few examples where it was and thought it would be good to discuss.
The best way I can compare this event in a historical sense is to recall the McGwire/Sosa home run battles and the Bonds/Aaron chase. This period in baseball was not normal, it was enhanced. When a tide develops and can't be stemmed for any period of time, whether a day, a week, or a year.....when the water washes out, you are left with a pile of sand. And then slowly things creep back to normalcy. What drove this enormous tide that happened a few months ago? Was there any precedent set for it? Because if you look back at just the history of cards themselves, it's repetition. Any time there was a huge run up on something people collectively decided was critical to the cause, the next thing that happened was a precipitous slide. IF things only settle back down to a general level of the same normalcy we should expect of this marketplace, then next year should look like last year. This year was an anomaly.
I agree the frenzy didn't skyrocket all of the sports and categories like it did the big 3 but it still sent a ripple that has effected the entire card market.
Since I am still just a collector that rarely sells anything I was happy to see it decline after the big run up. I still have a couple of key cards I need to purchase and can't afford the prices we saw over the Summer.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
2007 PSA 9 Jordan going for under $1000
2016 PSA 9 Jordan just closed at $3400 - the lowest price in over a year
Still a very good investment at a 25% increase per year since 07.
With such a high population of PSA 9s out there a $6000+ hammer price seemed unsustainable. How many "investors" or collectors are out there to absorb that many Jordans at that price?
The summer of 2016 was the greatest bull market for cards I've ever seen and I am going to miss it from a selling standpoint. Guys got there mortgages paid off.
No doubt a solid return. I am one of the idiots who bought a Jordan PSA 9 for $1,100 in 2010 and then sold it for $1,250 or so a few months later. I can't imagine it coming back to that price point and was of the opinion that many of the cards may soften but wouldn't do a full retracement. It will be interesting to see how this plays out going forward. I didn't even realize a Jordan had dropped that much. The last I checked they were still holding in the high 4's. I only collect wrestling and Mike Tyson but if the decline continues into the mid part of next year I may start to buy some cards from other areas for fun.
Dpeck, I know it's not why you switched your focus, you are clearly a diehard wrestling fan but I think when you go to sell you will have made a wise financial move in focusing your attention on wrestling & boxing. You, wrestlingcardguy and a few others have a huge head start on anyone entering that niche.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
I always wanted a Jordan rookie and finally bought one in 2010. It just sat in the drawer and I was very new to spending larger sums on cards. When I dropped $25 on a Brock Lesnar football card that seemed a little steep to me. Buying the entire 1982 A set with a PSA 9 Hogan and Lawler for $199 in 2009 I had to really think about it. I sold it a few months after buying it and diverted the funds into the wrestling cards so in reality it probably worked out great but with hindsight being 20/20 I would have just kept the 86, 87, and 88 Jordan PSA 9's and bought the wrestling cards with other funds. I honestly didn't think it was going up much in price and figured I could get it back anytime but I felt extremely confident the wrestling cards and Tyson were going to go up significantly and wanted to buy as much as I could. Money aside the best part of the wrestling deal is a lot of great material hit EBAY in 2009 and 2010 raw so I was able to self sub a lot of nice cards and to this day many are still the highest graded and in some cases Pop 1's.
It was Art Bell!
Someone on this board several years ago posted pics of used checks showing $3000 paid for topps tiffany bonds rookies at the top of the market. Obviously steroids killed his value. I think it is a good time to buy now. Like others said, the market will rebound in may. Likely not to 2016 levels, but prices will be much higher than now.
what financial strain ?
I just saw a Mariano Rivera 2004 Topps Heritage go for $505 lol!!!!!!!!!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_players_from_Panama
I just figure it would be best not to compete with Christmas and New Years.
I have no actual data but speaking from my observations and experience collecting over the last four years it does seem like December is just not a great time to be a seller. If you are selling at auction at this time you do so at your own risk. I firmly believe that there is some seasonality to pricing and in the case of our hobby December is just about the worst time to be a seller. There is no doubt you are competing with numerous holidays in the month for not only dollars but attention. Typically people come back around to spending in the new year with a bump post Feb from tax returns with momentum building up into and through the National in the summer. This past year saw a larger than normal rise in prices for the hobby at large and as Dpeck described it, parabolic rises in select cards within the hobby. It is not surprising that most of the cards that saw parabolic rises found their way back down. I will be curious to see what this new year brings and if the higher than normal rise in prices last years puts a lid on any New Year bump in 2017.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/2004-Topps-Heritage-472-Mariano-Rivera-New-York-Yankees-PSA-10-GEM-MINT-/371806861854?hash=item56916a7a1e:g:o2EAAOSwcUBYRaLe
What is the story on this card? I see other listings say short print on him and Jeter.
I > @Dpeck100 said:
I have some nice Mariano cards, so its good to finally see his tough cards starting to get some notice.
They call me "Pack the Ripper"
The modern hobby just seems to move from each boom and bust. When I started in the hobby 30+ years ago there has always been a "hot" segment in the market. I'm not sure if there ever has been a "normal" year.
During the unopened run a few years ago, a lot of people thought the values were being pushed into bubble territory. The price rise eventually slowed down but generally speaking prices are still much higher than before the run. What would be considered "normal"? The price before the increase or the new slightly off-peak prices?
I think a pull back is expected with the large increases we have seen the last year and change. I watched a lot of
prices for the big rookies in baseball and football double and triple. It was fun to watch.
aconte
I guess in reflection, there must be some kind of terminology to apply, but I'd agree that there is little that could be considered "normal". Even behavior. I would offer a couple of opinions regarding the difference between the rise in unopened prices, which have been on the perpetual rise, and the recent spike in the pricing on cards which seemed to exist on a gentle curve until other efforts caused a discernible alteration:
1) Common knowledge amongst experienced buyers and collectors of unopened vintage product have guided them to the point of understanding that with each passing day, it is more and more difficult to locate items which are literally drying up.
2) 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan Rookie cards are not drying up.
It was fun. But now some of them are halfing and thirding.
i have no idea ..must be a heritage collector issue thing... i saw another like 2 months ago sell for the same price
i have over 100 autographed certified marianos stashed away
i just graded the 1996 leafs auto and got 10 and 10 on the bronze 10 and 10 on the auto on the silver and 7 on the gold and 10 on the gold auto
since it was a pre 1998 .. i had to submit for dual grading ...or grade and authenticate ... very expensive grading lol....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_players_from_Panama
A first edition, first printing of The Great Gatsby with the original dust jacket just sold the other night at auction for $26k. Last year the same book would have brought 75k easy.
Wow. Could you tell me more please? This seems like vital information. I intend to use The Gatsby Curve to plan all of my future sales tactics in the sports card & memorabilia business.
As far as December being a bad month to run auctions, I would agree with that 100%. My December auctions never seem to get bid up at all.
The same though goes for all other months of the year, basically because my items suck.
Nice going! That is some impressive hoarding!
His minor league cards I see in a 10 bring some good money. I used to love collecting minor league cards. If I were still actively collecting baseball those would be some of my prime targets.
I agree with all the auction assessments. However, bin has been strong. Different priorities for people using bin obo close to christmas for gift buys and with the many ebay bucks promotions popping buyers can't wait for a auction that wont end during tue bucks promotion period.
Just my two cents--the auctions I've run this month of superstar guys have remained largely the same. I'm talking the LeBron rookies, Jeter rookies, those kinds of guys. The others--not so much. Not as many watchers or bidders as usual. I'm not going to list anything new until after the new year.
I think 86 fleer got caught up in a lot of different factors. because it's a small set (132 cards + 11 stickers), there were a lot of people working fully graded/registry sets in 9s and 10s and some of the "allegedly" low pop cards saw huge increases. Moore is one of those, the checklist another, most of the "11 multiple" cards. There's a couple of the stickers that are also "low pop".
I suspect as the prices of Jordan 10s moved up, and dragged some of the other 10s with it, a lot of the 10 set builders dropped out. I was a big 9 set builder (put together and sold 4 over the course of 12 months), but eventually had to just give up because it was getting too expensive, and that was for 9s not 10s.
Specific to Jordan, I think a lot of the dealers aggressively started buying them as the market overall was moving up, expecting to continue to get quick flips of a few hundred per card. I think a ton of that inventory ended up in AC at the National (a ton was in Chicago the previous year, but it was MORE obvious in AC) and they didn't really move - some did but it wasn't a "hot" seller - lots of talk about them but I didn't see them flying out of cases.
I think as pictures from the show and reports started coming out, it kind of led to some previously interested parties deciding to take a time out to see how things might settle out. To me it's no surprise it's come back down, but as has already been pointed out, PSA 9 jordan RCs are still a long way from the bottom. At $5-6k per card, there aren't as many buyers. But in the $3ks, there are still a healthy number of buyers and under $3k I can almost guarantee the card won't last for sale very long.
back briefly to the moore and other similar cards from the set, the prices of those cards are heavily influenced by who is putting together sets more than anything else. there aren't johnny moore player collectors too much i don't think, so those set builders are the ones driving the prices. if they come back, and i suspect they will it just may be slow, the cards will start back up again. but those things were always volatile, just seemingly more so now in hindsight.
I think you nailed it. If December was such a good time to be buying, where are the buyers? I do believe we're in for a long cold winter. It's been a crazy long bull-run for cards. A 20-30% decline might be good for everyone.
Collecting Unopened from '72-'83; mostly BBCE certified boxes/cases/racks.
Prefer to buy in bulk.
Let's put this into perspective:
9/2/11 - $647 1958 Topps Jim Brown PSA 7 Probstein
7/28/10 - $1709 1963 Topps Pete Rose RC PSA 8 PWCC
4/5/06 - $970 1986 Fleer Jordan PSA 9 Naxcom
I have many more examples to draw from. The point is that not everyone spent bubble prices to acquire these cards, so I don't see why cards all of sudden would crash to nominal values. The prices I paid at the time weren't cheap and they seem to have held their value. The decline from this summer's peak doesn't concern me. I'm sure there are a lot of other collectors in the same boat as me.
Cards go up and cards go down. You can apply the bubble logic to any investment including stocks or real estate.
I watch those Pawn Stars and Antique Picker shows on TV and I am convinced that all Americans have a little of the "hoarder" gene. As long as there is a society; people will collect things. In our case, our hobby is tied to sports, which have a much larger following than other diversions.
I have noticed that PSA 8 George Gervin rookie cards have sold at record highs in the past month...with 3 of them selling near or above $200. That is a card that had been selling mainly in the $100 to $130 range for the past few years, so nothing wrong with the market there.
Gervin PSA 9 RC is very tough. This PSA 8 trickle down should continue on a notoriously difficult card due to tilts, surface flaws and a general lack of availability. I've had a devil of a time finding an Iceman rookie I can be satisfied with. If you apply this logic to other cards which SHOULD see increased demand because of rarity, then pricing shifts make total sense. Cards which sell on an almost daily basis don't fit this description, hence the scaling back of inflated-by-nonsense pricing for cards like a PSA 9 Jordan RC.
baseball, I laughed at your user icon. Please tell me I'm not the only one that saw that. I find the Mullins55 book example to be helpful, even without the gatsby curve to guide me as to what it means.
The Johnny Moore in a PSA 10 is now a pop 40. I recall a few years ago it was in the low 30's. For a card that's sole value is predicated on its condition sensitivity it may be that it has finally reached a population where the growth in 10's is faster than the number of collectors willing to shell out huge bucks for a bum.
I also notice the Jordan is up to 264 and I think just a few years ago that number was in the 180 range. Any Jordan PSA 10's collectors have any input on that number?
I enjoy cards as a collector and also as a potential investment opportunity. I look at the recent drops in prices as an opportunity to buy nicely centered cards I need - Mantles in high grade, PSA 8+ HOF rookies. If you want to truly look at the market without looking through tinted lenses think about it this way. Over the next 6-12 months do you want to be buying or selling, and if so which one looks more promising. If you look at the prices from April-August prices currently are better for buyers, but if you have a horizon of 5-10 years who has the advantage?
Well said Keith! Personally, I've been buying a lot the past 60 days. Lots of strong options out there at the moment!
Great time to buy on some of the more mainstream items, but prices are still strong in a lot of areas. > @Dpeck100 said:
We have a generation of people who grew up watching Michael Jordan who are now earning enough money to spend on Jordan related collectibles. This is well known and pretty obvious. The one aspect I find interesting is the younger generation who is still actively looking for and attracted to Michael Jordan. Whether it be sneakers or video games, today's youth still have a strong connection to Michael Jordan. Certainly much stronger than any connection I had, to say, Mickey Mantle or Babe Ruth, when I was a kid. As we move into the future, I feel this will continue to feed into people who clamor for Michael Jordan in general. Now regarding the pop on the Jordan PSA 10, yes, it will continue to grow, but I feel Michael Jordan's legacy will continue to grow as well. The fact of the matter is that you can talk about Wilt, Kobe, Lebron or Curry, look at analytics and breakdown all the advanced metrics you want, but none of them will ever be on Michael Jordan's level. People with money gravitate towards wanting the best of the best, and MJ is that for basketball. Now you can debate is the 86 Fleer PSA 10 or the Star 101 BGS 9.5 is the holy grail, but that is another discussion. One angle I find intriguing is that in an ever evolving digital world, will people care about cardboard with pictures of athletes on them in 20 years? Will there be a greater demand for it? Who knows.
IG: goatcollectibles23
The biggest lesson I've learned in this hobby, and in life, is that if you have a strong conviction, you owe it to yourself to see it through. Don't sell yourself, or your investments, short. Unless the facts change. Then sell it all.
Micheal Jordan is Michael Jordan. The 1986 Fleer basketball is the pound for pound winner in trading cards. Name one other card that is so easy to find in investment grade condition that commands the price it does. I would say the 82 Topps Traded Cal Ripken is also in contention as is the 89 Upper Deck Griffey Jr but neither are close to the Jordan in my view. My comment about the pop was just checking to see if I was right. The card actually appreciated during a rise in the population so that obviously tells you it is very strong in general.
Yes, Dpeck, pop has increased but the price of the card has increased at a greater rate. Pretty interesting and counterintuitive.
IG: goatcollectibles23
The biggest lesson I've learned in this hobby, and in life, is that if you have a strong conviction, you owe it to yourself to see it through. Don't sell yourself, or your investments, short. Unless the facts change. Then sell it all.
No question Jordan is more we'll known to people due to the timing of his career versus say a Mantle, Ruth, Chamberlain.... If you compare him to people of his time like Marino, Ripken, or even a Nolan Ryan he is far and away more well known due to his shoe brand. This will definitely help his exposure to fans in the US and abroad. Of course with his popularity has also come other issues like counterfeiting, fake holders.... I think this is what has hurt his recent sales; otherwise his cards should only be on an upward trajectory.
I would say suggesting that Jordan's 86 Fleer has only backed off due to counterfeiting and fake holders is over simplified. The card went parabolic if you were charting its price. Trees don't grow to the sky. His cards may one day reach the same heights and perhaps go higher but as Baseball pointed out when asset prices crash they usually don't recover and if so it takes a long time. Sometimes assets move way too far way too fast. Take NVDA. I shorted it today as it is making a parabolic top. The companies fundamentals are said to be amazing but when an equity runs from $65 to $120 in a month once it peaks a nasty correction sets up and with stocks at least you can try and take advantage of it.
Edit: Score!!! Just had one of my best trades of the year on the NVDA puts!
I'm not so sure you can equate a short term play on a stock to a short term wave of thoughtless, irrational behavior while purchasing sports cards. The comforting thought is this: There are only a comparative handful of people in the world who even exist at that highest level. If they want to play with their money that way, fine. But for the larger majority of folks who actually understand the nature of this business, it's best to stand back and watch. Know that your long term efforts aren't made in vain. Long after the damage has been done, the same people who've been there all along will be planting their own flag in the ground, same as always. Cards won't die and some unpredictable event will once again drive them up or down.