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Clemente RC. Yikes!
SOM
Posts: 1,555 ✭✭✭
All of the talk about the Jordan RC falling to earth, well, how about the Clemente RC? According to VCP, in May, a PSA 7 sold for $31K. Over the recent Veteran's Day weekend, one sold for $7.1K.
PSA 8s dropped significantly, too - from $150K in June to $38K last week.
Ouch!
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Market manipulation much?
Appreciate today-
Bill
What happens to all these holders at the very high extreme end? Does this mean market will eventually make it back there or are they basically SOL with the whole thing?
I'm hoping the 1975 Topps Brett PSA 9 falls a little more to the low $2000's. Based on the recent sales, it may happen by late Dec.
Stash...I think it means what this board has stood for since its inception: "investing" in baseball cards is very, very risky
Super rare high grade seems to still be on fire (Mint,Gem Mint) everything else not so much.
Psa 8.5 Pete Rose RC that sold for $40k is now back around 18k (ouch)
That's funny. I wanted to take the short position at $40k and no-one wanted the other side. Very telling.
Collecting Unopened from '72-'83; mostly BBCE certified boxes/cases/racks.
Prefer to buy in bulk.
They'll come on here and Net54 and complain about shilling, bid rigging, etc. Probably protesting and crying; not wanting to take responsibility; it's someone else's fault why they overspent. And we'll all tell them the same thing.....Look in the Mirror.
Collecting Unopened from '72-'83; mostly BBCE certified boxes/cases/racks.
Prefer to buy in bulk.
I agree with a lot of the points made and stated as such back when it was happening. Having said that the 8.5 Clemente is going through the roof as we speak and well worth it - what a beautiful card.
How would you take a short position on a card? Agree to sell it for $XX and deliver at a future date?
I think he meant a forum bet, but in either case without a time-frame to go by, his "short" could still be wrong. lol
31K is extreme and there is definitely a correction taking place, but the point I always go back to is look at the card not the holder. The HA 31K Clemente was near perfect centering and the one that just sold was an ugly 7 (no offense if anyone reading this bought it). I would bet a nice high end 7 will still probably fetch somewhere around 15K.
TheClockworkAngelCollection
Regarding an earlier post, I don't see the 1975 Brett card in accurate PSA 9 grade, with great centering and no tilt, dropping over time. Perhaps the more tilted examples, but even those are steady in the high $2000s.
In the case of the Clemente and Rose, and a few others, there was definitely a spike and a subsequent dip earlier this year. I don't really collect those cards and so admittedly don't follow them closely. That said, as mentioned above, the Clemente 8.5 at Heritage is soaring, as it should— gorgeous card.
I have been focusing on Mantle and Shoeless Joe cards the past few years, and unfortunately for my wallet have seen enormously strong prices in examples of their cards that have great eye appeal, at any grade. Anecdotally, I was the underbidder on this 1962 Mantle at Sirius, which basically doubled the going rate. Link:
siriussportsauctions.com/1962_TOPPS_200_MICKEY_MANTLE_PSA_NM_MT_8-LOT1041906.aspx
Overall, it seems the card hobby is continuing its evolution and maturation process, which has been happening a few years now, in terms of the card outweighing the holder. Those rare, undeniably lights-out examples at any grade level tend to command healthy premiums over average examples with the usual tilt, print, focus, or centering issues.
So a few mediocre examples of a given card can seem to indicate a softening, but then along comes a gorgeous card that sets off bidding fireworks— and brings that favorite message, "Sorry, you have been outbid on this lot!"
Instagram: mattyc_collection
In trying to help form a considered answer to your question, I think an accurate answer hinges on what we each mean by "holders at the very high extreme end?" If we define that as a PSA 10 1953 Topps Mantle, for example, what it means for that card is nothing but exponential appreciation over time. If we mean a PSA 7 Clemente RC with less than perfect centering, the prospects get less rosy. That is the cool thing about cards, is that it is difficult to paint them with an overly broad brush, given the different players, and the unique attributes of each card, and how that card calls or appeals to the individual collector.
Instagram: mattyc_collection
There has been an outpouring of material in recent months, thanks to the run-up which began prior to the National. The variance in pricing gaps within higher grades has become wider than ever before, truly defending the concept of buy the card not the holder. As more inferior product hits the market, the presumed thought might be that the market is turning downward, however, there is absolutely nothing wrong with protecting your interests on "high end" cards, which never seem to lose momentum if purchased with the correct intentions. If there is a bandwagon, and then there is a band, I'd prefer to be in the band.
That 8 is a beauty and I really wonder what kept it from a 9...
I think Travis is right about the supply side. I did notice multiple copies coming to market at the same time. Activity does tend to slow down this time of the year, let's see what happens in early 2017.
I'm sure some will say this isn't shilling/fraud/market manipulation or whatever and instead will just say say it's just protecting your investment/bad luck/coincidence or whatever you want to call it, but i'm not in that camp--that's for sure. Let's take the 1955 Clemente in PSA 8--just the last 20 auctions or so. You can do this for any "high" dollar card and see the same type of crap.
A***T 1365 feedback (ebay) -- He's bid up a ton of the clemente auctions (among others). 65 Bid Retractions in last 6 months.
S***N (ebay) -- 10 bid retractions over last 6 months. By my count, he has won at least 2 PSA 8s. He won the most recent one on 11/9/16 for $38,500. Funny thing with this EXACT card, is that some poor guy on May 6, 2016 won it in a Mile High Auction for a whooping $68,018 (before buyer premium?) OUCH.
S***N also won one on 7/17/16 for 107,500 (best offer so tough to say), but that same card sold for a mere $90,300 on June 7th -- someone did a quick flip for a nice profit...i guess -- hard to say
S***N really likes this clemente card as he has bid up a number of them outside of the two he won. Maybe he's trying to corner the mkt.
I *** S only 1 bid retraction, but also really likes to bid up this card. Has really bad luck though. Won an auction on 7/7/16 for $80,000, but then took a bad hit of nearly $40,000 when he sold it for only $42,519 in a Goodwin auction. Maybe I *** S didn't pay for the card...since A***T shilled it up and the consignor was ticked at PWCC for allowing/policing the shill so he put it in a Goodwin Auction. Who knows.
These are massive losses and there are hundreds, if not thousands examples of this. Call it what you will...
I agree that some key cards were manipulated, but how do you explain the overall general increase in prices? The spike hit across all sports, vintage and some modern. Did the fake rising tide raise all boats?
We covered this a while back and it was pretty obvious that what all my money stated is correct. I knew there were two of them mainly doing it, and was not sure about sn but with my own research I knew at was doing some massive shilling and price manipulation - either that or he was the worst bidder in eBay history coming in second on dozens and dozens of Clemente rookie, Rose rookie, Koufax rookie, and a couple of other stars. Always came in second in every auction, and had a HUGE retraction rate of over 65 in 6 months. There is NO way someone could legitimately bid on cards and have that many retractions. I have never had a bid retraction in my 10+ years of using eBay, and to have 65 of them all with the same seller in 6 months is brutal.
My understanding is that this person was not allowed to bid in certain auction houses and some major online eBay sellers for a short period right before the National, and coincidentally prices start dropping in half on the above stated players. Go research on VCP and it is the same price curve for all of those cards and the same people doing it.
I strongly encourage anyone interested in this to follow Keith's advice and do a bit of research for yourself. When I started digging into it I found plenty of evidence to support the accuracy of Keith's report as far as he reports, but this rabbit hole goes deeper/wider and involves more than just 2 bidders with lots of retractions on ebay.
Dave
Last year in June I had offered to short the Rose Rookie PSA 8, (which was selling for $16-$18K in June) for a dinner at the National '17 with some folks on Net54. No, I didn't have a strike date, just mentioned next year. All in fun. No takers, just crickets.
Anyway, is now trending around $4.5K. Which should make everyone ask; How many of the 17 recorded sales over $10K between May '15 and July '15 were paid for or were clean auctions? My guess; 2-3.
There are dozens of cards I would short right now. IMO, Shorting is an important balancer in the marketplace and "levels" prices without taking possession. Obvioulsy can't do that with baseball cards, but we can certainly talk about it.
Collecting Unopened from '72-'83; mostly BBCE certified boxes/cases/racks.
Prefer to buy in bulk.
What about the Rose RC 150k Psa 9 in June ... lol last one sold for 60k + still nice coin but a few were at the 100k level back then. Next one might b around 40-50k. Seems things getting back to normal. Problem is sellers are stingy and want top dollar (707) so they bin there cards that way just to collect dust now.
The spike was actually good for my hobby enjoyment. I paired down my purchases of high dollar cards and focused on lower cost items that I had been neglecting - 1955 Topps All American in PSA 7 and 2012-2015 Topps Chrome Camo FB. I'm pretty close to completing the Camo run, just need a few of the key rookies. I really enjoyed putting those sets together.
Yup. Whatever it was, spike or fake spike/TD pass, a bunch of great stuff surfaced while the market was considerably more active. Most recently, while things have begun to level off or dip, those same opportunities seem to be dwindling. I'd like to stay aggressive, but with a little less coffee added. The cycles of this hobby never seem to change, only the players.