Cy Young Award

dallasactuary

As a follow up to the MVP thread, I went back to 1956 to see who I would have voted for. As with the actual awards, I selected one pitcher for all of MLB for 1956-1966, and then one for each league after that. Also like the MVP thread, I will identify who I would have voted for, but also list any other pitchers who I think are perfectly reasonable choices. Unlike the MVP thread, in most years I think there was only one reasonable choice for best pitcher, and it was very rare that I think that there were more than two. But then, the value of a pitcher is MUCH easier to measure than a position player, mostly because there is only one thing to measure - pitching. With position players there's hitting, which is already harder to measure than pitching, but there's also defense, which is much, much harder. Yeah, pitchers also have defensive value, but it's as close to irrelevant as you're going to find. In most cases, where I identify more than one pitcher it is because the two (or three) pitchers involved pitched a significantly different number of innings. When that occurs, it brings the value of replacement pitchers, and therefore subjectivity, into the analysis.

The list - with the year, actual winner, my winner and other reasonable picks.

MLB
1956 Newcombe Wynn Score
1957 Spahn Bunning Sullivan
1958 Turley Ford
1959 Wynn Wilhelm
1960 Law Drysdale Broglio
1961 Ford Bunning Hoeft
1962 Drysdale Aguirre Purkey
1963 Koufax Ellsworth Koufax
1964 Chance Chance
1965 Koufax Marichal Koufax
1966 Koufax Koufax

From 1956-1962 the CYA went to the pitcher with the most wins 6 out of 7 times, and not once was that pitcher a reasonable candidate for best pitcher. Ironically the one time that the award went to a pitcher who was not the one with the most wins - 1960, Vern Law - the pitcher with the most wins - Ernie Broglio - was a reasonable candidate. I went back to check on who led the majors/league in wins after I had finished, and did not even glance at it when doing my analysis. You should do the same when you evaluate pitchers. Wins are a team stat, not an individual stat.

I would have only given Koufax one CYA instead of three - but he was a reasonable choice all three times he won. He was the best pitcher over that four year stretch by an enormous margin, but in any given year someone else was having a career year (or a fluky year if you prefer) and, IMO, nosed him out for best.

AL
1967 Lonborg Horlen
1968 McLain McLain Tiant
1969 McLain/Cuellar Cuellar
1970 J. Perry S. McDowell Palmer
1971 Blue Wood Blue
1972 G. Perry G. Perry
1973 Palmer Blyleven
1974 Hunter G. Perry
1975 Palmer Palmer
1976 Palmer Fidrych Blue
1977 Lyle Ryan Tanana
1978 Guidry Guidry
1979 Flanagan Eckersley
1980 Stone Norris
1981 Fingers McCatty
1982 Vuckovich Stieb
1983 Hoyt Stieb
1984 W. Hernandez Stieb
1985 Saberhagen Stieb
1986 Clemens Clemens
1987 Clemens Key Clemens
1988 Viola Higuera Viola Gubicza
1989 Saberhagen Saberhagen
1990 Welch Clemens
1991 Clemens Clemens
1992 Eckersley Clemens
1993 J. McDowell Appier
1994 Cone Cone Clemens
1995 Johnson Johnson
1996 Hentgen Hentgen
1997 Clemens Clemens
1998 Clemens Clemens
1999 Martinez Martinez
2000 Martinez Martinez
2001 Clemens Mussina Mays
2002 Zito Lowe Martinez
2003 Halladay Halladay Martinez
2004 Santana Santana
2005 Colon Santana
2006 Santana Santana
2007 Sabathia Sabathia Lackey
2008 Lee Lee Halladay
2009 Greinke Greinke
2010 F. Hernandez F. Hernandez
2011 Verlander Verlander
2012 Price Verlander
2013 Scherzer Scherzer Sanchez
2014 Kluber F. Hernandez Kluber
2015 Keuchel Keuchel
2016 ??? Kluber Porello

In this period, the CYA went to the pitcher with the most wins 62% of the time, and was a reasonable pick 57% of those times. Voters got better, and are getting better still as time goes on.

The most striking thing about the AL CYA since 1967 is the absence of Dave Stieb from the actual winners list. Not only did Stieb deserve the award for four years running - 1982 to 1985 - he was the only reasonable choice in each and every one of those years. Stieb is a borderline HOFer because he gave out at age 32, but while he pitched he was outstanding. Had he won the CYAs he deserved, though, I have no doubt that he would be in the HOF today.

Also of note, in 1979 Dennis Eckersley deserved the CYA. He was a starter then; he won it many years later as a reliever but didn't deserve it. No reliever has ever deserved the CYA. There was one, and only one year, where a reliever was valuable enough to be close enough to be considered - 1973, John Hiller. Hiller was more valuable than almost all the starting pitchers, but not close enough to Blyleven to be considered a reasonable choice. You'll also note Hoyt Wilhelm getting my CYA in 1959; 1959 was the one and only season where Wilhelm was used primarily as a starter, and he led the league in ERA.

NL
1967 McCormick Bunning
1968 Gibson Gibson
1969 Seaver Marichal Gibson
1970 Gibson Seaver Gibson Jenkins
1971 Jenkins Seaver Jenkins
1972 Carlton Carlton
1973 Seaver Seaver
1974 Marshall Niekro
1975 Seaver Messersmith Jones
1976 Jones Jones Denny Seaver
1977 Carlton Candelaria Reuschel Carlton
1978 G. Perry Niekro
1979 Sutter Richard Niekro
1980 Carlton Carlton
1981 Valenzuela Ryan Valenzuela Carlton
1982 Carlton Rogers
1983 Denny Denny Soto
1984 Sutcliffe Rhoden Gooden
1985 Gooden Gooden
1986 Scott Scott
1987 Bedrosian Ryan Hershiser Welch
1988 Hershiser Hershiser
1989 Davis Hershiser
1990 Drabek Viola Whitson
1991 Glavine Glavine
1992 Maddux Maddux
1993 Maddux Rijo Maddux
1994 Maddux Maddux
1995 Maddux Maddux
1996 Smoltz Brown
1997 Martinez Martinez
1998 Glavine Maddux Brown
1999 Johnson Johnson
2000 Johnson Johnson
2001 Johnson Johnson
2002 Johnson Johnson
2003 Gagne Schmidt Prior
2004 Clemens Johnson
2005 Carpenter Clemens
2006 Webb Webb
2007 Peavy Peavy Webb
2008 Lincecum Lincecum Santana
2009 Lincecum Carpenter Lincecum
2010 Halladay Halladay
2011 Kershaw Halladay
2012 Dickey Kershaw
2013 Kershaw Kershaw
2014 Kershaw Cueto Kershaw
2015 Arrieta Greinke
2016 ??? Hendricks Lester Scherzer

Not much of particular note in the NL so I'll just skip to some overall observations.

The pitchers that have been screwed over the most by HOF voters are:
Dave Stieb - deserved 4 CYAs, got 0
Jim Bunning - 3 and 0
Nolan Ryan - 3 and 0
Juan Marichal - 2 and 0
Phil Niekro - 2 and 0

There are a few pitchers with 2 more CYAs than I would have given them, including Koufax, but, like Koufax, all of them were reasonable choices for all or all but one of the ones that they received. Most of the poor choices for CYA didn't go to great pitchers having less than great years, they went to less than great pitchers having less than great years.

And the last thing that stood out to me was that the CYA voters are very different than the MVP voters in that they do not appear to have any aversion at all to giving the award to the same pitcher over and over again. Roger Clemens deserved 7 CYAs and got 7 CYAs; Greg Maddux 4 and 4, Randy Johnson 6 and 5, Pedro Martinez and Tom Seaver 3 and 3 each.

Justacommeman

Nice work. For 2016 I like your picks and hope the voters dont disappoint you this year

mark

Justacommeman

NL Finalists- Hendricks, Lester, Scherzer

AL Finalists- Porcello, Verlander and Kluber

B-Ref 1. Verlander (6.6) 2. Kluber (6.5) 5. Porcello (5.0)
FG 1. Verlander tie w/Porcello & Sale (5.2)
BPro 1. Sale (6.95) 2. Verlander (6.81) 5. Kluber (5.9) 8. Porcello (4.89)

mark