OK my turn - The next 1986 Fleer BKB Box? 1996 Topps Chrome BKB or 2003 Topps Chrome BKB?

ndleo

With basketball season coming up, I wanted to see what the board thought about the next "benchmark" basketball box. I think the top 2 candidates are 1996 Topps Chrome and 2003 Topps Chrome. The 1996 is around $1200/box and the 2003 is $750-$800.

1996-97 Topps Chrome Basketball
- Limited distribution
- Three HOF RCs - Kobe, Nash, Iverson
- Many mid-level star RCs - O'Neal, Marbury, Ray Allen
- Jordan in a Bulls uniform
- 2 refractors per box
- No autos
- 80 cards per box/220 card set

2003-04 Topps Chrome Basketball
- Higher print run due to Lebron hype
- Three HOF RCs - Lebron, Wade, Carmelo - and One borderline - Bosh
- 8 Refractors per box plus 3 additional parallels.
- One box top pack per box
- One Auto or Relic every other box. Only worthwhile autos are Wade, Carmelo, and Shaq.
- 96 cards per box/165 card set. 25 Rookies per box from a 55 RC checklist. Chances of pulling a good rookie are decent

I guess you could just make it a Kobe vs Lebron question, but I think the much lower 1996 print run may even up the checklist differences.

pauldrolkees

Pretty sure 1996 has 4 HOFers, no way Ray Allen isn't a HOFer. Steph Marbury has an outside shot to "Basketball" HOF for his contribution to CBA in China, the man is basically MJ over there.

galaxy27

^this



Ray Allen will be a first-ballot HoFer. Starbury may have compiled one of the most intriguing cases for induction in the history of the sport. Dude is so popular in China that he has his own museum.

VintagemanEd

What kind of print run are we talking about on these? What does each compare to as far as their availability on the market?

Cakes

Pretty cool topic, I would lean toward Lebron over Kobe. If Lebron wins a couple more he will be at icon status with an argument for being the G O A T.

ndleo

OK Ray Allen may get into the Hall of Fame, but I'm not sure he is a first ballot lock. Reggie Miller had to wait until his second vote to get in.

As for production, I believe the 1996 Topps Chrome was a retail only product. The only time I ever saw it was at a local Sam's Club. I haven't seen a case for sale in a while, if ever. Every box I have seen has some price sticker markings or residue from retail.

2003 Basketball was one of the most anticipated products ever, right up there with 2006 and 2012 Football. I think Upper Deck made up new products just to jam Lebron into another box. I know that dealer orders for 2003 Topps Chrome BKB were much higher than for 2002 and I don't think Topps allocated the orders. I still see cases come up for sale every now and then.

Outside of the top rookies, the rest of the rookie class crashed for both years.

Tabe

Originally posted by: galaxy27
^this

Ray Allen will be a first-ballot HoFer. Starbury may have compiled one of the most intriguing cases for induction in the history of the sport. Dude is so popular in China that he has his own museum.

That's crazy. Had no idea Starbury was popular like that.

slum22

For what it's worth, Ray Allen and Chris Bosh will both be HOFers. So 96 will likely yield 4 HOFers and 2003 will likely yield 5. Lebron is already ahead of Kobe historically as a player. The only advantage 96 has for it is that it is older and probably rarer. For investment purposes, 1996 does not have much left to push it higher other than Kobe's future HOF induction. Nash and Allen will get in but their card values will not significantly affect the price of the box as it is Kobe that makes the value of that product, like Lebron for 2003.

IMO, 2003 only increases significantly from here if Lebron wins another title. 2003 boxes were stagnant since winning his first Heat championship until this past year when he shocked the NBA by upsetting the Warriors. If he plays like an All NBA player and does not win a championship I do not see the boxes jumping. They may increase, because unopened almost always increases by its nature, but I wouldn't expect a move like what happened this year. I am a Warriors fan, but while I can see Lebron cruising through the East in perpetuity I think he did well and was in fact lucky to win the title last year. So while there is a potentially high ceiling with 2003 because its best player is still active and great, I don't know how likely it is to reach that ceiling. Now, there is also a floor. And that comes if it ever comes out that Lebron has been taking PEDs. The NBA seems to shield its players from this controversy and Lebron is one of the smartest players ever at crafting his own narrative, so it is an unlikely event, but IMO it is also not a non-zero possibility.

So IMO, the 2003 has the higher potential to be a home run or strikeout and the 1996 is more likely to be a double (to mix my sports metaphors). Given 2003's relatively larger run up in the recent past, if I were buying now, I would probably buy the 1996 box as I think it is a better long term value. If Lebron wins another title than this will seem like a silly prediction. But my feeling is the Warriors reclaim the throne and 1996 and 2003 both see modest increases with 1996 outpacing 2003.

MrVintage

In my opinion these 2 boxes are among the very best "investments" in sports cards right now. I think anyone that has the money and patience to buy as many of these as possible and sit on them for 10-15 years will be very pleased with the results. If I had to choose one over the other I would choose the 96. High grade common refractors sell for premiums and these boxes don't pop up nearly as often as they did 2-3 years ago.

SlangNRox

i would go with the 96 chrome as well. Wasn't it only sold at 1 store, Walmart or something? Still kicking myself for not picking up the kobe chrome refractor for $500 at the local card shop back in the day

BLUEJAYWAY

In regard to 96 chrome. Keep in mind that they do have front of card discoloration issues, turning a light shade of green at times. An added risk. So those that purchase those boxes run the risk of discovering that problem if the packs are opened.

craig44

Give me kobe, iverson and 96 chrome