The Nationals market

logger7

How weak is the nationals market now compared to a few years ago?



I had this somewhat better national, I could never figure why it only graded XF.



http://i.imgur.com/Drshy.jpg http://i.imgur.com/bpoQN.jpg

Heywood

I think the market is very weak.

But, It was weak a few years ago as well.

I just consigned all of my non-obsolete/ not-colonial notes, and almost all are selling way below their acquisition price. (2000-2015)

Nationals have so many different markets- Forbidden, hometown, low charter, state, type, etc. but common notes are not moving, and dealers are not buying for stock. I picked up notes outside my targets, thinking market was already soft. It got softer.

High grade nationals have stayed stronger as more people look to complete high grade type sets.

Your note looks to have a fold on right side, but based on blowing up the small scan it could go one bump to 50. But impossible to objectively grade from scan.

2ndCharter

With so many sub-markets within the Nationals field, it's tough to make a general assessment but here goes - at least during my involvement with the hobby:

From 1981 until 1995 - the market was what I call stagnant - prices were stable and you could buy something in the early '90's for the same price as a dozen years previous.

The May 1995 sale of the Shiva collection of Nationals and Large-Size Type sort-of kick-started the market. It brought in some new serious players to the field and, with several other major collections being dispersed - Dale Lyon, J. L. Irish, etc. - the market began to accelerate for the next several years.

The real boom began around 2003 when some "really serious" money flowed into the hobby - as exemplified by Dave Bowers chasing every good First Charter Ace in the country and record after record was shattered until the Financial Meltdown happened in 2008. I will always refer to the 2003-08 period as the "Happy Time." Since then, a lot of the big money has left and the market has steadily drifted lower.

Sure, there are certain exceptions - "Trophy Notes" have held up fairly decent and certain states are still popular but, yes, the market is down. It presents a great buying opportunity not for the "flippers" but for the folks who enjoy the notes not for the potential profit but for the sheer enjoyment - just be prepared to sit on them for a while because who knows when prices will start recovering.

Tookybandit

Beautiful note! Looks conservatively graded too.

logger7

This one I offered to my coin club members at cost, a little over $100, then sent it to be certified when there were no takers: http://i.imgur.com/twdpt.jpg It then did not meet the reserve on ebay on the first go around but went crazy the second time.

goodpaper

For that Charter #327, a 45PQ grade is nothing to regret; it's all about "eye appeal" for Nationals, and you could score a 64 for that same note that might not be as attractive as your slightly lower PQ grade example.

Timbuk3

I stay away from Nationals !!! ??

oklahomadanny

Here you go logger7

BGguy

I feel 2ndCharter's analysis is spot on. well done.

STLNATS

Originally posted by: BGguy

I feel 2ndCharter's analysis is spot on. well done.

+1



The last couple of years have been a great time to fill in pesty "specialist" holes in my collection except for rare types/banks which are generally solid or even rising a bit. With more info, such as the Smithsonian proofs, becoming accessible, I've even had a bit of luck finding interesting varieties on common banks (that "no one" seems interested in) at very attractive prices. A bit frustrating to be outbid on a couple of rarities, but in general gotta say that its been pretty much happy hunting.

logger7

Thanks for the overview and input.



Some years ago I picked up this better national from a flea market who had it priced high had it been a common large size. http://i.imgur.com/gW0Y2Nb.jpg http://i.imgur.com/6wYuvxb.jpg It didn't take long to find out it was better.

STLNATS

Originally posted by: logger7

Thanks for the overview and input.



Some years ago I picked up this better national from a flea market who had it priced high had it been a common large size. http://i.imgur.com/gW0Y2Nb.jpg http://i.imgur.com/6wYuvxb.jpg It didn't take long to find out it was better.

Lovely note

goodpaper

Date Back Circus Poster layout from North Carolina? Hmm. Might be better....

golden

I started collecting Nationals in 1969. So far I have not purchased a single note this year. I have never gone this far into the year and not bought anything. It is so tough to find anything that I need.

EastCoastCurrency

The real weakness in the market is on hole filler type material. 30 years ago there were people who wanted to get a note from every town or every bank in their area. That might require spending a few hundred to a couple thousand dollars several times a year as notes were available. Now it seems like most old school collectors have filled holes and there isn't anyone stepping up to buy moderately rare notes at $400 - $2,000. There will always be low budget collectors looking for bargains and spending $200 a time. And I think the high end of the market has adjusted to where it should be. Fresh and desirable true rarities are performing well. But if something has an auction history in the past 15 years, it just probably isn't going to sell for what it brought last time around. Most people know that they will take a loss on recent purchases so the best stuff is staying tucked away and we are seeing a lot of auctions with common material and resells so it looks like the market is softer than it really is because there hasn't been a lot of exciting material to test the market. I don't know if such a collection exists, but if 100 fresh $10,000+ nationals just showed up at auction unreserved I think the prices would be strong to surprisingly strong. There is a lot of money on the sidelines looking for something exciting to chase.

JrDavid68

I'm struggling with this too. There is a note I'm interested in. The seller is at $2k which I think is quite a bit more than it would have been even in the "happy time" mentioned above. I would like to make an offer, but I doubt I would even hear back ....

Tookybandit

It won't hurt to try. Throw out an offer and see what happens. Sometimes it's not so much the price tag, but what the dealer paid for the note and how long he's had it that will determine his sell price. Large price tags can often be negotiated. Some dealers start high to weed out people who are not serious buyers.

Boomer5070

Why should I or any collector care what a dealer paid for a note? If I offer notes for sale, nobody knows or cares what I paid for them. The market is the market and that's what should determine the price. The name of the game for a dealer is, or at least should be, to make money overall but not necessarily on every single transaction. People are human. They make mistakes. The market changes. Recognize the reality and take a loss when the market moved against you rather than let the notes languish in inventory for years on end. Even if you're wealthy and don't need the money, it's still not a good business practice to sit with stale inventory indefinitely that you paid too much for.

JrDavid68

I made the offer. The seller came down 5% but also commented that he or she paid quite a bit more than my offer. I countered, but we are a very long way apart. I'm already near what I paid for another example on the same town in similar condition at what I would consider the top of the "happy time".

Maybe I could go a little more, but it would still be something like 50%, give or take, of the what the seller claims to have paid for it. Am I being unrealistic in thinking that the market has softened that much?

techwriter

Stick to your offer (unless it's ridiculous); it's not your fault the person "paid too much". There have been many times when I have passed because the item was truly overpriced and dealer would not budge. I said thanks and moved on.

Boomer5070

You're absolutely NOT being unrealistic. I inherited some notes from my father when he died in 2001 and starting broadening the collection to the rest of the state in 2003, right at the start of "happy time." I've spent a lot of money building my collection and I've enjoyed doing it and enjoyed getting to know a number of the people in the hobby. That said, if I tried to sell my collection today or put it up for auction, it would probably bring half or even less than half of what I paid for it. That's life. It doesn't affect my life outcome at all. People should pursue hobbies because they enjoy them, not in the expectation of making money. If they make money, it's a happy byproduct but it shouldn't be an expectation.

What I or anyone else pays for a note today should reflect the current market environment. If owning a particular note gives you a lot of personal satisfaction, you can pay somewhat more than market to reflect the "emotional or physiological" value of ownership to you. A given not might be worth more to you or me than to anyone else on the planet. That's a personal decision but don't expect to recoup that value upon eventual sale. Also, just overcoming the normal dealer spread between bid and ask is a tall order from a money making standpoint.

Boomer5070

The current market should be the primary determinant of price. However, in the Nationals category at least, other factors can influence how much a specific individual might be willing to pay for a note. For example, home town, vacationed there, went to camp there, met my spouse there, like the name, etc. There may be personal reasons why someone might be willing to pay more than anyone else on the planet for a particular note regardless of what the estimated market price is at the time. That's all fine but don't expect to recoup your investment when you sell.

More generally, for all collecting fields, the spread between dealer buy and sell prices is pretty wide compared to, say, the stock or bond market. That alone is a daunting headwind for ultimately making money on your collection if you're not a dealer yourself. If you do ultimately make money, consider it a happy byproduct but don't expect it.

Boomer5070

I didn't see the first response post before posting the second one. That's why there is some repetition. Sorry about that.

logger7

I sold this New Mexico note last month, too bad it wasn't a territorial or something. http://www.ebay.com/itm/Las-Ve...F30-/232036665149?rd=1 When buying it I did my research based on the HA sale on a lower grade note, but the market went down after that. I "only" lost a few hundred bucks, it could have been worse. Last I spoke with him Mr. Knight was not too optimistic about nationals.

BGguy

well said Boomer5070

JrDavid68

It looks like we will not be reaching a deal at this time. Patience may work in my favor over time, I hope.