Prices not only leveled but falling back down?

Dnice

So I spoke a bit about a week ago on how prices have risen but also how I feel the dust has settled and prices appear to now have leveled out. Well yesterday I noticed a card that has been on fire for the past few months actually drop $1000. Sales were originally selling at around $3000 last year consistently but when prices began peaking around April of this year, they were actively selling between $5,000-6700 within these last 5 months. Does this mean that the card market is starting to re-price itself in a more realistic manner? I have noticed that Clementes and Aaron rookies have gone down drastically from peak sales (but still sell for tens of thousands more than originally). I really hope so because me personally, I had a lot more fun when cards like a Nolan Ryan or a Koufax rookie in a PSA 8 seemed more possible in obtaining for the common folks like myself

I am all about prices going up but the way that it went up was just a bit too intense, too extreme and too sudden. I feel that PWCC had a lot to do with what happened in the hobby with their "HE" cards which they began doing as of mid-year of last or is it really a coincidence? For example, a 56 Mantle PSA 8 that would have normally sold for around $7K was now selling around 9K because people thought it could bump so this was driving the average prices up and people kept chasing these average looking 8's because prices (on average) still continued to soar due to HE copies being sold at record numbers.

In regards to the card I was referring to in the beginning, it was the 87 Fleer MJ in a 10. Two ended last night at 4K even which is a big price drop from the 5k+ they have been selling for in the past 5 months. There is a card I have been looking at that I was about to purchase but now I want to see if prices on more cards will begin to drop back down. I am not expecting them to drop back to “normal” selling numbers of last year but I think everyone got caught up in this whole thing and the hobby went crazy. I am going to see how the next few sales end up to see if this pattern will continue on other cards who have also jumped up quite a bit. It's already begun with the Henderson rookies as well.

Marc

travis t

Today is the first day of fall. It's on the calendar. Soon there will be a big pile of leaves.

epatmythes

It's not an MJ, but it is basketball. Here is the VCP history of a card I need, but have been holding out on, during the boom...

9/20/16 eBay Auction $718.00
9/20/16 eBay Auction $716.00
9/1/16 eBay Auction $775.00
8/2/16 eBay Auction $811.00
7/28/16 eBay Auction $865.00
7/27/16 eBay Auction $801.00
7/24/16 eBay Auction $825.00
7/14/16 eBay Auction $869.00
7/7/16 eBay Auction $951.62
6/21/16 eBay Auction $830.00
6/13/16 eBay Auction $798.88
5/30/16 eBay Auction $857.00
5/17/16 eBay Auction $915.00
5/3/16 eBay Auction $945.00
5/3/16 eBay Auction $910.00
4/20/16 eBay Auction $1,005.00
4/6/16 eBay Auction $1,035.77
3/2/16 eBay $956.13
2/10/16 eBay $1,399.99
11/17/15 eBay $945.00
10/6/15 eBay $910.00
10/1/15 eBay $910.00
9/29/15 eBay $1,251.00
9/24/15 eBay $1,201.88
9/20/15 eBay $1,258.00
7/15/15 eBay $1,569.69
7/15/15 eBay $1,175.00
6/17/15 eBay $960.00
6/17/15 eBay $810.00
6/17/15 eBay $960.00
6/14/15 eBay $998.88
5/19/15 eBay $1,030.00
5/19/15 eBay $1,030.00
3/16/15 eBay $1,000.00
2/15/15 eBay $455.00
2/14/15 eBay $500.00

In early 2015, the card in PSA 10 had a population in the low 70's. Seemingly overnight it doubled in price and has somehow been maintained there since the very recent "coming back to earth" period. All the while, the population was growing. It now stands with a pop over 100. Discounting the last 3 that have sold at correctly downward treading prices... that means 32 were sold during the boom at approximately double the previous value or higher... when the population grew somewhere between 30-40 cards! It defies logic and I, personally, am glad I avoided buying in to it.

For purposes here, I only showed 2015-2016 data... to show the overnight doubling in price in early 2015 and how the card has sold during the boom... and now coming back down. In 2014, the average sale price was $419.30... and lower in the years prior.

I need this card. I want this card. I will continue to be patient. I will not pull the trigger until I can get it for $600 or less... preferably closer to $500.

travis t

Remember the big spin with unopened product? Where did all that go? The carryover from the wild spending on wax cases and the like must have taken these deep pockets to Yogi's fork in the road. The perception of need to greed has drawn too many people in. Many will get out. Some of you will realize your dreams of reduced prices for acquisitions. Dread the thought of the more uneducated buyers who loaded up the market with paper tigers.

Dnice

epatmythes, thats exactly the type of trend I am seeing with a few and hopefully more soon will follow.

rcmb3220

I don't follow cards in that price range but I will say I have not noticed prices going down for cards that until recently were in the $50-$150 range. these are probably the same cards you are referring to, only a grade or three lower and maybe have lagged behind the price trends of the higher grade examples.

Cakes

I have only made one major purchase in the last 6 months and I will continue to withhold from most purchases until prices keep coming down.

I did managed to pay off a credit card in the last 6 months.....lol

baz518

Prices will come back down, and I do believe the PSA 10 surge was very similar to the unopened surge a few years back. And I do think the "buyers group" is real, but not like people think. It's not an organized group of buyers hoarding for future investment potential, it's a term for all the "players" trying to take advantage of the situation (flipping during consistently rising prices).



The real reason for both surges, IMO, is that the popularity of card collecting has risen to modern highs over the last 6-7 years, probably at the highest level since the junk era. When you introduce a new group of buyers into a fairly thin market (due to prices and availability), bidding wars and skyrocketing prices will ensue. It's pretty easy to tell what generation is responsible for the increase in popularity and demand, just look at what has risen the most. With unopened, it was late 70s and early 80s (all the way through late 80s for football and basketball). With rookies in PSA 10, it's any pre-81 HOF RC (and pre-90 RCs for basketball/football). So it's a lot of junk era kids that have grown up and can now obtain the cards the dreamed of as a kid. I think the current leveling off has more to do with demand... in other words popularity hasn't waned, but the demand for certain cards has (probably because those that wanted them, have already obtained them). If popularity ever does sink back down to the lows, prices will drop even further. Just my two cents.

RookieHOFers

Marc, Staying on your 87 Jordan them, Take a look at what the 86 Fleer Jordan in PSA 10 has done since its PWCC HE sale in late June. It's fallen like a rock! That's a serious downward trend with plenty of data points in the process. Additionally, The pop on the Jordan in PSA 10 increased by 11 cards over the National week. That's a serious increase for a card that is a pop 263 as of this post.



9/19/16 eBay Auction | Image pwcc_auctions r***r 35 $23,000.00
9/11/16 eBay Auction | Image chasman633 m***- 39 $23,555.00
9/10/16 eBay Auction | Image psalegends h***c 52 $23,700.10
9/6/16 eBay Auction | Image probstein123 n***z 131 $23,800.00
9/5/16 eBay Auction | Image probstein123 y***9 25 $24,000.00
9/4/16 eBay Auction | Image psalegends n***y 29 $25,450.00
8/29/16 eBay Auction | Image probstein123 s***r 71 $25,200.00
8/28/16 Heritage Auction | Image 12 $31,070.00
8/24/16 eBay Auction | Image probstein123 d***0 64 $28,800.00
8/16/16 eBay Auction | Image probstein123 r***9 36 $27,700.00
8/14/16 eBay Auction | Image psalegends s***r 41 $26,900.00
8/4/16 eBay Auction | Image probstein123 d***0 71 $28,700.00
8/2/16 eBay Auction | Image pwcc_auctions h***h 21 $31,100.00
8/1/16 eBay Auction | Image pwcc_auctions t***o 29 $31,000.00
7/29/16 eBay Listing | Image 927richardms o***o Best Offer $25,000.00
7/26/16 eBay Auction | Image mia52267 d***0 32 $26,102.00
7/25/16 eBay Auction | Image probstein123 n***y 42 $30,433.00
7/24/16 eBay Auction | Image pwcc_auctions 4***4 23 $31,900.00
7/24/16 eBay Auction | Image pwcc_auctions t***o 13 $32,433.00
7/17/16 eBay Auction | Image calm6676 o***r 28 $30,000.00
7/14/16 eBay Auction | Image probstein123 b***b 64 $34,000.00
7/11/16 eBay Auction | Image probstein123 f***b 42 $36,655.00
7/11/16 eBay Auction | Image mia52267 b***b 43 $34,025.00
7/7/16 eBay Auction | Image pwcc_auctions h***h 44 $38,100.00
6/21/16 eBay Auction | Image pwcc_auctions s***b 69 $43,700.00

Dnice

Look at the Clemente in a PSA 8. This is every single listing from this year that VCP captured. Seems that has also fallen quite a bit but overall it did raise a steady $20,000 since the begining of the year. Thats still a heck of a lot of money. I am going to hold on on a couple of things and just see how this plays out but I dont think prices are going to continue selling and holding at the big numbers that we have been seeing the past 5 months. They however wont be as low as when the year started. As you stated, this is solid data.

9/11/16 eBay Auction | Image pwcc_auctions r***p 30 $56,100.00
8/28/16 Heritage Auction | Image 13 $54,970.00
8/19/16 Mile High Auction | Image 17 $56,000.60
8/1/16 eBay Auction | Image pwcc_auctions m***m 47 $55,700.00
7/17/16 eBay Auction | Image pwcc_auctions a***g 57 $70,200.00
7/17/16 eBay Listing | Image mnmiracle2004 s***n Best Offer $107,500.00
7/7/16 eBay Auction | Image pwcc_auctions i***s 88 $80,000.00
6/30/16 Goodwin Auction | Image 17 $150,391.00
6/26/16 eBay Auction | Image jstevec19 p***- 86 $94,600.00
6/7/16 eBay Auction | Image manontherock n***m 53 $90,300.00
5/14/16 Heritage Auction | Image 6 $131,450.00
5/8/16 Memory Lane Auction | Image 34 $61,200.00
5/6/16 Mile High Auction | Image 23 $68,018.10
5/6/16 Mile High Auction | Image 19 $68,018.10
2/8/16 eBay Image pwcc_auctions i***0 87 $45,100.00
1/8/16 Goodwin Image 11 $33,901.20

seebelow

its been difficult not pulling the trigger on some cards that are still needed...but y'all hit the nail on the head....its just difficult paying, say, $7000 for a card that was $1500 and has a POP in the 100's.....we won't see the early prices again but i think there's still some more correction in prices to go...letting the market decide

KendallCat

Originally posted by: seebelow
its been difficult not pulling the trigger on some cards that are still needed...but y'all hit the nail on the head....its just difficult paying, say, $7000 for a card that was $1500 and has a POP in the 100's.....we won't see the early prices again but i think there's still some more correction in prices to go...letting the market decide

I think you should unload all of your nice PSA 8/8.5 Mantle cards while you still can. I can help out if needed

seebelow

Ha...that may be sooner than you think..

RookieWax

I wouldn't draw any conclusions based on recent sales. This is a great time to buy. I have always felt that sales and prices go down once August hits. People take their vacations, then start to get football and fantasy football fever. Card activity and prices then start to rise quite a bit toward the end of the NFL season and really pick up after the SuperBowl.

travis t

There seemed to be a sentiment over pics posted from the Natty (heh heh) which encouraged some folks here to express opinions laced with disgust or distaste for the horde of Jordan rookie 10s on display. Kind of a reverse psychological trend soon develops, same as the desire to jump aboard a bandwagon, time to jump off when the load gets too heavy. The activity which preceded the big event, at the beginning of August, was what seemed to be driving the madness that eventually had to succumb to rational thought. If someone could horde Jordan rookie 10s so easily, what does that say about everything else? Some might want to witness an extended period of stability, but stagnancy in our game is what could potentially do the most harm. You'll notice in Dnice post about the Clemente rookie PSA 8, that the drop and leveling began.........on the FIRST DAY OF AUGUST! Same basic trend on Jordan PSA 10 after August 1-2 where it appears to have found its final peak over 30K (without knowing what happens in the private world, it's still only numbers). And so on. Check out VCP. I know it's not the same across the board for all big vintage and/or modern chase cards. But it's a good place to start. The 2016 National will become the U-Turn some people didn't want to see.

wilkiebaby11

I tihnk prices are coming down to where they "should be" had we not had that little bubble.



September-January always have lower prices than the other months. You would think September and October would continue to have strong months, but football starts to take precedence over baseball. A lot of fans and collectors are seasonal, especially if their teams fall out of contention. I'm always a buyer of baseball cards in these months.



I would bet that in April/May that the prices come back up to where they were in August/September.

SpinFadeSplash23

1986 Fleer PSA 10s have dropped a nice bit. Good time to scoop up some potential deals. I know I have.

ThoseBackPages

Still waiting for non-10 Jordan 90s stuff to drop

cardbender

I wouldn't pay more than $5k for a MJ 10 Rookie.

Why?

Because a 10 is a 9 on a different day or by a different graders opinion at another time.
It's just a 'mint' card.

A few may be microscopic better than each other, but the very subtle difference in 'mintness' is
not worth the $20-30K swing in price between the two grades.

I truly think Jordan Rookies are great cards to own and will be forever desirable, but
what's important about them is at what price point you get into them for.
If you feel good about paying $30,000 for a 10 and can do it, go ahead.

Personally I'd rather own six sharp PSA 9's of the card instead of one PSA 10.
That's just me.

I've never bought into the gem mint 10 grade in a subjectively designed grading scale.