Reflecting on what just happened with cards this past year.

Dnice

What the heck happened earlier this year that made ALL high end cards shoot up in value? I have never seen anything like this before happen. At first I really believed it was mostly shill bidders with particular cards but when you take a look closer at the dates and selling numbers, it appears that prices just simply went through the roof all across the board for all sports starting around March and April of this year.

If you were one of the lucky ones who had high grade examples of rookies or heavily desired cards, then you must have made some serious money. Plain and simple. I think it's great because I myself made a few thousand from the jump but then the flip side to that is that on cards that I felt I could have gotten at a later time such as a Clemente or an Aaron rookie in an 8 is just not even a reality from this moment on.

Looking at this from today's standpoint, I think that the inflation finally peaked. Prices actually even seem to have gone down or at least finally leveled off. At least for now. It appears that a lot of cards have cooled off and the dust has finally settled but the damage has been done in terms of that we will never see most of these cards for sale at the price that they were being sold at just over 6 months ago.

In the end, I don't know how I feel about what happened because I feel that the hobby left without me in terms of basically just pricing me out of many desired items. How does one keep up? Can they keep up or do we hope prices fall back down? But I suspect most of us don't want to see that happen either because then that means we just lost money. Let's face it. This is more than a hobby. This is an investment. We all know it wether we choose to admit it or not. Anyone who has gotten to know me on these boards has at least heard me say that our PSA cards are basically checks waiting to be cashed. You can either cash out or continue rolling the dice. I myself personally keep choosing to play as I really do love this hobby.

VintagemanEd

Well said DNice..... I love the hobby and within the hobby I love picking out a card or wax box etc that I feel might have potential to increase in value. In that you get the best of both worlds but I have never bought a card I didn't like just for investment potential

Stone193

Thanx for your perspective Marc.



I do agree that prices on some things have "priced" me out for them.



Procrastination has been my one true enemy. I've missed out on some things I would've liked but didn't have to own.



I saw a change in the hobby in 1990 where "Investment" seemed to permeate bigger than ever.



Like many, I thought "when I retire from the Army, I would like my own shop." Why? Like you; what a great hobby and why not make a living doing it.



Another ship that's sailed.



Do I have a perverse sense of pride about stuff I bought almost 30 years ago that's worth more now? I sure do.



But, I don't sell anything and only will if I need money.



I'm really, and honestly, trying "not" to give into the idea that what I collect has investment value since it would potentially take the fun out of the hobby.



Maybe that's why I enjoy and collect oddball stuff?

travis t

I saw it coming and still couldn't keep up. I did acquire some items that I'd be less inclined to chase at a current higher price point. The game is unchanged, though. There's still as much a good reason to pursue cards for passion, pleasure or pesos. Whatever works.

bobmoat

I for one am surprised that Ed would like this thread

craig44

I guess I must be in the minority now, but I honestly wish prices would go down. That way I could afford more and better cards. I have never really looked at my cards as investments as I never plan to sell. I guess my wife or daughter can sell them when I'm gone. But I would really rather have the cards than the money. I can always get more money, but some of my cards are either rare or sentimental to me and not as easily replaced as the money.

Dnice

Craig, I would also have the cards over the funds any day of the week. Money comes and goes but the enjoyment and fullfillment I get from owning cards that I really want is simply much greater. I also do not purchase with the intent to sell unless I see a good opportunity to make what I would consider as "fast money" off something in order to purchase something else that I wanted more. There have also been plenty of cases where I purchased cards were I recall telling myself I would never sell and then I find something that I really wanted at a later date that I felt would fit my collection better and so I have had to sell things off and it really sucks. Cards I never wanted to part with but felt as if that was the only choice at that moment. Then prices started to sky rocket and I began to wonder "if only I hadn't sold that" but at the time, it's what I had to do to get to where I am at. Although my collection is really small, I really enjoy what I currently have and I wouldn't have been able to have what I have now without selling off those pieces.

ndleo

I've started to prune cards from my collection in order to focus my participation in the hobby. A lot of those "on a whim" buys have really turned out to be very profitable. On the flip side a couple of the key cards I wanted - 1975 T Brett PSA 9 and 1979 OPC Gretzky PSA 8 - have risen to the point where I don't feel comfortable buying them.

I don't think buying now can be attributed to shills. A couple of modern FB PSA 10 RCs sold for record amount during the PWCC auction a little while ago. I mean they were like 20% higher than the previous highest sold price, which was already much higher than the previous sales from the end of 2015. I wasn't sure than the bidders would actually pay based on all of the shill talk, but the check showed up from Brent right on schedule.

cincyredlegs

Marc,

I never went after the PSA 8-10's. I honestly couldn't understand paying 100X the price for a 10 when I could get a 6 or 7 and couldn't tell the difference. Why do I need a loupe to find out what is wrong with the card. If it looks good to my eyes then I am OK with it. I have tried to find the nicest mid-grade cards with the nicest eye appeal.

There are all types of people in the card business. There are those in it strictly for investment. Some because they have to have the highest grade card. Some are wheeler dealers. Some like beaters. Others like lower numerical grade but great eye appeal.

For me, I am just a collector. I have been collecting since as far as I can remember.

Prices will come down. Like Mike, I remember back in the early 90's and all the investment cash that got in the market. I believe we are back in that cycle except a lot more money is in it this time. I hate to get stuck with those cards.......if I had them, personally, I would cash out and not look back and find the same card in a 6 at a fraction of the price.

Mark

jmmiller777

I guess most of us here are collectors, not investors. Like Mark, I always went for 6-7 grades with good eye appeal. I just couldn't and stil can't understand the reason for paying 100 times more for a 1-2 step in grades. Back in the 80's I did set up at a few card shows, but didn't really like selling my stash. Basically, it was the investors cherry picking my RC and HOFers. I have amassed over 400,000 cards and lots of memorabilia over the years. Like Mike, I retired from the military and wanted to open a shop. I don't think that will ever happen at this point. The last 6-7 years, I have focused on HOFers and food related graded cards/sets. Most everything I have is PSA 6-9. Since those early card show days, I have sold one card (think it was a 2007- the gold card of Bush, Jeter, & Lincoln) and a couple of bobble heads, both I have regretted. I'm a collector, not an investor. I enjoy what I purchase and open up. Selling would mean there was an uncontrollable financial problem. The rise in prices just means I will have to drop my want list a grade or so. I still want a RC Rose, a 52 Mays and Aaron, and an early Mantle card. Since my projects are all over the place, I have many uncompleted sets. My procrastination on the 68 Ryan has resulted in a crazy valuation of an EX+ raw card. It probably won't happen, but there are still values out there to be found.

MrNearMint

I can't really comment much on the vintage high grade price increases this year but many of the cards I collect (Jordan stuff) has also shot up quite a bit and I'm actually a little disappointed as I may have missed the boat on selling some of them at their peak. 6-12 months ago I would have never even thought about selling any of my precious Jordan cards but seeing the market explode like it did, I have to admit it's hard not to think about it.

It's odd, a few years back when I started collecting again, it was all about building a nice collection and not at all about investment or selling but now I constantly find myself saying, "I should sell this card, I could get $$$ for it". Funny What money will do to people lol.

initialD

I am always in to "play" but the surge in market prices doesn't make me feel down about being able

to keep on collecting. It makes me more happy with what I have and held onto, not disgruntled about what

I can't obtain anymore. Right now I am digging back into my collection. Going through about 800ct '86 Fleer basketball cards

to grade because there hasnt been anything tasty to come by lately.

I'm not a dedicated chaser of particular items or a flipper, but just a collector of way too many spectrums.

When avenues top out or get boring, I just switch it up. I've gone from wax to bust to graded sets, to graded RC's, to graded

HOFers, to auto'd RC's, to unopened wax, and raw sets and singles. But they're always avenues that I can bounce back and forth to

when/if something comes along. Granted most of my best pickups come along offline at shows and shops now, where the competition is as slim as the pickens.

I am not a heavy investor and don't call myself a big spender but I like to watch the market through ebay and read the forums to see the trends.

Yes, a majority of what could of been had before is out of sight now. It seemed to have happened pretty swift but it wasn't overnight.

The signs were there and so were the opportunities. If I didn't have the dough to blow on it back when it was affordable, I can't kick myself

for not being able to snag it now at 5x the past rate

The ships have already set sails and likely won't be coming back for ya, but there's always a skiff or a PSA 5 you can hop on that may still get you there grasshopper

divecchia

I think part of what happened was due to market adjustment with a bit of market manipulation thrown in and some fervor to get the next hot rookie card sprinkled in.



I've collected Nolan Ryan for 23 years, buying just one of each card only. Now I collect high grade Ryan cards for the PSA Registry set and I have been priced out of a rookie upgrade. I've wanted a PSA 9 for three years, but could never pull the trigger at $3,000-$4,000. For now I will have to be satisfied with my PSA 8.5 which I thought I overpaid for, but now it looks like I stole it.



For me this will always be a hobby and I am a collector, NEVER an investor. I keep a strict budget that I follow and seldom deviate from. The day this is no longer a hobby that is fun for me, everything will go without concern for price. I never sold a Ryan card for the first 20 years that I collected. A year or so after I started the PSA Registry set I started upgrading my Ryan cards. That's when I started selling my lower grade Ryans. I've probably sold about 250 cards in the last 3 years and doubt that I have made a profit on more that 5 of those cards. With a track record like that I would not last long as an investor.



From a collector's point of view.



Donato

mtcards

My feeling on the increase in card value is similar to what happened to cards in the late 1980's. Up until that point, cards were looked at as a hobby and when the investment part
of it became "mainstream" you saw the tremendous number of people who became involved in sportscards. Cards like 1988 and 1989 Donruss were "collectible because so many
people were buying it, the problem is, most of it was coming from investors who were there because they saw a way to make a little money by buying it and selling it a few years later
as they had seen issues like 84 Donruss go from the original price of $6-$8 a box to over $100 in just a couple of years. The problem was that the demand from a collectors standpoint
had not changed and when the "next big thing" to make money, whether it was Beanie Babies or Furbies, they moved on, leaving a glut of garbage that arent sellable 25 years later.

That brings us to today. The sudden rise in high grade vintage up to and including Jordan Rookies and tough inserts. Why the rise? Somehow, I feel it is partially due to the same issue.
The demand has risen because investors see opportunity to make more money buying premium issues of cards as opposed to other investments. With most people believing interest rates will go up, many investors will be looking outside the stock market for better opportunity and some have started to move and some have moved to sportscards once again. Will the same thing
happen this time with investors eventually leaving? Who knows?

The one thing I can say is that collecting now is more specified than it used to be. Back in the day, many people collected everything they could get their hands on, now because of the cost and because of the overall selection of cards available, most people have smaller focuses than ever before

ndleo

mtcards has a good point, the 1980's-early 1990's investment craze was widespread. It hit practically every level of the hobby. I remember a 1989 show near Chicago where a bunch of grown men stood in line in front of a dealers table to buy boxes of 1989 Fleer Baseball to find a FF Ripken and 1989 Upper Deck. The line was literally out the door into the hotel lobby. A fight nearly broke out when one guy was about to buy out the table. Those were the best of times!

Today's spike is very specific and looking back probably the smart move. For modern, the "buying group" has done a very good job targeting specific modern RCs to drive up. They just aren't going after every RC. Some years it is Contenders and SPA, in others it is Topps Chrome. So is you want a Big Ben RC, a Contenders PSA 10 is around $2500-$3000, but you have plenty of nice PSA 10 options at $200, some with auto/jersey and more limited. Now I know for vintage it becomes more of a lower grade option, but overall this hobby is still very healthy unlike the 1980's spike.

BaltimoreYankee

There are still plenty of really neat cards out there. I never had many PSA 8s or 9s in the first place. Generally, my collection breaks down as: 1950's: PSA 4-5, early 60s: PSA 5-6, later 60s PSA 6-7, etc. I'm glad I got my Koufax rookie when I did (a PSA 4.5 last year). I'd like to some day have a presentable 54 Topps Hank Aaron but may never get there.

JJCTHE1

I am a collector and love the fact that a lot of the stuff I buy now has investment potential. The market is not like the 80s-90s junk wax era. It's very different you have a market that is now much more quantifiable with a quantifiable trackable supple, you didn't have that in the junk wax era and it was all speculation and manipulation by dealers and the manufacturers. It's now much more matter of fact, we know what things sell for, we know how many there are in the sample and it gives much more transparency and validity to the hobby. I think that's why I have found the last 7 years so enjoyable. I collected in the 80s and stopped in the early 90s. Got back in around 2009 and have built a very impressive collection that has overall seen immense growth in value. I also go to the major shows and see several very high end cards changing hands constantly, whether it's high grade vintage or short printed newer jordans, it's amazing what some of this stuff sells for and how fast it sells. Goes to show you there are a lot of collectors out there with the money to spend. I agree market has gone up a little too much too fast, but there are also a lot of people that collected in the junk wax era now have families, have an established career, and the disposable income to spend on a hobby that they can enjoy from anywhere.

The hobby has also allowed me and my brother to reconnect our childhood on a whole other level. Which I am sure is the case for many of you as well.

Darin

I like baseball cards.

originalisbest

All good thoughts. My take has been pretty much the same since I decided I wanted a run of Mantle cards (not the '52 Topps, alas) but knew I certainly couldn't afford them in NM or better -- so I pursued VG-EX for earlier, even a lowly "Good" for '52 Bowman, and Ex to NM on 1958 and up. Since then I still need a '54 and '55 Bowman to have all his regular issues; the '51 rookie I had to think long and hard about paying $1200 for is one of the prides of my collection -- and I certainly couldn't afford to pay what it goes for now.

In short, awhile ago I found whatever cards I could from a given era that I could more easily afford (lower grades) while still seeking the nicest-presenting for that grade that I could.

lahmejoon

Originally posted by: ndleo
mtcards has a good point, the 1980's-early 1990's investment craze was widespread. It hit practically every level of the hobby. I remember a 1989 show near Chicago where a bunch of grown men stood in line in front of a dealers table to buy boxes of 1989 Fleer Baseball to find a FF Ripken and 1989 Upper Deck. The line was literally out the door into the hotel lobby. A fight nearly broke out when one guy was about to buy out the table. Those were the best of times!

My favorite LCS dealer shared a story where, back in the day, he and a few other dealers used to line up outside of Costco before the doors opened when they knew new product was coming in. This one day, the Costco workers started raising the gates and one of the dealers ducked under and ran into the store. When the rest of the people waiting got to the baseball cards, they found that guy laying on the entire pallet of boxes and claimed they were his (I can't remember what junk wax it was - I'll have to ask him to rehash the story next time I'm in). The rest of them appealed to Costco, but Costco let the guy have them all.

MULLINS5

Originally posted by: lahmejoon

Originally posted by: ndleo

mtcards has a good point, the 1980's-early 1990's investment craze was widespread. It hit practically every level of the hobby. I remember a 1989 show near Chicago where a bunch of grown men stood in line in front of a dealers table to buy boxes of 1989 Fleer Baseball to find a FF Ripken and 1989 Upper Deck. The line was literally out the door into the hotel lobby. A fight nearly broke out when one guy was about to buy out the table. Those were the best of times!

My favorite LCS dealer shared a story where, back in the day, he and a few other dealers used to line up outside of Costco before the doors opened when they knew new product was coming in. This one day, the Costco workers started raising the gates and one of the dealers ducked under and ran into the store. When the rest of the people waiting got to the baseball cards, they found that guy laying on the entire pallet of boxes and claimed they were his (I can't remember what junk wax it was - I'll have to ask him to rehash the story next time I'm in). The rest of them appealed to Costco, but Costco let the guy have them all.

Exact same thing happened to my parents involving Beanie Babies at an Aunt Sarah's Pancake House. Guy went through the BACK of the store and claimed all the beanies before the line and the manager let him have them.



As for sports cards, I always wanted to buy back my old Gretzky PSA 9 OPC when it got back on the market and figured I'd pay a couple thousand more for it, but with the current prices I'm perfectly OK letting it go.