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Collecting Modern Day Cards
LOTSOS
Posts: 1,304 ✭✭✭✭✭
So those of you that read my introductory post know I collect hockey exclusively and haven't bought cards since the 1980s. In the short time I've been back in the hobby the vast majority of the cards I've acquired have been from the 70s-mid 80s. And that's a trend that will, I think, continue and if anything I may collect back further before I'd collect more modern. But this year was a very unique year in the NHL. It had arguably the best crop of rookies this century lead by Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Artemi Pannarin, Shane Gostisbehere, and more.
So because Eichel is a Sabre I decided to pick up his rookie card and a few Mc David's just incase he is the "Next" Next One. Easy right? I mean you only have OPC or Topps to choose from or just get both. WRONG! Upper Deck alone has SP, Black, Black Diamond, Ice, Ultimate, and also O-Pee-Chee plus I'm sure I'm omitting some. Oh and don't forget Fleer, Leaf and...... The list goes on. Then take each of those lines and each has a few cards that could be considered rookies. Take UD SP for example, there is Future Watch, Young Guns, Sign of the Times, Pach of this, Swatch of that ...... Then each of those have a exclusive version, a limited version and then different colored variants.
I'm certain that none of this comes as a suprise to any of you but to someone who is just getting back into the hobby it is a bit too much to process. So to say I feel overwhelmed is an understatement.
Now before I continue I just want to be clear that I'm not looking to use collecting as an investment vehicle. BUT with that said I also recognize that as collectors in general we expect, I think, over the long haul some appreciation of our collections. To quote the owner of my favorite franchise: " If I want to make some money, I'll go drill a gas well"
So I did what I think is to me the right thing. I bought the cards that had the most eye appeal to me. If they had different levels of exclusivity I tried to get as many as I could at the best price I could. But in the back of my head I wonder where the prices that you see right after the release of a product line fall on the ever changing "value" curve.
So a few questions that perhaps some of you may be able to help me with.
1) First a hockey specific one. Does there seem to be a brand or line that over the last few years is the card of choice for collectors?
2) What seems to happen to the prices of modern rookie cards (assuming that the player stays on the projected career arc) in years 2,3,4 etc? I ask not because I want to flip stuff but out of curiosity if it would be better to hold off on purchasing some of the rarer and there for higher dollar cards now till years 2-end of that players career? I mean I get that a sophomore slump, could cause a few high dollar card owners, who were in it to flip it, to get nervous and sell but if you are talking a 1/1, 1/5, 1/15 etc how many might you ever see again?
I know that there are sooooooo many variables that there may not be a cook book answer so I'm hoping to get a few opinions from those of you who have been through this cycle before be it in baseball, football or basketball.
Thanks in advance to any of you who take the time to reply.
Kevin
So because Eichel is a Sabre I decided to pick up his rookie card and a few Mc David's just incase he is the "Next" Next One. Easy right? I mean you only have OPC or Topps to choose from or just get both. WRONG! Upper Deck alone has SP, Black, Black Diamond, Ice, Ultimate, and also O-Pee-Chee plus I'm sure I'm omitting some. Oh and don't forget Fleer, Leaf and...... The list goes on. Then take each of those lines and each has a few cards that could be considered rookies. Take UD SP for example, there is Future Watch, Young Guns, Sign of the Times, Pach of this, Swatch of that ...... Then each of those have a exclusive version, a limited version and then different colored variants.
I'm certain that none of this comes as a suprise to any of you but to someone who is just getting back into the hobby it is a bit too much to process. So to say I feel overwhelmed is an understatement.
Now before I continue I just want to be clear that I'm not looking to use collecting as an investment vehicle. BUT with that said I also recognize that as collectors in general we expect, I think, over the long haul some appreciation of our collections. To quote the owner of my favorite franchise: " If I want to make some money, I'll go drill a gas well"
So I did what I think is to me the right thing. I bought the cards that had the most eye appeal to me. If they had different levels of exclusivity I tried to get as many as I could at the best price I could. But in the back of my head I wonder where the prices that you see right after the release of a product line fall on the ever changing "value" curve.
So a few questions that perhaps some of you may be able to help me with.
1) First a hockey specific one. Does there seem to be a brand or line that over the last few years is the card of choice for collectors?
2) What seems to happen to the prices of modern rookie cards (assuming that the player stays on the projected career arc) in years 2,3,4 etc? I ask not because I want to flip stuff but out of curiosity if it would be better to hold off on purchasing some of the rarer and there for higher dollar cards now till years 2-end of that players career? I mean I get that a sophomore slump, could cause a few high dollar card owners, who were in it to flip it, to get nervous and sell but if you are talking a 1/1, 1/5, 1/15 etc how many might you ever see again?
I know that there are sooooooo many variables that there may not be a cook book answer so I'm hoping to get a few opinions from those of you who have been through this cycle before be it in baseball, football or basketball.
Thanks in advance to any of you who take the time to reply.
Kevin
Kevin
0
Comments
Very few of the young guns hold their value. The exceptions are the obvious players - Crosby, Ovechkin etc.
Most Young Guns that people are paying 5 bucks or more for when they first come out can be had for 99 cents each a few years later.
Not a hockey guy but I'd assume it's just like other major sports cards. If you'd like to see your collection maintain and even build a little value then make sure you have some nice solid vintage of your favorite hockey legends. I'm
Not suggesting that only vintage holds value I've just found that it tends to at the least maintain its value. Mix a little in and continue grabbing the newer stuff that you like. One word of advice and this is just a personal preference, the newer auto stuff is fine even pretty nice but all the patch, puck, jersey stuff seems to lose value the moment newer stuff comes around. Welcome back to a great hobby!!! Good luck Kevin.
I haven't collected much in well over 15 yrs except for Topps Heritage.
What do these boxes go for when they go live? I assume 36 pack boxes?
I hope panini never gets an nhl license
They recently lost it
Bowman Draft has recently been released in "hobby" boxes, "jumbo" boxes, and "super jumbo" boxes. I think hobby guarantees 2 autos per box, jumbo guarantees 6 autos/box, and super jumbo guarantees 12 autos per box. Last year I think they were like $90, $130, and $200, respectively. Bowman Draft comes out later this year. There will be huge case breaks on blowout cards forums, where their main breaker will open at least 50 12-box jumbo cases of this product, probably 2-3 times.
If you want to gamble on Bowman Draft autos and trying to get the limited color autos, that's one way to do it. Although the times I've tried, I've gotten at best 5 autos of a player.
Thanx John.
I am not a hockey guy, but I believe that UD Young Guns are normally "the" rookie card of players to get.
In baseball, it's "Bowman Chrome Prospect Autos" from either Bowman or Bowman Draft. 90% of cards will plummet three months after a product releases, and only stars and rookie cards seem to hold any value. It's true for lower numbered cards that you might never see them for sale again. But buy what you like, and don't just buy a ton expecting a rate of return on modern prospect cards. There are people who do it profitably, but you're better off just buying some singles you like and then quit.
Thanks for the tip John. Like I said I'm not really looking for a return so much as a good buying strategy which singles strategy is.
Mjohnatgt is right, Young Guns are usually the rookie cards of choice. I prefer OPC but it gets complicated with that as OPC usually comes out in September before all the new rookies have played so the best OPC rookie cards end up being inserted in later products.
Very few of the young guns hold their value. The exceptions are the obvious players - Crosby, Ovechkin etc.
Most Young Guns that people are paying 5 bucks or more for when they first come out can be had for 99 cents each a few years later.
PMK,
I like the look of the OPCs myself. When you say later product do you mean OPC later in the year or inserted into say SP and such? Sorry if that's a dumb question but this really seems to be more complicated in general then it needs to be.
I'm
Not a hockey guy but I'd assume it's just like other major sports cards. If you'd like to see your collection maintain and even build a little value then make sure you have some nice solid vintage of your favorite hockey legends. I'm
Not suggesting that only vintage holds value I've just found that it tends to at the least maintain its value. Mix a little in and continue grabbing the newer stuff that you like. One word of advice and this is just a personal preference, the newer auto stuff is fine even pretty nice but all the patch, puck, jersey stuff seems to lose value the moment newer stuff comes around. Welcome back to a great hobby!!! Good luck Kevin.
Good to know about the patches, stick, and jersey cards Mick. Personally I wasn't a fan of these even before you said it. If I want game used memorabilia I'll buy a whole jersey,stick, puck etc. I don't need some tiny peace of fabric. As far as the autos go my general opinion is that today's players for the most part have pretty lame autos. I mean I'm an Eichel fan but his auto is horrible. Plus you can only get it on Leaf cards and since they aren't NHL licensed it's pretty lame buying a card where the logos are photo shopped off. Now here is a couple of great autos!
[URL=http://s613.photobucket.com/us..._zpsbllb5qzt.jpeg.html]
Future Watch autographs tend to be the 'affordable high end' rookie-autographs of the big names. I'm using quotes because the Cup autographs carry ridiculous price tags. I personally think the FW autographs tend to be the best looking first year/rookie autographs. The Cup autos tend to use tiny photos and make it all about the patch and ink.
Will, I like the look of the Future Watch myself. I did a few case breaks (I have a few questions about them for a future post) and came away with several McDavid and Eichel FWs. The problem again is that Eichel isn't under contract with UD so no auto. The one thing at least is they left the whole picture in. With the UD Black they erased the bottom of the photos to make a clean slate for the autos and if you don't put the auto there it looks lame.
I haven't collected much in well over 15 yrs except for Topps Heritage.
What do these boxes go for when they go live? I assume 36 pack boxes?
Bowman Draft has recently been released in "hobby" boxes, "jumbo" boxes, and "super jumbo" boxes. I think hobby guarantees 2 autos per box, jumbo guarantees 6 autos/box, and super jumbo guarantees 12 autos per box. Last year I think they were like $90, $130, and $200, respectively. Bowman Draft comes out later this year. There will be huge case breaks on blowout cards forums, where their main breaker will open at least 50 12-box jumbo cases of this product, probably 2-3 times.
If you want to gamble on Bowman Draft autos and trying to get the limited color autos, that's one way to do it. Although the times I've tried, I've gotten at best 5 autos of a player.
Now that seems like a steal compared to some UD hockey. Boxes of UD SP were going for $130 or so a box which seems comparable. A box had 20 packs at 5 cards per pack. Each box had 3 autos. The real kick in the nuts was UD Black Diamond and Black. $225 a box for 6 S. I. X. 6 cards. That's nuts!
I stick with flagship Upper Deck each year.
Photography is usually great and the Young Guns hold value pretty well overall.
I think Eichel's best looking RC is his Young Gun card.
You can always chase cards from the rest of UD's product lineup on Ebay.
I avoid ripping anything except the base product. Too expensive for me ,and the value usually isn't there unless you get a big "hit".
Good luck!
Good advice Robert. I agree his Young Guns is his best card which is why I snagged the one below. Cool celebration photo and I remember the game too which is cool. Also just to make sure I'm clear SP is what you are referring to as UDs flag ship?
[URL=http://s613.photobucket.com/user/Lotsos/media/image_zpsgrwvw1vv.jpeg.html]
Kevin
I get lost as well with the new shiny stuff. If UD put more effort into OPC and released it a month later to catch the good rookies it would be my choice.
I wish all auto/patch cards had cool photos, and also had real backs instead of a stupid authentication disclaimer. Topps did some amazing stuff with their auto cards between 2000-2010. I don't know if is still the case in other sports but I try to find on card autos with class when I can.
People seem to make money on modern but it is a pretty different world than the vintage world I occupy.
-Nathanael
Ill talk hockey with you anytime! I'm not a fan of patches. The autos are ok but as I said earlier most modern day hockey player autos are jokes. Especially ones on cards. I was listing to a Beckett pod cast or WGR which is a radio station back in Buffalo (I can't remember which) they were talking about how players often times had two different autos. I believe the used Sidney Crosby as the example. If it's a creepy guy hanging around outside the pregame skate with like 10 items to have signed for "his kids" it wa a quick and ugly sign. But if it was a kid or at a paid signing he always took the time to make a nice signature. I'll have to take a closer look at Topps of that vintage.
I'm still trying to find my inner collector (insert meditation like sound hear) but I'm all but certain I'm a vintage guy myself. The Eichel - McDavid search will be it for a while for me.
Kevin
Kevin
Base: Topps
Premium: Bowman Chrome (AU)
Football
Base: Topps Chrome(As of this year, Panini Prizm Prizms) Panini has the exclusive license now
Mid Range: Panini Contenders (AU)
Premium: Panini National Treasures (Patch/AU)
Basketball
Base: Panini Prizm Prizms
Premium: Panini National Treasures (Patch/AU)
Hockey
Base: UD Young Guns
Premium: UD The Cup (Patch/AU)