An end to the craziness!

wilkiebaby11

I've noticed that a lot of high end RCs that were setting record after record are starting to finally cool off in the past 2 weeks or so.



I haven't seen said dip in the mid-grade specimens of the same card.



A lot of people speculate that prices dip a little around the National, and I would disagree with that for the "normal people's cards". I would attest that prices of the high-end cards (4...5...6...digit price tags) would probably drop or at least hold around this time of the year when these type of buyer's can and will make the trip to the National to buy the card in hand.





Personally, for me, it's buying season as I don't live in that upper echelon.





Without beating a dead horse; anyone else's thoughts?

ThoseBackPages

i need a centered Jabbar RC PSA 1-3

VintagemanEd

Yes they all zoomed to a new price point.... So now we have a new norm which is not all bad. There are some cards though that have not seen an increase yet

PSASAP

A PSA 8 Rose rookie went for under $10k yesterday, a significant drop from recent sales.

initialD

Wait until you see the prices AT the National haha! I doubt the craziness in pricing will let up there

Who knows if the 10-30 buyers will be in attendance or not? So strap on your cash muzzle

travis t

Buying season never ends, thank goodness. Kinda like the NHL Playoffs.

wilkiebaby11

I think that anyone who has (tens of) thousands (or more) to throw around knows that they can go to the National and examine any said card that they like and buy it that day. Hence, some of these recent big priced auctions have come down a bit in their final hammer. They are still well above their normal "inflation rate", will have you, but have definitely cooled off. Cards priced around $1000 or less didnt seem to see the big price spike and have havent seen this short downward trend either. I did end up probably 'over paying' for two or three cards just so that I wasnt priced out of them down the road.



I actually considered shorting the high prices by selling my big stuff and buying them back later at lower prices months later. But I'm still a collector, not an investor, so I didnt.

travis t

A true high end example of a desirable key card will carry the load. When the handfuls of pretenders join the race it drags averages down, but never the quality of the finest examples. If you wish own the best of any card, pay up.

Dpeck100

Certain cards may be cooling off but not all. Check out the Jim Brown 8.5 on eBay.

cardcountry

Originally posted by: travis t
A true high end example of a desirable key card will carry the load. When the handfuls of pretenders join the race it drags averages down, but never the quality of the finest examples. If you wish own the best of any card, pay up.

+1. Well said.

mattyc_collection

Originally posted by: travis t
A true high end example of a desirable key card will carry the load. When the handfuls of pretenders join the race it drags averages down, but never the quality of the finest examples. If you wish own the best of any card, pay up.

Here here. True words.

seebelow

It is true there has been the cooling off period. Even in the big name RC's. Barring extraordinary quality.



It'll be interesting to see who holds out the longest. Those who want the new price point and those still holding cash for the (slight?) retracement that is beginning. For ex. the big name high grades that have a 3-500+ POP where the jump in price can't be sustained.



And those shipping their cards out to AH's trying to cash in on the exuberance. Didnt I see 5 PSA 8 Rose RC's at one time on ebay alone at one time? Or something similar but you get my point. Some are dumping, some are cashing in. Im holding because I don't know when i could get back in.



I see the one store that did or did not shill his inventory has a lot of '87 MJ's 9 and 10s. Still trying to get the 7k for a 10.



I agree the desirable key cards will always be desirable. But somewhat less affordable. For me anyways.

MantlesMantra

A lot has to do with who is selling the card. Many of the record setting auctions have come from the same large sellers and have had suspicious, to say the least, bidding.

When a low feedback buyer with a large number of bid retractions is the one who bloats an auction or auctions, it's no surprise when there's a correction.

Unknown

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ssollars

Originally posted by: Dpeck100
Certain cards may be cooling off but not all. Check out the Jim Brown 8.5 on eBay.

I know, been watching that. Just think what a 9 would be going for... 6 figures?

Last 8.5 from VCP was only $5k about 2 years ago.
Last 9 from VCP was $29k about 6 years ago.

Might have to get my 8 reviewed

There are several other high end FB cards on eBay at the moment going for high dollars.

Unknown

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cardcountry

Originally posted by: CrissCriss
Private sales are still very strong.

Absolutely. And you're spot on about a dip before the natty. People save their $$ to spend at the show

Jeff

mintonlypls

Quality will always sell for good money. When there is an apparent dip in price for a given grade...collectors must realize that not all cards for a given grade present the same. Some cards have better eye appeal than others even though the cards have been assigned the same grade. Not all 9s are equal, not all 8s are equal...and so on.

VictorLaszlo

Originally posted by: mintonlypls

Quality will always sell for good money. When there is an apparent dip in price for a given grade...collectors must realize that not all cards for a given grade present the same. Some cards have better eye appeal than others even though the cards have been assigned the same grade. Not all 9s are equal, not all 8s are equal...and so on.

That's the truth. Rickey Henderson 1980 Topps represents that theory well. And most "high end" Rickey 9's, even some 8's, absolutely destroy the Dmitri Young Rickey 10.

mb2005

I don't think the craziness has ended....PSA 8.5 1965 Topps Joe Namath

KendallCat

Originally posted by: mb2005
I don't think the craziness has ended....PSA 8.5 1965 Topps Joe Namath

This one makes a lot of sense price wise actually since according to VCP no 9's or 10's have been recorded as far as sales. Should have a chance to be a $100k card when it is done.

KC

VintagemanEd

It seemed some of the cards in PWCC auctions were light last nite..... Barkley and Olajuwon in psa 10 seemed to go for less than normal

wilkiebaby11

So all factors aside, it does seem reasonable that the eBay prices may be down on the cards that recently sky-rocketed (excluding highest Pop cards, ...) due to the fact that people with these kinds of funds to spend are more apt to wait the couple of weeks to buy the cards in hand at the National. Consensus from around this board and others is that prices normally do take a small dip before the National. If this is true, then.....



My question... How long is the National "hangover"? I've noticed that there are a lot of auction houses that are ending their auction a week or two after the National. Do they expect unfulfilled buyers to go gung-ho on their items? I'm just curious as to the mentality of these auction houses and these types of buyers, since I am neither.

Morgoth

Originally posted by: mintonlypls
Quality will always sell for good money. When there is an apparent dip in price for a given grade...collectors must realize that not all cards for a given grade present the same. Some cards have better eye appeal than others even though the cards have been assigned the same grade. Not all 9s are equal, not all 8s are equal...and so on.

That hasn't been true during the frenzy. Look at VCP for the most recent 71 Bradshaw PSA 8's that sold. They were some of the worst PSA 8's I have seen and I have owned multiple and still own multiple Bradshaw PSA 8 RC's. I have even owned the entire set graded. These stunk and still brought big money.

KendallCat

Originally posted by: wilkiebaby11
So all factors aside, it does seem reasonable that the eBay prices may be down on the cards that recently sky-rocketed (excluding highest Pop cards, ...) due to the fact that people with these kinds of funds to spend are more apt to wait the couple of weeks to buy the cards in hand at the National. Consensus from around this board and others is that prices normally do take a small dip before the National. If this is true, then.....

My question... How long is the National "hangover"? I've noticed that there are a lot of auction houses that are ending their auction a week or two after the National. Do they expect unfulfilled buyers to go gung-ho on their items? I'm just curious as to the mentality of these auction houses and these types of buyers, since I am neither.

As far as the National is concerned prices are typically higher from what I have seen versus say eBay... I think one reason is people can see items in person and judge if they are high end while in their hand. On eBay sometimes what you see and what you get can be very different - corner that looked sharp in a scan is a little rough or maybe there is a surface wrinkle or blemish. Also, in person people can negotiate so items might start higher with a little wiggle room. They are also higher due to overhead costs - booth fee, hotel, airfare or gas money, case rental...

With eBay there is a lot more product and volume, but there is something about seeing cards in person that I enjoy. Plus seeing fellow collectors and sharing is also what makes it unique.

KC

Dpeck100

PSA 10 Dorsett


Man these football cards are bringing strong prices. I remember when this was a $6,500 card.

travis t

Quite a slugfest there at the finish.

Dpeck100

Yes two nuclear snipes colliding.

travis t

Funny. I'd call them rocket scientists.