Home Trading Cards & Memorabilia Forum
Options

Changing of the Guard: The Commoditization of Sportscards

2

Comments

  • Options
    dtkk49adtkk49a Posts: 2,484 ✭✭✭
    It kind of blows that 15 or 20 people are pricing most of the true collectors out of the market.



    What happens to the card market when these 15 to 20 millionaire collectors who are driving the prices up to insane levels get bored with cards and start dumping their play money elsewhere?



    I do know a lot of people with deep pockets have bailed on slabbed coins due to the proliferation of fake coins in fake holders that are almost impossible to detect. Maybe that money is now going into cards??



    With prices going through the roof, how long before the card market is full of fake cards in fake slabs??
    Follow me - Cards_and_Coins on Instagram



    They call me "Pack the Ripper"
  • Options
    mikelowell25mikelowell25 Posts: 1,252 ✭✭✭
    Nice to see you posting on the boards again Brent; I actually sent you two emails on May 12th and May 27th regarding the 1968 Topps lot from Recently Opened Wax Packs that you sold on ebay in mid-May and am surprised I never heard back from you because you've always been good about getting back to me in the past; would appreciate a reply when you have a moment--thanks!
  • Options
    ThoseBackPagesThoseBackPages Posts: 4,871 ✭✭
    Originally posted by: dtkk49a
    It kind of blows that 15 or 20 people are pricing most of the true collectors out of the market.

    What happens to the card market when these 15 to 20 millionaire collectors who are driving the prices up to insane levels get bored with cards and start dumping their play money elsewhere?



    You answered your own question! lol
    Big Fan of: HOF Post War RC, Graded RCs
    WTB: PSA 1 - PSA 3 Centered, High Eye Appeal 1950's Mantle
  • Options
    Originally posted by: baz518

    Let's not forget that every time someone wins an auction, to everyone else in the market (at that time) for that card/set/pack/box, the winner "overpaid". I assure you, if there are only 10-30 collectors bidding up the prices of these certain cards... it is indeed a bubble. That is not enough market participation to sustain prices that are primarily driven by demand (and emotions). If I were one of those 30 (assuming they're not flipping them), I would seriously be concerned about who will be willing to buy these cards in 50 years. I would also be praying that no corruption is ever found in any of the main grading companies.


    !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!+++++++++++++++++++!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    It boils down to these two facts I can't shout to the hills loud enough. These two will or can absolutely devastate this hobby or market. Pray no corruption or we are all holding worthless cardboard. And that the market can sustain the value these few "investors" have driven it to.

    Bingo! Bingo! Bingo!
  • Options
    Originally posted by: DanBessette
    I'm shocked, honestly. I chose my words carefully and did not personally attack anybody. The bid retractions have been the subject of countless threads on here. How often do we have the chance to go directly to the seller and ask him about it? I genuinely hope he'll reply and reply honestly. I will revise my comment slightly to change anything that might be viewed as sarcastic or whatnot. The rest of you can spend hundreds of posts decrying the bid retractions and saying something is afoul. Why not ask the man himself what he thinks about it? I thought that would be healthier than all the one-way griping.


    A couple of the sellers that manipulate the market continue to sell from their ebay stores. They shill their own auctions until a real bidder wins. Its a no lose game for them.
  • Options
    ndleondleo Posts: 4,083 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Let's say that these cards are being bought by 10-30 people. If you are not one of these buyers, how are you being harmed by the spike or subsequent fall? As long as you don't play the game, you can't get hurt.

    If the spike is being driven by these few buyers, why would a fall crash the hobby? If it did crash I don't think the long-term collectors would feel it since we didn't pay $4K for a PSA 9 Brett RC or $15K for a PSA 8 Rose RC.

    Unless your a dealer, I doubt anyone here is putting 401(K) money or mortgage payments in PSA graded rookies.

    Mike
  • Options
    fleet47fleet47 Posts: 78 ✭✭
    My first post. Have been collecting since 1986. Have seen many ups and downs in the hobby, but WOW. This is unreal. If 10 to 30 people are capable of doing this, I can't wait until 20 to 50 take over. They have to be bidding against each other. Love this hobby, but have been priced out on items I was hoping to add to my collection. Time will tell if these prices hold or not.
  • Options
    bouncebounce Posts: 1,094 ✭✭✭
    No one ever believes bubbles exist, or that they could even burst...until they do. It's ALWAYS "going to be different this time", until it's not. It's always a "new normal", until it's the same old song and dance.

    What's happening right now is completely unhealthy for the hobby, particularly the pace at which it's occurring. And let's not pretend it's just happening to the top .01% or 1% of cards. It's happening across almost every grade of key RC - some are paced faster than others certainly but it's trickling down across the entire spectrum of certain cards/issues. PSA 4 and 5 Koufax and Clemente RCs have moved up dramatically as well - this isn't just a PSA 8+ phenomenon, those cards are just the "headlines".

    I like Brent a lot, but Brent if you really think these things are commodities (I don't, I think they are much more akin to art, at least the pre-60s stuff) - pick any commodity in history that you want that experienced the kind of price increases we are currently seeing measured in weeks/months, and what eventually happens?

    Tulips, gold, stocks, gas, power, oil, doesn't matter. These things always fall in price FAR FASTER than they went up, and "blowoff" tops are a hallmark of the "near-end". Maybe we aren't there just yet, but it's coming...eventually.

    We don't need time to tell us whether these prices hold...they won't. They never do.
  • Options
    cardcountrycardcountry Posts: 569 ✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: TheHillCollection

    Maybe I am wrong, however all of this makes me chuckle. Everybody is trying to solve some master puzzle if this is a bubble or not. Who cares? To me this is simple...

    I say people should buy cards and have fun with what you are doing and if you are not comfortable with the price then don't buy it.

    Carry on...



    +1

    Everybody who knows me knows that I love cards and I buy and sell a lot. Therefore, I'm getting lots of inquiries about my perspective on this situation. I have been known to pay crazy prices for cards I want. I am currently buying just as aggressively as I ever have, and selling as much good stuff as I can put out. Every day I get inquiries about high end cards. To me, if the whole industry falls flat (which I in no way think will happen), it's not going to be the end of the world for me. I don't pay my bills or feed my kids from this, and I don't plan my retirement on it. It's a hobby and I buy what I like. As long as I stay within my means and buy what I like, no worries here.
    See you all in AC

    Jeff
    Jeff Foy/Dave Foy
    Card Country
    Graded stars 1950's-1980
  • Options
    PaulMaulPaulMaul Posts: 4,720 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Right on Jeff. I just purchased a PSA 9 1973 Ted Abernathy, so I think I'm safe.
  • Options
    RookieWaxRookieWax Posts: 1,066 ✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: bounce
    Tulips, gold, stocks, gas, power, oil, doesn't matter. These things always fall in price FAR FASTER than they went up, and "blowoff" tops are a hallmark of the "near-end".


    I don't see anybody being proud of or enjoying their display of barrels of oil in their man-cave.

    Cards can be investments and be enjoyed at the same time....unlike any of those things you are trying to compare them to.

  • Options
    SDSportsFanSDSportsFan Posts: 5,094 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I wonder if much, if not all of this increased money being thrown around, is a result of the recent Forbes Magazine stories. They've run stories on Just Collect's recent T206 find (with Plank), Love of the Game's recent "find" in San Antonio TX (The "Bible Study" find), and the "Lucky 7" find of T206 Cobb/Cobb backs. Wall Street types who read Forbes (who among them doesn't?), see these stories and undoubtedly become interested in squeezing more money out of the populace (card collectors).





    Steve
  • Options
    ndleondleo Posts: 4,083 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: bounce
    No one ever believes bubbles exist, or that they could even burst...until they do. It's ALWAYS "going to be different this time", until it's not. It's always a "new normal", until it's the same old song and dance.

    What's happening right now is completely unhealthy for the hobby, particularly the pace at which it's occurring. And let's not pretend it's just happening to the top .01% or 1% of cards. It's happening across almost every grade of key RC - some are paced faster than others certainly but it's trickling down across the entire spectrum of certain cards/issues. PSA 4 and 5 Koufax and Clemente RCs have moved up dramatically as well - this isn't just a PSA 8+ phenomenon, those cards are just the "headlines".

    I like Brent a lot, but Brent if you really think these things are commodities (I don't, I think they are much more akin to art, at least the pre-60s stuff) - pick any commodity in history that you want that experienced the kind of price increases we are currently seeing measured in weeks/months, and what eventually happens?

    Tulips, gold, stocks, gas, power, oil, doesn't matter. These things always fall in price FAR FASTER than they went up, and "blowoff" tops are a hallmark of the "near-end". Maybe we aren't there just yet, but it's coming...eventually.

    We don't need time to tell us whether these prices hold...they won't. They never do.


    Is buying key graded RCs the only way to collect? The is a wide and diverse hobby. There are many ways to enjoy the hobby without having to buy key RCs. I started building Chrome Refractor football sets. All the money I had budgeted for graded rookie cards is now being spent on the sets. The spike hasn't effected this part of the hobby, but Yes I do think value of the refractor sets will increase, so that is how I choose to play this market. Collectors need to chill out and spend more time looking for another angle rather than wishing for a crash.

    It doesn't matter if it is a bull or bear market, there is always a good investment out there somewhere, you just need to find it.
    Mike
  • Options
    grote15grote15 Posts: 29,540 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Do we really even need a thread like this one in the first place? The title itself would seem at odds with what many still consider a hobby. I don't think it's so much "wishing for a crash" as much as just wishing to keep the discussion centered more on cardboard and less on commodities. JMHO.


    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
  • Options
    travis ttravis t Posts: 1,185 ✭✭✭
    A businessman opened this discussion. I don't think it was intended for "hobbyists" per se. We are who we want to be.
  • Options
    grote15grote15 Posts: 29,540 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: travis t

    A businessman opened this discussion. I don't think it was intended for "hobbyists" per se. We are who we want to be.




    That's deep, lol..





    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
  • Options
    mikelowell25mikelowell25 Posts: 1,252 ✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: grote15

    Do we really even need a thread like this one in the first place? The title itself would seem at odds with what many still consider a hobby. I don't think it's so much "wishing for a crash" as much as just wishing to keep the discussion centered more on cardboard and less on commodities. JMHO.




    +1 and excellent point/observation Tim!

  • Options
    "Do we really even need a thread like this one in the first place? The title itself would seem at odds with what many still consider a hobby. I don't think it's so much "wishing for a crash" as much as just wishing to keep the discussion centered more on cardboard and less on commodities. JMHO. "





    +1
  • Options
    Gemyanks10Gemyanks10 Posts: 1,164 ✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: VictorLaszlo
    "Do we really even need a thread like this one in the first place? The title itself would seem at odds with what many still consider a hobby. I don't think it's so much "wishing for a crash" as much as just wishing to keep the discussion centered more on cardboard and less on commodities. JMHO. "


    +1


    + a million
    Always looking for OPC "tape intact" baseball wax boxes, and 1984 OPC baseball PSA 10's for my set. Please PM or email me if you have any available.
  • Options
    VintagemanEdVintagemanEd Posts: 922 ✭✭✭
    There we go with people posting that they don't like the thread......i may be in the minority but I just don't understand why someone posts if they don't like the thread
  • Options
    grote15grote15 Posts: 29,540 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: VintagemanEd

    There we go with people posting that they don't like the thread......i may be in the minority but I just don't understand why someone posts if they don't like the thread






    This is a sports card discussion board. I would hope that all opinions about a particular topic, both pro and con, would be welcomed.



    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
  • Options
    lahmejoonlahmejoon Posts: 1,672 ✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: grote15
    Originally posted by: VintagemanEd
    There we go with people posting that they don't like the thread......i may be in the minority but I just don't understand why someone posts if they don't like the thread



    This is a sports card discussion board. I would hope that all opinions about a particular topic, both pro and con, would be welcomed.


    +1
  • Options
    Gemyanks10Gemyanks10 Posts: 1,164 ✭✭✭
    I think in all reality that it's Bernie Sanders running up all these prices. Don't say I didn't warn you guys. We'll see...there is something inside of me that screams Bernie..Brent?
    Always looking for OPC "tape intact" baseball wax boxes, and 1984 OPC baseball PSA 10's for my set. Please PM or email me if you have any available.
  • Options
    kingnascarkingnascar Posts: 636 ✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: Stone193
    I'm retired.

    I've been in the hobby perennially for almost 30 years - here for over 12.

    There's plenty of people here who just enjoy their projects - period.

    If someone is cashing out due to these buyers? Congratulations on your sale.

    I'd like to see more threads on the fun people are having with their respective projects.



    +1

  • Options
    bouncebounce Posts: 1,094 ✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: RookieWax
    I don't see anybody being proud of or enjoying their display of barrels of oil in their man-cave.
    Cards can be investments and be enjoyed at the same time....unlike any of those things you are trying to compare them to.


    Couple things. First, I'm not the one who called them a "commodity". I said the following - "I think they are much more akin to art, at least the pre-60s stuff)...". Please quote me in full context next time.

    Second, how many people do you know that display say TEN 1955 Sandy Koufax PSA 8s in their mancave? image

    Originally posted by: ndleo
    I started building Chrome Refractor football sets...Collectors need to chill out and spend more time looking for another angle rather than wishing for a crash.

    It doesn't matter if it is a bull or bear market, there is always a good investment out there somewhere, you just need to find it.


    I literally laughed out loud at this...as my primary focus lately has been Chrome football refractor sets. I've always liked building sets, the chase is fun and doing these sets actually slowed my spending way down but kept my collecting enjoyment factor quite high. If you're building these a card at a time, drop me a PM, maybe we can help each other out.

    I'm not "wishing for a crash", it wouldn't do me any good anyway. I, like 99% of the population, was never in that high end market to start with. However, it is impacting other collectors as the lower grades pricing is following on these same cards.

    Go see the post about all the Drysdale's that got bought yesterday. Did the price of PSA 4 Drysdale all of sudden double? According to those sales they probably should now.

    Another fun one...1990 Fleer basketball boxes. Are they a good investment now? I doubt they're "hot" because all of sudden basketball collectors finally found these?

    It's gotten irrational, but there are a lot of people trying to give us all the reasons why it makes sense. That is also a major sign of a top.
  • Options
    $7.50 and a free ocular exam says the Drysdale run is someone buying them to cause a stir among all of you babies.
  • Options
    travis ttravis t Posts: 1,185 ✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: doctorperfecto

    $7.50 and a free ocular exam says the Drysdale run is someone buying them to cause a stir among all of you babies.




    Strange. The first image that came to my mind was that of a toilet bowl flushing in reverse.
  • Options
    no i'm in the northern hemisphere
  • Options
    3BoyzTrading3BoyzTrading Posts: 798 ✭✭
    It seems like every PSA 10 auction of any HOF rookie card from any of the eBay top consignors auctions goes for more than current Buy it Nows from other sellers.

  • Options
    Originally posted by: 3BoyzTrading

    It seems like every PSA 10 auction of any HOF rookie card from any of the eBay top consignors auctions goes for more than current Buy it Nows from other sellers.









    Nothing to see here, move along image

  • Options
    travis ttravis t Posts: 1,185 ✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: some dude at that other forum

    concentrate on your game. not their's.





    Word.
  • Options
    Originally posted by: 3BoyzTrading

    I still have a hard time believing that "new blood" decide, on a whim, to pay 3x to 8x for a graded card and did no research on the history of sales. That's the hard part for me. I make close to six figures and spending 10 percent of my disposable income on any card is tough. All this "new blood' apparently have to be making 7 figures to throw the kind of money going around. However, they surely didn't get to the point they are now by throwing money around like it's apparently been tossed. We're talking about new highs every week.




    This is the aspect of the run-up that makes absolutely no sense to me. How does a bunch of guys decide, all of a sudden, and at the same time, that the Yaz rookie in PSA 8 (to pick just one example) has for years been selling at ~30% of where it should be, and start buying them up at 3X their historic value? Even if a particular individual did believe that the card was underpriced and thought he could make some $ in that card, why bid at 3X right out of the box in the first auctions for that card? Why not bid on a few at 1.5X and see if you can snag one at that price level, and leave yourself some room for appreciation? Unless you are part of a group trying to drive up the broader market and not just the market for that particular card...
  • Options
    sushihotwingssushihotwings Posts: 452 ✭✭✭
    I for one am taking advantage of the idea that these whales seem to only be comfortable with a handful of sources for buying. If I see wide price discrepancy between an auction and buy it now I have taken advantage of this. We all can. Unless of course you believe you are falling right into their trap. Got to do what you are comfortable with and only on items you really want. If you are doing this just to capture a profit difference than you are likely to get in a pinch at some point. I buy graded cards from sellers all the time with low but positive feedback. I'm sure I will be burnt at some point, but not so far.
    On the hunt high grade Star Basketball.
  • Options
    Rickey Henderson psa 9 1980 topps in a PWCC auction last night went for $2275. Shilled, won't pay or one massive idiot with an overpay of epic proportions. No sensible human can possibly think that is a rational price.
  • Options
    rcmb3220rcmb3220 Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭✭
    I'm wondering if the idea is to pump prices up, then sell a few, then take advantage of PayPal and eBay generous return policies on the rest? Seems like a lot of money to tie up but it makes more sense than "this is the new norm"

    Luckily I've only seen slight increases in my price range.
  • Options
    travis ttravis t Posts: 1,185 ✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: VictorLaszlo

    Rickey Henderson psa 9 1980 topps in a PWCC auction last night went for $2275. Shilled, won't pay or one massive idiot with an overpay of epic proportions. No sensible human can possibly think that is a rational price.




    For the sake of argument, what if someone took the description 100% literally and felt the card might look better in a BVG slab? Just asking.
  • Options
    Originally posted by: travis t

    Originally posted by: VictorLaszlo

    Rickey Henderson psa 9 1980 topps in a PWCC auction last night went for $2275. Shilled, won't pay or one massive idiot with an overpay of epic proportions. No sensible human can possibly think that is a rational price.




    For the sake of argument, what if someone took the description 100% literally and felt the card might look better in a BVG slab? Just asking.




    likely makes the "winner" even more of an idiot, if possible.



  • Options
    travis ttravis t Posts: 1,185 ✭✭✭
    I'm scratching my scalp, same as you. But I don't expect to be having a last laugh over this. The Henderson card is taking off again and new plateaus are being created. Somebody desperately wants to be the next guy to flash a GEM MINT example of that card. It will happen.
  • Options
    Originally posted by: travis t

    I'm scratching my scalp, same as you. But I don't expect to be having a last laugh over this. The Henderson card is taking off again and new plateaus are being created. Somebody desperately wants to be the next guy to flash a GEM MINT example of that card. It will happen.








    probably, maybe. But none of the Rickey 9's on eBay current, or the ones that ended last night will generate a 10 barring a bribe or really , really bad eyes by a grader.
  • Options
    Originally posted by: VictorLaszlo

    Originally posted by: travis t

    Originally posted by: VictorLaszlo

    Rickey Henderson psa 9 1980 topps in a PWCC auction last night went for $2275. Shilled, won't pay or one massive idiot with an overpay of epic proportions. No sensible human can possibly think that is a rational price.




    For the sake of argument, what if someone took the description 100% literally and felt the card might look better in a BVG slab? Just asking.




    likely makes the "winner" even more of an idiot, if possible.







    Prior to the last month, how many times has that card in PSA 9 ever gone for more than $500? Perhaps never? Now, 2 guys decide it is actually worth 4X at $2000+, and 2 more are in at $1000? Come on...

  • Options
    travis ttravis t Posts: 1,185 ✭✭✭
    We are an intelligent group. One of our members said so. Who'd care to contradict that?
  • Options
    Dpeck100Dpeck100 Posts: 10,910 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think I recall a PWCC HE eclipsing a grand in the past year.

    There are a lot of dealers and collectors that play the review game so perhaps this is the plan here.

  • Options
    travis ttravis t Posts: 1,185 ✭✭✭
    Nothing on record of a 1000+ sale per VCP, but that doesn't mean it couldn't have happened. They miss a few.



    The card has experienced a gradual climb until the recent run-up on all things edible. The pricing activity should definitely not avoid suspicion or examination. The reasoning will surface soon enough.
  • Options
    Dpeck100Dpeck100 Posts: 10,910 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: travis t
    Nothing on record of a 1000+ sale per VCP, but that doesn't mean it couldn't have happened. They miss a few.

    The card has experienced a gradual climb until the recent run-up on all things edible. The pricing activity should definitely not avoid suspicion or examination. The reasoning will surface soon enough.



    Right after PWCC rolled out the HE designation a lot of discussion took place and I know there was one that went for significantly more than the VCP average.



  • Options
    travis ttravis t Posts: 1,185 ✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: Dpeck100

    Originally posted by: travis t

    Nothing on record of a 1000+ sale per VCP, but that doesn't mean it couldn't have happened. They miss a few.



    The card has experienced a gradual climb until the recent run-up on all things edible. The pricing activity should definitely not avoid suspicion or examination. The reasoning will surface soon enough.






    Right after PWCC rolled out the HE designation a lot of discussion took place and I know there was one that went for significantly more than the VCP average.











    Were that the case, it might be logical to think the same person(s) could have been in the mix for last night's example as well.
  • Options
    Originally posted by: abkindc

    Originally posted by: VictorLaszlo

    Originally posted by: travis t

    Originally posted by: VictorLaszlo

    Rickey Henderson psa 9 1980 topps in a PWCC auction last night went for $2275. Shilled, won't pay or one massive idiot with an overpay of epic proportions. No sensible human can possibly think that is a rational price.




    For the sake of argument, what if someone took the description 100% literally and felt the card might look better in a BVG slab? Just asking.




    likely makes the "winner" even more of an idiot, if possible.







    Prior to the last month, how many times has that card in PSA 9 ever gone for more than $500? Perhaps never? Now, 2 guys decide it is actually worth 4X at $2000+, and 2 more are in at $1000? Come on...







    It's rather obvious at this point

  • Options
    grote15grote15 Posts: 29,540 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Has anyone heard of a PWCC HE card bumping from PSA 9 to PSA 10?


    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
  • Options
    MULLINS5MULLINS5 Posts: 4,517 ✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: grote15

    Has anyone heard of a PWCC HE card bumping from PSA 9 to PSA 10?




    When a card bumps is it assigned a new serial number?

  • Options
    grote15grote15 Posts: 29,540 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: MULLINS5

    Originally posted by: grote15

    Has anyone heard of a PWCC HE card bumping from PSA 9 to PSA 10?




    When a card bumps is it assigned a new serial number?





    No, unless it was cracked out and resubmitted raw, but I'd imagine that a review would be the preferred option for a card like that.


    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Sign In or Register to comment.