How badly would I be overpaying for this pack?

ChanceP

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1981-TOPPS-FOOTBALL-UNOPENED-CELLO-PACK-PSA-10-PRISTINE-GEM-VINTAGE-/252088618762?hash=item3ab1a70f0a:gAMAAOSwiLdV9Qj2


Not sure if the link will work here, but its a 1981 Topps Football Unopened Pack PSA 10


Total newb here so excuse the beginner questions but I have a few


First off, the pack is $550, how badly am I overpaying for this if I bought it? I really don't mind overpaying a bit because I LOVE the idea its a PSA 10

I'm not sure Ive seen a regular wax pack at PSA 10 (granted I haven't looked much), are the cello packs easier to find in PSA 10 than the wax packs?


Also, how about the full BBCE wrapped boxes at like $1800, how badly are those overpriced?



I'm not looking to flip or sell these anytime in the future, if ever really, this is just something I really enjoy so O don't mind overpaying 10 or 20% but I don't wanna be paying like double




Thanks for any and all replies, if I violated any rules or anything posting a link lemme know and I wont do it again. Thanks again

JoeBanzai

The way unopened is going you should just buy it.

49ersGuy

Personally I would rather take the money and buy a box of 1981 football. Should be able to get a BBCE wrapped box for between $1500 to $1800.

grote15

Cellos are far easier to get a PSA 10 grade on than wax packs. I've gotten at least a dozen PSA 10s on cello packs over the years but never one on a wax pack.

BeRoyalKC

I want to know the criteria for grading packs. I've sent in some beauties that have come back 9 and have no clue what would make it a 10. I've also seen some 9s that look like some 7s

grote15

Originally posted by: BeRoyalKC

I want to know the criteria for grading packs. I've sent in some beauties that have come back 9 and have no clue what would make it a 10. I've also seen some 9s that look like some 7s

Condition of wrapper is the primary factor. Seal on back is also important and centering of the wrapper to a lesser degree. Centering of top card (if a cello) is also a factor. Most wax packs have some degree of scuffing or cracks in the color of the wax paper on the corners which is what makes high grades tougher to come by vs thicker cello wrap, which is less prone to wear. The white box on back of a cello pack wherein the product code and copyright information appear is also a factor for cello packs. Many packs "that look like 7s" have also suffered some degree of damage after holdering, particularly wax packs. At the end of the day, as with cards, the difference between a higher end 9 and a 10 is not really significant (except for value, lol).

ChanceP

Thanks so much for the replies guys I always appreciate it, love reading what you guys have to say

grote15

As for this particular pack, I would at least ask for better scans (right side up, preferably) and a back scan of the pack, too. I don't understand how a seller can list a pack, ask $550 for it, and not post a scan of the back of the pack. Also, it looks like there may be some imperfection on top edge of the pack~tough to tell from the scan, but if you're going to spend $550 on this pack, it should be perfect, imo. I would also try messaging the seller to see if he might come down a bit in price or is open to a purchase off ebay at a lower price (via direct paypal invoice).

grote15

Also, the pop report shows there are 5 PSA 10 1981 Topps football cellos in existence, so it is very likely this will not be the last PSA 10 you will see, especially since this is a very popular year for football with the Montana RC. Conversely, there is just one PSA 10 1981 wax pack in existence.

vols1

This auction only has '1 watching', probably because it's massively overpriced!

mtcards

My take on pack grading.....


Since it costs an arm and a leg to grade a pack, the scarcity is based on the premise that not many packs are graded. When/If pack grading becomes a little more cost effective, more packs will be sent in and the scarcity of these packs will decrease. Unless its a 86 Fleer Basketball or other regularly expensive pack, I dont see there being a demand for these once more get into circulation

BLUEJAYWAY

Originally posted by: mtcards

My take on pack grading.....





Since it costs an arm and a leg to grade a pack, the scarcity is based on the premise that not many packs are graded. When/If pack grading becomes a little more cost effective, more packs will be sent in and the scarcity of these packs will decrease. Unless its a 86 Fleer Basketball or other regularly expensive pack, I dont see there being a demand for these once more get into circulation

I believe your quoted scenario would apply to single cards as well. I have 2 close friends who have been collecting since the early 1950's. They are collectors first,not flippers. Hardly sell anything. They also do not buy into grading. At such time when their collections are liquidated these cards will enter the market,to be graded or not. So these cards will affect the market prices, graded or not. I'm sure they are not the only collectors out there with the same set of conditions. One can only hope that the demand exceed's the supply to keep prices stable for raw, or the high end high graded examples are less in number (low pop) for the demand once more of the "old timers" cards hit the market. Which they will.

baz518

For that price I'd rather search for a slabbed pack with Montana showing on front. I would think you can get a PSA 8 for under $550.

grote15

Originally posted by: mtcards

My take on pack grading.....





Since it costs an arm and a leg to grade a pack, the scarcity is based on the premise that not many packs are graded. When/If pack grading becomes a little more cost effective, more packs will be sent in and the scarcity of these packs will decrease. Unless its a 86 Fleer Basketball or other regularly expensive pack, I dont see there being a demand for these once more get into circulation

PSA has been grading packs for over a decade now, and prices for higher grade wax and cello packs, at least through the 1970s remains very strong and I don't see that changing anytime soon. I can see it happening for packs from lesser valued years where there is no premium unless the pack grades PSA 9 or 10 (remember the 1981 baseball wax pack that hammered for $400), but that is still uncertain.. For 1981 football, though, the value is there and the market for key years like those is likely to remain strong, as well.