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More on the Pogue biggies
tradedollarnut
Posts: 20,198 ✭✭✭✭✭
tradedollarnut
Posts: 20,198 ✭✭✭✭✭
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The bottom line is this: nobody knows what the values of coins like these are. Only a handful of people can afford them in the first place. They are either unique or semi-unique. They have tremendous cultural and historical importance. ....nope, not even the Wogster.
Sure we do. The ultra rarities all follow in concert with minimal variation. You just take a recent value realized and extrapolate
I'm quoting the article verbatim. One can only assume that Coin World experts researched and wrote it along with inputs from Stacks-Bowers.
Frankly, the price range on the 1804 from various sources interviewed and bidding, put that at anywhere from $4.7 MILL to $12 MILL. Quite a range. And very surprising for such a well known coin. Even Stacks-Bowers listed the potential reserve at $4 MILL - $15 MILL.
Seems to me that the majority of imporrtant players have no clue what it's worth today. This is quite a change from 1999. Recall that it has been said that the price of rarities only marches higher over time. That's what they've done for 100-225 years. It's now clear that some no longer have that view point, especially with the 1804 PF68. It doesn't matter if this has to do with the status of the coin's surfaces, it's status in a REG set or not, or something else. It all plays a role. The 1794 $ SP66 couldn't have had its 2013 value determined by a prior sale of $2-$3 MILL and then extrapolated. Likewise for the Child's 1804 from 1999 to 2016.
Sure we do. The ultra rarities all follow in concert with minimal variation. You just take a recent value realized and extrapolate
…up or down.
The most recent sales of a 38-O Half Dollar and 94-S Dime were clear "downticks". Depending on how we define "ultra rarity", we can probably add some more coins to that list.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
From reading that it sure does appear there was a real bidder other than the consignor all the way up. Glad that's finally cleared up. I suspect an arrangement will be reached soon enough.
The bottom line is this: nobody knows what the values of coins like these are. Only a handful of people can afford them in the first place. They are either unique or semi-unique. They have tremendous cultural and historical importance. ....nope, not even the Wogster.
I dunno...appearances can be deceiving. Nothing in the article confirms that there was a real bidder other than the consignor.
Sure we do. The ultra rarities all follow in concert with minimal variation. You just take a recent value realized and extrapolate
or perhaps interpolate
From reading that it sure does appear there was a real bidder other than the consignor all the way up. Glad that's finally cleared up. I suspect an arrangement will be reached soon enough.
The bottom line is this: nobody knows what the values of coins like these are. Only a handful of people can afford them in the first place. They are either unique or semi-unique. They have tremendous cultural and historical importance. ....nope, not even the Wogster.
I dunno...appearances can be deceiving. Nothing in the article confirms that there was a real bidder other than the consignor.
After seeing the auction with my own eyes I still have a hard time kicking this notion out of my head as well. The 1822 $5 bidding really bothered me
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
What was the passed bid on the 22?
I think 6.4 was the last bid. Close to that
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
From reading that it sure does appear there was a real bidder other than the consignor all the way up. Glad that's finally cleared up. I suspect an arrangement will be reached soon enough.
The bottom line is this: nobody knows what the values of coins like these are. Only a handful of people can afford them in the first place. They are either unique or semi-unique. They have tremendous cultural and historical importance. ....nope, not even the Wogster.
I dunno...appearances can be deceiving. Nothing in the article confirms that there was a real bidder other than the consignor.
After seeing the auction with my own eyes I still have a hard time kicking this notion out of my head as well. The 1822 $5 bidding really bothered me
mark
I have always felt that "honest" auctions have NO RESERVE. Pogue in this venue can bid up his own property against himself to establish an artifical market value. The shame is on the auction houses that allow for reserves.
OINK
I have always felt that "honest" auctions have NO RESERVE. Pogue in this venue can bid up his own property against himself to establish an artifical market value. The shame is on the auction houses that allow for reserves.
OINK
There's nothing dishonest about a reserved auction, as long as the amount of the reserve is disclosed before the auction.
And as long as shill bidding is possible, the lack of a reserve does not guaranty an honest auction.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
"If I say something in the woods and my wife isn't there to hear it.....am I still wrong?"
My Washington Quarter Registry set...in progress
Is it possible that the owners had sellers remorse before the auction but it was too late in the entire process and this is the result?
Of course it's possible, and likely. But the reserve, even if ridiculously high, could have been disclosed before the auction.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I have always felt that "honest" auctions have NO RESERVE. Pogue in this venue can bid up his own property against himself to establish an artifical market value. The shame is on the auction houses that allow for reserves.
OINK
"There's nothing dishonest about a reserved auction, as long as the amount of the reserve is disclosed before the auction.
And as long as shill bidding is possible, the lack of a reserve does not guaranty an honest auction."
With all due respect to the nature of coin auctions for many years, this is an example of an auction house colluding, directly or indirectly, with a consignor. In this case the "game" was rigged against the bidder as the property was never really available for sale. I think that Pogue just wanted to establish a market value. Too bad that anyone got sucked into his scheme.
Shame on Pogue and Shame on Stacks Bowers.
OINK
Look, anybody in this business knows that auction games are played, from a shill or bid your own coin with no buy back cost standpoint or auction "partnerships" to rip something on the buy side. They don't mean that they are ethical or help the hobby.
We had best be careful with the integrity of the process lest people run for the door. Counterfeiting of slabs and coins, combined with shenanigans like this hurts our credibility within the collecting community as a whole. It only takes a generation or two to change the landscape in a negative direction. Prices will follow.
John
siliconvalleycoins.com
Sure we do. The ultra rarities all follow in concert with minimal variation. You just take a recent value realized and extrapolate
…up or down.
The most recent sales of a 38-O Half Dollar and 94-S Dime were clear "downticks". Depending on how we define "ultra rarity", we can probably add some more coins to that list.
Party pooper.
Coin Rarities Online
I have always felt that "honest" auctions have NO RESERVE. Pogue in this venue can bid up his own property against himself to establish an artificial market value. The shame is on the auction houses that allow for reserves.
OINK
You could take that logic one step further and state that "jump bids" at auctions that become the ultimate winning bid artificially inflate the market value as well.
siliconvalleycoins.com
Often jump bids represent actual competing bids.
For example, if a dealer was given two competing bids to execute, one at $1000 another at $1500, and the lot opens at $500, the dealer may jump the bid to $1000 or $1100 to on behalf of the $1500 bidder. He has to "clear" the $1000 bidder to actually execute the bids fairly and competitively. Otherwise, if the lot sells for let's say $800, this dealer will have one bidder who will want to know why you failed to execute his maximum bid.
I believe the coins will trade eventually in private party sales at some point. The auction was an excellent means to liquidate the rest of the collection, and keeping very high reserves on the two big coins just meant that they wanted moon money for them and it was not happening at this point in time. It will be interesting to see if they trade between now and 2025 and at what price. Given the owner is not in need of the money, it may be a while. But never forget that heirs in the long term most always sell. The coins will be back on the market in the future, date just unknown right now.
"You could take that logic one step further and state that "jump bids" at auctions that become the ultimate winning bid artificially inflate the market value as well. "
Often jump bids represent actual competing bids.
For example, if a dealer was given two competing bids to execute, one at $1000 another at $1500, and the lot opens at $500, the dealer may jump the bid to $1000 or $1100 to on behalf of the $1500 bidder. He has to "clear" the $1000 bidder to actually execute the bids fairly and competitively. Otherwise, if the lot sells for let's say $800, this dealer will have one bidder who will want to know why you failed to execute his maximum bid.
That's not really a jump bid imo since there are 2 different customers, even if only one dealer executing both bids. Now, remove one of those bidders, and the dealer jumps the bid of the current higher bidder from $1,000 to $1,500....for whatever reason. That's a one bidder - jump bid.
I remember when the Garrett 1804 dollar in EF-40 sold for $400,000 and just a few years later for $180,000.
Yes, and the 1794 $ SP66 dollar during the 1989 market peak sold/was offered for approx $1 MILL. And not too long after that sold for somewhere around $400K. For those that hold these type of coins for 15-20 years or more, they almost always come out the other end on top....with that being mainly due to the inflationary money supply forces in play over the past 70 years. 0-5 year holds are pot luck and more at the mercy of shorter term market cycles. For the owner of the only "legal" to own 1933 $20 Saint, they might have to wait a L-O-N-G time to come out on top, only because of an unseen market fundamental called Izzy. A significant percentage of the high end/investor/speculator coin market peaked back in 1989. Those coins are not 1804 or 1794 dollars.
It seems to me that major rarities trade against each other, not the lesser coins of their ilk. Thus the price of the best known 1804 dollar is more related to the price for the 1794 SP66 dollar than anything else. It is about the pecking order for the greatest coins IMHO. The 1822 coin is in the discussion as well, but the low grade (not being MS) holds it back from the very top.
I believe the coins will trade eventually in private party sales at some point. The auction was an excellent means to liquidate the rest of the collection, and keeping very high reserves on the two big coins just meant that they wanted moon money for them and it was not happening at this point in time. It will be interesting to see if they trade between now and 2025 and at what price. Given the owner is not in need of the money, it may be a while. But never forget that heirs in the long term most always sell. The coins will be back on the market in the future, date just unknown right now.
Good points! Seems to me that Pogue put the two coins up with reserves and then, just before the sale, decided he just wanted to hold them for awhile longer. I don't think it was just about the MONEY. He has enough of that! I think it was more about his love for those two coins and he wanted to keep them for awhile longer. Steve
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
I disagree with this remark. I have been reporting upon sales of Great Rarities for more than twenty years. Other than QDB, no living person has written more about Great Rarities, or more in depth. I discuss the valuations of such coins with people who can afford them and are interested in buying them. I know or knew well dealers who have bought Great Rarities, including 1804 dollars, for inventory and/or promotional purposes.
It might be fair to say that it is impossible to know what any two retail buyers will pay, or sometimes it is impossible to know how much just one unknown bidder will pay who is pitted against an aggressive reserve. Nevertheless, I can fairly estimate wholesale and modest retail prices. I have some idea as to what multiple people would have been willing to pay for that 1804 dollar, if it had been unreserved.
Generally, in many (but not all) major auctions, for an occasional coin, there are two people who are willing to pay multiples of wholesale or lower-retail prices. Such bidding brings about an extremely strong price.
In a major auction a few years ago, there was a quarter that then had a wholesale value from 30k to 40k, and a retail value of 42.5 to 57.5k at most. It sold for more than 150k! Does that result mean that it was worth 150k? I do not think so. That was an above-market price.
The values of other 1804 dollars and of other Great Rarities are factors in the determination of the value of the Childs-Pogue coin. While no one an predict all bidding behavior, research and proper analysis can shed a great deal of light upon what several people will pay for a coin. While extremely strong prices might sometimes end up in the stratosphere, at above-market levels, I honestly believe that analysts may attain an understanding of moderate and strong prices for individual coins.
1856-O Double Eagles and other Great Rarities that I have seen
What are Auction Prices?
Pogue Family Coin Collection Part 18 – Half Dollars and Bust Dollars Fare Well in 4th Auction
Roadrunner: " nobody knows what the values of coins like these are. Only a handful of people can afford them in the first place .."
I disagree with this remark. I have been reporting upon sales of Great Rarities for more than twenty years. Other than QDB, no living person has written more about Great Rarities, or more in depth. I discuss the valuations of such coins with people who can afford them and are interested in buying them. I know or knew well dealers who have bought Great Rarities, including 1804 dollars, for inventory and/or promotional purposes....
Since you included my name before that quote, it appears you are attributing it to me. In fact, it was a quote from the article in the first post. I had nothing to do with it. It was posted to prompt discussion.
While I generally agree that the values of these monster coins can be estimated, it's certainly not even close to an exact science. We have TDN who places the value of the 1804 PF68 at down around $4 MILL. Then you have the Pogues at something at $11 MILL or higher. That's quite a range from 2 respected players with the capacity to buy them. Even S/B listed the reserve/value of the coin as something from $4-$15 MILL....nice range. I'm sure for the 1794 SP66 $ the range between top players would be from $8-$11 MILL. Not exactly nailed down.
For a good exercise estimate what J-1776 would bring today at unreserved auction. The range on that should be quite wide too. What do you say when the 1804 NGC PF65 $10 gold jumps in value from $500K to $5 MILL? Obviously, more than a few got that one wrong.
Actually, I said $5M. I said that I personally wouldn't pay $4M....there's a difference.
Understood. But, not be willing to pay $4 MILL is important as well. In any case, we have a wide band from $5 - $11+ MILL.
NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
RIP "BEAR"
I stand corrected. I apologize for the mis-attribution, which was just an accident.
Roadrunner: "While I generally agree that the values of these monster coins can be estimated, it's certainly not even close to an exact science."
Inexactness notwithstanding, I have a feeling that I failed to communicate an overall theme. In the event that bidders bid a coin, in an unreserved auction, up to extremely strong levels, my market value estimates would not necessarily be wrong; the bidders would be indicating a willingness to pay above-market prices. In my articles, and elsewhere, I defend or substantiate my estimates with data, research regarding coin buyers, relevant experience and logic.
Please consider the example that I put forth above to illustrate a concept: In a major auction a few years ago, there was a quarter that then had a wholesale value from 30k to 40k, and a retail value of 42.5 to 57.5k at most. It sold for more than 150k! Does that result mean that it was worth 150k? I do not think so. That was an above-market price.
The fact that someone was willing to pay more than 150k for a coin that dealers would inventory for 30k to 40k does not mean that an estimate of a retail value from 42.5 to 57.5k is wrong. It means that the bidder either did not know what he was doing or, more likely, was aware that he was paying multiples of the wholesale value and decided that he really wanted the coin, anyway. It is perfectly legal for buyers to pay above-market prices if they feel like doing so. Does that mean that such a quarter was then worth more than 150k? I do not think so.
Suppose, hypothetically that the reserve for the 1804 was 12.42 (= 3 X 4.14)! I do not know the reserve. I am just saying 'suppose' to make a point here. If someone paid $13 million for this 1804, would that mean that it is worth $13 million? No, it would mean that someone paid an extremely strong price for whatever reason. There is no depth at that level! It would have been an above-market price, not a value. Copyright 2016 Greg Reynolds
The idea that the ultra rarities (or any part of the market) only go up is just an optimistic fallacy that collectors and dealers choose to believe. The evidence proves otherwise.
I don't know of any investment that has no downside risk
You mean there is a moving reserve?
Why is it that when some small seller is caught shill bidding on eBay, that person is considered lower than dirt but the large auction houses can do it with impunity?
What does this say about the reliability of auctions for pricing? Is it that coin prices have dropped or was it that prices a few years ago were inflated more frequently with shills/house bids (when there were more active fish in the pond)?
Legally, I understand the difference between disclosure and non-disclosure, but including it in an obscure portion of the terms of sale seems misleading. You see it only once when you register to bid for the first time/first auction. I think it should be disclosed when a house bid has been entered on a specific item and that ethically speaking, the bidder should be informed that he or she is in fact (and not just may be) bidding against a computer or the owner.
Whether there were real bids or not I dont know, but if I would try to buy one of the two coins now after the auction I would not rely on these buyback prices.
You could end up buying a coin now for 7 Mio that might bring at an unreserved auction only 3 Mio if sold again a year later.
I really believe the plan for auctioning the two coins was to have a high buyback price and then based on that try to sell the coins some times after the auction.
Whether there were real bids or not I dont know, but if I would try to buy one of the two coins now after the auction I would not rely on these buyback prices.
You could end up buying a coin now for 7 Mio that might bring at an unreserved auction only 3 Mio if sold again a year later.
That sounds very believable. However, if that was the "plan", it seems they didn't execute the plan well since everyone seems to think that the bidding wasn't real.
I will research the matter further. My current understanding is that, under NY State Law, an undisclosed reserve is legal and the auction firm may bid for the purpose of pushing the level to approach the undisclosed reserve. There was an announcement by the Stack's-Bowers auctioneer before the auction began, and it was strongly implied that there would be such activity. ? I am not aware of any evidence that the reserves were changing during the activity.
Unlike most of the participants in this thread, I was at the auction. It is hard to explain the atmosphere. It seemed to me that most of us there were thinking that the auction firm was bidding up to a reserve, on those two lots.
Sullivan: "There are many factors influencing the price the error coin ultimately sells for, and although auction prices are an excellent tool, knowledge of private transactions and real demand are essential to really understand a coin's true value."
I agree, of course. I hope that Mr. Sullivan has read my earlier posts to this thread. In any one auction, some prices may be in wholesale ranges while others may be in retail ranges. Some might even be beyond retail. Occasionally, a coin will sell for a fire-sale price in the lower part of the corresponding wholesale range. People should not think of all auction prices as market prices. To interpret auction results in a meaningful manner, there is a need to know about coin business norms, the precise characteristics of some of the coins being offered, consignors, bidders and the overall market environment, including (as Sullivan emphasizes) relevant private transactions. Copyright 2016 Greg Reynolds
Unlike most of the participants in this thread, I was at the auction. It is hard to explain the atmosphere. It seemed to me that most of us there were thinking that the auction firm was bidding up to a reserve, on those two lots.
I was there. The auction firm clearly explained that the seller reserved the right to bid on their own coins. Most could not have missed that point, and all of the big players already knew that before stepping into the auction hall that night. Having said that, the long drawn out dramatic methodology of the bidding, I think, made some lose track of the fact that perhaps that indeed was happening.
For me, the fact that the bidding on the 1822 HE went backwards by 1/2 mil was too surreal, too unnatural to be real.
Unlike most of the participants in this thread, I was at the auction. It is hard to explain the atmosphere. It seemed to me that most of us there were thinking that the auction firm was bidding up to a reserve, on those two lots.
I was there. The auction firm clearly explained that the seller reserved the right to bid on their own coins. Most could not have missed that point, and all of the big players already knew that before stepping into the auction hall that night. Having said that, the long drawn out dramatic methodology of the bidding, I think, made some lose track of the fact that perhaps that indeed was happening.
For me, the fact that the bidding on the 1822 HE went backwards by 1/2 mil was too surreal, too unnatural to be real.
Thats interesting, what exactly happened ? Why did the bidding go backwards by 1/2 mil ?
Unlike most of the participants in this thread, I was at the auction. It is hard to explain the atmosphere. It seemed to me that most of us there were thinking that the auction firm was bidding up to a reserve, on those two lots.
I was there. The auction firm clearly explained that the seller reserved the right to bid on their own coins. Most could not have missed that point, and all of the big players already knew that before stepping into the auction hall that night. Having said that, the long drawn out dramatic methodology of the bidding, I think, made some lose track of the fact that perhaps that indeed was happening.
For me, the fact that the bidding on the 1822 HE went backwards by 1/2 mil was too surreal, too unnatural to be real.
Thats interesting, what exactly happened ? Why did the bidding go backwards by 1/2 mil ?
Opening bid was on the 1822 HE was $6mil. After a a few minutes pregnant pause, a bidder on the phone bank to the right (facing) manned by Brian Kendrella, Pres of S/B, asked if the house would accept a bid of $5.5 mil. Auctioneer Melissa K looked to Kris K sitting next to her, who nodded her head in acceptance of the bid. Then after a few minutes pause Kris K got the bid back on increment with a house bid of $5.6mil. After another long pause, bidding then went between Brian and Kris to a book bid of $6.4, where it passed.
My gut reaction at the time - after the 1804-no sale, perhaps the seller was rejiggering the reserve on the 1822.
Unlike most of the participants in this thread, I was at the auction. It is hard to explain the atmosphere. It seemed to me that most of us there were thinking that the auction firm was bidding up to a reserve, on those two lots.
I was there. The auction firm clearly explained that the seller reserved the right to bid on their own coins. Most could not have missed that point, and all of the big players already knew that before stepping into the auction hall that night. Having said that, the long drawn out dramatic methodology of the bidding, I think, made some lose track of the fact that perhaps that indeed was happening.
For me, the fact that the bidding on the 1822 HE went backwards by 1/2 mil was too surreal, too unnatural to be real.
Thats interesting, what exactly happened ? Why did the bidding go backwards by 1/2 mil ?
Opening bid was on the 1822 HE was $6mil. After a a few minutes pregnant pause, a bidder on the phone bank to the right (facing) manned by Brian Kendrella, Pres of S/B, asked if the house would accept a bid of $5.5 mil. Auctioneer Melissa K looked to Kris K sitting next to her, who nodded her head in acceptance of the bid. Then after a few minutes pause Kris K got the bid back on increment with a house bid of $5.6mil. After another long pause, bidding then went between Brian and Kris to a book bid of $6.4, where it passed.
My gut reaction at the time - after the 1804-no sale, perhaps the seller was rejiggering the reserve on the 1822.
thanks, thats very helpful.
Ronyahski: "Opening bid was on the 1822 HE was $6mil. After a a few minutes pregnant pause, a bidder on the phone bank to the right (facing) manned by BK, asked if the house would accept a bid of $5.5 mil. Auctioneer looked to CK sitting next to her, who nodded her head in acceptance of the bid. Then after a few minutes pause auctioneer got the bid back on increment with a house bid of $5.6mil. After another long pause, bidding then went between BK and CK to a book bid of $6.4, where it passed." (I abbreviated or omitted the names in his statement. In some cases, it is not a good idea to mention names without permissions from those named.)
Although I do not remember all the details right now, this passage sounds correct enough for the present discussion, and might very well be correct. I thank Ronyahski for his recounting of events.
I do remember that the auctioneer started by "looking for" a bid of $6 million. Someone asked to bid 5.5. From my vantage point, I could not tell if that person was BK. Like Ronyahski, I do remember CK nodding her head and accepting the 5.5 bid.
Ronyahski: "My gut reaction at the time - after the 1804-no sale, perhaps the seller was rejiggering the reserve on the 1822."
I would not put forth such a statement. Is there much of a connection between the value of the 1804 and the value of the 1822?
Do any members of this forum have any solid evidence that the 'bid' of 5.5 (=6,462,500) was real. My research, which was extensive, suggests that no one in the mainstream of the coin business or the collecting community was valuing this coin that high. I realize, of course, that there could have been bidders who were unknown to me. I am very curious.
PRC: "thanks, that is very helpful. "
Why was that "very helpful? Before this thread started, we knew that a bid of 6.4 ($7.52) would not have been sufficient to buy the Eliasberg-Pogue 1822 on May 24, 2016. Do we know more now?
The Marvelous Pogue Family Coin Collection, part 19: Most Dynamic Half Eagles in 4th Auction
The Marvelous Pogue Family Coin Collection, part 17: Importance of 4th Sale to Collectors who Cannot Afford the Coins