Basketball Unopened Prices going up...still room to grow?

rtimmer

I've been watching a couple auctions in the current Heritage Auction and today went thru the recent SCP auction results to figure out my bids and I see several items have increased in value. Now 1961 and 1971 boxes don't come up for sale that often but I believe both are the highest sales recorded for both boxes. The 1974 box I also believe is a recent high and I don't understand why a 1975 sells for more than the '74 but it beat it by $2,500 which has to be a high.

I've ceased my buying for most of these years in favor of 1987 and '88 Fleer which I think are both still undervalued but even these years are still increasing while baseball seems to be slowing for unopened. Do you think basketball is just catching up to the run baseball unopened has been on or is it related to basketball being a much more global sport and demand for basketball unopened is just starting to take off with sustained demand coming from other countries?

SCP basketball unopened results.

mikelowell25

Good points Ryan and don't forget the 57's



Also please check your pm's: I sent you one on the 20th in response to yours from earlier that day and never heard back from you....

grote15

The tougher issues/packs still command a nice premium, and will continue to do so going forward. We have seen softening in pricing with the some of the more common years, but even with that pullback, prices remain significantly higher than what they were several years ago. Don't forget, also, the appreciation in value, percentage-wise, was greater for those years, too vs the others, simply because at those price levels there is a greater buying pool to begin with. I don't think it is healthy for prices to rise that rapidly and that continuously, for an extended period of time, in any case. What we're seeing now, imho, is a bit less speculation and "irrational exuberance" and more of a true reflection of what values are commensurate to the year/issue in question.

rtimmer

Originally posted by: mikelowell25
Good points Ryan and don't forget the 57's

Also please check your pm's: I sent you one on the 20th in response to yours from earlier that day and never heard back from you....

Ha, yeah I haven't seen a '57 sell more than once (much less own one) to know but those are definately rare air.

I like the old PM set up better I have no idea when I get new ones these days.

rtimmer

Originally posted by: grote15
The tougher issues/packs still command a nice premium, and will continue to do so going forward. We have seen softening in pricing with the some of the more common years, but even with that pullback, prices remain significantly higher than what they were several years ago. Don't forget, also, the appreciation in value, percentage-wise, was greater for those years, too vs the others, simply because at those price levels there is a greater buying pool to begin with. I don't think it is healthy for prices to rise that rapidly and that continuously, for an extended period of time, in any case. What we're seeing now, imho, is a bit less speculation and "irrational exuberance" and more of a true reflection of what values are commensurate to the year/issue in question.

Hey Tim, completely agree. I think the 1975 Topps baseball (class set of the decade) type issues will always be in demand and steadily rising as unopened gets opened and becomes rarer, I was more thinking about 1979 baseball and to a somewhat lesser degree 1978 which have gone up a lot the last 6 years and then declined more recently.

I have certainly enjoyed the increases in baseball unopened the last 6 years as while I do have a decent basketball unopened collection I still have a much bigger baseball showing. I'm toying with significantly moving my focus to basketball unopened as I know there is much less unopened basketball product out there and if the demand gets anywhere close to baseball because of the international interest those prices should rise at a rate higher than baseball would going forward.

So with 1986 basketball rising a lot recently I'm wondering if 1987 and '88 fleer basketball are the place to be versus 1979 and '78 (76-77 too) baseball? No plans to sell the Tony Perez or Dave Winfield rookie showing packs just maybe shift my focus to buying basketball unopened??

grote15

I collect only 1970s baseball for the most part, so basketball for me is not an option, but from my vantage point the softening in prices that I'm seeing on the baseball side is with very late 70s and early 80s product (which is also the era that witnessed the sharpest rise in value, percentage wise, over the past few years). In general, unopened product prior to 1978 is still in great demand with short supply to satisfy that demand and prices continue to reflect that from the results that I've been seeing.

shu4040

I agree. Even if the meteoric recent Jordan rises are impacted by shilling, I don't think unopened in those years has priced in the underlying cards moves.

I'm also a fan of 70s basketball which I think is still pretty unpopular which you move past '72. The lack of monster rookies definitely hurts the late 70s (in addition to other things), but I still think each year has a decent rookie worth going after.

and I have no idea why that 75 wax basketball box sold for so much. I have one of the 75 vending boxes that steve had on his site forever, and he seemingly couldn't give those away for a year.

craig44

I think unopened basketball has a very nice upside, especially with the large Asian market. I think the 87 fleer is a great buy right now. I had always heard that 87 fleer is much more scarce than 86 because there were so few pre orders as 86 was such a flop.

PFB

Hi -
I have an 88-89 Fleer BB wax box from BBCE - FASC. I sent picture to Steve. It's an old label (pre BBCE wrapping) - has month and day, but no year. He said its 100% authentic, but couldn't remember when he last had a sealed case. Does anyone remember?

Thanks!!

Peter

rtimmer

Originally posted by: craig44
I think unopened basketball has a very nice upside, especially with the large Asian market. I think the 87 fleer is a great buy right now. I had always heard that 87 fleer is much more scarce than 86 because there were so few pre orders as 86 was such a flop.

I agree 1987 is rarer compared to '86 but 1988 has such a nice rookie crop so choosing between the two is hard. Maybe both are good ideas relative to the 1970s offerings.

Switching gears I'm watching the 1971 baseball box ending in tomorrow's heritage auction, we will see how prices hold up for early 1970s baseball. With the markets up again I predict strong prices.
Heritage unopened auction

mikelowell25

Originally posted by: rtimmer

Originally posted by: craig44

I think unopened basketball has a very nice upside, especially with the large Asian market. I think the 87 fleer is a great buy right now. I had always heard that 87 fleer is much more scarce than 86 because there were so few pre orders as 86 was such a flop.

I agree 1987 is rarer compared to '86 but 1988 has such a nice rookie crop so choosing between the two is hard. Maybe both are good ideas relative to the 1970s offerings.



Switching gears I'm watching the 1971 baseball box ending in tomorrow's heritage auction, we will see how prices hold up for early 1970s baseball. With the markets up again I predict strong prices.

Heritage unopened auction

Switching gears yet again back to basketball (cards this time!) i'm watching to see what the two 57 Russell rookies hammer for; I can't believe the 7 is already up to 12k (14340 with the BP); that's more than what I paid a year and a half ago for a complete set, all psa graded with 69 7's, three 7.5's, three 8's and five 6's; it was I believe the #14 set on the registry at the time with a 6.92 GPA and the Russell was a 7. Glad I made that deal when I did!!