Similar Players
dallasactuary
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in Sports Talk
Baseball-reference shows a list for each player of the 10 most similar players. What they mean by "most similar" is who has the most similar ABs, HRs, BA, etc. In other words, it's a very superficial comparison that has no context. I wondered which players were most similar in terms of what really matters - their value to their team. For this, I used Win Shares and compared each player's best season, second best season, etc. to other players. And because when we think of similar players we think of their best few seasons a lot more than we think of their worst few seasons and/or old man years, I weighted their best season the highest down to their last season the lowest.
The players I looked at are all fairly good - no Mario Mendoza - and all played several years, so no Mark Fidrych. And I only have Win Share data through 2001, so anybody who wasn't done by then, or who hadn't played all their good seasons by then, isn't included.
Here, then, is a list of a few players that I looked at - those I found interesting, and those who have been mentioned in this forum recently.
Babe Ruth
Honus Wagner is the most similar, but he's not even remotely close. The same was true of most of the greatest players - they have a very small peer group, and no two of them accomplished what they did in the same pattern. The exceptions are:
Stan Musial
Most similar player - Eddie Collins
Top 10 Win Shares for each:
M C
46 43
44 43
40 40
39 39
39 39
38 38
37 36
33 35
32 32
30 31
and
Pete Rose
Most similar player: Sam Crawford
R C
37 36
34 36
32 32
32 32
31 32
30 31
29 28
28 27
27 25
27 24
Without the detail, some others (with three most similar):
Joe Morgan: Rickey Henderson, Jimmie Foxx, Eddie Mathews
Rod Carew: Tony Gwynn, Frankie Frisch, Willie Stargell
Lou Brock: Jimmy Sheckard, Tony Perez, Bobby Grich
Roberto Clemente: Goose Goslin, Harry Heilmann, Zach Wheat
Reggie Jackson: Jesse Burkett, Luke Appling, Robin Yount
Will Clark: Carl Yastrzemski, Joe Medwick, Willie McCovey
Gene Tenace: Greg Luzinski, Juan Gonzalez, Ginger Beaumont
Ron Fairly: Tony Phillipps, Lave Cross, Rick Monday
Bill Freehan: Clyde Milan, Jim Rice, Heine Manush
Jim Rice: Heine Manush, Bill Freehan, Enos Slaughter
Roy White: Jimmy Collins, Bobby Veach, Edgar Martinez
Bill Buckner: Bill Mazeroski, Frank White, Jim Sundberg
And I wish they were more interesting, but the two most similar players of all time are
Bill White and Rudy York
W Y
27 27
26 26
24 26
22 22
22 22
18 18
16 17
16 16
14 15
12 13
The players I looked at are all fairly good - no Mario Mendoza - and all played several years, so no Mark Fidrych. And I only have Win Share data through 2001, so anybody who wasn't done by then, or who hadn't played all their good seasons by then, isn't included.
Here, then, is a list of a few players that I looked at - those I found interesting, and those who have been mentioned in this forum recently.
Babe Ruth
Honus Wagner is the most similar, but he's not even remotely close. The same was true of most of the greatest players - they have a very small peer group, and no two of them accomplished what they did in the same pattern. The exceptions are:
Stan Musial
Most similar player - Eddie Collins
Top 10 Win Shares for each:
M C
46 43
44 43
40 40
39 39
39 39
38 38
37 36
33 35
32 32
30 31
and
Pete Rose
Most similar player: Sam Crawford
R C
37 36
34 36
32 32
32 32
31 32
30 31
29 28
28 27
27 25
27 24
Without the detail, some others (with three most similar):
Joe Morgan: Rickey Henderson, Jimmie Foxx, Eddie Mathews
Rod Carew: Tony Gwynn, Frankie Frisch, Willie Stargell
Lou Brock: Jimmy Sheckard, Tony Perez, Bobby Grich
Roberto Clemente: Goose Goslin, Harry Heilmann, Zach Wheat
Reggie Jackson: Jesse Burkett, Luke Appling, Robin Yount
Will Clark: Carl Yastrzemski, Joe Medwick, Willie McCovey
Gene Tenace: Greg Luzinski, Juan Gonzalez, Ginger Beaumont
Ron Fairly: Tony Phillipps, Lave Cross, Rick Monday
Bill Freehan: Clyde Milan, Jim Rice, Heine Manush
Jim Rice: Heine Manush, Bill Freehan, Enos Slaughter
Roy White: Jimmy Collins, Bobby Veach, Edgar Martinez
Bill Buckner: Bill Mazeroski, Frank White, Jim Sundberg
And I wish they were more interesting, but the two most similar players of all time are
Bill White and Rudy York
W Y
27 27
26 26
24 26
22 22
22 22
18 18
16 17
16 16
14 15
12 13
This is for you @thisistheshow - Jim Rice was actually a pretty good player.
0
Comments
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
I also never considered reggie and yount as similar players
They weren't similar as far as a type of player, they had similar values when rating them using win shares.
Gwynn and Stargell weren't "similar" either!
I also never considered reggie and yount as similar players
They weren't similar as far as a type of player, they had similar values when rating them using win shares.
Gwynn and Stargell weren't "similar" either!
That's exactly right. What I find interesting, and instructive, about the exercise is that it brings into focus that players can provide similar value in very different ways. Reggie and Yount were closer to opposites than duplicates; what Reggie did well were not Yount's strengths, and what Yount did well were not Reggie's strengths. But a high average shortstop with above average power and speed is very valuable; about the same value as a monster slugger who takes a lot of walks as it turns out.
And one thing that comes out pretty clearly in this or most any other exercise is that catchers just aren't that valuable if you measure them the same way as you measure everybody else. Bench and Berra compare to mostly HOFers, but that's about it. Carter and Fisk have a mix of lower-tier HOFers (Tony Perez, e.g.) and non-HOFers (like Rusty Staub) in their comparables lists. Bill James and WAR just give catchers an across-the-board "bump" to get them to a place that "feels" right. I didn't do that here, but I think it's correct to do that. A major league team with a bad catcher isn't going to win many games, and it seems unfair to treat catchers as if they didn't have to play the game squatting down and standing up 150 times wearing several pounds of uncomfortable gear. A team that can get 140 quality games out of a catcher has been helped as much as the team that can get 160 quality games out of an outfielder. That's just my opinion, but I'm very comfortable with it.
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I am just not getting this... I don't see how Joe Morgan and Jimmie Foxx have much in common
What they have in common is their value to their teams.
That said, like most of the game's superstars, Morgan isn't actually all that similar to anyone.
Morgan's and Foxx's Win Shares, from best to worst season:
M F
44 41
40 40
39 34
37 34
37 34
30 32
30 30
29 30
29 26
26 24
24 24
24 23
21 22
19 20
19 8
18 6
17 5
14 1
12 1
2
1
Morgan was clearly but not significantly better than Foxx in their best seasons and Morgan significantly outlasted Foxx, but they were similar enough for the meat of their careers that Foxx is one of the most similar to Morgan overall.
I think what you need to let go of is the notion that "similar" players had similar skills. What I mean by similar is along the lines of "which player do you want on your team?". If you have the choice between Rudy York and Bill White, you can flip a coin - they were virtually of identical value. If you have the choice between Joe Morgan and Jimmy Foxx, you should take Morgan, but if you get Foxx the difference between them is small relative to any other player you could take.
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