expert advice for auctions

Gazes

I have seen on this forum as well as books, websites, etc. that it is always a good idea to have an expert view a coin in person at an auction prior to bidding on it if you can't view the coin yourself. Has anyone ever offered a service where a trusted expert viewed all the coins and typed up his thoughts for sale on a subscription basis?



I would think this may work for higher priced coins--like a platinum night or rarities night. The expert's list could be for all coins or all gold coins or some subset and sell for whatever dollar value the expert thought people would buy (i.e $200 for his thoughts on all coins at the auction....).



This idea occurred to me reading the recent article in Coinweek by Greg Reynolds where he previewed his thoughts about certain coins. So is this done at all? Good idea? bad idea? Thanks

roadrunner

I think if someone really sharp and recognized in the industry went through all the effort to describe all the auction lots above $200, the other dealers would happily pay them not to do it.



And if they're that good, just as well they bid the auction themselves or with some buddies. Which is pretty much what happens. A dealer once paid my travel and lodging to the ANA convention to view lots with them. They wanted a team of 3-4 eyes on all the coins. We met after lot viewing to discuss which lots would they focus on based on the grade opinions. They really could have done it themselves, but the more the merrier. The dealer did get quite a few newps out of that sale, including an 1890s superb gem gold proof set. I think the Proof $20 graded 66 CAM. This was 1988 so the coins were almost all raw.



These days, there are only a few dozen dealer I would consider to do such a thing. That also includes seeing the coins the same general way I would. JA at CAC is essentially doing this very thing. While the sticker may not be a "description" it is an a help to most bidders in order to figure out if a coin is lower end or solid for the grade. If you need a top notch pro to look at a dozen or two lots for you (and bid), they are easy enough to find. Considering most top graders are probably 70-85% accurate/repeatable...that does leave plenty of room for errors....and hopefully not on your lots.

TopographicOceans

It depends on the price range for the coin.

Back in the early 80's I would bid by phone on auctions with nothing more than a cataloguers write up but those would be a couple of hundred dollars at most.

Now TPG's provides an opinion about the coins grade, then CAC provides an opinion about the TPG's opinion.

If you're bidding on a high end coin then it would be worth it to have another "expert" provide an opinion on the CAC's opinion of the TPG's opinion.

Cougar1978

I think people who can't grade or know how to look at coins should not be buying big ticket material unless say some slabbed PCGS MS69 Bullion piece. But its their hobby, their money.

I am sure there are individuals in the industry for a fee or commission wb happy to advise you however. One guy I Know who does this charges a percentage of the winnings above a flat fee just to look. He charges about $200 per hour to view and then a commission of 5% of winning bids. We are talking a situation where a six or seven figure sum is expected to be bought. Basically he looks at all the lots notes go vs no go items. He may buy a few for himself assuming the client is not interested in these.

BryceM

Experts have already done that for virtually every lot in the auction. Their thoughts are reported on the label, which is usually located within the slab above the coin. An additional expert sometimes leaves his impression by affixing either a green or gold sticker to the right hand side of the label. I know I'm being a smart-***, but my point it that one more opinion is just one more opinion. How many opinions is enough? Whose counts the most? I also happen to trust expert W with gold Indians, expert X with early copper, expert Y with colonials, and expert Z for patterns. Even then only 8 out of 10 dentists agree.......

DollarAfterDollar

I'd think the liability would be a potential issue.

roadrunner

Originally posted by: BryceM

Experts have already done that for virtually every lot in the auction. Their thoughts are reported on the label, which is usually located within the slab above the coin.......

What you have there is only the latest grading event review by a group of 2-4 experts in as little as 5-15 seconds each. If that coin was graded multiple times in the past, I'd like the results from those experts as well....and ideally their individual grades. Then we can figure out what grade the coin should be...not necessarily the 10th grading event. That is why you have competent additional reviews (CAC) and/or your own agent at an auction....because the assigned grade from the last event is hardly the be all, end all. That's not even considering where the coin ranks among its own peers within that grade. That information is not available on the holder. These are the things another set of eyes after the TPG can provide:



Is the coin high end, middle, or low end for the grade?

Does it have excellent, above average, average, or below average eye appeal?

Does it have strong, average, or weaker strike?

If there is toning is it thick, moderate, light, or non-existant?

Is the luster strong, average, or weaker for the grade?

Does it have more, average, or fewer marks than normal?

Does it show signs of a former cleaning and/or dipping even if market acceptable?



Put all these things on the holder, along with the previous 2-10 grading events, and I'd be a happy camper...except for the 5X increase in grading fees. I would say that the assigned grade on pre-1930 classic coinage will usually get you to within 10-30% of the coin's value. In the worst cases, it might only get you to within 50-100%....another need to have another set of eyes to narrow down that range. An assigned grade and a price guide or two hardly gets you to a coin's True Market Value.



I offer up my $10 Lib scenario as a bold example. The last grading event (by the auction house itself) before it went to auction was MS66. I sent it to them raw. So that was all a buyer needed to know...MS66? It probably would not have CAC'd either. What else did I know as the previous submitter? 3 earlier grading events of MS64 (then cracked out), Body Bag from PCGS, and Body Bag from NGC. The last grading event tells the entire story....it's a MS66

BryceM

Your points are valid. Surely a more thorough evaluation by a competent expert would be valuable. I certainly lean on people with much more experience than me to evaluate lots I'm interested in, but it is astonishing to me how often the experts disagree.

roadrunner

Originally posted by: BryceM

Your points are valid. Surely a more thorough evaluation by a competent expert would be valuable. I certainly lean on people with much more experience than me to evaluate lots I'm interested in, but it is astonishing to me how often the experts disagree.

I agree completely. That's why I always state that to market grade/price a coin accordingly, I would need a room full of 6-10 top graders with as much time as they needed to assign a grade. We'd toss out the high and low ends, and average the middle. If there wasn't a pretty clear 2/3 consensus in that middle, I'd probably want it done again with another 6-10 graders. Obviously, my model to get the correct grade is not profitable for inexpensive coins. In our market, a coin is bid up by the 2 highest bidders who like the coin the most out of a potential 98 under-bidders. That's not an ideal way to value a coin either. And those 1-2 expert graders who's high grades we tossed out earlier in the grading room....are the ones who will end up with that coin at auction. It's not a simple exercise when the price spreads are 100% between grades.

BryceM

I chose to believe the subjectivity in valuing a coin (grading is really nothing more than a shorthand appraisal) does not always lend itself well to such rigorous analysis. Sometimes it just comes down to "this guy wanted it more than that other dude so he bid higher." Do it again with the same people on a different day and the "market determined value" would fall out totally differently. Do it again a generation later and what the market even values will have shifted significantly.



Probably, we're mostly saying the same thing.



I just can't see how a single individual taking the time to put out his thoughts on a bunch of coins will work to anyone's real advantage. A person with that much knowledge & talent has far better things to do than make a few bucks on a subscription service. Spelled out over and over in black and white, it wouldn't take long for that person's bias to be well understood by everyone, at which point the information isn't as useful as it was at first.....



Maybe it would be better to use three experts........ but that's what the TPGs are already doing, but distilling a million things into a single number. Too much subjectivity enters in to do it any better in a reproducible, broadly-applicable way that can be understood by large numbers of people.

MrEureka

Not a good idea. Subscribers would end up bidding against each other, so there would be no bargains. And on the coins that the expert liked a little too much, the subscribers would bid each other up far beyond the coins' true value.