Odds of a card being a PSA 10

BeRoyalKC

What do you believe the odds are of a card coming out of a pack being a PSA 10? 1/50? I realize there are a lot of ifs so to create a baseline let's say you opened a 1979 Topps vending box. Now I know there are the tough Ozzie Smith centering issue but in general out of those 500 cards in the vending box how many do you think would grade 10? I personally don't open anything but Heritage now and again so I'm curious. For sure some years like 85 T FB would be tougher but I always wondered how it would break down 100 10s 250 9's, etc. Anyone ever sub an entire rack pack or cello and have the results?

slum22

This is an interesting question. I certainly do not rip enough to offer much information. There is someone here building a 1983 Topps BB set from rips. I would bet he has the best data to share at least for that issue. There is such a wide variance in terms of condition sensitivity between sets and even unopened mediums that I would think it is hard to make any hard and fast rules unless you were specifying by set.

saucywombat

I think it largely depends on the state of the print run that the box encompasses. Especially with vending boxes all the cards tend to have the same issues e.g. centering off to one side, fish eyes in the same places, color. Sometimes you'll get lucky and the print run is dead on with centering and you'll get a wax or vending box that has a ton of mint cards and the other side of the coin is you get skunked.

Overall minimum I'd say there are at least 10 cards in a wax box that could be candidates so that puts it at around 1 in 43 or 44 cards

UncleTwoPillow

Agree with the vending box consideration which can work to both ends of the extreme - huge duds or huge scores. With a 1979 Topps Baseball vending box as an example, though, that is a notoriously tough issue for gems no matter where they come from. If you start out pulling badly centered cards from a vending box, that's usually where you'll end up.

grote15

79 Topps is brutal for centering and poor card stock. I would place odds of pulling any PSA 10 out of a pack at about 50 to 1, but if you get a nice box, you can do well, too. No way to know for sure till you crack open the box!

lilmule

Thanks Tim on the luck with the 79 packs

DanBessette

Originally posted by: lilmule

Thanks Tim on the luck with the 79 packs

When Tim holds an unopened pack of cards, the contents change from PSA 5 quality to 9's and 10's.

1954

In my experience there has been 10% in which are total garbage (50 cards). There will be 15-20% of the 450 cards that can get PSA 9's (70-90 cards). Out of the 70-90 cards you should get 10-15% in PSA 10's. This is totally my experience with vending. It really depends on the year we are talking about.

BeRoyalKC

I know the year makes a huge difference. I do remember the guy doing the 83 set ripping wax, cello, and vending. That would be a good discussion. Also, I'm bad with names, the gentlemen doing a 89 T hockey set by busting boxes, that would be a good one too. I know some of you have busted quite a bit of 75 T. What's your experience been there?

vandweller

Doesn't this vary even down to the individual card? That is, aren't some cards are tougher or easier than other cards in the same set?

grote15

Originally posted by: vandweller

Doesn't this vary even down to the individual card? That is, aren't some cards are tougher or easier than other cards in the same set?

Absolutely~pops vary greatly from card to card. Placement on the sheet is a significant factor in how easy (or difficult) a card will be to pull in PSA 10 grade. The OP, though, is not referring to a specific card, but pulling a PSA 10 in general. And, of course, some years are tougher than others, too.



Mike~good luck with the 79s (if you decide to rip them)!

grote15

Originally posted by: DanBessette

Originally posted by: lilmule

Thanks Tim on the luck with the 79 packs

When Tim holds an unopened pack of cards, the contents change from PSA 5 quality to 9's and 10's.

Dan, hold that thought when I crack open the 78 vending box I plan on ripping, LOL!

ClockworkAngel

Like others have said, there is usually consistency of either high quality cards or garbage throughout an unopened box. I have opened a bunch of 1975 Topps mini boxes and will usually know after the first couple packs whether I have a shot at a couple 10's. They are notorious for centering issues and being tilted and will have largely the same centering through the box. I also know of someone that got like 8 PSA 10's out of one box that turned out to immaculate throughout. These are very rare types of hits. Hit and miss but usually a miss. I think this holds true for most of the pre 1980 sets. One good thing about ripping cellos and racks from this era is that you can get a feel for how centering might be throughout the pack by looking at the top card.

MantlesMantra

About 7.5% of subs for 1979 Topps Baseball are PSA 10s. I think you'd be lucky if 10% of what you send in come back 10s. And of course where you're pulling the cards from matters and then there's variance.

Typically rack packs will yield the "best" cards but you pay a premium. In my experience, taking all forms of unopened into consideration, about one in every 10 cards is worth sending in.

So I'd say 1 in 100 cards will give ya a 10 if you have legit, pristine unopened. Unfortunately with vending, I've seen entire boxes where every corner was dinged.