Biggest Single Factor

Gazes

I have seen many posts and blogs about the cycles of the rare coin market. Right now some opinions are that we are at a bottom or near a bottom. People have speculated on the timing and curcumstances for the rare coin market to take off. Usually a trigger to a booming rare coin market involve multiple things happening (ie stock market boom, inflation , rise in precious metals,etc). What do you think is the single one most important factor for rare coin prices to rise as a whole ? I know multiple things may need to happen but looking for the one primary trigger in your opinion to have a booming rare coin cycle. Thanks

DollarAfterDollar

If gold and silver increase significantly people want to own it in any form they can get. This interest bleeds over into numismatic items and historically fuels added interest.

That's what I've heard.

Sonorandesertrat

There is no single factor that can account for market highs during the last half century. The market today is more complex than it has ever been, and it's likely better to view it as a collection of niche markets than a unified one. Compounding the problem is the bifurcation between 'C' coins and the 'A'/'B' coins (fueled by CAC). For the market to rise as a whole, people need to be flush with money that can be used for discretionary purchases (at all levels)--we aren't close to being there yet.

RedTiger

Biggest? That's easy: the economy, or to quote a candidate, the economy stupid

There are other factors, but you asked for the biggest. Coin buyers tend to be upper middle class, so that end of the economy, both how many people feel like their are upper middle income, and how much extra money they have. Disposal income is a phrase I have not heard in a while.

While unemployment is moving lower, many new jobs are crap jobs such as part time at Home Depot. Wages on average are mostly stagnant. Expenses and tax increases are outpacing wage growth for most people. So disposal income is stagnant. A lot of folks are worried about saving enough for retirement in a zero, possibly negative interest rate environment.

Which would a sane person rather want to do? Blow a lot of money on coins, or save for a decent retirement? Some would say they can do both, but they tend to be in the top 5% of collectors in terms of skills and connections. Many of the rest get taken to the cleaners by a turbulent market, and retail/wholesale friction. I'd guess it is typically 25% on up for average collectors in this market. Again average collectors, not the top 5% like BillJones or Roadrunner or people of similar skill and experience. Low skill collectors are often looking at a 50% haircut, because they buy so many mistakes, and because they can't get good buy or sell pricing.

WildIdea

Originally posted by: RedTiger
Biggest? That's easy: the economy, or to quote a candidate, the economy stupid

There are other factors, but you asked for the biggest. Coin buyers tend to be upper middle class, so that end of the economy, both how many people feel like their are upper middle income, and how much extra money they have. Disposal income is a phrase I have not heard in a while.

While unemployment is moving lower, many new jobs are crap jobs such as part time at Home Depot. Wages on average are mostly stagnant. Expenses and tax increases are outpacing wage growth for most people. So disposal income is stagnant. A lot of folks are worried about saving enough for retirement in a zero, possibly negative interest rate environment.

Which would a sane person rather want to do? Blow a lot of money on coins, or save for a decent retirement? Some would say they can do both, but they tend to be in the top 5% of collectors in terms of skills and connections. Many of the rest get taken to the cleaners by a turbulent market, and retail/wholesale friction. I'd guess it is typically 25% on up for average collectors in this market. Again average collectors, not the top 5% like BillJones or Roadrunner or people of similar skill and experience. Low skill collectors are often looking at a 50% haircut, because they buy so many mistakes, and because they can't get good buy or sell pricing.

Great post

jayPem

Originally posted by: WildIdea

Originally posted by: RedTiger

Biggest? That's easy: the economy, or to quote a candidate, the economy stupid



There are other factors, but you asked for the biggest. Coin buyers tend to be upper middle class, so that end of the economy, both how many people feel like their are upper middle income, and how much extra money they have. Disposal income is a phrase I have not heard in a while.



While unemployment is moving lower, many new jobs are crap jobs such as part time at Home Depot. Wages on average are mostly stagnant. Expenses and tax increases are outpacing wage growth for most people. So disposal income is stagnant. A lot of folks are worried about saving enough for retirement in a zero, possibly negative interest rate environment.



Which would a sane person rather want to do? Blow a lot of money on coins, or save for a decent retirement? Some would say they can do both, but they tend to be in the top 5% of collectors in terms of skills and connections. Many of the rest get taken to the cleaners by a turbulent market, and retail/wholesale friction. I'd guess it is typically 25% on up for average collectors in this market. Again average collectors, not the top 5% like BillJones or Roadrunner or people of similar skill and experience. Low skill collectors are often looking at a 50% haircut, because they buy so many mistakes, and because they can't get good buy or sell pricing.

Great post

Yep. Red Tiger always reminds me of all the bad haircuts I've received ...;(