What is the PCGS 3000 index?

stevepk

I am under the impression the PCGS 3000 index is a listing of typical collector coins that can determine the current state of the coin market. The PCGS 3000 index indicates whether coins command high or low prices in relation to the past.

Browsing the PCGS 3000 index, I question whether these coins really reflect the average collector's holdings and is truly a reflection of the coin market on a whole. These coins are outrageous; type 1 double eagles in MS64, a Liberty cap half cent in MS63, a 1793 cent in AU55, proof braided hair half cents, a chain cent in MS63, a draped bust cent in MS66 red/brown, a classic head large cent in MS65 red/brown, 1856 flying eagle cents, an 1877 Indian cent in MS65 red, and the list goes on. I hope you get the point. These aren't typical collector coins. These coins are equivalent to a brand new car, and is some cases, probably a new house! These aren't common collector coins; these are the coins of multi-millionaires. Where is the common date seated liberty quarter in fine condition or the 1826 capped bust half in VG? Where is the common date Morgan dollar in MS63? These are the casual collector coins.

Does the PCGS 3000 genuinely reflect the coin market? If so, how are these values updated? How often does a type 1 double eagle in MS64 (other than the 1857-S) trade hands, and does is there enough activity to really list at a true market value on the PCGS 3000? This is just one example. These coins don't trade often enough, and it is tough to put a number on these coins. Not every coin of the assigned grade in equal.

Does anyone really check the PCGS 3000 to gauge the entire coin market? How are these prices maintained for accuracy? Not even the Greysheet can get pricing right, and that's all they do! Greysheet doesn't even have to worry about coin grading, just pricing, and they can't even get that right. How is PCGS able to track and monitor 3000 rarely traded coins?

I'm just an average collector of modest means. I don't own the 1794 dollar in SP66, I don't own an 1804 dollar, or even one of the 1913 Liberty head nickels. Should the PCGS 3000 mean anything to me?

jcping

My answer is "NO"

davewesen

It is an investor index for rare coin market, similar to DowJones for stocks

roadrunner

It should mean something to you if only that it's a "rare coin index," rather than a "generic, common coin" index. And their price, liquidity, supply and demand tend to drive the entire US coin market. There are 3,000 items....you listed less than 20 of them. Not all of the coins are $5K, $10K or even $5 MILL. It is a fairly reasonable gauge of the health of the US rare coin market. One thing it doesn't do is account for gradeflation since its inception. If a type 1 $20 Lib in MS64 trades at least once per year, the price for a type coin can be reasonably inferred and plotted. One doesn't have to sell every few days, weeks, or even months to figure out what it's worth today.



There are coins like a common date MS63 Morgan, MS63 1883 Lib nickel, and 1938-d MS63 Buffalo nickel on the list, none worth more than around $50 each. Maybe there should be a separate circ type coin index heavy in 19th and 20th century silver type coins. You could always petition PCGS to add one. Keeping track of 3,000 coins every week or every month is difficult enough. Sure, this is more of an investor or speculator's portfolio, or advanced collectors with deeper pockets....and probably not representative of 95% of those in the nation who call themselves collectors. $$ value shouldn't determine whether one is an advanced collector or not. The PCGS 3000 is geared towards collectors spending hundreds to thousands of dollars per coin....the kinds of collectors that help keep PNG, PCGS, and NGC authorized dealers in business.



The index is most applicable to the dealers that populate the national coin shows, auctions, and run high dollar B&M coin shop operations. I doubt very many of them have ever even looked at the PCGS 3000 or its sub-parts....which doesn't lessen the value of the index. Grey sheet does get the pricing right for 90% or more of the coin market. What it doesn't get right is the price on say an XF 1872-s seated quarter or even an XF 1897-s Barber quarter. Neither coin is represented on the PCGS 3000....or they'd probably have it wrong too. The PCGS 3000 generally prices coins that trade often enough to price reasonably accurately. When averaged out over 3,000 coins (or say 300 coins in a sub-index), the errors probably massaged out.



To say the index has no meaning to the average collector is an oversight. That's like saying the precious metal's markets have no bearing on average collectors. Well they both do as the health of your local dealers' operations depend on those factors. No local dealers makes it tougher on any collector to continue collecting. Your local dealer is not going to survive flipping Good-VF seated quarters at $10-$50 each for a living.



While I hate to admit it, I've actually looked at all parts of the PCGS 3000 multiple times over the past 10 years, even analyzing it via Edwards and Magee chart patterns........Fwiw, there's a lot to be seen in those chart patterns. I don't own a SP66 1794 dollar either. But I own a number of MS63 common date Morgan dollars. Maybe there should be an "every man" PCGS 1000 to track the kinds of coins a typical collector might own. I think we would find it moves very, very slowly and be of much less use to those collectors than the PCGS 3000 would be to "investors/speculators/dealers." Such an index of 100 popular collectors coins could easily be constructed by any of us in just a few hours via spread sheet. It could be updated 4X per year. It might have a F-VF capped bust half, VF seated half, MS65 or MS66 Morgan dollar, a few common MS64/65 commems, MS64/65 common date walkers, XF/AU/unc SLQ, etc. If there was enough interest in such an index PCGS might include it. Thing is, these coins are all accurately tracked on CDN and finding their value at any time of the day or week is quite simple. Is there a need for an index where pricing is accurate and plentiful?

TwoSides2aCoin

… about 2 thousand, nowadays… LOL