First pick in a team draft Group break...go for the money hit or PC team?

alifaxwa2

So, to update, I had decided to go Titans with the #1 pick due to the higher chances of hitting Marcus Mariota, instead of the Bucs (Winston) or PC Teams Steelers or Redskins. With 32nd pick I had a choice (#30 deferred), between the Ravens and Chiefs, I went with the Ravens.



The Ravens, Titans, Redskins, and Steelers were all shut out. The Chiefs got a 3x Jersey card from Immaculate. And the Bucs hit this;





Dissappointing 1st foray into Team Draft group breaks. May stick to Hit Drafts or Hit Randoms.



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Original post

I got picks 1 and 32 in a snake draft I joined just hoping to get 1 of my 2 PC teams.



Now I am stuck, do I stick with the PC choice at #1 (but lesser value possibilities), or go for the potential high value pick (titans, bucs), but knowing that I could get stuck with low value titans or bucs I don't want if I dont get a MM or JW.



Any help appreciated.

sbfinley

Not sure where your break is hosted, but you can probably get good value trading or selling your pick. I've done well trading or selling top 1-5 selections in the past (and there has even been instances where I won slotted auctions for a fair price and resold the spots/teams/players for a profit.) If you are worried about the risk-reward of taking a popular selection at the top versus taking your PC team, sell the pick and use it to purchase your PC team on the secondary market.

alifaxwa2

This is on blowout.



I posted immediately after the Random to sell the 1st pick to move down. Haven't had interest. I have to post my pick in the next few hours.



May just need to take the Titans, and see if I can sell it then or go for the big hit to sell later.

alifaxwa2

Got tired of stressing over this all morning and just went with the Titans.

slum22

If I was in your shoes I would draft the higher value team (I would have gone with the Bucs because I think Winston is a little better than Mariota), but I think they're values are similar. Who would your PC selection have been. If it was a top 5 team I guess you could make an argument to go for that but I think given the potential return you did the right thing. If you get a nice hit you can probably flip the results into multiple slots of your PC teams in future breaks. Good luck with your break and post the results. Out of curiosity did eBay not offer case breaks where you could pick your team (non-random)? I only participate in breaks when I know what team I'm getting before I pay.

alifaxwa2

Mariota has a few more cards in Immaculate. So there were higher chances of getting him. I wanted to get the Redskins and or the Steelers, but the Steelers cards were mostly limited to one rookie who has not done much. The Redskins had more cards but of lower value.



Biggest issue is really that even if I had gotten the Redskins or Steelers, the cards themselves would not have been stuff I probably would have collected otherwise.

So the best option is the big hit and sell that to get the specific PC cards I would want.



This was a team draft on blowout. So it was a flat cost to everyone and then it was random Draft order. Team specific auctions on eBay for group breaks tend to cost more because of the specific interest in teams.

brendanb438

Always take the best value team if you can't trade down. If you hit big in this style of draft then just sell the card and use the proceeds to fund PC stuff.

slum22

Congrats. Yes makes sense on going for Ten if Mariota has more possibilities than Winston. If you don't mind waiting for it I have found you can usually get pretty good value for auctioned slots on eBay vs the fixed, random slots on blowout. If you get lucky and hit an early pick on blowout then you can come out way ahead as you did on this break. But if you want Redskins you can have them all day at less than $50 delivered on an eBay break vs $65-67 delivered via Blowout. Of course, the Titans are gonna cost $135-150 on eBay vs $65-67 on Blowout. Basically, if you're after low dollar slots I think you do better on eBay. Depending on your risk tolerance for getting stuck with a team you don't want you may have higher upside at deals on Blowout. Anyway, enough of game theory, good luck with your break. I hope you hit something sweet. Any Mariota hit would be awesome.

alifaxwa2

First post updated with Results.

halosfan

Not a Winston fan .... but that is a great looking card

slum22

Sorry it sounds like you got shut out. I suppose that is how it can go with high risk high reward type of product.