A disturbing trend?
MULLINS5
Posts: 4,517 ✭✭✭
Someone in a facebook group (who has an amazing collection I can only dream of) mentioned a 'disturbing trend' with PSA 10s. Gotta say, I've been thinking the same thing lately. Wondering what people over here think. The Sakic is the only card I've followed and can say that three of the four PSA 10s graded in the past eight months deserve to be in PSA 6, 7 and an 8 holder -- no debating about it.
A month ago there were four PSA 10 1986 Topps Steve Youngs. Now there are six.
The Topps Sakic rookie was stuck at POP six FOREVER and now it's 10. Four were graded in the last eight months alone.
Jordan has gone from 178 to 220 in about five months.
Pippen shot up about 30% the past 3-4 months.
Mullin has jumped from 49 to 63.
Wilkins from 39 to 53 in about five months.
A month ago there were four PSA 10 1986 Topps Steve Youngs. Now there are six.
The Topps Sakic rookie was stuck at POP six FOREVER and now it's 10. Four were graded in the last eight months alone.
Jordan has gone from 178 to 220 in about five months.
Pippen shot up about 30% the past 3-4 months.
Mullin has jumped from 49 to 63.
Wilkins from 39 to 53 in about five months.
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Comments
<< <i>This thread seems to be fishing for bammings. >>
I doubt the forum moderator would ban anyone with an honest opinion on this trend. I feel that it is worth discussing, however, if the moderator feels the need to lock it I respect their decision to do so.
This theory could apply to any of the hot products currently being sold. Sooner or later, more nice gems will hit the marketplace and fill accumulations. Never less.
I think this.
<< <i>i would say its more related to the crazy rise in card $, more people are digging into boxes and sending cards in now. There's always been questionable 10s, i think the sub volumes are just up. >>
Makes sense, I believe Sakic's rookie was selling for around $400 before the spike and now it sells for about $800 to $1200 at auction. A case of 1989 Topps Hockey sells for about $400 so I can see the benefit of buying cases to rip to get that card now vs when it was going for the price of a case. Can't speak to other issues, except I don't see people cracking a lot of 1986 Basketball cases or boxes, but the Jordan PSA 10 has been going up an average of two per week for the past five months.
However, to say other PSA 10 examples belong in lesser slabs, no debate, you should have provided some sort of proof. I don't doubt your word but it's nice to be able to see and judge for myself.
1994 Pro Line Live
TheDallasCowboyBackfieldProject
Matt
<< <i>Such can also lead to the cracking and resubmitting of 9s. Invariably some of those come back 10s (as most would agree the difference between a 9 and a 10 is often negligible or non existent). Also remember grading is highly subjective. As such the view points and feelings of a particular grader will influence the grade (for example what might be good eye appeal to the grader may not be shared by you). In the end, and it works for me, I simply collect what pleases me within my budget.
Matt >>
I agree with the above sentiment. I bet the increase volume (at least the PSA 10's) are people cracking 9's and resubmitting them...crossing over BGS or SGC graded ones because PSA tends to fetch a higher premium...cracking cases looking for gems...or just hunting for that pristine card in an old box in the closet.
Subs are up because the card market is booming right now.
<< <i>....I don't see people cracking a lot of 1986 Basketball cases or boxes, but the Jordan PSA 10 has been going up an average of two per week for the past five months. >>
Who are you watching?
<< <i>Patrick, I totally understand your passion for the set and for that card. I'm the same way about my Cowboys stuff.
However, to say other PSA 10 examples belong in lesser slabs, no debate, you should have provided some sort of proof. I don't doubt your word but it's nice to be able to see and judge for myself. >>
You're right, I should have provided some examples.
edit to add: I've noticed these lower-end PSA 10 Sakics sell for much less than their counterparts.
Here's a card that was slabbed recently. Out of focus and print issues.
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<< <i>....I don't see people cracking a lot of 1986 Basketball cases or boxes, but the Jordan PSA 10 has been going up an average of two per week for the past five months. >>
Who are you watching? >>
Not really 'watching' anyone rip these (though, that would be a blast!) what I mean by 'I don't see' is that I don't personally see people ripping open a $30k box in search for PSA 10s ~though I could be very wrong!
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<< <i>
<< <i>....I don't see people cracking a lot of 1986 Basketball cases or boxes, but the Jordan PSA 10 has been going up an average of two per week for the past five months. >>
Who are you watching? >>
Not really 'watching' anyone rip these (though, that would be a blast!) what I mean by 'I don't see' is that I don't personally see people ripping open a $30k box in search for PSA 10s ~though I could be very wrong! >>
Have you seen some of the prices being paid for '86 Fleer non-Jordan cards?
In a prior post I suggested that some folks may be busting product which cost them far less than 30K. I doubt there are more than a few who would consider a bust at that price point (Nikklos?).
Instagram: mattyc_collection
I know you mentioned "10's" but the results are similar, value on the Killebrew dropped like a rock. Really, the whole grading subject can be disturbing, when cards are "misgraded".
On the Killebrew card I referred to, I had what I thought was a sure fire 10, MUCH nicer than the properly graded "9" in my collection. It came back an "8.5". I was very disappointed to say the least.
I would bet that many "10's" started out as "9's" and were re-submitted until they "bumped". Other times grader(s) simply might miss something. I certainly wouldn't like to examine hundreds of cards every day. I am sure they don't get much time on each card.
It is far more likely that people are cracking more PSA 9s, cracking BGS 9.5s and trimming better. People that think "new" Jordan RCs are being dug out of boxes (childhood collection or unopened) to be submitted to PSA and getting PSA 10 grades are simply fooling themselves.
Robb
Instagram: mattyc_collection
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<< <i>i would say its more related to the crazy rise in card $, more people are digging into boxes and sending cards in now. There's always been questionable 10s, i think the sub volumes are just up. >>
Makes sense, I believe Sakic's rookie was selling for around $400 before the spike and now it sells for about $800 to $1200 at auction. A case of 1989 Topps Hockey sells for about $400 so I can see the benefit of buying cases to rip to get that card now vs when it was going for the price of a case. Can't speak to other issues, except I don't see people cracking a lot of 1986 Basketball cases or boxes, but the Jordan PSA 10 has been going up an average of two per week for the past five months. >>
I disagree. I have been watching the Topps Sakic PSA 10 since it was a Pop 3, it was never selling for as low as $400. For the longest time there was one on eBay for $1100. I have noticed the price has come down somewhat since more have popped.
Interesting thread.
Matt
1994 Pro Line Live
TheDallasCowboyBackfieldProject
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<< <i>
<< <i>i would say its more related to the crazy rise in card $, more people are digging into boxes and sending cards in now. There's always been questionable 10s, i think the sub volumes are just up. >>
Makes sense, I believe Sakic's rookie was selling for around $400 before the spike and now it sells for about $800 to $1200 at auction. A case of 1989 Topps Hockey sells for about $400 so I can see the benefit of buying cases to rip to get that card now vs when it was going for the price of a case. Can't speak to other issues, except I don't see people cracking a lot of 1986 Basketball cases or boxes, but the Jordan PSA 10 has been going up an average of two per week for the past five months. >>
I disagree. I have been watching the Topps Sakic PSA 10 since it was a Pop 3, it was never selling for as low as $400. For the longest time there was one on eBay for $1100. I have noticed the price has come down somewhat since more have popped. >>
I vaguely remember the Sakic rookie going at $400 a few years ago (about 2008) but I didn't really start 'following' the card until 09/2014 when it was a POP 5 (correction from my original post where I said it was stuck at six forever, actually stuck at 5). I don't have a VCP subscription, but that would be a good source for pricing data on this card.
<< <i>Over the last few years I have really gotten to see just how prevalent the crack-resub game is. So many thousands of guys are doing it, at all levels-- the casual collector all the way to the big dealer. Especially when there is faith in the card not getting below a certain grade, or eventually getting back into its original grade, the thinking is, "Why not roll the dice?" because the potential payoff is so huge. It goes for all grades but especially when there are big price jumps between grades-- the pop reports are filled with "phantom" cards, so to speak, due to crack outs. One must take this into consideration when trying to gauge actual supply versus demand. Just as it is vital to some to consider truly high end 10s from the average 10, as crazy as that sounds considering all 10s should ideally be amazing-- which was how I approached the Michael Jordan Fleer card. >>
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The above line of reasoning IMO is correct. When the 1/2 grades and reviews made their way into the hobby it also created a lot of revenue for everyone. A card formerly an 8 and now and 8.5 increased in value from a few dollars upwards of 10's of thousands of dollars. This made money for collectors and dealers. It also made submitting cards for review like stated above a risk free transaction outside of the fee. If the card goes up you made money and in some cases lots of it. If it stayed the same nothing lost.
The big winner in all of this was the grading company since any card that was submitted was like a new card being sent in fee wise. Plus of a card went up in value more people would submit their cards which is what we see happening now. BGS 9.5 Jordan's being sent in, old Jordan PSA 9's resubmitted, a few pack breaks from boxes = pop numbers go up and unopened items increase in price. Not a bad thing and just a function of the markets.
<< <i>It is far more likely that people are cracking more PSA 9s, cracking BGS 9.5s and trimming better. People that think "new" Jordan RCs are being dug out of boxes (childhood collection or unopened) to be submitted to PSA and getting PSA 10 grades are simply fooling themselves. >>
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<< <i>Legit 86 Fleer bsk boxes cost over 30k and you will get 3 or 4 Jordan RCs of which 2 need to be 10s in order to simply recoup your costs. No one is busting 86 Fleer bsk in enough volume to be part of the discussion regardless of what they originally might have paid for it.
It is far more likely that people are cracking more PSA 9s, cracking BGS 9.5s and trimming better. People that think "new" Jordan RCs are being dug out of boxes (childhood collection or unopened) to be submitted to PSA and getting PSA 10 grades are simply fooling themselves.
Robb >>
100% agree!
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
<< <i>The higher the number on the pop report generally means the price falls on a PSA 10 card right? >>
Logically one could assume this to be true. However,if that card is in demand by many and excedes supply, the price should be buoyed by this scenario, as demand would outpace supply. Logically, of course. Sometimes with sports cards market this is not always the case.
<< <i>The higher the number on the pop report generally means the price falls on a PSA 10 card right? >>
Generally, yes. Some players and/or sets seem to always be in high demand.
Steve Young PSA 10 minus