Options
Pogue Two Sep 30 2015 - about $20 Million upper catalog estimates. Any guesses on what prices realiz
WinLoseWin
Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭✭✭
A little late and it is certainly not my area of dealing, but I find the upper end market interesting with a lot of history involved.
It will be a barometer, at least for the moment, of the high end coin market. The high end estimates in the catalog total about $20 million give or take a million.
My guess is $22 million total for the Sep 30 2015 auction that starts at 7:00pm eastern. You can watch the live bidding on Stacks Bowers site I believe. I already guessed $5 million total on the 1794 MS-66+ dollar in another thread.
Anyone got any guesses?
It will be a barometer, at least for the moment, of the high end coin market. The high end estimates in the catalog total about $20 million give or take a million.
My guess is $22 million total for the Sep 30 2015 auction that starts at 7:00pm eastern. You can watch the live bidding on Stacks Bowers site I believe. I already guessed $5 million total on the 1794 MS-66+ dollar in another thread.
Anyone got any guesses?
"To Be Esteemed Be Useful" - 1792 Birch Cent --- "I personally think we developed language because of our deep need to complain." - Lily Tomlin
0
Comments
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Looking for Top Pop Mercury Dime Varieties & High Grade Mercury Dime Toners.
Andrew Blinkiewicz-Heritage
Check out some of my 1794 Large Cents on www.coingallery.org
<< <i>I'm at the auction. Anyone else here? >>
How many bidders are in the room?
I bid $13k and it sold for $19k
<< <i>The floor bidding has picked up quite a bit since I wrote before. The best gold coins are doing extremely well but some of the others are falling well short of the high estimates. >>
That was quite the bidding war on the 1795!
<< <i>There are about 60 people on the floor but most of the bids seem to be coming from the phones. >>
About the same as last sale then. ( I couldn't make this one) The following day Signature auction there was literally no one there. All phone bids
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Here is what I was able to pull from the live bidding screen. Don't know what it all totals up at with the 17.5% yet.
Seemed like some of the 1795 early dollars brought less than I would have guessed. For example the 1795 MS-66 that I think brought over $1.2 million in 2005 sold for only $822,500 this time. On the 1794 $, I did guess that one exactly in another thread. Some gold went for under high estimate with many others blowing way past it. This sale seemed to have not much, if anything, bring less than low estimate unlike the first Pogue auction.
The following are the hammer prices before the 17.5% is added which is needed to get the real price realized:
2001 1807 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-112. Rarity-1. Large Stars, 50/20C. Mint State-65 (PCGS). $110,000 Sold
2002 1807 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-113a. Rarity-3. Small Stars. Mint State-65+ (PCGS). $65,000 Sold
2003 1807 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-114. Rarity-3. Large Stars. Mint State-66 (PCGS). $220,000 Sold
2004 1808/7 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-101. Rarity-1. Mint State-66 (PCGS). $42,500 Sold
2005 1808 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-103. Rarity-1. Mint State-67 (PCGS). $75,000 Sold
2006 1808 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-109a. Rarity-3. Mint State-67 (PCGS). $85,000 Sold
2007 1809 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-106. Rarity-3. Mint State-66+ (PCGS). $60,000 Sold
2008 1809 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-109b. Rarity-4. IIII Edge. Mint State-65 (PCGS). $40,000 Sold
2009 1810 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-110. Rarity-2. Mint State-65 (PCGS). $22,000 Sold
2010 1811/10 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-101. Rarity-1. Mint State-64+ (PCGS). $19,000 Sold
2011 1811 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-108. Rarity-2. Small 8. Mint State-67 (PCGS). $80,000 Sold
2012 1812/1 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-102. Rarity-2. Small 8. Mint State-65+ (PCGS). $60,000 Sold
2013 1812 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-110. Rarity-1. Mint State-67 (PCGS). $70,000 Sold
2014 1813 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-101a. Rarity-2. 50 C./UNI. Mint State-65 (PCGS). $37,500 Sold
2015 1813 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-106a. Rarity-2. Mint State-65+ (PCGS). $30,000 Sold
2016 1813 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-109. Rarity-3. Mint State-64+ (PCGS). $22,000 Sold
2017 1814/3 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-101a. Rarity-2. Mint State-64+ (PCGS). $28,000 Sold
2018 1814 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-102. Rarity-2. Mint State-66 (PCGS). $26,000 Sold
2019 1815/2 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-101. Rarity-2. Mint State-65 (PCGS). $95,000 Sold
2020 1817/3 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-101a. Rarity-2. Mint State-64+ (PCGS). $30,000 Sold
2021 1817/4 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-102. Rarity-7. VF-35 (PCGS). $240,000 Sold
2022 1817 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-106. Rarity-2. Mint State-66 (PCGS). $22,000 Sold
2023 1817 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-110a. Rarity-2. Mint State-67 (PCGS). $55,000 Sold
2024 1817 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-113. Rarity-2. Mint State-66 (PCGS). $50,000 Sold
2025 1818/7 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-102a. Rarity-2. Small 8. Mint State-65 (PCGS). $19,000 Sold
2026 1818/7 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-103a. Rarity-4. Large 8. Mint State-64 (PCGS). $12,500 Sold
2027 1818 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-104a. Rarity-3. Mint State-67 (PCGS). $75,000 Sold
2028 1818 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-104a. Rarity-3. Mint State-66+ (PCGS). $37,500 Sold
2029 1818 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-107. Rarity-8 as a Proof. Proof-65 (NGC). $52,500 Sold
2030 1819/8 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-102. Rarity-2. Large 9. Mint State-66 (PCGS). $35,000 Sold
2031 1819/8 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-104a. Rarity-1. Large 9. Mint State-66 (PCGS). $35,000 Sold
2032 1819 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-107. Rarity-3. Mint State-66 (PCGS). $70,000 Sold
2033 1819 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-108. Rarity-3. Mint State-64+ (PCGS). $16,000 Sold
2034 1820/19 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-101. Rarity-2. Square Base 2. Mint State-65+ (PCGS). $40,000 Sold
2035 1820 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-108. Rarity-2. Square Base No Knob 2, Large Date. Mint State-66+ (PCGS). $60,000 Sold
2036 1821 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-104. Rarity-8 as a Proof. Proof-65 (NGC). $45,000 Sold
2037 1821 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-107. Rarity-3. Mint State-66+ (PCGS). $55,000 Sold
2038 1822/"1" Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-101. Rarity-1. Mint State-66 (PCGS). $60,000 Sold
2039 1822 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-103. Rarity-8 as a Proof. Proof-65+ Cameo (PCGS). $180,000 Sold
2040 1822 Capped Bust Half Dollar. Overton-105. Rarity-3. Mint State-66 (PCGS). $75,000 Sold
2041 1794 Flowing Hair Silver Dollar. Bowers Borckardt-1, Bolender-1. Rarity-4. Mint State-66+ (PCGS). $4,250,000 Sold
2042 1795 Flowing Hair Silver Dollar. Bowers Borckardt-18, Bolender-7. Rarity-3. Three Leaves. Mint State-66 (PCGS). $700,000 Sold
2043 1795 Flowing Hair Silver Dollar. Bowers Borckardt-18, Bolender-7. Rarity-3. Three Leaves. Silver Plug. Mint State-65+ (PCGS). $600,000 Sold
2044 1795 Flowing Hair Silver Dollar. Bowers Borckardt-18, Bolender-7. Rarity-3. Three Leaves. Silver Plug. Mint State-64 (PCGS). $240,000 Sold
2045 1795 Flowing Hair Silver Dollar. Bowers Borckardt-21, Bolender-1. Rarity-2. Two Leaves. Mint State-65 (PCGS). $240,000 Sold
2046 1795 Flowing Hair Silver Dollar. Bowers Borckardt-24, Bolender-13. Rarity-5. Two Leaves. Mint State-65 (PCGS). $220,000 Sold
2047 1795 Flowing Hair Silver Dollar. Bowers Borckardt-27, Bolender-5. Rarity-1. Three Leaves. Mint State-64+ (PCGS). $220,000 Sold
2048 1821 Capped Head Left Quarter Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-1. Rarity-5. Mint State-66+ (PCGS). $475,000 Sold
2049 1824/1 Capped Head Left Quarter Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-1. Rarity-5. Mint State-63 (PCGS). $60,000 Sold
2050 1825 Capped Head Left Quarter Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-2. Rarity-4+. Mint State-67 (PCGS). $425,000 Sold
2051 1826/'5' Capped Head Left Quarter Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-1. Rarity-5+. About Uncirculated-58 (PCGS). $40,000 Sold
2052 1827 Capped Head Left Quarter Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-1. Rarity-5. Mint State-65 (PCGS). $130,000 Sold
2053 1829 Capped Head Left Quarter Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-1. Rarity-4+. Mint State-65 (PCGS). $90,000 Sold
2054 1830 Capped Head Left Quarter Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-1. Rarity-4. Mint State-65 (PCGS). $65,000 Sold
2055 1831 Capped Head Left Quarter Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-1. Rarity-4. Mint State-67 (PCGS). $300,000 Sold
2056 1833 Capped Head Left Quarter Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-1. Rarity-5. Mint State-66+ (PCGS). $150,000 Sold
2057 1833 Capped Head Left Quarter Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-1. Rarity-5. Mint State-66 (PCGS). $110,000 Sold
2058 1834 Classic Head Quarter Eagle. McCloskey-1. Small Head. Mint State-65 (PCGS). $40,000 Sold
2059 1834 Classic Head Quarter Eagle. McCloskey-2. Large Head. Mint State-65+ (PCGS). $75,000 Sold
2060 1835 Classic Head Quarter Eagle. McCloskey-3. Mint State-65+ (PCGS). $45,000 Sold
2061 1836 Classic Head Quarter Eagle. McCloskey-2. Script 8. Mint State-65+ (PCGS). $47,500 Sold
2062 1836 Classic Head Quarter Eagle. McCloskey-2. Script 8. Mint State-65+ (PCGS). $47,500 Sold
2063 1836 Classic Head Quarter Eagle. McCloskey-6. Block 8. Mint State-66 (PCGS). $52,500 Sold
2064 1837 Classic Head Quarter Eagle. McCloskey-1. Mint State-65 (PCGS). $50,000 Sold
2065 1838 Classic Head Quarter Eagle. McCloskey-1. Mint State-67 (PCGS). $200,000 Sold
2066 1839-C Classic Head Quarter Eagle. McCloskey-3. Winter 3-C. Mint State-62 (PCGS). $37,500 Sold
2067 1839-D Classic Head Quarter Eagle. McCloskey-2. Winter 1-B. Mint State-64 (PCGS). $90,000 Sold
2068 1839-O Classic Head Quarter Eagle. McCloskey-2. Winter-1. Mint State-65 (PCGS). $65,000 Sold
2069 1795 Capped Bust Right Half Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-3. Rarity-3+. Small Eagle. Mint State-65 (PCGS). $550,000 Sold
2070 1795 Capped Bust Right Half Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-6. Rarity-5. Small Eagle. Mint State-63+ (PCGS). $180,000 Sold
2071 1796/5 Capped Bust Right Half Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-1. Rarity-4+. Mint State-62+ (PCGS). $130,000 Sold
2072 1797 Capped Bust Right Half Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-1. Rarity-7. 15 Stars. Small Eagle. Mint State-61 (PCGS). $220,000 Sold
2073 1797 Capped Bust Right Half Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-3. Rarity-6. 16 Stars. Small Eagle. About Uncirculated-58 (PCGS). $245,000 Sold
2074 1798 Capped Bust Right Half Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-1. Rarity-7. Small Eagle. About Uncirculated-55 (PCGS). $1,000,000 Sold
2075 1795 Capped Bust Right Half Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-15. Rarity-5+. Heraldic Eagle. Mint State-64 (PCGS). $240,000 Sold
2076 1797/5 Capped Bust Right Half Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-7. Rarity-6+. Heraldic Eagle. Mint State-62+ (PCGS). $190,000 Sold
2077 1798 Capped Bust Right Half Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-2. Rarity-5. Large 8, 13-Star Reverse, Narrow Date. Heraldic Eagle. Mint State-63 (PCGS). $50,000 Sold
2078 1798 Capped Bust Right Half Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-3. Rarity-5. Large 8, 14 Stars Reverse, Wide Date. Heraldic Eagle. About Uncirculated-55 (PCGS). $37,500 Sold
2079 1798 Capped Bust Right Half Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-6. Rarity-6. Small 8. Heraldic Eagle. About Uncirculated-58 (PCGS). $19,000 Sold
2080 1799 Capped Bust Right Half Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-5. Rarity-5+. Large Reverse Stars. Mint State-63+ (PCGS). $75,000 Sold
2081 1800 Capped Bust Right Half Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-2. Rarity-3+. Mint State-64 (PCGS). $65,000 Sold
2082 1802/1 Capped Bust Right Half Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-1. Rarity-4+. Mint State-66 (PCGS). $180,000 Sold
2083 1803/2 Capped Bust Right Half Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-4. Rarity-4. Mint State-66+ (PCGS). $375,000 Sold
2084 1804 Capped Bust Right Half Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-1. Rarity-4+. Small 8. Mint State-64 (PCGS). $47,500 Sold
2085 1804 Capped Bust Right Half Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-5. Rarity-6+. Normal 8 over Large 8. Mint State-64 (PCGS). $80,000 Sold
2086 1805 Capped Bust Right Half Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-2. Rarity-4. Mint State-65 (PCGS). $140,000 Sold
2087 1806 Capped Bust Right Half Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-1. Rarity-4. Pointed 6, Stars 8 x 5. Mint State-65 (PCGS). $110,000 Sold
2088 1806 Capped Bust Right Half Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-6. Rarity-2. Round Top 6, Stars 7 x 6. Mint State-65 (PCGS). $87,500 Sold
2089 1807 Capped Bust Right Half Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-1. Rarity-4+. Mint State-65+ (PCGS). $200,000 Sold
2090 1807 Capped Bust Right Half Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-6. Rarity-4+. Mint State-64 (PCGS). $52,500 Sold
2091 1795 Capped Bust Right Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-3. Rarity-6. 9 Leaves. Mint State-63+ (PCGS). $900,000 Sold
2092 1795 Capped Bust Right Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-4. Rarity-5. 13 Leaves. Mint State-66+ (PCGS). $2,200,000 Sold
2093 1796 Capped Bust Right Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-1. Rarity-4. Mint State-62+ (PCGS). $350,000 Sold
2094 1797 Capped Bust Right Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-1. Rarity-5. Small Eagle. Mint State-61 (PCGS). $375,000 Sold
2095 1797 Capped Bust Right Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-4. Rarity-4+. Heraldic Eagle. Mint State-63 (PCGS). $130,000 Sold
2096 1798/7 Capped Bust Right Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-1. Rarity-4+. Stars 9x4. Mint State-62+ (PCGS). $220,000 Sold
2097 1798/7 Capped Bust Right Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-2. Rarity-6-. Stars 7x6. Mint State-61 (PCGS). $600,000 Sold
2098 1799 Capped Bust Right Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-7. Rarity-3. Small Obverse Stars. Mint State-64+ (PCGS). $140,000 Sold
2099 1799 Capped Bust Right Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-10. Rarity-3. Large Obverse Stars. Mint State-65+ (PCGS). $300,000 Sold
2100 1799 Capped Bust Right Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-10. Rarity-3. Large Obverse Stars. Mint State-65 (PCGS). $220,000 Sold
2101 1800 Capped Bust Right Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-1. Rarity-3+. Mint State-63+ (PCGS). $85,000 Sold
2102 1801 Capped Bust Right Eagle. 1801 Bass Dannreuther-2. Rarity-2. Mint State-65 (PCGS). $185,000 Sold
2103 1801 Capped Bust Right Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-2. Rarity-2. Mint State-64+ (PCGS). $160,000 Sold
2104 1803 Capped Bust Right Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-5. Rarity-4+. Large Reverse Stars, Extra Star. Mint State-65 (PCGS). $200,000 Sold
2105 1804 Capped Bust Right Eagle. Bass Dannreuther-1. Rarity-4+. Crosslet 4. Mint State-63+ (PCGS). $375,000 Sold
"To Be Esteemed Be Useful" - 1792 Birch Cent --- "I personally think we developed language because of our deep need to complain." - Lily Tomlin
Also much nicer with Melissa Karstedt calling part of the sale than the Sotheby's guy the entire time. Although this time he did seem a little more involved at least noting the year on most lots as opposed to the 1st sale when he seemed disinterested in whatever those trinkets were that were being sold.
"To Be Esteemed Be Useful" - 1792 Birch Cent --- "I personally think we developed language because of our deep need to complain." - Lily Tomlin
Looks like Ablinky was the closest at $27.75 million compared to $26,120,838 announced by Stacks's Bowers.
http://www.coinweek.com/auctions-news/stacks-bowers/coin-auctions-pogue-ii-sale-tops-26-million-in-nyc/
"To Be Esteemed Be Useful" - 1792 Birch Cent --- "I personally think we developed language because of our deep need to complain." - Lily Tomlin
“We’ve done all we could. It’s up to the coin gods now.”
David: <<I'm at the auction. Anyone else here?>>
I was there, but I was not logged on to this forum at the time.
TDN: <<30M including the juice>>
AbLinky: <<Im at $27.75 million with juice. >>
BigMoose: <<33 Million with the juice. >>
What are the origins of these projected totals? Were you guys drinking before the auction?
Some of the catalogue estimates were logical; others were not sensible. I would not take such estimates so seriously.
The reality is that this was a very successful and very exciting auction. The coins brought retail prices, for the most part. Many brought very strong prices. There were some extremely strong prices. It was the most successful coin auction since the Newman sale of Nov. 2013. I do not know one major player who was seriously expecting higher prices overall.
The Marvelous Pogue Family Coin Collection, Part 10 – Gem Capped Bust Half Dollars
The Marvelous Pogue Family Coin Collection, Part 9 – US Gold Coin Rarities Bring Strong Prices
I can envision a scenario where the entire difference between the actual results and my guess was made up in the early dollars alone. All it would have taken is one more deep pocketed buyer. Frankly, the prices realized on the coins were just slightly on the weak side. For instance, the Bullowa coin could easily have fetched seven figures if one more player had been there.
<< <i>What are the origins of these projected totals? Were you guys drinking before the auction?
Some of the catalogue estimates were logical; others were not sensible. I would not take such estimates so seriously.
The reality is that this was a very successful and very exciting auction. The coins brought retail prices, for the most part. Many brought very strong prices. There were some extremely strong prices. It was the most successful coin auction since the Newman sale of Nov. 2013. I do not know one major player who was seriously expecting higher prices overall. >>
Sounds like some Thursday evening quarterbacking by someone that had no skin in the game and also did not show up in this thread to post his own guess prior to the sale. Then wants to attempt to ridicule some that actually had the guts to post a guess.
Then that is followed up by some less than analytical some of this some of that and then some other.
Looking for Top Pop Mercury Dime Varieties & High Grade Mercury Dime Toners.
Keyman64: <<Sounds like some Thursday evening quarterbacking by someone that had no skin in the game and also did not show up in this thread to post his own guess prior to the sale.>>
The guessing game is silly. Even if the time was taken to figure a wholesale level for all 105 coins in Pogue II, it is impossible to know the extent to which collectors will participate or how emotional they will become about individual coins. When an auction really heats up, a collector may pay 150k for a coin he really likes even if he knows that it has a wholesale value around 50k. This happens at times. It cannot be predicted to a large extent.
Keyman64: <<Then wants to attempt to ridicule some that actually had the guts to post a guess.>>
IMO, unless someone really is researching all 105 coins in depth before the sale, the guesses are just part of a goofy game, not an endeavor characterized by courage. In any event, it was not by intention to ridicule anyone.
It was my intention to emphasize that the sale was very successful in that the results were well above wholesale, retail levels for the most part. Please read my two post-sale articles. I provide many examples of coins that brought retail prices. Stack's-Bowers succeeded; collectors were drawn to fervently participate in this sale. IMO, it does not make any sense and is counter-educational to say that the sale "could have" brought a few million more. The mentality of this thread is similar to forums where people bet on who will win the Academy Awards.
IMO, talking about the prices in a serious way involves identifying wholesale and retail levels. I interviewed many successful bidders over the phone and by e-mail. I have been analyzing auction results for more than twenty years. I have written more than 300 articles for CoinWeek, more than 200 articles for Numismatic News & other Krause Publications, and dozens published elsewhere. It is Keyman64 who is ridiculing me. Even if one wishes to disagree with my methodology, and I welcome disagreements, it should be clear that I have considerable pertinent experience and a great deal of knowledge of the subject matter.
Did Keyman64 view the coins and attend the sale?
The Pogue Family Coin Collection, Part 10 – Gem Capped Bust Half Dollars
The Marvelous Pogue Family Coin Collection, Part 9 – US Gold Coin Rarities Bring Strong Prices
insightful10@gmail.com
<< <i>Keyman64: <<Sounds like some Thursday evening quarterbacking by someone that had no skin in the game and also did not show up in this thread to post his own guess prior to the sale.>>
The guessing game is silly. Even if the time was taken to figure a wholesale level for all 105 coins in Pogue II, it is impossible to know the extent to which collectors will participate or how emotional they will become about individual coins. When an auction really heats up, a collector may pay 150k for a coin he really likes even if he knows that it has a wholesale value around 50k. This happens at times. It cannot be predicted to a large extent.
Keyman64: <<Then wants to attempt to ridicule some that actually had the guts to post a guess.>>
IMO, unless someone really is researching all 105 coins in depth before the sale, the guesses are just part of a goofy game, not an endeavor characterized by courage. In any event, it was not by intention to ridicule anyone.
It was my intention to emphasize that the sale was very successful in that the results were well above wholesale, retail levels for the most part. Please read my two post-sale articles. I provide many examples of coins that brought retail prices. Stack's-Bowers succeeded; collectors were drawn to fervently participate in this sale. IMO, it does not make any sense and is counter-educational to say that the sale "could have" brought a few million more. The mentality of this thread is similar to forums where people bet on who will win the Academy Awards.
IMO, talking about the prices in a serious way involves identifying wholesale and retail levels. I interviewed many successful bidders over the phone and by e-mail. I have been analyzing auction results for more than twenty years. I have written more than 300 articles for CoinWeek, more than 200 articles for Numismatic News & other Krause Publications, and dozens published elsewhere. It is Keyman64 who is ridiculing me. Even if one wishes to disagree with my methodology, and I welcome disagreements, it should be clear that I have considerable pertinent experience and a great deal of knowledge of the subject matter.
Did Keyman64 view the coins and attend the sale?
The Pogue Family Coin Collection, Part 10 – Gem Capped Bust Half Dollars
The Marvelous Pogue Family Coin Collection, Part 9 – US Gold Coin Rarities Bring Strong Prices
insightful10@gmail.com >>
So if all of the above stuff you say is ridiculous and silly, why the heck are you showing up in the the thread to ridicule/poke fun/Thursday evening quarterback etc? If you think it is really like this, I would think you would just "rise above" and stay away rather than to come in here with your holier-than-thou type of attitude.
Then it seems that you think TDN didn't study the auction well enough to come up with a guess that he can back up unless he was drunk. Really?!
Is this the way in which you build the reputation of the company that you work for? How about another example back in July when all you wanted to do was pick a fight with Kevin Flynn on the forums here instead of calling him to discuss or send a private message or email ...Is this another fine example of you representing CoinWeek?
Now you want to try to start something with me?
So what if you have decades of experience, you still write articles where you reference the 1916-D Mercury dime as the key. With any true analysis, you would know that isn't true when it comes to Mint State or Mint State Full Bands. Don't try to pitch all of your experience when you just want to parrot others that have stared at the mintage figures published in the Redbook for far too long. I've done the analysis, built the spreadsheet, studied populations for 3 TPGs for a sample and also looked into the prevailing market availability when it comes to major auction houses.
In regards to the pre-auction estimates, you can read what I wrote about that in this thread.
Looking for Top Pop Mercury Dime Varieties & High Grade Mercury Dime Toners.
I honestly believe that some have over-reacted and mis-interpreted my intentions.
1. I did not ridicule anyone. The 'have you been drinking line' is a common expression worldwide. It is supposed to be funny. It is not implied that anyone really has been drinking in ways that are relevant to the current discussions. I admit that I do not have the best sense of humor. It is not fair, however, to suggest that I was ridiculing anyone.
2. In a football game, each team is trying to score as many points as possible, at least for the first three quarters, and trying to prevent the opposing team from scoring any points. I honestly believe that a sports analogy is not in any way relevant to a coin auction. Similarly, the betting on sporting events is not any way analogous to betting on outcomes of coin auctions. When collectors partipate in an auction, their bidding depends in part upon how much they like specific coins and to what extent they wish to place such coins in their own respective collections. I just do not see how betting on or predicting such outcomes makes any sense.
In my current article, I discuss a coin that realized an extremely strong price at this Pogue II auction and, although I find that price to be largely unexplainable, I provide plausible reasons as to why other specific coins in the Pogue II sale realized strong to extremely strong prices.
The Pogue Family Coin Collection, Part 11: A Puzzling Price for an 1822 Half Dollar
3.If all the bidders in an auction were dealers seeking to buy for resale or were speculators, then it might be logical to predict outcomes. To a great extent, I can deduce wholesale levels. Some members of this forum can, too. IMO, and all are invited to disagree, attempts to predict retail levels for extreme rarities at auctions show a mis-understanding of the nature of coin auctions.
4. The predictions in this thread were harmful in the sense that the predictions that were higher than the actual total for the Pogue II sale give the impression that the auction did not go all that well or could very likely have gone a lot better. Those predicting might not have intended to put forth any such impressions. Nevertheless, I believe that threads such as this one are counter-educational. The reality is that prices were strong to very strong; the Pogue II event realized retail levels. A beginner reading the first part of this thread would be likely to end up with less knowledge rather than more knowledge about the Pogue II event. It has been for twenty years and still is my intention to help people learn about coin auctions in general. So, I sometimes respond to remarks and threads that I honestly find to be counter-educational. In this regard, I am representing myself, not any publication.
5. Regarding KF's book on 1838-O halves, I thought he would enjoy defending his book and putting forth reasons as to why it is important. It was not my intention to upset him; I was shocked by his reaction. Public debates about a coin like an 1838-O half, a Great Rarity, may be of interest to many coin collectors. Debates help trigger interest in coin collecting.
Additionally, R. W. Julian, over a period of many decades, has extensively researched U.S. Mint archives and related historical documents, including much information regarding the beginnings of the New Orleans Mint. Julian wrote an epic article on the subject in the 1970s!
I honestly think that Julian's research, work done by David Stone, and an article that I wrote well before Flynn's book was published covered the subject matter to a large extent, sufficiently though not perfectly. I believe that I put forth solid reasons, partly based on R.W. Julian's research (with his cooperation), that 1838-O halves were struck in New Orleans during a particular time period.
6. It would be a good idea for KF to discuss the point of his book publicly, not privately to me in a telephone conversation. I had thought that he would want to do so. In any event, I welcome feedback and debate, which I think is very healthy for the coin community. Controversies increase interest in coin collecting and cause people to devote more time to coin related undertakings.
Controversies also often lead to more knowledge. None of us can be right all the time. We learn from research and rational thinking done by others.
Eliasberg 1838-O Half Dollar and the Controversy over its origins
There are quite a few PCGS graded MS-66 or -66+ coins in the Pogue Collection that were previously NGC graded as MS-67. This coin, the Kaufman-“Thomas”-Pogue 1822, was NGC graded MS-67 when it was auctioned in April 2009, for $25,300, 28.7% of the price that it brought in the Pogue II event. Put differently, it brought 248% more at the Pogue II sale than the same coin realized at the ‘Central States’ sale in 2009.
When the Joe Thomas coins went off at FUN and then Central States in 2009 it was a blood bath. No one wanted to stick their necks out to buy even nice coins at fair prices. Some of the Joe Thomas type coins fetched 1/3 to 1/2 of what they did only a few years earlier. I'm not surprised this 1822 was probably halved in price as well. It was almost the baby being tossed out with the bathwater. The Joe Thomas pedigree wasn't a plus either as some of the premier coins were over-graded (eg Ex-Knoxville 1839 ND half in NGC MS67). The market was temporarily insane in the first half of 2009. I don't think you can use those prices to compare to any other time frame....other than Jan-July 1982 which was just about as insane.
Although markets for rare U.S. coins were bottoming out in April 2009, a true MS-67 grade Capped Bust half dollar from any date in the 1820s would then have been worth significantly more than $25,300. More than eighteen years earlier, in Auction ’90, Rarcoa reportedly sold a PCGS graded MS-67 1822 for more than $50,000!
It probably wasn't a true MS67 even if NGC gave it that grade. But, it didn't matter in early 2009. Most anything in NGC early silver type (5 figures or more) was bringing next grade down money. It really didn't matter if the coin was stickered, nice, or not nice. It didn't bring what it should have. NGC coins were being picketed at that time. No one wanted NGC coins unless they were discounted to the next grade, or at least down to a + grade. A comparison to Auction '90 is sort of apples to oranges as that was still close to the crazy market peak of the 1983-1990 bull run. While that MS67 1822 going for more than $50K in 1990 seems high, it probably wasn't for that kind of quality. The finest pop tops are one of the few things that have continued to advance in the gem type/better date market since 1990. That same $50K is what one of my pop top seated quarters was worth in April 1990. It recently sold in Gardner for $88K. Interesting that both figures are the same! The Pogue 1822 half is an incredible looking coin imo. They must have had some opportunities to pick other MS66's or MS67's over the years but went for this one....during the 2009 crash. That perfect storm/discount pricing may have spurred them on. If they really wanted an "all there" MS67 I'm not sure why they wouldn't have been able to dig out sometime in the past 25 years. This was the coin that Pogue/Akers settled on. That may count for something.
While it's true that CAC has only stickered a single MS67 1822 out of the 3. It's probably just as likely that they have rejected at least one of them. These days, we don't bat an eyelid when a superb eye appealing Morgan dollar or colored commem brings a price commensurate with one 2-3 grades higher. While this has typically not been the case in gem type, the tide is slowly turning in that direction. How can it not? Collectors are starting to want the most eye appealing coins - color - luster - strike....stray marks are becoming less important than ever. In 1989 a superb eye appealing near gem bust half couldn't get a MS65 grade if it had a single hairline across Liberty's face. Today, that same coin could go MS66/67. And a lot of the near "perfect" coins of that era that didn't have strong eye appeal, have struggled to even retain the grades they were given back in 1989/1990.
Analyst brings up many good points in this article. I'd agree with most all of it. On a side note, why did the Newman MS67 1840-o ND quarter bring well over $300K? That was insane too. And I think we know the answer.
One point is that this was the most puzzling runaway price in the whole Pogue II event.
Roadrunner: "The other dates compared against it in the above link don't seem to have quite the same mix of eye appeal and strike. The obv strike on the 1822 is very strong. A lot of the detail reminds me of a special striking, especially the peripherals."
It is not a special striking. It was not all that well made. There are noticeable imperfections on the face and in the right obverse inner field. Some of these may be due to die grease. When seen in hand, it is a coin that a viewer has to think about; it does not jump out of the holder and grab you!
Roadrunner: "Only the centers show some faint weakness. As 1822's go, this one is pretty sharp."
People who seek gem quality bust halves, Liberty Seated halves and Barber halves do not seem to be that focused on the strike. Coins that are not especially well struck may be certified as grading 67 or 68. Even so, I am glad that Roadrunner raised this point. I will compare the strike on the "Thomas"-Pogue 1822 to the strike on some other 1822 halves that have been certified as MS-65 to -67. A couple of these, however, have not been seen in a long time. It may not be practical to assemble a set of images. This is relevant to the point that, while it seems to be the best of its die pairing, there could be other gems of the same die pairing that are unattributed or were incorrectly attributed in the past.
Roadrunner: "When the Joe Thomas coins went off at FUN and then Central States in 2009 it was a blood bath. No one wanted to stick their necks out to buy even nice coins at fair prices. Some of the Joe Thomas type coins fetched 1/3 to 1/2 of what they did only a few years earlier. .... I don't think you can use those prices to compare to any other time frame....other than Jan-July 1982 which was just about as insane."
I hope that it is not implied that I was mis-characterizing the auction prices in the Thomas sale. In many articles, I made it clear that the Thomas sale occurred when markets for rare U.S. coins reached rock bottom. Indeed, I have firmly asserted this point. Even so, it is puzzling that this same coin brought 248% more in the Pogue II event, nearly 3.5 times as much. Besides, not all the prices in the Thomas sale were low.
Roadrunner: "A comparison to Auction '90 is sort of apples to oranges as that was still close to the crazy market peak of the 1983-1990 bull run."
Markets peaked in March 1990 and fell quite a bit by August 1990. Levels were still falling and active players were scared. I really stand by my remarks regarding the ranking of the Thomas-Pogue 1822 article in the cited article, which I am glad that Roadrunner read. I appreciate his interest.
: "The Pogue 1822 half is an incredible looking coin imo."
When did Roadrunner view it 'in hand'? IMO, there were much better looking bust halves in this same Pogue II event. I discuss some in that article and in part 10 of my series on the Pogue Collection.
The Pogue Family Coin Collection, Part 10 – 1807-12 Capped Bust Half Dollars
"They must have had some opportunities to pick other MS66's or MS67's over the years but went for this one...."
Who are they? One plausible explanation is that two die variety collectors were competing for this one. If Stephen Herrman's suggestion is accurate, it may be of much higher quality than the second finest of this same die pairing. At this point, I will not comment further on the condition census for this die pairing.
"This was the coin that Pogue/Akers settled on. That may count for something."
Akers was not longer advising the Pogues in 2009. His relationship with the Pogues ended many years earlier. Plus, the Poque quest for Capped Bust halves came later in the project. Richard B., Larry H., and Brent deserve much credit for assembling such a set of CB halves in a short amount of time. Many amazing halves were acquired; this 1822 was not one of them. It has already been reported that the Pouge set of FH and DB halves was the all-time finest.
Finest Known 1794 Half Dollar, PCGS graded MS-64
"While it's true that CAC has only stickered a single MS67 1822 out of the 3. It's probably just as likely that they have rejected at least one of them."
There are a lot of people who collect bust halves and there are quite a few collectors who have assembled type sets of all silver halves. CAC was founded late in 2007. Should we really speculate on the 1822 halves that have been "rejected"? Also, other 66 grade pieces could be better than the Thomas-Pogue 1822.
"In 1989 a superb eye appealing near gem bust half couldn't get a MS65 grade if it had a single hairline across Liberty's face. Today, that same coin could go MS66/67."
Yes, I agree that this point is true and educational.
"And a lot of the near "perfect" coins of that era that didn't have strong eye appeal, have struggled to even retain the grades they were given back in 1989/1990."
I am not so sure about this point. Please provide some examples.
Analyst brings up many good points in this article. I'd agree with most all of it.
I am grateful that you questioned or challenged some points. I will further research the striking detail on 1822 halves.
insightful10@gmail.com
Before the sale, Laurie told me I was nuts when I guessed at $2.3M hammer ($100K more than the Hayes-Pogue '08 QE). When I offered her a bet for a dollar at $2M with 2/1 odds in her favor if she took the under, a rather irritated look with something suggest some mental infirmity on my part. But did not take the bet . .
I think I guessed within 5% on Missouri Cabinet. Remarkable how little I knew and know about that area and its varieties.
My "algorithm" was so messed up than, except for seven to ten special coins, my" really off" highs and lows somehow balanced out. . . . . So much for estimates
5. Regarding KF's book on 1838-O halves, I thought he would enjoy defending his book and putting forth reasons as to why it is important. It was not my intention to upset him; I was shocked by his reaction. Public debates about a coin like an 1838-O half, a Great Rarity, may be of interest to many coin collectors. Debates help trigger interest in coin collecting.
Additionally, R. W. Julian, over a period of many decades, has extensively researched U.S. Mint archives and related historical documents, including much information regarding the beginnings of the New Orleans Mint. Julian wrote an epic article on the subject in the 1970s!
I honestly think that Julian's research, work done by David Stone, and an article that I wrote well before Flynn's book was published covered the subject matter to a large extent, sufficiently though not perfectly. I believe that I put forth solid reasons, partly based on R.W. Julian's research (with his cooperation), that 1838-O halves were struck in New Orleans during a particular time period.
6. It would be a good idea for KF to discuss the point of his book publicly, not privately to me in a telephone conversation. I had thought that he would want to do so. In any event, I welcome feedback and debate, which I think is very healthy for the coin community. Controversies increase interest in coin collecting and cause people to devote more time to coin related undertakings.
Controversies also often lead to more knowledge. None of us can be right all the time. We learn from research and rational thinking done by others.
Eliasberg 1838-O Half Dollar and the Controversy over its origins
Greg
You brought this up before when I was presenting my 1838-O half dollar book that I wrote with JD. IMO your belief that I needed to defend my book, why would you not ask me first if that was what I wanted to do? It was not a public debate.
My thread was presenting the book as new information for the hobby. IMO you attacked it stating that Julian and yourself had already covered this.
Your original article IMO was an attack on David Stone and Mark Van Winkle's book on the 1838-O. Of course an attack is primary from the perspective of the one being attacked. When I met them this year at Heritage, I asked if they felt it was an attack, they said yes. I would estimate that between your and Julian's articles, you uncovered about 10-15% of the information on the 1838-O half. The majority of the critical archive letters that are in my and JDs book had never been published. The critical analysis of the diagnostics which showed the sequence they were struck was never published, the critical analysis of the reverse diagnostics of the 1839-O halves that are called proofs absolutely proved that one of the 38-O halves was struck after the 39-O halves. This was never published. Please do not compare what you do not know. Have you read my book? I doubt it, as I only printed 50 books.
I am not going to get into a debate with you or Julian about this here, as last time it wasted to much time and effort. When I did respond to your claims with quotes from your article, you never responded in the previous thread. Your reasoning in your article why you believed the 38-O halves were struck in New Orleans were incorrect. I suggest you attempt to find a copy and read, then compare and see if you covered "to a large extent" this information.
If you want to call me, send me a PM, will gladly discuss this privately.
Sincerely
Kevin
I was going to wait a few years to bump this thread, but decided to do it now instead since I won't have any articles to ever promote.
Originally posted by: Analyst
-“The guessing game is silly.”
and
-”What are the origins of these projected totals? Were you guys drinking before the auction?
Some of the catalogue estimates were logical; others were not sensible. I would not take such estimates so seriously.
The reality is that this was a very successful and very exciting auction. The coins brought retail prices, for the most part. Many brought very strong prices. There were some extremely strong prices. It was the most successful coin auction since the Newman sale of Nov. 2013. I do not know one major player who was seriously expecting higher prices overall.”
and
- “IMO, unless someone really is researching all 105 coins in depth before the sale, the guesses are just part of a goofy game, not an endeavor characterized by courage. In any event, it was not by intention to ridicule anyone.”
Response: Not to worry. No one could mistake as ridicule statements like “...the guesses are just part of a goofy game, not an endeavor characterized by courage” or “Were you guys drinking before the auction?”
You have correctly discovered the true purpose of this thread. That we tried using a goofy game as a test of our courage and we have failed at our endeavor. We live humiliated now and forever.
Or perhaps it was one way of getting a quick and simple measure of what some views and expectations were for the high end market against a starting point of Stack's Bowers expectations - that being their estimates. I assume those estimates, on average, are likely to be somewhat low because being unable to report that such a major collection did not top the high estimates would not look the best for the company or it would indicate a weakening market. (It almost looked like that was going to happen in the Pogue One auction until the gold coins greatly exceeded estimates.)
Indeed, this thread would not make much sense to do if there were no estimates for each lot and if the number of lots in the auction were not small enough to add them up. Guessing an auction with very many lots would indeed be pointless unless each lot were studied and added up. By having so few lots, these Pogue sales offer an unusual situation of being able to use an entire auction to offer one number summarizing ones opinion on the state of the high end market or at least Stack's Bowers ability to estimate it and probably both.
I agree that this was a very successful auction with most coins bringing very strong prices.
Originally posted by: Analyst
“The mentality of this thread is similar to forums where people bet on who will win the Academy Awards.”
Response: Yes, we will be doing that also and more. Is everybody paid up and got all their bets settled?
Originally posted by: Analyst
“If all the bidders in an auction were dealers seeking to buy for resale or were speculators, then it might be logical to predict outcomes. To a great extent, I can deduce wholesale levels. Some members of this forum can, too. IMO, and all are invited to disagree, attempts to predict retail levels for extreme rarities at auctions show a mis-understanding of the nature of coin auctions.”
Response: Invitation to disagree accepted. Not trying to predict retail or wholesale levels. Just guessing the overall total no matter what it was made up of. The guesses, predictions or whatever anyone wants to call them are just a sample of what people reading on here at the time viewed as a possible outcome in the ultra high end market. Or some guesses maybe were just for fun (part of the purpose of a hobby).
Also see first response above.
Originally posted by: Analyst
“The predictions in this thread were harmful in the sense that the predictions that were higher than the actual total for the Pogue II sale give the impression that the auction did not go all that well or could very likely have gone a lot better. Those predicting might not have intended to put forth any such impressions. Nevertheless, I believe that threads such as this one are counter-educational. The reality is that prices were strong to very strong; the Pogue II event realized retail levels. A beginner reading the first part of this thread would be likely to end up with less knowledge rather than more knowledge about the Pogue II event. It has been for twenty years and still is my intention to help people learn about coin auctions in general. So, I sometimes respond to remarks and threads that I honestly find to be counter-educational. In this regard, I am representing myself, not any publication.”
Response: I disagree that such threads are harmful or cause people to end up with less knowledge or are “counter-educational”.
In part I posted it because I have always agreed with the meaning behind your signature line:
"In order to understand the scarce coins that you own or see, you must learn about coins that you cannot afford." -Me (Analyst)
While some may write off any interest in coins that are beyond their means. I have always been interested in such coins (and the market for them) because of their ties to history and in terms of what people back then were seeing newly issued by the US government.
It should be noted that Analyst ignored the lower guesses. Is there a Cherrypicking guide for selecting only those numbers needed to draw a particular conclusion? Please be sure to read my A FINAL NOTE for why it matters.
A FINAL NOTE
The critique by Analyst had me wondering if the idea of crowd wisdom and counting jelly beans in a jar might have any application here. And I learned something important -
on average, we are absolute expert numismatic guessers.
There were 7 guesses and the average of those guesses was $26,164,285.71 compared to the actual auction result of $26,120,838. So it is now an undisputed scientifically proven fact that any 7 or more board members can always predict with incredible accuracy.
Good thing you took this guessing game gimmick to task. Now we will have to do it much more just to see how well it works. Of course, it will probably cause all numismatic knowledge to cease existing as it is “counter-educational” and “harmful”. But that's fine. After all of numismatics is destroyed we will start guessing lottery numbers, stock markets, sports scores, farm auctions and much more while standing on the ashes of the coin hobby/business/Mint industrial complex crushed by a simple thread guessing an auction result.
"To Be Esteemed Be Useful" - 1792 Birch Cent --- "I personally think we developed language because of our deep need to complain." - Lily Tomlin
Kevin:
This is not a forum for stand-alone press releases. Threads regarding research are supposed to serve an educational purpose beyond the publishing of announcements. It is fair and logical to ask why a book was published and how it adds to the pre-existing body of knowledge. An important part of the purpose of most message boards is to enable the members of a forum to discuss, including debating activity, matters of educational importance. It is certainly fair to wonder in this case whether some of the material in a book was adequately covered elsewhere and to ask questions about the contents of the book. A private telephone conversation usually does not provide educational information for many people. After R. W. Julian had done so much research regarding the NO Mint over a period of decades, and I had written a recent article on 1838-O halves, it seemed fair and logical then for me to question the purpose, scope and contributions of such a book. In that other thread, I was asking questions, not drawing conclusions.
Kevin:
Fine, please tell us why these letters are important. Kevin could have emphasized these letters in the other thread and not become hostile.
Kevin:
Whose was being criticized? An emission sequence of 1838-O halves would seem to be better suited for the JRCS journal than to be a centerpiece of a book. What did the JRCS researchers say about the details of Kevin's theory of an emission sequence?
Kevin:
I then attempted to respond. Before I could do so, that thread was locked by someone here at CU-PCGS. If Kevin had been less hostile, maybe dozens of readers of that thread would have purchased this book and a second print run would have been required for additional orders to be filled.
Kevin:
I honestly believe that the theory put forth by VW & DS was counter-productive and potentially harmful. I honestly believed in my counter-arguments to their theory and I did the best I could to put forth an alternate theory. It is relevant that I have been researching Proofs and Specimen Strikings for a long period of time and have written a great deal of material about such topics. My article on the Newman Collection Proof 1818 quarter was cited by the judges regarding an award that I won from the NLG.
The Fabulous Eric Newman Collection, Part 4: Proof 1818 Quarter
I am grateful to R. W. Julian for cooperating with me to a great extent. Bob has been researching and writing about the beginnings of the New Orleans Mint for decades. An article that he published in the 1970s was path breaking in this regard. Of course, Julian never claimed to have found all answers to pertinent questions and I never claimed that Julian did find all the answers to questions about the New Orleans Mint. At the time of the other thread to which Kevin refers, I thought it was fair to ask how a new book adds to or supplants the research and conclusions of Julian and the theory I put forth in my article. I am glad that Kevin provided additional information about his book in this thread. I hope that Kevin continues to engage in archival research and to report his findings.
Eliasberg 1838-O Half Dollar and the Controversy over its origins
Special 1839-O Liberty Seated Dime
My rejoinder regarding the wonderful replies by WinLoseWin will be composed. I thank him for a pleasant and entertaining post.