Will raw set values increase to match cost of wax?

VintagemanEd

With so many rip and submit guys out there it makes me wonder the long term
Future of a basic raw set from say 1981. If a wax box cost $225 let's say and 540 cards per box. To complete a raw set (or be close enough to fill in from set fillers) you would need 2 boxes ($450) and hopefully come up with a very nice NM-MT to Mint set. Now let's say you grade a few cards and get a couple of psa 9 star cards that are a value of say $100 then you are still in the hole in a big way. So my thought and wonder is if the price of a raw set will increase soon to shorten the cost gap here. Is the grading game keeping really nice raw set values down?

LarkinCollector

Scarcity of unopened does not equal scarcity of sets available. Sets have been much more profitable to 'rip' looking for gradeable cards than unopened for quite a while, especially late 70s-mid 80s. Using your 81T example, I can buy 5-7 'high end' sets for the price of a single wax box and have 4-5.5K 'pack/vending fresh' cards to sort for grading. Usually the key rookies are O/C, but you can find plenty of other star/semi-star/low pop commons to make it worthwhile.

LuvOldPacks

That's a good question. I'm thinking right off, that SET BUILDING and PACK RIPPING are in two entirely different categories.....obviously. The point is, I'm not so sure you can compare the increase in value on the two?! I feel unopened is KING. Packs are going to ALWAYS go up especially as supply decreases and demand increases. Again, no DUH Dude??!! We're seeing that already with the 50's, 60's and 70's product. And to my surprise, the 80's unopened is clearly making it's move as demand increases. I still find it hard to call, say, a 1981 Topps Football Wax Box, VINTAGE..... but it's now 34 years old! WHAT??!
Okay, back to your question.... with so many singles out there and so few unopened packs by comparison, I would say NO! Both will increase in value, but again, unopened is KING and ALWAYS will be.

DoctorK

Ripping wax increases unopened value and decreases card/set value by increasing population of cards and decreasing unopened inventory.

Stone193

One thing I've learned about vending, e.g.

Even if the cards are sharp as a tack, if there's OCs - it seems to affect the entire run.

If I wanted to do a set card by card, I would enjoy going to shows and selecting them one by one. Or a really nice "lot" to save money.

DanBessette

To answer the question in the thread title as simply as possible: NO.

And I think the assessment that "unopened is KING" is a wishful and highly unrealistic statement. I think the recent mega-explosion in prices of HOF RCs and other vintage HOFers proves that there remains a VERY healthy market for "opened" product as well.

SOM

Ripping wax increases unopened value and decreases card/set value by increasing population of cards and decreasing unopened inventory.

Ripping wax increases unopened value AGREED

by decreasing unopened inventory AGREED

decreases card/set value by increasing population of cards I DO NOT AGREE

Because the population of cards increased from the opened packs is full of miscut, dinged, O/C cards that would never make it into a set, or to a grading company

DanBessette

SOM is smart. No, that's not sarcasm.

DoctorK

<< <i>Ripping wax increases unopened value and decreases card/set value by increasing population of cards and decreasing unopened inventory.

Ripping wax increases unopened value AGREED

by decreasing unopened inventory AGREED

decreases card/set value by increasing population of cards I DO NOT AGREE

Because the population of cards increased from the opened packs is full of miscut, dinged, O/C cards that would never make it into a set, or to a grading company >>



That is fair. I would argue that the raw card population is increased even discounting the mc/o/c, etc. cards.

packCollector

the price of high quality 70's raw sets has increased along with wax. ripping sets to look for graded cards is a good substitute to ripping wax and can be just as fulilling as pulling the card from wax. IMO as I used to buy tons of sets to break and grade and it has become increasingly difficult in the last year

Webb63

There are plenty of high grade cards still sitting in unopened wax, cello, racks and vending. Lots of poor quality cards too, but it would be naive to think that POP's won't grow as more product is opened.

JoeBanzai

Short answer no, never.

Demand for sets is low as many enjoy the hunt of building them.

Unopened values have exploded.

When you have a decreasing supply and increasing demand as with unopened wax prices skyrocket.

Edited to add; grading is keeping the cost of all raw cards down, not just sets.

mtcards

It is a buyers market for some sets and cards. While early 80's wax has doubled,, even tripled in the past 2 years, the sets are relatively stagnant in price. Busting unopened has become basically for the grading experts/investors. Many examples of this are seen Tony Gwynn 83 Topps in PSA 8 can be had for $10....packs from that year, if you bought a box from BBCE are roughly $6-$7 per pack. Not a great return. Same for 1984 Football....Elway/Marino in PSA 8 are about $35-$40, packs from a full BBCE box would be around $20 each. Better, but not a good investment. It gets worse with the junk wax era where sets are almost unsellable

kerryville

Agree with many others its a no. Kind of like driving a new car in this situation box or case off the lot price drops right away because its now used or in this situation opened. More used cars then brand new.