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ORIGINAL MINTAGE VS. SUBMITTED COINS VS. "X"
wondercoin
Posts: 16,727 ✭✭✭✭✭
When it comes to "modern" coins (1932-date let's say for this thread), I read constantly on these boards that there was an original mintage of "so many hundreds of millions" and only "so few hundred" have ever seen PCGS's pop report. Hence, the conclusion is there will be hundreds or thousands of a certain grade a few years down the road. We just had this discussion over a 1998(p) Kennedy Half in the MS67 grade with an original mintage of less than 16 Million coins.
Yet, coins with MASSIVE mintages from 50 or 60 years ago have stayed mega-rare. I could report myriad examples, but, look no further than a 1946(p) Lincoln Cent with a reported mintage of 991,655,000. A mintage that makes any state quarter mintage look small. A mintage that makes that 1998(p) Kennedy half mintage look infinitesimal. Last I looked, they graded just a couple MS67RDs in 15 years! I sold a 1946(p) Lincoln in PCGS-MS67RD "buy it now" on ebay about 2 years ago (a forum member was the lucky winner) for less than $1000 after one of the top Lincoln cent experts in the country sold the coin for $400 out of an ad. It was priced at $400 because it was insignificant - nearly every Lincoln cent dated after 1943 in any grade was insignificant a few years ago besides variities (like the 55DD) according to the "experts". That conclusion was easily based upon the mintages for the late date wheat cents as well as the early submissions figures and projections forward. Today, imho, that 1946(p) Lincoln Cent in MS67RD could be worth upwards of $5,000 retail.
So, what of the 1946(p) cent with a near 1 BILLION mintage and now just a couple MS67RDs? Based upon the belief that one can simply divide submission rates into original mintage, there will be thousands of M67RDs graded down the road-right? This coin will be a $25 coin in the years ahead-right?
What do you think? And, no need to limit the discussion to Lincoln cents. Nearly every denomination of "modern" coin has its "1946(p) cent" type example with an massive mintage and great rarity in high grade mint state
Wondercoin
Yet, coins with MASSIVE mintages from 50 or 60 years ago have stayed mega-rare. I could report myriad examples, but, look no further than a 1946(p) Lincoln Cent with a reported mintage of 991,655,000. A mintage that makes any state quarter mintage look small. A mintage that makes that 1998(p) Kennedy half mintage look infinitesimal. Last I looked, they graded just a couple MS67RDs in 15 years! I sold a 1946(p) Lincoln in PCGS-MS67RD "buy it now" on ebay about 2 years ago (a forum member was the lucky winner) for less than $1000 after one of the top Lincoln cent experts in the country sold the coin for $400 out of an ad. It was priced at $400 because it was insignificant - nearly every Lincoln cent dated after 1943 in any grade was insignificant a few years ago besides variities (like the 55DD) according to the "experts". That conclusion was easily based upon the mintages for the late date wheat cents as well as the early submissions figures and projections forward. Today, imho, that 1946(p) Lincoln Cent in MS67RD could be worth upwards of $5,000 retail.
So, what of the 1946(p) cent with a near 1 BILLION mintage and now just a couple MS67RDs? Based upon the belief that one can simply divide submission rates into original mintage, there will be thousands of M67RDs graded down the road-right? This coin will be a $25 coin in the years ahead-right?
What do you think? And, no need to limit the discussion to Lincoln cents. Nearly every denomination of "modern" coin has its "1946(p) cent" type example with an massive mintage and great rarity in high grade mint state
Wondercoin Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
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You are the ultimite opptimist.We have seen this disscussion many times.While the pop reports show a rare coin,it is likely that in 5 years through many submissions that # will rise.The law of averages says it has to be.There are too many of them out there yet ungraded,that have the potential to reach the lofty grades.
Registry 1909-1958 Proof Lincolns
Mitch,
I would like to ask you an honest question. Do you feel these coins will hold their value only in the top grade, or also one grade lower. My reason for asking is this. The 1946 Lincoln in the July 01 pop report had:
Submitted: 194
MS65Red: 69
MS66Red: 109 (The listed in PCGS for $165)
MS67Red: 2 (You mention this may be a $5000 coin).
Ok, the 67Red seems fairly tough, but should the 66 Red really be worth $150-$200 like it is listed for and dealers are trying to sell it for (there is one about to end on ebay right now where noone has bid $185).
My point is that, fully over half sent in have been graded MS66! I realize many of these were probably picked through before submission, but getting MS66 for a 46P Lincoln looks as easy for example as a MS65 standard date Ike dollar (which can sell as low as $30 sometimes).
So, my question is that assuming pop #s go up in the same ratio, do you feel that MS67Reds will go up, and MS66Reds down, or do you think they will both go up.
BTW, thanks for pointing out this date to me. I had no idea it had any value!
JJacks
Since this thread originated discussing how second rate NGC is on modern coinage, I have a thought on that matter. I believe that NGC is doing the modern collector a huge favor by grading looser on the moderns - that's right, LOOSER!
Why a big favor? Because of PCGS artificially holding down the populations in the highest grades, prices have skyrocketed. As the NGC article from 1988 posted in another thread states, this is a bad deal for the long run - those coins really aren't that rare. By actually grading coins (and now, with the new submission fee they will grade even more) at the high levels as they consistently do, NGC will knock down those stupid prices!
I see collectors complain all the time - NGC moderns are worth a fraction of PCGS moderns. Well my thoughts are - thank goodness for NGC. By not allowing such a huge bubble by forcing huge price differentials for subjective microscopic grades, NGC is actually protecting their customers. Well done, NGC!!!!!!!!!
Does Anyone Disagree on This Statement ??
TDN,
Could it be that NGC is giving out MS67s easier then PCGS is?
I wonder how many would cross to PCGS 67s?
JJacks
JJacks: To answer your question "honestly", first, if I personally thought the 1946(p) Lincoln Cent in PCGS-MS67RD was a "$5,000 coin" or could have been in the very near future, would I have sold it "buy it now" at less than $1000! The 1946(p) Lincoln and virtually every "p" mint Lincoln cent dated 1946-1958 has greatly surprised me as well as nearly every serious Lincoln cent collector (which I am not one of them) out there. From my personal research over these past 4-5 years, I would have concluded that the coin could have been a couple thousand dollars, but not upwards of $5,000. Likewise, a coin such as the 1957(p) Lincoln with a mintage of 283,000,000 and pop -1- in MS67RD to this day is of great surprise to me. And, dissapointment as well, for I have spent the last 4-5 years trying to make a single MS67RD coin of this date (unsuccessfully). This would also be a multi-thousand dollar coin today imho.
Now, as for the MS66RD undergrade, my personal research shows the coins are "doable". I have made plenty of MS66RD 1957(p) Lincolns and my share of MS66RD 1946(p) Lincolns over the years. I have sold numerous examples of each over the years for less than $100/coin, although I would be asking a bit more now for the 1946(p), but I think the last 1957(p) Lincoln I sold last month was priced well under $100. The MS66RD grade on both these dates of Lincolns is the grade that "separates the men from the boys" in my opinion. PCGS will permit an MS66RD coin to have some flyspecks and marks, as nearly all 1946(p) and 1957(p) Lincolns have on them. But, the MS67RD grade requires a very clean coin with very, very minor flyspecking, if at all and a strong strike (including a clean and well struck planchet which these dates are notoriously lacking). So, the ability to "make" MS66RD coins of these dates on a regular basis should result in "reasonable" MS66RD price levels I believe. I do not personally foresee skyrocketing prices for the MS66RD coins, although I would happily "stock the shelves" with nice clean MS66RD 1946(p) Lincolns for my website if I could buy them around $75/coin. I hope this answered your questions.
There are at least 21 happy collectors out there with their NGC MS67 1946 cents that probably cost them a few hundred. There are two collectors out there with their PCGS MS67 cents that paid many multiples of that - who is smarter?????
IMO PCGS holdered coins ARE many times worth a premium to NGC holdered coins - it depends on the coin. IMO there are NO circumstances where the holder is worth multiples of value. A premium of 10%, 20%, even 50% I can see, but 500% to 2500% ???????????
Wondercoin,
Thanks for the reply and the honest answer, not just hype stating that the 66s will go through the roof or anything!
TDN,
I agree that NGC coins aren't necessarily graded "Wrong", but maybe they are graded by an ever so slightly different standard (maybe it is even the right standard) compared to PCGS, but given the choice, obviously just about any Lincoln collector would take the PCGS over the NGC coin if offered their choice. I often get the feeling that on the coin like a 66++++/67, NGC may grade it 67, while PCGS never will unless it is a solid 67 all the way around, maybe darn near 67.49999+++, which then makes PCGS 67s tougher and more valuable. As far as who is smarter between then buyers, I think the proper answer is the people who decided to submit those 46 Plain Lincoln cents that got 67 to PCGS instead of NGC were the really smart ones!
JJacks
Out of the 109 MS66 RD 1946 Lincolns that you were talking about you can bet that at least 20 of them were crackouts trying to get the higher grade. But even if they all do exist, ponder this:
There are only 109 coins out there...at any given time there are likely only 3 or 4 for sale. If you are a collector and you want/need one for your collection you have to be pretty luck to just stumble upon one of them. The more likely scenario is that you are going to have a dealer "find the coin for you". In that event since the dealer will probably (99% certainty) be paying FMV, the coin will always hold up in value.
As for the likelihood of more coins eventually becoming MS66 or better -- sure you may see a couple, but most of the "estates" have already been worked thru.
It is a good arguement that in modern issues you may see significant increases in POP's but when you get to coins such as those which I collect -- Standing Liberty quarters (which have been out of production for 70 years) one has to believe that 99.99% of the coins which can be certified have already been slabbed.
Next, I like Irish Mikes logical economic though processes.
Lastly, i am for a decimal system for grading coins. There are PQ coins that need to be specified by a number and not an asterisk or whatever it is like NGC. Anybody for a new and more precise grading system?
Mark
Hey, I notice Datentype has a 57P in 66RD in his ebay auctions!
It'll be interesting to see what this goes for now!
windycitytrio,
I understand what you are saying, and agree to some extent, but with the way I am, if I was really interested in having a 46-P in 66RD, instead of paying $150 to buy one, I would probably try to "make" one. You can submit 10 coins for $150, and the odds I listed on getting a 66 looks like you'd have a good shot at getting at least one if you look through some good coins to pick out the best 10. And you'd get some MS65s to boot!
JJacks
My question here is (putting the company holders aside), can "reasonable men" now agree that the 1 BILLION mintage 1946(p) Lincoln cent (and coins like it) is truly "rare" in grades MS67RD and above (and let's assume we are talking about "properly graded" coins here whatever that means) even though less than 1000 coins out of nearly 1,000,000,000 have actually been graded? Wondercoin.
you are right that $5000 may seem unreasonable but do not forget that there are a lot of people out there that want the best and only the best...even if there was a POP of 2 or 3 for the coin it would command much more than 2x the next lower grade. This pricing scenario is happening more & more frequently on coins where the POP is "none better". Perhaps it is because the baby boomers have finally matured and can afford to fill in some voids in their collections.
In a way, I think that collectors of the very top grades of coins are really coming at it with a different frame of mind. When it comes to pops of 1 or 2 it is much more like buying a 1 of kind painting than coin collecting, and the prices reflect that. The only thing that can justify that lines of thinking is if it REMAINS a 1 of a kind item. Once 3, 4, 7, etc. examples are found the illusion is broken and it comes back to being just a top graded example of a date...with a price that is in line with the other graded coins of that date. So it falls to a decission on your part of whether the population will hold.
A lot of different factors can weigh in on that decission. Mintage is one, but not the only one. What if PCGS loosens up, just a little. If they loosened up just slightly, for only a month, for whatever reason. Game over. My opinion, but I am of the belief that if the slab was removed from the equation that you would not see the price spread between these highest grade coins that we see now. And if that is the case, then the price isn't justified.
However, I do think that choice coins in MS 64-66, especially Full Steps, FB'S, Reds, and FBL's are a great long term bargain. They are priced at what the average collector can afford, and are great examples that ANYBODY would be proud to have in their collection. I believe that coins like these can weather any storms and will be the meat and potatos of coin collectors in the years to come.
Bo
I agree with you up to a point. What about coins where the POP is say 6 or 12 with none higher? They are still considered the "creme de la creme" and the collector who wants "the best" has no choice but to pay up for the coin if they want it. When a coin has a POP of 6 or 12 with none better the odds of finding one for sale at any given time are pretty small. You have to pay up to get a current owner to sell.
Bo
My dealer took his Washinton Quarters and Roosevelt dimes out of his Dansco, and they all came back 66 and 67 (granted he was very critical when he selected them for the album).
To think that few more of these type coins are out there is nuts. Do you think people have went through Lincoln cents like they have Morgan Dollars for grading? Just because they are old does not mean they were looked at closely as with Morgans. Look at the prices given for some of these in the past, no reason to send them in. Plus, as has been pointed out, many are graded just not in PCGS holders.
Rarity for high grade coins like these will be because of how they were minted. Not how they were saved, as many originals are still out there.
Plus, value is based on supply-demand! not supply. Even if thousands are made, if tens of thousands of people want them, prices will still be high. If there is 1, and only 1 person wants it, the price will be low (look at the famous 1953-S Franklin and what happened to it)
Perhaps the reason that it is easier to find original rolls of pennies is an economic one:
a roll of pennies is 50 cents... a roll of quarters is $10.00 ..........now lets pretend we are in 1950 and we need money for something/anything. It is easier to not spend that roll of pennies worth 50 cents than to not spend that roll of quarters worth $10. Dont forget, in 1950 a roll of quarters was 10% of the monthly mortgage on a small house (or at least enough to pay the utilitiy bills). As a result, the quarters got busted out of the rolls and all became the victims of circulation. Thank you dbldie55, you just made an explanation which even I can relate to!
And to add to my other thread. Since I do not have a pop report in front of me, I cannot make any assumptions. If the 46p is rare (and not a lot submitted), but the 47PDS, 46DS and 45PDS have large numbers submitted, then I would think the high end 46p's are indeed rarer. Plus, I do not know if anything from that era should be plentiful in the grade of 67 (but if there are 2, I would bet there are more).
here is the current PCGS POP data --- all are for MS67 with none graded higher:
1945-p 24, 1945-d 104, 1945-s 399
1946-p 3, 1946-d 94, 1946-s 48
1947-p 5, 1947-d 34, 1947-s 90
It would be interesting to compare these numbers to a POP report from 12 months ago.
PCGS THE ONLY WAY TO GO
Ed
45P.....22.....45D....75......45S.....238
46P....2.........46D....84......46S....37
47P.....5.........47D....15......47S....31
Revisit this in 2 Years and then Your Statement will be True if the Pop's are Still Very Low for the P Mints. Way Too Early to Tell Yet. IMHO.
PCGS THE ONLY WAY TO GO
Ed
48P....2
49P....4
50P....6
51P....2
52P....5
53P....2
54P....1
55P....7
56P....3
57P....0 is this correct 0
58P....9
63D....0
The Biggest Problem I see with these Pop's is that Very Few Coins were Submitted to Get these Populations. I still Think it is a Wait and See case on whether Pops will Explode.
Sure Glad I Do Not Collect or Sell these Coins as it Looks like the Pops could Go Either Way.
pcgs gardes it a 66
unless, you use the magic 100.00 submittal path
thats brought quite a few home
weird?...no, just another day at the slabatorium
Go BIG or GO HOME. ©Bill
Funny how that Happens with High Dollar and Low Pop Coins from PCGS.
As new collectors come on board they are acquiring coins which will in many
cases be off the market for decades. Under these conditions even common coins
could increase explosively in price. While I am in at least partial agreement that
it is wise not to pay large premiums for coins which have large populations in the
"just missed" grades, there are still many collectors who want the best, so this is
going to happen.
The 1977 quarter comes with two distinct reverses. I wasn't aware of it until 1980
by which time the evidence of the location of it's release was lost. I've searched
for an unc example of this coin for 22 years and have learned a lot about modern
coins in the process. The coin does not appear in mint sets. I've looked at enough
of these sets to have seen every die pair multiple times. It is extremely difficult to
find any BU rolls of this coin. A trip to the average 10 coin shows will yield no rolls
of this date and only a few of any of the eagle reverse rolls.(don't even look for high
grade coins). I've ordered a couple rolls every time I've seen them advertised and
I keep getting the same rolls! Apparently these coins were saved by so few that the
extant examples all come from the same couple dozen die pairs!!!! So have I found
the rare reverse quarter you may ask. No! I have an AU and a VF a few F's and a VG.
Would I pay a premium for a one grade difference- - You betcha.
WANTED A 1943 WASHINGTON (1-O-11) au or better
"Because I can"
myurl The Franklin All Old Green Holder Set
45: 13...16....45
46: 0....12....6
47: 3.....4.....7
roadrunner
roadrunner
My 2 cents:
The $5,000 price tag is "justified" (not in my mind, but to the ones buying it) by very wealthy collectors desiring the very best. It has absolutely nothing to do with whether these coins could upgrade to NGC-MS68. That thought rarely crosses the mind of the serious collectors pursuing these pieces. These collectors seldom seek out a coin like the 46(p) Lincoln as an "investment" coin. If the coin were to drop to a $2000 coin in the years ahead it would not seriously impact these collectors. Indeed, if the coin increased to $10,000, it would mean very little to these collectors I believe. The bottom line is there are a handful of serious Lincoln collectors out there that demand the very best example of each date and mintmark money can buy. Since there are (2) 1946(p) Lincolns in PCGS-MS67RD available in the entire world right now and a handful of serious Lincoln collectors, the "sky's the limit", if one of the coins came up for auction.
My "guess" of the 1946(p) Lincoln in PCGS-MS67RD being a possible $5,000 coin today could be greatly mistaken. The coin could actually be a $10,000 coin (or even a $15,000 coin!!) if the coin came up in a major auction and (2) serious collectors wanted the coin. Isn't this basically (more or less) how the 1919(d) dime in PCGS-MS66FB became a $200,000 coin one night and a $90,000 the next time it sold? Isn't this how the 1953(s) Franklin became a $69,000 coin one night and a $35,000 the next? IMHO, the 1946(p) Lincoln Cent in superb gem MS67RD is a very powerful penny, eternal optimism aside!!
45: 2...14....45
46: 0....7....5
47: 1.....1.....7
Quite the jump in those 3 months.
How about '94? People love to say these have been graded for 16 years, not many were then. (these are for April '94)
45: 0...1....13
46: 0...1......0
47: 1...0......3
The numbers have been, and probably still be, rising every year. I do agree that the P mints are not growing much. Probably something else leading to poorer coins, and that trend should continue.
I would still probably part with a dollar for one.
"On your post about the 1946 in MS67RD...I think of it this way:
Out of a mintage of 991,655,000 if one in a thousand is preserved in original mint bags and rolls that leaves 991,655 preserved. Now if you assume that in a bag (5,000) of these you can make 7 MS66RD or better (quality on these is horrid I have heard) that gives you 1388 coins TOTAL of MS66RD or better quality. Considering the pop report ration between 66 and 67 is 151:3 and taking off 20 MS66RDs for resubs, by my math that would leave only 32 coins total that are still "PCGS MS67RD Quality". How many of those 32 coins will ever be in PCGS slabs? A truly rare coin in that condition considering the demand from the Lincoln collector base along with the small number (minus the ones of this quality that don't make it into PCGS slabs) of certified coins. "
Well done!!