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Comfortable with gold and oil

JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
Buying oil here. Maybe a little early.

I continue to think the bottom in gold is in after it held 1080.

Mark
Walker Proof Digital Album
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
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Comments

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,118 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Hope I'm wrong, but I do expect commodities, including PMs to get hammered a bit more.

    The decline from democracy to tyranny is both a natural and inevitable one.

  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It wouldn't surprise me to see China intervene over the weekend with policy change.

    Oil will be a long term play for me and not a trade.

    mark
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • OperationButterOperationButter Posts: 1,672 ✭✭✭
    I think now is a good entry for a long term oil trade.
    Gold is for savings. Fiat is for transactions.



    BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
  • gsa1fangsa1fan Posts: 5,566 ✭✭✭
    3 oz AGE today. Floor was empty of AGE's bullion. BRNA in Dalton, Ga. Those high reliefs looked like a Sacajawea to me. Gold content is my only attraction. Some looked plain/flat relief to me.
    Avid collector of GSA's.
  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭


    << <i>I think now is a good entry for a long term oil trade. >>


    A new low, especially a monthly one, is no way... Is there a particular reason to fight the obvious trend?...
    Look for low stoch on daily, weekly and monthly, and monthly low again on rsi, this sucker breaking lower on this ...
    keceph `anah
  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>I think now is a good entry for a long term oil trade. >>


    A new low, especially a monthly one, is no way... Is there a particular reason to fight the obvious trend?...
    Look for low stoch on daily, weekly and monthly, and monthly low again on rsi, this sucker breaking lower on this ... >>



    Maybe. In my experience contango trumps everything else. Anyways oil can't go to zero. Building a position here seems reasonable.

    There is so much negativity on the oil trade which makes me even more convicted. Won't take much to push sellers into being buyers.

    Mark
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • gsa1fangsa1fan Posts: 5,566 ✭✭✭
    $2.12 a gallon fill up today. I like low oilimage
    Avid collector of GSA's.
  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭


    << <i>$2.12 a gallon fill up today. I like low oilimage >>


    That's great price and it still should be lower, the taxes are bull...
    Gas should be like 1.75 or lower... In every state...
    keceph `anah
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,553 ✭✭✭✭✭
    So how you playing for long term? Large integrated? Exploration? MLP? Refiners? USO? Futures? ETFs?
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • OperationButterOperationButter Posts: 1,672 ✭✭✭


    << <i>So how you playing for long term? Large integrated? Exploration? MLP? Refiners? USO? Futures? ETFs? >>



    Not sure if directed at me but I'll answer for fun.

    Conservative would be building position in the King of Oil, XOM. Dividend is secure by FCF for at least 3 years compared to many other majors that might have to cut dividends by mid 2016 if oil is sub $50. CVX is another but with high capex planned until 2017, dividend cut might happen even though it is against mgmt plan to remain an aristocrat.

    Aggressive would be in drilling contractors that have secured their cash flow by longer term contracts with majors like XOM and CVX. Company like RIG would fall into this category. High dividend that is safe in the short term but if oil remains low for more than 18-24 months could have their FCF come under pressure and dividend cuts would be necessary to start afloat.
    Gold is for savings. Fiat is for transactions.



    BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,553 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Meant to ask MJ, but I appreciate the reply. I have lots of thoughts on this group as ive been looking for ideas in all groups I mentioned, but for a yield play why not just look at a telecom like T, VZ or VOD?
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • OperationButterOperationButter Posts: 1,672 ✭✭✭
    Wasnt just a yield play even though I highly value dividends when analyzing companies. Companies like RIG, at first glance, are trading at 20 year lows which could provide a nice total return if oil rebounds in the short term. XOM is over a 4% yield which is nice, but thats part of the story. XOM is down roughly 30% in the past 6-12 months and could also provide a nice return if oil prices regain some lost territory.

    Where are you looking in oil right now?
    Gold is for savings. Fiat is for transactions.



    BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Meant to ask MJ, but I appreciate the reply. I have lots of thoughts on this group as ive been looking for ideas in all groups I mentioned, but for a yield play why not just look at a telecom like T, VZ or VOD? >>



    Physical, refiners, explorer,s drillers

    WTI crude
    XOM
    OXY
    MRO
    DO
    NE

    mark
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,553 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Thats a nice group. What if oil is still $60 in 3 years? How do you think those holdings will perform?
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,553 ✭✭✭✭✭
    How many of these companies will succumb to high debt loads?
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear



  • << <i>

    << <i>$2.12 a gallon fill up today. I like low oilimage >>


    That's great price and it still should be lower, the taxes are bull...
    Gas should be like 1.75 or lower... In every state... >>



    Not only taxes, but something funny is going on. Compared to 2008, gas should be well below $2 in the US
    PCGS
  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>$2.12 a gallon fill up today. I like low oilimage >>


    That's great price and it still should be lower, the taxes are bull...
    Gas should be like 1.75 or lower... In every state... >>



    Not only taxes, but something funny is going on. Compared to 2008, gas should be well below $2 in the US >>



    Midwest Refinery issues and peak summer driving

    mark
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Thats a nice group. What if oil is still $60 in 3 years? How do you think those holdings will perform? >>



    I think they will outperform the market if this happens. Add MWE to the energy group. This I've own forever and it's been like an ATM.

    mark
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,305 ✭✭✭✭✭
    ConocoPhillips cut back their capital spending budget by 20% just a month or two ago. There's a reason for that. I think we might be about 2 years early on oil companies, unless things get ugly.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>ConocoPhillips cut back their capital spending budget by 20% just a month or two ago. There's a reason for that. I think we might be about 2 years early on oil companies, unless things get ugly. >>



    This company has debt concerns that I'm not comfortable with. 20% cap ex cut may not be enough

    Mark
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,553 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>$2.12 a gallon fill up today. I like low oilimage >>


    That's great price and it still should be lower, the taxes are bull...
    Gas should be like 1.75 or lower... In every state... >>



    Not only taxes, but something funny is going on. Compared to 2008, gas should be well below $2 in the US >>



    In 2008 the economy was a mess and demand for distillates was weak and uncertain, hence low gasoline. That is not the case today.

    A year ago folks complained about $4 gas, now they complain about $2 gas. Comical.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,553 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Warren buffet sold all his XOM a while ago. I wonder why? image
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,658 ✭✭✭✭✭
    A year ago folks complained, now they complain. Comical.

    fixed it for you.

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • OperationButterOperationButter Posts: 1,672 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>$2.12 a gallon fill up today. I like low oilimage >>


    That's great price and it still should be lower, the taxes are bull...
    Gas should be like 1.75 or lower... In every state... >>



    Not only taxes, but something funny is going on. Compared to 2008, gas should be well below $2 in the US >>



    In 2008 the economy was a mess and demand for distillates was weak and uncertain, hence low gasoline. That is not the case today.

    A year ago folks complained about $4 gas, now they complain about $2 gas. Comical. >>



    Im still waiting for sub $3 per gal gas. San Diego is still $3.6 + image
    Gold is for savings. Fiat is for transactions.



    BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,118 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Im still waiting for sub $3 per gal gas. San Diego is still $3.6 + image >>


    CA has a higher standard of living. image

    The decline from democracy to tyranny is both a natural and inevitable one.

  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Warren buffet sold all his XOM a while ago. I wonder why? image >>



    Good. I'm guess I'm covered. I own some BRK. Hopefully he sold high. It's no longer high.

    You should ask him if you're concerned.

    Mark

    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,658 ✭✭✭✭✭
    CA has a higher standard of living.

    Fixed it for you.

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>$2.12 a gallon fill up today. I like low oilimage >>


    That's great price and it still should be lower, the taxes are bull...
    Gas should be like 1.75 or lower... In every state... >>



    Not only taxes, but something funny is going on. Compared to 2008, gas should be well below $2 in the US >>



    In 2008 the economy was a mess and demand for distillates was weak and uncertain, hence low gasoline. That is not the case today.

    A year ago folks complained about $4 gas, now they complain about $2 gas. Comical. >>


    In so cal it's still $3-$4...
    keceph `anah
  • PerryHallPerryHall Posts: 45,301 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Much of the differences in regional gas prices is due to different tax rates.

    Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,553 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Warren buffet sold all his XOM a while ago. I wonder why? image >>



    Good. I'm guess I'm covered. I own some BRK. Hopefully he sold high. It's no longer high.

    You should ask him if you're concerned.

    Mark >>




    Buffet is a long term investor. He usually rides out the volatility, so for him to have completely abandoned the position probably means he sees better long term opportunities.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 43,796 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I need a little virgin olive oil for my wheat cents. And you guys know I'm pretty comfortable with my brown wheaties. . image
  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 30,977 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Much of the differences in regional gas prices is due to different tax rates. >>



    Look for low gasoline prices as an opportunity for some states to raise taxes on same.
  • PerryHallPerryHall Posts: 45,301 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Much of the differences in regional gas prices is due to different tax rates. >>



    Look for low gasoline prices as an opportunity for some states to raise taxes on same. >>



    Yup. As long as the tax increase is equal to or less than the fall in the price of gas most people won't notice.

    Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.

  • bidaskbidask Posts: 13,834 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>Warren buffet sold all his XOM a while ago. I wonder why? image >>



    Good. I'm guess I'm covered. I own some BRK. Hopefully he sold high. It's no longer high.

    You should ask him if you're concerned.

    Mark >>




    Buffet is a long term investor. He usually rides out the volatility, so for him to have completely abandoned the position probably means he sees better long term opportunities. >>



    Like IBM....image
    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>Warren buffet sold all his XOM a while ago. I wonder why? image >>



    Good. I'm guess I'm covered. I own some BRK. Hopefully he sold high. It's no longer high.

    You should ask him if you're concerned.

    Mark >>




    Buffet is a long term investor. He usually rides out the volatility, so for him to have completely abandoned the position probably means he sees better long term opportunities. >>



    Was there actually violatlity when he sold? There hasn't been much volatility in the market for quite awhile before last week. It's not like he just sold.

    If its your MO to subscribe to everything he does then just follow him in lock step and buy BRK and be done with it. You can find virtually find a naysayer on everything if you look hard enough.

    mark

    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,658 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I may never invest in Oil again

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,553 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>Warren buffet sold all his XOM a while ago. I wonder why? image >>



    Good. I'm guess I'm covered. I own some BRK. Hopefully he sold high. It's no longer high.

    You should ask him if you're concerned.

    Mark >>




    Buffet is a long term investor. He usually rides out the volatility, so for him to have completely abandoned the position probably means he sees better long term opportunities. >>



    Was there actually violatlity when he sold? There hasn't been much volatility in the market for quite awhile before last week. It's not like he just sold.

    If its your MO to subscribe to everything he does then just follow him in lock step and buy BRK and be done with it. You can find virtually find a naysayer on everything if you look hard enough.

    mark >>




    Wow, are you off based. I don't follow Buffet, and i believe you know i follow no one, but others do. And I believe you will agree that his long term investment strategy has treated him well. I'm merely stating that a long term investor completely abandoned his position in what may be the best of the best in its industry. My point is that he obviously saw no more opportunity in a long term hold of this position.

    My thoughts on oil are well documented on this forum although I do see an opportunity to increase my "stack" with a name you have mentioned. Best of luck to us both.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>Warren buffet sold all his XOM a while ago. I wonder why? image >>



    Good. I'm guess I'm covered. I own some BRK. Hopefully he sold high. It's no longer high.

    You should ask him if you're concerned.

    Mark >>




    Buffet is a long term investor. He usually rides out the volatility, so for him to have completely abandoned the position probably means he sees better long term opportunities. >>



    Was there actually violatlity when he sold? There hasn't been much volatility in the market for quite awhile before last week. It's not like he just sold.

    If its your MO to subscribe to everything he does then just follow him in lock step and buy BRK and be done with it. You can find virtually find a naysayer on everything if you look hard enough.

    mark >>




    Wow, are you off based. I don't follow Buffet, and i believe you know i follow no one, but others do. And I believe you will agree that his long term investment strategy has treated him well. I'm merely stating that a long term investor completely abandoned his position in what may be the best of the best in its industry. My point is that he obviously saw no more opportunity in a long term hold of this position.

    My thoughts on oil are well documented on this forum although I do see an opportunity to increase my "stack" with a name you have mentioned. Best of luck to us both. >>



    Not off based at all. Just responding to your posts.

    Let me know what you do as I'm always interested. At the end of the day we all pull our own trigger.

    Mark
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • bidaskbidask Posts: 13,834 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>Warren buffet sold all his XOM a while ago. I wonder why? image >>



    Good. I'm guess I'm covered. I own some BRK. Hopefully he sold high. It's no longer high.

    You should ask him if you're concerned.

    Mark >>




    Buffet is a long term investor. He usually rides out the volatility, so for him to have completely abandoned the position probably means he sees better long term opportunities. >>



    Was there actually violatlity when he sold? There hasn't been much volatility in the market for quite awhile before last week. It's not like he just sold.

    If its your MO to subscribe to everything he does then just follow him in lock step and buy BRK and be done with it. You can find virtually find a naysayer on everything if you look hard enough.

    mark >>




    Wow, are you off based. I don't follow Buffet, and i believe you know i follow no one, but others do. And I believe you will agree that his long term investment strategy has treated him well. I'm merely stating that a long term investor completely abandoned his position in what may be the best of the best in its industry. My point is that he obviously saw no more opportunity in a long term hold of this position.

    My thoughts on oil are well documented on this forum although I do see an opportunity to increase my "stack" with a name you have mentioned. Best of luck to us both. >>



    Sure you follow other people !

    You read other people's opinions and views, yes ?
    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,118 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I suspect a black swan will be required for any sudden, rewarding moves in the price of oil. Otherwise I see oil suffering the same drawn out carnage that PMs went through. Worldwide investors will shortly be (if not already) looking for new safe haven as financial markets continue to experience turmoil. While the US$ will continue to provide some protection, where they find new comfort remains to be seen. Once the safety in US investments is questioned on a larger scale, not much left to run to except PMs. For this reason I'm preferring metals over oil.

    As the markets of all types continue to crumble the moment of truth for metals has arrived.

    The decline from democracy to tyranny is both a natural and inevitable one.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,553 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Are you now abandoning your call for $100 oil in 3 years?
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,118 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Are you now abandoning your call for $100 oil in 3 years? >>


    nope, If you will recall I said $100 oil will happen by 4/1/18 because of inflation, not because of supply and demand changes. Inflation always strikes hardest after a serious bout of deflation.

    The decline from democracy to tyranny is both a natural and inevitable one.

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Warren buffet sold all his XOM a while ago. I wonder why? image >>



    Probably the same reason he sold his 130 MILL oz/10 year accumulation of physical silver by early 2006....long before realizing the huge profits that were in store. Guess he doesn't know markets better than anyone else....especially commodities. image

    And to compare him as a successful "long term investor" against the average Joe Investor considering all his Wallstreet, banker, and Washington, D.C. connections, is about as apples to oranges as it gets.

    I'm with Derryb that commodities will probably get hammered a bit longer. For now I'm watching the comparisons to Oct 2008 - March 2009 when gold led most commodities by 1-6 months as the commodity sector bottomed. It may only be a temporary head fake. For now, all options on the table. Unlike November 2008, the SM had already been in decline for a year. That's not the case this time. Then again, the FED wasn't pumping QE 1,2,3 into the stock market from Nov 2007 - March 2009 either.
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,658 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Are you now abandoning your call for $100 oil in 3 years? >>


    nope, If you will recall I said $100 oil will happen by 4/1/18 because of inflation, not because of supply and demand changes. Inflation always strikes hardest after a serious bout of deflation. >>



    So, trying to follow the logic here, do you expect the prices of everything else, in addition to oil, to double in that time frame, because of inflation?

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,658 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Because, that's a tricky kind of inflation, the kind that's selective and makes some things go up in price and other things go down.

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Looks like I'll be able to sort through some rubble this morning and pick up some of those aforementioned oil names ( bought some XOM on Friday) Will have to do it holding my nose. This is going to be a fun day

    mark
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • metalmeistermetalmeister Posts: 4,584 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I am adding XLE to my Roth and IRA accounts
    email: ccacollectibles@yahoo.com

    100% Positive BST transactions
  • OperationButterOperationButter Posts: 1,672 ✭✭✭
    Hope you got in on XOM at 66.
    Gold is for savings. Fiat is for transactions.



    BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Hope you got in on XOM at 66. >>



    Not quite but with Friday's buy I'm averaged in at $70.17

    mark
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>Warren buffet sold all his XOM a while ago. I wonder why? image >>



    Good. I'm guess I'm covered. I own some BRK. Hopefully he sold high. It's no longer high.

    You should ask him if you're concerned.

    Mark >>




    Buffet is a long term investor. He usually rides out the volatility, so for him to have completely abandoned the position probably means he sees better long term opportunities. >>



    Looks like he still loves the industry buy just changed horses. 4.5 billion dollar stake in COP ( Phillips 66)

    M
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
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