Comfortable with gold and oil

Justacommeman

Buying oil here. Maybe a little early.

I continue to think the bottom in gold is in after it held 1080.

Mark

derryb

Hope I'm wrong, but I do expect commodities, including PMs to get hammered a bit more.

Justacommeman

It wouldn't surprise me to see China intervene over the weekend with policy change.

Oil will be a long term play for me and not a trade.

mark

OperationButter

I think now is a good entry for a long term oil trade.

gsa1fan

3 oz AGE today. Floor was empty of AGE's bullion. BRNA in Dalton, Ga. Those high reliefs looked like a Sacajawea to me. Gold content is my only attraction. Some looked plain/flat relief to me.

rawteam1

<< <i>I think now is a good entry for a long term oil trade. >>


A new low, especially a monthly one, is no way... Is there a particular reason to fight the obvious trend?...
Look for low stoch on daily, weekly and monthly, and monthly low again on rsi, this sucker breaking lower on this ...

Justacommeman

<< <i>

<< <i>I think now is a good entry for a long term oil trade. >>


A new low, especially a monthly one, is no way... Is there a particular reason to fight the obvious trend?...
Look for low stoch on daily, weekly and monthly, and monthly low again on rsi, this sucker breaking lower on this ... >>



Maybe. In my experience contango trumps everything else. Anyways oil can't go to zero. Building a position here seems reasonable.

There is so much negativity on the oil trade which makes me even more convicted. Won't take much to push sellers into being buyers.

Mark

gsa1fan

$2.12 a gallon fill up today. I like low oil

rawteam1

<< <i>$2.12 a gallon fill up today. I like low oil >>


That's great price and it still should be lower, the taxes are bull...
Gas should be like 1.75 or lower... In every state...

cohodk

So how you playing for long term? Large integrated? Exploration? MLP? Refiners? USO? Futures? ETFs?

OperationButter

<< <i>So how you playing for long term? Large integrated? Exploration? MLP? Refiners? USO? Futures? ETFs? >>



Not sure if directed at me but I'll answer for fun.

Conservative would be building position in the King of Oil, XOM. Dividend is secure by FCF for at least 3 years compared to many other majors that might have to cut dividends by mid 2016 if oil is sub $50. CVX is another but with high capex planned until 2017, dividend cut might happen even though it is against mgmt plan to remain an aristocrat.

Aggressive would be in drilling contractors that have secured their cash flow by longer term contracts with majors like XOM and CVX. Company like RIG would fall into this category. High dividend that is safe in the short term but if oil remains low for more than 18-24 months could have their FCF come under pressure and dividend cuts would be necessary to start afloat.

cohodk

Meant to ask MJ, but I appreciate the reply. I have lots of thoughts on this group as ive been looking for ideas in all groups I mentioned, but for a yield play why not just look at a telecom like T, VZ or VOD?

OperationButter

Wasnt just a yield play even though I highly value dividends when analyzing companies. Companies like RIG, at first glance, are trading at 20 year lows which could provide a nice total return if oil rebounds in the short term. XOM is over a 4% yield which is nice, but thats part of the story. XOM is down roughly 30% in the past 6-12 months and could also provide a nice return if oil prices regain some lost territory.

Where are you looking in oil right now?

Justacommeman

<< <i>Meant to ask MJ, but I appreciate the reply. I have lots of thoughts on this group as ive been looking for ideas in all groups I mentioned, but for a yield play why not just look at a telecom like T, VZ or VOD? >>



Physical, refiners, explorer,s drillers

WTI crude
XOM
OXY
MRO
DO
NE

mark

cohodk

Thats a nice group. What if oil is still $60 in 3 years? How do you think those holdings will perform?

cohodk

How many of these companies will succumb to high debt loads?

KennyBerger

<< <i>

<< <i>$2.12 a gallon fill up today. I like low oil >>


That's great price and it still should be lower, the taxes are bull...
Gas should be like 1.75 or lower... In every state... >>



Not only taxes, but something funny is going on. Compared to 2008, gas should be well below $2 in the US

Justacommeman

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>$2.12 a gallon fill up today. I like low oil >>


That's great price and it still should be lower, the taxes are bull...
Gas should be like 1.75 or lower... In every state... >>



Not only taxes, but something funny is going on. Compared to 2008, gas should be well below $2 in the US >>



Midwest Refinery issues and peak summer driving

mark

Justacommeman

<< <i>Thats a nice group. What if oil is still $60 in 3 years? How do you think those holdings will perform? >>



I think they will outperform the market if this happens. Add MWE to the energy group. This I've own forever and it's been like an ATM.

mark

jmski52

ConocoPhillips cut back their capital spending budget by 20% just a month or two ago. There's a reason for that. I think we might be about 2 years early on oil companies, unless things get ugly.

Justacommeman

<< <i>ConocoPhillips cut back their capital spending budget by 20% just a month or two ago. There's a reason for that. I think we might be about 2 years early on oil companies, unless things get ugly. >>



This company has debt concerns that I'm not comfortable with. 20% cap ex cut may not be enough

Mark

cohodk

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>$2.12 a gallon fill up today. I like low oil >>


That's great price and it still should be lower, the taxes are bull...
Gas should be like 1.75 or lower... In every state... >>



Not only taxes, but something funny is going on. Compared to 2008, gas should be well below $2 in the US >>



In 2008 the economy was a mess and demand for distillates was weak and uncertain, hence low gasoline. That is not the case today.

A year ago folks complained about $4 gas, now they complain about $2 gas. Comical.

cohodk

Warren buffet sold all his XOM a while ago. I wonder why?

Baley

A year ago folks complained, now they complain. Comical.

fixed it for you.

OperationButter

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>$2.12 a gallon fill up today. I like low oil >>


That's great price and it still should be lower, the taxes are bull...
Gas should be like 1.75 or lower... In every state... >>



Not only taxes, but something funny is going on. Compared to 2008, gas should be well below $2 in the US >>



In 2008 the economy was a mess and demand for distillates was weak and uncertain, hence low gasoline. That is not the case today.

A year ago folks complained about $4 gas, now they complain about $2 gas. Comical. >>



Im still waiting for sub $3 per gal gas. San Diego is still $3.6 +

derryb

<< <i>Im still waiting for sub $3 per gal gas. San Diego is still $3.6 + >>


CA has a higher standard of living.

Justacommeman

<< <i>Warren buffet sold all his XOM a while ago. I wonder why? >>



Good. I'm guess I'm covered. I own some BRK. Hopefully he sold high. It's no longer high.

You should ask him if you're concerned.

Mark

Baley

CA has a higher standard of living.

Fixed it for you.

rawteam1

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>$2.12 a gallon fill up today. I like low oil >>


That's great price and it still should be lower, the taxes are bull...
Gas should be like 1.75 or lower... In every state... >>



Not only taxes, but something funny is going on. Compared to 2008, gas should be well below $2 in the US >>



In 2008 the economy was a mess and demand for distillates was weak and uncertain, hence low gasoline. That is not the case today.

A year ago folks complained about $4 gas, now they complain about $2 gas. Comical. >>


In so cal it's still $3-$4...

PerryHall

Much of the differences in regional gas prices is due to different tax rates.

cohodk

<< <i>

<< <i>Warren buffet sold all his XOM a while ago. I wonder why? >>



Good. I'm guess I'm covered. I own some BRK. Hopefully he sold high. It's no longer high.

You should ask him if you're concerned.

Mark >>




Buffet is a long term investor. He usually rides out the volatility, so for him to have completely abandoned the position probably means he sees better long term opportunities.

TwoSides2aCoin

I need a little virgin olive oil for my wheat cents. And you guys know I'm pretty comfortable with my brown wheaties. .

BAJJERFAN

<< <i>Much of the differences in regional gas prices is due to different tax rates. >>



Look for low gasoline prices as an opportunity for some states to raise taxes on same.

PerryHall

<< <i>

<< <i>Much of the differences in regional gas prices is due to different tax rates. >>



Look for low gasoline prices as an opportunity for some states to raise taxes on same. >>



Yup. As long as the tax increase is equal to or less than the fall in the price of gas most people won't notice.

bidask

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>Warren buffet sold all his XOM a while ago. I wonder why? >>



Good. I'm guess I'm covered. I own some BRK. Hopefully he sold high. It's no longer high.

You should ask him if you're concerned.

Mark >>




Buffet is a long term investor. He usually rides out the volatility, so for him to have completely abandoned the position probably means he sees better long term opportunities. >>



Like IBM....

Justacommeman

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>Warren buffet sold all his XOM a while ago. I wonder why? >>



Good. I'm guess I'm covered. I own some BRK. Hopefully he sold high. It's no longer high.

You should ask him if you're concerned.

Mark >>




Buffet is a long term investor. He usually rides out the volatility, so for him to have completely abandoned the position probably means he sees better long term opportunities. >>



Was there actually violatlity when he sold? There hasn't been much volatility in the market for quite awhile before last week. It's not like he just sold.

If its your MO to subscribe to everything he does then just follow him in lock step and buy BRK and be done with it. You can find virtually find a naysayer on everything if you look hard enough.

mark

Baley

I may never invest in Oil again

cohodk

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>Warren buffet sold all his XOM a while ago. I wonder why? >>



Good. I'm guess I'm covered. I own some BRK. Hopefully he sold high. It's no longer high.

You should ask him if you're concerned.

Mark >>




Buffet is a long term investor. He usually rides out the volatility, so for him to have completely abandoned the position probably means he sees better long term opportunities. >>



Was there actually violatlity when he sold? There hasn't been much volatility in the market for quite awhile before last week. It's not like he just sold.

If its your MO to subscribe to everything he does then just follow him in lock step and buy BRK and be done with it. You can find virtually find a naysayer on everything if you look hard enough.

mark >>




Wow, are you off based. I don't follow Buffet, and i believe you know i follow no one, but others do. And I believe you will agree that his long term investment strategy has treated him well. I'm merely stating that a long term investor completely abandoned his position in what may be the best of the best in its industry. My point is that he obviously saw no more opportunity in a long term hold of this position.

My thoughts on oil are well documented on this forum although I do see an opportunity to increase my "stack" with a name you have mentioned. Best of luck to us both.

Justacommeman

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>Warren buffet sold all his XOM a while ago. I wonder why? >>



Good. I'm guess I'm covered. I own some BRK. Hopefully he sold high. It's no longer high.

You should ask him if you're concerned.

Mark >>




Buffet is a long term investor. He usually rides out the volatility, so for him to have completely abandoned the position probably means he sees better long term opportunities. >>



Was there actually violatlity when he sold? There hasn't been much volatility in the market for quite awhile before last week. It's not like he just sold.

If its your MO to subscribe to everything he does then just follow him in lock step and buy BRK and be done with it. You can find virtually find a naysayer on everything if you look hard enough.

mark >>




Wow, are you off based. I don't follow Buffet, and i believe you know i follow no one, but others do. And I believe you will agree that his long term investment strategy has treated him well. I'm merely stating that a long term investor completely abandoned his position in what may be the best of the best in its industry. My point is that he obviously saw no more opportunity in a long term hold of this position.

My thoughts on oil are well documented on this forum although I do see an opportunity to increase my "stack" with a name you have mentioned. Best of luck to us both. >>



Not off based at all. Just responding to your posts.

Let me know what you do as I'm always interested. At the end of the day we all pull our own trigger.

Mark

bidask

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>Warren buffet sold all his XOM a while ago. I wonder why? >>



Good. I'm guess I'm covered. I own some BRK. Hopefully he sold high. It's no longer high.

You should ask him if you're concerned.

Mark >>




Buffet is a long term investor. He usually rides out the volatility, so for him to have completely abandoned the position probably means he sees better long term opportunities. >>



Was there actually violatlity when he sold? There hasn't been much volatility in the market for quite awhile before last week. It's not like he just sold.

If its your MO to subscribe to everything he does then just follow him in lock step and buy BRK and be done with it. You can find virtually find a naysayer on everything if you look hard enough.

mark >>




Wow, are you off based. I don't follow Buffet, and i believe you know i follow no one, but others do. And I believe you will agree that his long term investment strategy has treated him well. I'm merely stating that a long term investor completely abandoned his position in what may be the best of the best in its industry. My point is that he obviously saw no more opportunity in a long term hold of this position.

My thoughts on oil are well documented on this forum although I do see an opportunity to increase my "stack" with a name you have mentioned. Best of luck to us both. >>



Sure you follow other people !

You read other people's opinions and views, yes ?

derryb

I suspect a black swan will be required for any sudden, rewarding moves in the price of oil. Otherwise I see oil suffering the same drawn out carnage that PMs went through. Worldwide investors will shortly be (if not already) looking for new safe haven as financial markets continue to experience turmoil. While the US$ will continue to provide some protection, where they find new comfort remains to be seen. Once the safety in US investments is questioned on a larger scale, not much left to run to except PMs. For this reason I'm preferring metals over oil.

As the markets of all types continue to crumble the moment of truth for metals has arrived.

cohodk

Are you now abandoning your call for $100 oil in 3 years?

derryb

<< <i>Are you now abandoning your call for $100 oil in 3 years? >>


nope, If you will recall I said $100 oil will happen by 4/1/18 because of inflation, not because of supply and demand changes. Inflation always strikes hardest after a serious bout of deflation.

roadrunner

<< <i>Warren buffet sold all his XOM a while ago. I wonder why? >>



Probably the same reason he sold his 130 MILL oz/10 year accumulation of physical silver by early 2006....long before realizing the huge profits that were in store. Guess he doesn't know markets better than anyone else....especially commodities.

And to compare him as a successful "long term investor" against the average Joe Investor considering all his Wallstreet, banker, and Washington, D.C. connections, is about as apples to oranges as it gets.

I'm with Derryb that commodities will probably get hammered a bit longer. For now I'm watching the comparisons to Oct 2008 - March 2009 when gold led most commodities by 1-6 months as the commodity sector bottomed. It may only be a temporary head fake. For now, all options on the table. Unlike November 2008, the SM had already been in decline for a year. That's not the case this time. Then again, the FED wasn't pumping QE 1,2,3 into the stock market from Nov 2007 - March 2009 either.

Baley

<< <i>

<< <i>Are you now abandoning your call for $100 oil in 3 years? >>


nope, If you will recall I said $100 oil will happen by 4/1/18 because of inflation, not because of supply and demand changes. Inflation always strikes hardest after a serious bout of deflation. >>



So, trying to follow the logic here, do you expect the prices of everything else, in addition to oil, to double in that time frame, because of inflation?

Baley

Because, that's a tricky kind of inflation, the kind that's selective and makes some things go up in price and other things go down.

Justacommeman

Looks like I'll be able to sort through some rubble this morning and pick up some of those aforementioned oil names ( bought some XOM on Friday) Will have to do it holding my nose. This is going to be a fun day

mark

metalmeister

I am adding XLE to my Roth and IRA accounts

OperationButter

Hope you got in on XOM at 66.

Justacommeman

<< <i>Hope you got in on XOM at 66. >>



Not quite but with Friday's buy I'm averaged in at $70.17

mark

Justacommeman

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>Warren buffet sold all his XOM a while ago. I wonder why? >>



Good. I'm guess I'm covered. I own some BRK. Hopefully he sold high. It's no longer high.

You should ask him if you're concerned.

Mark >>




Buffet is a long term investor. He usually rides out the volatility, so for him to have completely abandoned the position probably means he sees better long term opportunities. >>



Looks like he still loves the industry buy just changed horses. 4.5 billion dollar stake in COP ( Phillips 66)

M