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can anyone make a compelling argument....
begsu1013
Posts: 1,943 ✭✭
that now is NOT the right time to sell?
other than time value of money and/or items that are near and dear to your heart.
there's record pricing on the 52 mantle 8, we've got wsj articles popping up, even joe o.'s forward in smr last month was dedicated to prices lately.
prices ARE pretty good and thus seeing a lot of high dollar items listed for crazy asking prices....
ie that opc yount at $50k, there was a 52 mantle 8oc listed recently asking $125,000.
and it's not just indicative to high dollar items. even the 88 pippen 10 has shot from $200 to $2+K almost seemingly overnight.
not sure if it's a bubble, but some of these "crazy" asking prices automatically make me go "ehh". argument
and could easily awaken the consumers to realize we might be in lah-lah land...
so, if ya have dups, items that you've moved on from, etc....
is there any real reason not to sell right now?
edit: market is pretty d@mn strong right now, can it really get better?
other than time value of money and/or items that are near and dear to your heart.
there's record pricing on the 52 mantle 8, we've got wsj articles popping up, even joe o.'s forward in smr last month was dedicated to prices lately.
prices ARE pretty good and thus seeing a lot of high dollar items listed for crazy asking prices....
ie that opc yount at $50k, there was a 52 mantle 8oc listed recently asking $125,000.
and it's not just indicative to high dollar items. even the 88 pippen 10 has shot from $200 to $2+K almost seemingly overnight.
not sure if it's a bubble, but some of these "crazy" asking prices automatically make me go "ehh". argument
and could easily awaken the consumers to realize we might be in lah-lah land...
so, if ya have dups, items that you've moved on from, etc....
is there any real reason not to sell right now?
edit: market is pretty d@mn strong right now, can it really get better?
0
Comments
I disagree. It will just get stronger.
<< <i>I wouldn't sell unless I needed the cash. >>
if this wasn't the card market, something that tugs on the sentimental heart strings...
wouldn't it be the wise thing to follow an exit strategy that returns 100% - 1000% in mere months?
again, not talking childhood cards, your landed white whales or anything of that nature.
i'm honestly on the fence. while over the course of time and w/ inflation, naturally prices will go up...
but how much higher and faster can this roller coaster go?
<< <i>
<< <i>I wouldn't sell unless I needed the cash. >>
if this wasn't the card market, something that tugs on the sentimental heart strings...
wouldn't it be the wise thing to follow an exit strategy that returns 100% - 1000% in mere months?
again, not talking childhood cards, your landed white whales or anything of that nature.
i'm honestly on the fence. while over the course of time and w/ inflation, naturally prices will go up...
but how much higher and faster can this roller coaster go? >>
When the easy money disappears, the card market is going to take a hit. It's just a matter of time. I sure wouldn't want to have record money tied up in anything when that happens. Greed can often cloud good decision making.
<< <i>
<< <i>I wouldn't sell unless I needed the cash. >>
if this wasn't the card market, something that tugs on the sentimental heart strings...
wouldn't it be the wise thing to follow an exit strategy that returns 100% - 1000% in mere months?
again, not talking childhood cards, your landed white whales or anything of that nature.
i'm honestly on the fence. while over the course of time and w/ inflation, naturally prices will go up...
but how much higher and faster can this roller coaster go? >>
I guess if people don't have a lot in the cards then it's a good time to sell. I thought I'd be a 50 to 60 year old man when a Gretzky Topps PSA 9 would hit the 10k mark. Just a few years ago that was a $1200 to $1500 card and available regularly. That's about a 6x return. I don't think the same card will get that kind of return a few years from now from the 10k mark but I can certainly see it in the $16k range.
And, while there is no doubt cards are selling for more today than just a few years ago, the card market can be so easily manipulated. All it takes is one consignor to "auction" of some of their personal collection under several eBay names to give their business the appearance of shattering record setting prices.
I do think there will be a small dip, and then a rise, but I don't see it being as generous as the past few years have been.
<< <i>I hope card prices stabilize and go down a bit...I'll be able to get more of what I want at a better price and so will you. This for me is about the enjoyment, while I also feel I collect investment pieces. My collection will get passed down to my son...it's a great hobby and will continue to be strong in my opinion >>
I'm with this guy 100%. Collectors in their 30s and 40s now have decades more to pursue and compete for their desired pieces, which I think means more to most than selling even a $10,000 card for a healthy profit of $5,000. Even that 50% profit is so far from a life-changing sum, whereas the card in question might be a beloved and cherished centerpiece that distinguishes a collection.
It seems there are always these 'crystal ball' discussions, essentially wondering what will happen to cards, price-wise. I think passionate collectors will collect no matter the short-term vagaries of the economy. Hobbies, for many, are vitally important to the health of the human condition, and one's enjoyment of their hobby becomes a part of their life that cannot be fundamentally changed by the chance to pocket some extra cash (in boom times), or the chance of seeing their cards temporarily be worth a bit less cash (in a downturn).
Personally, I am pursuing the cards I want as aggressively as possible. I don't think the price of a '52 Mantle or a Pippen RC is going to cause any collector who loves his cards to suddenly freak out at the dizzying highs and sell-- though I wish it would, as I could then maybe find some nice pieces in a dry landscape. What stands out to me is that even with the high prices being paid, great stuff is still not leaving collections to be sold. That, to me, is the salient feature of this current market: the high prices are not bringing out the good cards en masse. Great sportscards are just few and far between, and the demand for them is simply greater than the supply. That will hold true well after the next economic dip, and the next surge, and the dip after that, and the surge after that, etc.
Instagram: mattyc_collection
i have literally found that way more exciting and interesting than most of the stuff I have allocated over the past 7 years or so.
with this new addition, i have basically classified my collection into 3 categories...
1. the childhood stuff. never for sale.
2. stuff i've accumulated since reentering the hobby. mostly stuff that will never be for sale.
3. items that have been upgraded or present better for the grade , which leaves them not really belonging to the first two lines and not really doing anything.
i do possess a lil ocd, as i think most collectors do. i have a defined space for the collection which also keeps me in check to pursue stuff i really want.
but when i mix my available space w/ having a few dupes and add a dash of what the market is like, i just can't find a reason to justify holding out...
<< <i>
<< <i>I hope card prices stabilize and go down a bit...I'll be able to get more of what I want at a better price and so will you. This for me is about the enjoyment, while I also feel I collect investment pieces. My collection will get passed down to my son...it's a great hobby and will continue to be strong in my opinion >>
I'm with this guy 100%. Collectors in their 30s and 40s now have decades more to pursue and compete for their desired pieces. >>
What I wonder is how many "new" collectors in their 30s and 40s are entering the market. I, like many others on this board, started as a kid in the 1985-1993 range. Every single one of my friends from childhood has a stash of those cards and fond memories of them. I'm back in after 20 years off; how many more of those kids are going to be re-entering the market with cash to spend? I'm guessing I'm in the middle of that wave of collectors re-entering the market and looking for cards they couldn't afford as a kid. If that's right, prices in general will keep pushing up for a while. The super-high end investment type cards may play by their own rules, rules I don't understand, but I'm guessing otherwise we'll see continued increased demand for a while.
throw in highest graded and/or mantle anything 8 or 9 and all rules books are out the window.
edit: brain fart in spelling.
In the next 10 years I don't see that pop number increasing much since there is no wax to rip open, and doubt many 7's will cross over to an 8 these days with tougher grading standards. What that creates is a situation consisting of: limited supply, increased demand, with more collectors out there with money to spend = higher prices. I think serious collectors have started to figure out the above, and if they want a card they better get it now before prices get too high.
The people in this hobby are not living on the low end fringe. On the flip side, I don't think there are a lot of people taking out home equity loan to buy cards. While there maybe selling runs here and there, I don't see a sell off trend.
<< <i>What I saw at the National for the first time was a real shortage of top level cards available to purchase. As many know I am a huge fan of the 1956 Mantle card - not unlike other collectors on here and this card is becoming scarce despite a pop of over 300+. For example last year I found at least 15-20 examples in PSA 8 on the floor and 3 of them at one table for between $3300-3800. I did not buy any of them die to centering, corners... as well as the asking price at the time. Today I would buy a Mantle PSA 8 sight unseen for those prices - nice ones go for $5500-6500 now.
In the next 10 years I don't see that pop number increasing much since there is no wax to rip open, and doubt many 7's will cross over to an 8 these days with tougher grading standards. What that creates is a situation consisting of: limited supply, increased demand, with more collectors out there with money to spend = higher prices. I think serious collectors have started to figure out the above, and if they want a card they better get it now before prices get too high. >>
Are you messing around inside my head? I couldn't have said it better.
this X 100000.
I'm 35 and got back into collecting 4 years ago. I've built up a pretty decent collection over the last few years (wish I had done more in the first couple when prices were still more reasonable)...but it's our generation that will dictate where this "hobby" really goes price wise (outside of a significant economic downturn in general to the US/global economy). With the sheer volume of people our age who collected cards in the last 80s, the potential is still enormous. I'm not saying they all reenter and buy $5K cards like they are shoes, but i think we can't underestimate how many potential "new" 2nd time collectors are out there.
i, too, was in the 80's collectors boom and i did have an appreciate for mantle, ruth, aaron etc...
was mainly in the canseco, mattingly, strawberry arena and that supply is and will remain readily available in my opinion...
however
mantle, ruth, aaron, mays (ewe), ryan, rose guys of that caliber aside:
and not to step on any toes, and all apologies in advance, but do you see the 80's - 90's boom collectors aggressively pursing...
random topps sets from the 50's/60's and/or players like b. and f. robinson, killebrew, snider, kaline, mccovey, etc?
again, not knocking those guys at all...
<< <i>mantle, ruth, aaron, mays (ewe), ryan, rose guys of that caliber aside:
and not to step on any toes, and all apologies in advance, but do you see the 80's - 90's boom collectors aggressively pursing...
random topps sets from the 50's/60's and/or players like b. and f. robinson, killebrew, snider, kaline, mccovey, etc?
again, not knocking those guys at all... >>
There has been some discussion here about underrated HOF'ers. There is a fairly long list including the players you mentioned above and I would include Yaz and E.Banks but that is for a different thread. At some point the supply of the "1st tier" HOF'ers may diminish with prices going out of reach. At that point perhaps the underrated HOF'ers will be more in demand. Similar to when certain cards sky rocket in PSA 9 and go out of reach and then the demand for a PSA 8 example increases. Clemente, Aaron, Gretzky, etc. are recent examples that come to mind. Now might be a good time to get on board while great examples of these cards are relatively affordable.
Baseball, it is said, is only a game. True. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole in Arizona.
-George F. Will
<< <i>extremely well thought-out and valid points, gentleman!
i, too, was in the 80's collectors boom and i did have an appreciate for mantle, ruth, aaron etc...
was mainly in the canseco, mattingly, strawberry arena and that supply is and will remain readily available in my opinion...
however
mantle, ruth, aaron, mays (ewe), ryan, rose guys of that caliber aside:
and not to step on any toes, and all apologies in advance, but do you see the 80's - 90's boom collectors aggressively pursing...
random topps sets from the 50's/60's and/or players like b. and f. robinson, killebrew, snider, kaline, mccovey, etc?
again, not knocking those guys at all... >>
Once that collecting bug strikes again there's no predicting exactly where it will take someone. For every 80s-boom collector trying to self-submit a full set of 10s of a late 80s issue there will be one whose Dad's favorite player was Al Kaline or one who finds the 3 cards from 1957 that they traded for when they were 10 and decides to pursue that set or one who loves the new shiny stuff. And all those collectors have kids now too and will hopefully pass it on. I'm not saying we'll keep seeing the exponential increases of the last few years, which I suspect is unsustainable, but overall I think prices will slowly push up until the older generation of collectors starts dying, when we might see a lot of collections hit the market in a relatively short period of time.
But just in case you should probably sell some of those less well-collected HOFers (and Mays too, I mean, yuck) that you have immediately to beat the rush. I'd even let them go at slightly below market to make sure you are out of them before the crash. I'll send you my list.
<< <i>I do question how many of the 30s generation gets into the t20x or real early cards. I know there are a few young people that collect these, but I do feel like these sets are dominated by older collectors. Outside of the real famous names I just don't have motivation to collect a set where I've heard of 5% of players >>
this is exactly where I was going w. that post....
<< <i>I love collecting, but I also love the thought of what I collect to retain its value or appreciate. I fear that, ultimately, when us 30 to 45 year-olds are gone, the generations that have followed didn't grow up collecting like we did. The result is far less people giving a crap about baseball cards and leading to some devaluation. >>
I love my wacky packs, but that is surely going to be their fate, with literally all who care about them being in the same tight 45-55 year old demographic. I plan on taking mine to the grave.
<< <i>
<< <i>I love collecting, but I also love the thought of what I collect to retain its value or appreciate. I fear that, ultimately, when us 30 to 45 year-olds are gone, the generations that have followed didn't grow up collecting like we did. The result is far less people giving a crap about baseball cards and leading to some devaluation. >>
I love my wacky packs, but that is surely going to be their fate, with literally all who care about them being in the same tight 45-55 year old demographic. I plan on taking mine to the grave. >>
Lol! You and me both Dave, with Coffin Mate and Grave Train at the top of the stack.
edit: just having fun, no undertones at all. i'd claim it!
My "compulsion" goes in another direction.
I believe it was Lee who said: "Stone hasn't sold anything since the Carter administration"
I thought that was funny and spot on. I'm a collector and it's almost impossible for me to part with anything.
<< <i>I do question how many of the 30s generation gets into the t20x or real early cards. I know there are a few young people that collect these, but I do feel like these sets are dominated by older collectors. Outside of the real famous names I just don't have motivation to collect a set where I've heard of 5% of players >>
I think you will find this to be somewhat true. I think it's a natural progression. You'd be surprised how addicting it can be. I love high end 50's material as much as anybody, but it's another level when you're talking overall scarcity rather than condition rarity. And in reality, nobody in there 30' early 40's never saw Mantle, Clemente to a lesser extent Mays and Aaron. Cobb, Wagner, Ruth, Johnson, Mathewson, Cy Young and Lajoie will always command attention.
Populations of high end 50/60's won't skyrocket, but I imagine there is still a lot of raw material yet to be graded.
Here's what was on tap there, e.g. - and the TOPPS booth went nuts on Friday!!!
Leaf
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Platinum Series
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Topps
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The hunt for "the" insert was compelling.
I would refer to it as "Cardboard Crack."
didn't want to state anything as it seems to be frowned upon, but i put my 52 topps set and my 88 fleer basketball sets up.
did fairly good on the 52 set, but the shocker was the 88 fleer basketball...
looking back, i would definitely say it was a great time to let go!!!
If someone has only heard of 5% of the players from any particular time period, they're obviously not going to be drawn to that avenue of the hobby. But there will always be people that study and enjoy the history of a sport and I believe true rarity will always win out in the end. Just my $0.02.
Arthur
Arthur - into which category do you slot Eli Grba ?
Bowman Baseball -1948-1955
Fleer Baseball-1923, 1959-2007
Al
Arthur