Remember those $400+ prices on 1998-P JFK MS67?

Monstavet

A while back there was some discussion on 1998-P JFK in MS67. One sold then for over $400 in fierce bidding. Well, one sold this morning on Ebay for $102.50, and several more are now listed there as well. Maybe this date is not as tough as people were thinking? Or are the high prices just driving out lots of nice Kennedys? I have been watching a lot of nice Kennedys sell for prices that would almost be considered low in the last 10-14 days since several major players finished sets, and several others decided to sell. Anyone else noticed this? It seems that now is a good time to be a buyer. Unfortunately, I was the underbidder on that 98-P this morning...I was only willing to pay $100 for it...maybe next time!
Monsta

Bcsican

I`ve been watching this for quite some time. There are other years that this is happening to also. Pops are steadly rising and prices are falling. I made a few posts not long ago about this very subject so I dont want to repeat myself. But it could happen that MS 67 Kennedys are very common in many years, it will be interesting to see how common a 1998 P MS 67 Kennedy is when not long ago it was a 450 dollar coin, in the lat two weeks it was 150 now 100, by the end of the month it could be 25.00 and very easy to find at that price.

On 4/10/02 it was a pop of 13 now as of May its a pop of 24 and rising.....

Monstavet

I wonder if Datentype's offer of $350 for any on these coins still stands? One could make a nice profit at that rate.

wondercoin

Matt & Monsta: I bought about 1/2 dozen 1998 Kennedys this week in PCGS-MS67 for more than that auction closed at and I might have also won that coin but I was interested what level the coin would close at without my participation and so I watched it this morning. IMHO, that auction might not be indicative of the current market however because it was near impossible to find that auction on ebay. The seller did not even identify in the caption what demonination the coin was. Anyone searching Kennedys would have missed the auction entirely as no where was Kennedy or Half Dollar even mentioned in the heading.

These MS kennedys rotate wildly in price. One week, MS66 common date coins are selling for near $500 and the next week better date MS67 coins have difficulty breaking $100! When the rotation leads to sub-$100 MS67 pre-1999 coins (as it now has) I am happy to "stock the shelves". I probably have picked up around 30 MS67 pieces during this 2 week "crash". If the coins go to $25 as Matt suggests, BOY WILL THIS BE AN EXCITING SET TO ASSEMBLE ON A BUDGET!!

Anyone else with pre-1999 PCGS-MS67 Kennedys available, please PM me with your asking prices. Wondercoin.

cladking

Let's keep this in perspective. 24 coins is not enough for every man, woman, and child in
the country to have an example. No MS-67 unc clad half is common, though a few are merely
scarce.

Bcsican

Id be willing to put money on that the 1998 P MS 67 will be very common and the prices will fall to around 25-35 each. This coin was a pop of 13 on April 10th, on May 18th it was 24, it doubled in just over a month at this rate even on the low side this will be well over 100 coins by the end of the year.

The 1999 P and the 1996 P have done the same thing, these coins started out with low pops and the prices around 100-150. Now its so common you can pick one up for 20 bucks, the 1998 P will follow this same pattern. I know of at least 75 going in for submission and I know half are solid MS 67s.

The 1996 P was a pop of 101 on 4/14/02, 105 on 5/18/02

The 1999 P was 123 on 4/14/02 now a pop of 162 almost "40" coin pop increase in just a little over a month.

pontiacinf

im with Bcsican

Although i can see Mitches point if he just bought a load of em

pontiacinf

hmmmmmm

which brings up a funny point....the registry started, there were low pops on alot...now that
its been in action for over a year pops are rising quick...wooohoooo



not good for the reg dealers, huh?


oh well, on the grand level, you cant please everyone.

I know one thing that moving in a deffinate opisite direction

THATS ALL THOSE BUFFALOS I HAVE STORED

Datentype

Okay guys read carefully for those of you that think this stuff is easy!!!!!!!!!! It has taken me about 1,000 mint sets to temporarily ruin the prices on the 98-p and 98-d Kennedy in 7. One mint sealed box batch of 7 100 mint set boxes (that's 700 for those that are bad at math) yielded 3 98-d and 5 98-p Kennedy's in pcgs ms67. Out of that batch 4 98-p quarters were made in 7 and 1 98-d quarter was made in 7. 3 98-p Lincoln's and 1 98-d Lincoln's no ms67 fs jeff's were made and only 2 98-p's in 6 fs and 1 98-d in 5 fs.

My pcgs invoice link type in 337848

If you guys want me to do the math, just those sets alone cost me $ to make these coins. kennedy buyers are so unappreciative of the effort made to get these coins to the market and in some cases long hours and little profits that they should lighten up a little bit.

True, I found 2 ms68's in two separate batches of 100 that helped pay for the losses of the 7 100 count original mint seled boxes, but it brought my hourly wage up from -10/hr to $5.00/hr.

I would like to make this a standard offer to anyone who thinks these super high grade coins are easy to make. I will give mint set statistics and rolls statistics to anybody who has specific questions. I can also find several fellow "slabbers" that will vouch for my numbers. The next question is going to be: "Why do you do this Mark if you don't make any money and have to keep having your eyes lazer adjusted for the long hunting hours". My answer to that is: "over the long haul I have found a system that has low enough cost of goods sold involved to make it profitable" Also, I actually enjoy the hunt and challenge of dealing with PCGS as well. It's as much of an art as it is a business or science.

Let me know what you guys all think.

Regards,
mark

Bcsican

Mark,
I agree with you 100% on how difficult it is to find these Kenndys in high grade MS 67+. It takes time dollars and commitment. The one thing that is certain though the mints circulation strikes are of much higher quality than in the past years and the condition is holding much better that in the past.

Not true of all years, but more so of the coins minted 94 on. The 1999 P is a perfect example of what I see the trend to be in some years in these newer minted coins. An increase of almost 40 coins in MS 67 in just over a month. Everone keeps saying how difficult it is to find these, but 40 coins in MS 67 in one month is a lot.

The days of trying to trickle in the high grade coins into the market are over, people see these high prices and go for the dollars. The thing that is interesting they are finding some of these years in MS 67 in large numbers.

It still means millions have not been searched in the 1999 P alone, yes in comparision the numbers are still lower than one might think, but I dont feel the market can keep a coin that will soon end up over 200 at a 100 dollars a coin, it could happen I just dont think it will, dealers need to sooner or later move the inventory they have and as more are graded and they will find more 1999 P MS 67s the prices will stabilize at their worth value, not speculated value.

As I said before the 1998 P by the end of this year will be over 100 coins in MS 67 and climbing, just watch......

P.S. I do value the effort to get the results you do by puttting so much time into the searching of these gem 67s

cladking

Thanks Datentype, I don't have much experience with the late date sets
so any information is valuable to me. For those still not paying attention,
that's a MINTAGE of 1,700 coins for the 98-D quarter in MS-67!!! Don't figure all
those coins still exist because many have been lost to time and espec-
ially Kennedy collectors who cut the set and spend the lower denomination
coins. These same considerations apply to ALL the sets of the past 37 yrs,
except that large percentages of the older sets have been destroyed. Yes,
populations will continue up for some time, but obviously they'll never exceed
the mintage.

cladking

Bcsican: It seems unlikely that coin collecting can survive as a mass
hobby without large numbers of new collectors. If there are large
numbers of new collectors mintages in the thousand will look quite
rare. So where are you going to put your money today?

Datentype

Bcsican, put your $ where your mouth is on this over 100 by the end of the year shear nonsense. i got $1,000 to put towards that bet. let me know and we'll put whatever $ you want in escrow. if you're so sure, let's do it for a pop of 50 in pcgs ms67!! The 99-p pops have grown mainly due to the massive search for high grade quarters.

Monstavet

I don't think they are easy to find at all...there will be more, but it will take the effort of slabbers like Datentype to find them. I am just amazed at the huge price swings within such a short time...I am willing to pay more money for a coin, but if I am worried that next week it will be 1/5 of the cost, I think it might be better to wait...and right now, MS Kennedys are all over the place. Now, "common" Walkers from the 40s in MS66 and even 67, some with populations in the hundreds, and even thousands, sell for many hundreds of dollars. Sure, different series, different composition, etc...but just population statistics don't tell the whole story here.

Datentype

I agree with Monstevat. There are a couple of factors that play into the huge swing as I see it. fisrt of all, we're forgetting that it should have never have been $400 plus in the first place, but maybe $300-$350 I suppose. Secondly, this series is thinly traded and. Third, my timing of spending well over $10,000 to procure mint sets could not have come at a worse time as 2 of the few collector's have dropped out. Anyway, we can argue all day long, but these sets in all denominations go up and down in prices regularly and the best thing to do is buy now! They will go back up.

My last thought is and i'd like to put together a real weighting system for coin difficulty: pops are not everything! realatve difficulty from a large sample is my barometer! if one is making opinions on how easy these are to make and that pops are going to explode by the end of the year, they had better take a sample of a thousand or two before making uninformed statements.

Anyway, this has all been said before and I think a lot of people just try and create controversy for the fun of it!!!!!!!!!!

Monstavet

wondercoin

My 2 cents:

Mark REGULARLY goes "into the trenches" as I do (now on occasion because I have found my time better spent buying the finished products like I did this month) to find super high end clad Kennedys and other clad coins. They are EXTREMELY TOUGH to grade in MS67 (pre-1999) and just try to find 700 1998 original mint sets to even have the raw materials to try!!

I knew about Mark's 700 1998 Mint Set find and I "put my money where my mouth is" by spending thousands and thousands of dollars on the MS Kennedys this month. The only coins I actually passed on were not "PQ" for the grade as I wanted to stock the very best coins for collectors for the months and years ahead. While these "moderns" may sell without scans, I screen every coin I take in and buy the nice pieces "sight-seen" - Mark can attest to that.

Bottom line is, imho, Mark would be "taking candy from a baby" (sorry Mark if no one takes your bet) if he got takers on his $1000 bet that the pop will not reach 100 1998(p) Kennedys in PCGS-MS67 by the end of the year. And, no offense Matt either - I just want to try to save you $1,000!

Knowledeable collectors and dealers "smell" opportunity. A month ago the opportunity was to sell common date MS66 Kennedys at $200-$500 coin. My personal opportunity today (obviously I will lose up to 80% of my money if Matt is correct) is to buy up quantities of NICE pre-1999 MS67 Kennedys at under $125/coin.

There is plenty of "fear" out there now on buying these MS Kennedys. I personally love buying at that time in the market cycle. And, if I am wrong and I lose 80% as Matt predicts, I'll still be no worse off than my "blue chip" purchase of Worldcom stock a couple years ago! Wondercoin

Datentype

What he said!

Bcsican

Hi Mark,
I will take you up on that bet, you said 50 by the end of the year in MS 67 wont happen? Like I said I know of a solid 30 going to be submitted soon, but most likely will be spread out as not to flood the market so how about we split 50 for 500 100 for a 1000? IM in..

Matt

Bcsican

P.S. This coin (1998 P )was minted in the millons even at one percent the pops in the long haul would be well over a 1000 coins graded in MS 67, one % is the bottom of the barrel..... its simple arithmetic, of course they all wont be graded but you need a starting point for statistics, less than 100 coins have been submitted for grading yet 25% of these are MS 67 coins..... even if a million were searched there will be many more MS 67s out there to be found. As soon as the 1998 is submitted like the 1999 the pops will rise......I love you guys no problem here we will see in the long run whos right.

also the 1999 P has 353 coins submitted with almost half MS 67...

Datentype

I'm not going to waste my time on this one anymore. Unless you have personally looked through these, then you can't really comment from the difficulty angle. Sorry Matt, just my opinion and no offense. You can not ever include the amount submitted and graded as any sort of barometer for what percentage are going to be graded ms67. That is nonsensical as thousands are screened. As far as a million sets, not even a small percentage of these will ever be looked at period as they are spread out to collectors. As for hoards of 700 like I found, forget it period! Lastly, your buddy with the 30 or whatever he's going to submit, that's a crock of BS if they are from mint sets or he cannot grade.