1953 Mantle PSA 8 goes for over $42,000 !!... The new norm or bubble?

seebelow

This was posted on another forum and with all the new threads of Mantle here, I thought Id share.

..."PWCC had a '53 Mantle PSA 8 close at $42,300 last night. Very nice card but wondering if we are venturing into a new bubble or are a new group of buyers (aka investors) looking at cards as viable investments." an OP on a diff forum.

He's the iconic figure/card of the industry, arguably. Seems that theres always a thread about him. And with prices only headed upward. Especially of the high grade 8's or above. Id def agree that we are in a bubble in general. Although once it pops Mick should be one of the last to lose its value.

Not to mention the 52's going for 4-5x recent prices. what was once 79k now in the 200k's.

Forget high grade 52's (Im priced out of an 8, tho i see maybe one a year)....people now going for the low grade 3s and 4s. This may be spillage over to the 53s. I personally enjoy the artwork of the 53 vs 52, red white and blue etc. For 30k id rather have a gorgeous 53 8 vs a beat up '52 4.

Most everyone agrees that we're in a bubble but i haven't seen any less demand or a let up in bids for select niches in our bball market. Id be the first to admit I've paid prices where once the bubble bursts I'm losing a lot of money......but I'm so addicted to a nicely centered, vibrant, sharp cornered piece of cardboard. Ugh..
Never thought a 53 psa 8 would get over 40k....that auction there did look to be a shiller or two (could have been the owner) but I know of 2-3 people willing to pay in the 40s for that or a similar card. Interesting food for thought.

So is this the new norm or is it an over inflated bubble ready to burst? What are you guys buying or waiting on?

seebelow

Kind of glad I can't make the National. Im thinking its still a sellers market and that they may not last long. Let me know how its going out there...prices, quantity, quality? thanks

mattyc_collection

There is no crystal ball, just opinions. My own (worthless) opinion is that there is no "bubble." What there is, is a new group of young men in their late twenties and early thirties earning money and joining the fray for these cards, alongside men in their 70s-- and all those in between. It's a popular hobby, still, with a limited number of nice-looking cards in any grade for all those who desire them-- and some crazy collectors desire more than one That said, there are always cycles, rebounds, etc., but what endures the vagaries of any economy is a collector's love of whatever he collects.

PS: You wouldn't necessarily be forced to choose between the PSA 8 53T in question and a "beat-up" 4, as for less than the aforementioned 42.3k you could obtain a very nice 52T Mantle that presents beautifully-- it would just take patience to wait for one to hit the open market. Then again, beauty is in the eye of the beholder, as they say, and one man's "beat-up" might be another's "gorgeous," and vice versa.

CW

<< <i>Then again, beauty is in the eye of the beholder, as they say, and one man's "beat-up" might be another's "gorgeous," and vice versa. >>



I guess this is similar in the car world.

One collector wants a '36 Ford pickup that looks like this...



While another Ford geek wants one like this...



It's all good!

begsu1013

i like both of those and a lil bit of everything else:



one thing most car guys will express that differs from card guys, is that tastes can vary from day to day.

saturday i'll take that rat rod (and that thing is bad arse)
sunday i'll take the original 36

i don't know too many card guys that collect t206 that wake up on sunday and will say...gonna go after 2015 chrome today.


as for top tier cards and more specifically mantles, there really hasn't been a lengthy bubble burst, has there?

demand is high and love waiting for short term downward spikes to transpire but they are few and far between.

it certainly isn't a "buyer's market" right now, but when we look back in 5 years I bet we say "woulda, coulda, shoulda"

KendallCat

One other thing to think about in regards to vintage material and demand is that new stuff is not holding its value, so people are putting their money into vintage versus say a 2015 Bowman chrome. Also, with so few card shops around kids cannot break open packs and move stuff locally. Without Ebay there is no place to sell goods, and of course without Ebay we might have a few more shops open. High end Mantle cards, Ruth, Aaron. Ryan, Rose... will always command strong prices.

ndleo

As prices rose, I was in the "market is the market" camp. There is no "bubble" since the market dictates the prices.

I am reconsidering that position. Bubbles have happened in other markets - stocks, gold, art, stamps, etc - and if you are old enough there was a huge bubble in the late 1980's to early 1990's.

The conventional wisdom that the high grade vintage stuff is immune to bubble has been true up to now, but the latest jump suggests that there maybe other "non-market" forces at work here. An influx of money from rich tech guys or international buyers? Young Wall Street guys looking for the next "it" item to have?

I know a lot of collectors (including myself) that have decent spending power and I don't think this latest jump has been driven by guys like me who all of a sudden feel the need to spend a home downpayment on cards. Wages overall in this country are stagnant so I don't think there is wide support driving prices up.

I'm going to the National this year for the first time. I was planning to buy but I wonder if it is time to meet some of the auction houses to see who I would use to "cash in" my chips.