Pricing at the upcoming National
OckhamsRazor
Posts: 207 ✭✭
Given that strong prices are continuing to be recognized in the market today, and the usual price inflation typically seen at the National anyway, I'm beginning to think the prices to be reflected at the tables this year are going to be crazy. When browsing at a show, I normally adjust my price-evaluation process to incorporate a slight premium because there is value to being able to personally inspect a card as well as obtain possession immediately. But with much of the market headed up, I'm wondering how much premium may also be priced in to reflect future, upward market pricing pressures. As I look at auctions closing and closed in the last few weeks, I have to assume that some of this activity has to be dealers buying up RC's, hi-grade stars, low pops, etc. to build inventory to sell at the National that they'll be able to turn for a relatively quick profit. At this point they only have about 2 weeks left to bring in inventory.
I think I'm going to need to bring more cash to the National.
I think I'm going to need to bring more cash to the National.
Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man. Advances which permit this norm to be exceeded — here and there, now and then — are the work of an extremely small minority, frequently despised, often condemned, and almost always opposed by all "right-thinking" people. Whenever this tiny minority is kept from creating, or (as sometimes happens) is driven out of a society, the people then slip back into abject poverty.
This is known as “bad luck.”
This is known as “bad luck.”
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You did not mention what you'd be looking for, but then that may be attributed to the typical poker player card collector defense mechanism.
Really, it doesn't matter. It's none of my business, regardless.
However, I will offer you a word of advice, based upon my experiences at those few major shows I attended.
Bring absolutely the most money that you can honestly put towards the purchase of several cards, or even one extraordinary card.
You still have a few weeks to distill your mental or actual list down of what would be truly the favored few special cards you would love to own. The reason is that you probably will see a few of those "chances of a lifetime" whilst browsing the tables. True, technically the given card might be found eventually, but as you yourself mentioned, the pleasure of looking a card over carefully, and then finding one or a few that really hits your "gotta have it" button. You want to go for just those cards, or even that one card that says----I got a card I want to keep for the rest of my collecting life. I will never tire of looking at this one. When I look at this card, I am a kid again. I never, ever thought I would get this card, and now I found one I just love, that's just right to me, and, at the end---that makes my show and my collecting year!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
No one's gonna hold a gun to your head to buy it, and no one is gonna give a high quality card away, lest the owner is desperate right now for moolah.
For me, if I were going, I'd want a fresh-looking 1952 Royal Desserts Gordie Howe, graded PSA 5 or better. If I loved basketball, how about an early 60s Kahn's Wieners Jerry West in strong PSA 7. Football---a 1962 Salada Coins Johnny Unitas in PSA 8 or better. Baseball, there's one I want so bad I won't mention it, for fear I might create another rival for the card. That's right, bub. Sometimes I must play the typical poker player card collector.
Anyway, here's wishing you my very best, brother, and I hope you find a card of your dreams that you can afford, even if it takes all your moolah.
How well I remember and loved the story Rich Mueller of SPORTS COLLECTORS DAILY wrote after a National a couple years back. He found a relatively rare Mickey Mantle dream card that he had badly wanted for years and years:
a 1960 Post Cereal!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Rich said that elegant Mantle took all the cash he had brought to the show, plus what he believed he could squeeze out of his ATM account. "Was it worth it?" he rhetorically asked his readers.
He said he'd probably take it to bed with him all the next week.
THAT'S the kind of card or item to go after, bro!
So, have a go, mate!
Cheers. ----Indiana Jones (Brian Powell)
<< <i>I will be heading to the National again this year and bringing the family along with another family. For me it ranks as one of the top trips for us every year. I agree that pricing is higher there, but you also get to see a bunch of great stuff in person. Biggest change IMO is the use of VCP as a tool, and this past year it has been the best thing to help my collecting. Now rather than a few Ebay advanced searches or SMR which is 2-3 years behind I have actual pricing based on current up to date auctions on Ebay and other sites. If a dealer wants to charge 20-30% above VCP it is really easy to have accurate numbers to negotiate with the dealer. Looking forward to it. >>
I couldn't agree more. One benefit of being in person is the price is never set in stone. When you have digital data on what a 1955 XXXX PSA 7 has sold for over the past 6 months its hard for a dealer to argue. Also these dealers know what they have and from past experience the National gouge is not terrible and can usually be negotiated down.
With that said here is my chase list. Going to be looking for low to mid grade.
1887 N28 Allen & Ginter CAP ANSON
1887 N28 Allen & Ginter Charles Comiskey
1911 T3 Turkey Red Cabinets #47 Frank Chance
1911 T3 Turkey Red 16 Johnny Evers
1938 Goudey Baseball Heads Up #288 Bob Feller
1914 CRACKER JACK#66 NAP LAJOIE
1954 Ernie Banks (Makes most sense for my collection)
My Sandberg topps basic set
My Sandberg Topps Master set