PCGS Price Guide 10 year chart

stevepk

The PCGS price guide includes a link for every coin in every grade to a value chart over time. Users can select up to a ten year time frame. I acknowledge the PCGS price guide tends not to reflect reality as it tends to be on the high side, but can trends be accurately assessed with this PCGS valuation tool? When I view a ten year graph for the coins in my collection, I see a trend of cyclical ups and downs, but steady increases in value over the long run. Even though the actual numbers may be skewed, are trends at least accurately reflected in the PCGS price guide charts? My goal is not to make a profit as this is only a hobby, but I would like to think carefully chosen coins are a good store of value.

roadrunner

PCGS CU3000 10 year chart

Unless you're buying some very solid collector coins in the "right" grades (like 1839-0 halves) or hanging with TDN, it's not been easy to stay on the upswing these past 5 years. The key date and rarity index is the only one showing outstanding gains over the entire 30 year period.

The 10 year chart above shows a very slight uptrend. However, note also that the 10yr uptrend line has broken to the downside back around the start of 2015. The 30 yr chart is not all the "nice" looking either.

Though the PCGS price guide is far from perfect, when trending over many years a lot of those imperfections in pricing are generally massaged out.

3sidesofsilver

As long as you remember that 'past performance is no guarantee of future gains', use it as but one tool in your buying decision. That's what I do. If I see a 10 year trend on a MS62 is down, but up on a MS63, that one piece of information will lead me to choose a 63. But like I said, it is but one consideration for me. Everyone has their own checklist for buying. Knowledge is power, and the more pieces you have in your arsenal, the better your decisions will be.

EagleEye

Would an upward chart make you want to buy a certain type more than an even chart or a downward one? I think there is tremendous value in coins that seem to be languishing right now, like Proof Seated and Barber type in attractive PR63 and PR64. These are priced right about where they were in the late 1970's, although back then they were concidered gems.

rhedden

Some observations after looking at specific coins I own...

1) Early copper and bust coinage in collector grades (G4 to AU58) has done nothing but chug upwards steadily. My chain cent is now worth 6.5x what I paid for it in 2002. (Note to self: go back to collecting this material. It is oblivious to market trends).

2) "Investment grade" coins turned out to include some of the very worst investments over the past 5 years.

3) One surprising thing to me is that coins like BU and proof Barbers/Seated that are truly rare and desirable in high MS grades seem to have taken a pounding. I understand that generic Morgans and Saints can take huge dives when the market cools off, but I never thought the truly rare material would take this kind of a beating.


The longer I stay in the coin game, the more I am convinced that the best investment strategy is simply to follow the trends in what other people are collecting. A lot can be gleaned from reading these boards and judging which areas of collecting are growing in interest. For example, posts about Bust halves really started to pick up in the early 2000s, and people were fawning over pretty AU58 coins. These posts were truly harbingers of things to come!

stevepk

The purpose is not to consider future purchases, but to determine how past purchases have done. I understand there are other resources available, but the PCGS price guide chart is so convenient and easy to use. It would be nice to know I can rely on the PCGS price guide chart to determine whether the coins I purchased five or ten years ago have increased or decreased in value since I bought them.

JJSingleton

What the chart does not show is the effect of gradeflation. Those who have held coins for 10 to 15 years have that added boost to their performance.

BryceM

Why does everyone want to buy in an upward market? Times like these are called buying opportunities.

stevepk

<< <i>Why does everyone want to buy in an upward market? Times like these are called buying opportunities. >>



This has nothing to do with buying in an upward market. I have a number of coins I purchased five or ten years ago. I am curious whether they have appreciated or depreciated in value since I purchased them. The best way to determine this is to sell them and see how they do, however, I do not want to sell them right now. This is where data references can be valuable tools. The PCGS price guide charts are convenient and easy to use. These charts also suggest the coins I purchased ten years ago have gradually increased in value over the long run. My question is whether these trends depict reality. There are so many sources of unreliable information in this hobby. Is this particular source of information reliable or unreliable?

My coins happen to be collector coins rather than investment coins. My definition of an investment coin is one with a market value of $10,000 or more while a collector coin is valued less than $10,000. Not a single coin in my collection is anywhere near $10,000.

My ultimate objective is to determine whether carefully chosen coins are an effective store of value. Some of the responses so far are optimistic while others are pessimistic. I would like to think coin collecting is one of the few hobbies a person can enjoy and break even in the end. The PCGS price guide charts suggest this is well within reason. Some collectors I've spoken to agree this is well within reason. Other collectors and dealers strongly suggest breaking even or making a profit in this hobby is highly unlikely. Conflicting information from sources perceived as reliable can be confusing. I've learned over time where the Greysheet is right and where the Greysheet is wrong by asking questions and making observations. Once again, I am making observations and asking questions.

I've been collecting for about ten years and am curious about the long run (20+ years). If coins are not an efficient store of value, I will continue to collect as I enjoy the hobby, but I at least want to know. The PCGS tool I am questioning suggests coins are an efficient store of value.

3sidesofsilver

The 'right coins' are an efficient store of value. You just need to study and research to find them. I like the 2003 First Flight commems and have been buying 69s. As an example, I saw the proof half in 70 has a current PCGS value of $190. Out of curiousity, I checked the 10 year trend and saw a price of $800 10 years ago - not a good store of value at all. Had You 'invested' in those, you would be

bolivarshagnasty

That Sept. 14 to April 15 drop is pretty dramatic. Part of the reason I'm watching and not buying.