1986 Fleer Basketball set break - anybody see this? - COUNTDOWN to MJ - 10...9...ZERO! GET READY FO

bounce · February 14, 2015 10:29AM

Hey gang - after long last another 1986 Fleer basketball set break

Couple of these went down last summer and sold out in about 4 hours

1986 Fleer Basketball set break

slum22 · February 14, 2015 12:15PM

I know about the breaks you are talking about. I couldn't find it on your link though. Where is it on the site? Has it already happened?

cardsfan73 · February 14, 2015 3:43PM

<< I know about the breaks you are talking about. I couldn't find it on your link though. Where is it on the site? Has it already happened? >>

It's right on the front page of the link provided... also if you look to the left under "Categories" there is a listing for 1986 Fleer Basketball Set Break.

http://www.opcbaseball.com/1986-fleer-basketball-psa-set-break/

slum22 · February 14, 2015 3:58PM

Thanks cardsfan73, I most certainly see it now. When I made my first post, I had hit the link Bounce gave and I was taken to the mobile page of OPC.com. Now that I am on my laptop, the link works for me now and yes even I could not miss the 86 Fleer set break ad on the page

I will be interested to see the price of each slot. This is a cool way to break a set. This is probably one of the best sets to break this way as there is such a high percentage of HOF RC's in the set.

halosfan · February 14, 2015 8:35PM

This will be fun

RyanAdmirer · February 14, 2015 9:09PM

Thanks for posting....looks like a lot of fun, and a lot more fun than tha tfor a few guys.

RookieHOFers · February 14, 2015 10:06PM

Very cool!

bounce · February 19, 2015 9:29AM

if you're interested, looks like this is on! if it's like the last ones over the summer, it will sell out pretty quick.

jfkheat · February 19, 2015 10:38AM

It looks like it may be sold out already
James

MULLINS5 · February 19, 2015 11:04AM

Goes live tomorrow at 10AM CST on the OPC website.

Doublestriker · February 19, 2015 1:12PM

How much for each slot. I couldn't find it on the web page.

MULLINS5 · February 19, 2015 1:15PM

$38 each

Davis · February 19, 2015 11:36PM

Anyone thinking about jumping in on this...I've been running the numbers in my head at $38/slot. Assume $35 for card and $3 for shipping. That's $35 x 143 cards = $5,005. Because there are a handful of key cards in PSA 8, I ran the SMR for a PSA 9 set and adjusted for the key cards in an 8. Now I know that SMR is dated on this set on a bundle of cards, but I think this run down comes close.

PSA 9 Set SMR 5764
Plus SMR PSA 8 Stickets $277
Less D Wilkins 8 Difference -$216
Less Barkley 8 Difference -$102
Less Jordan 8 Difference -$1,450
Less Mullin 8 Difference -$93
Less Checklist 8 Difference -$168
Less Isiah 8 Diff -$70
Less Worthy 8 Diff -$67
Less Steve Johnson 8 Diff -$42
Less Blackmon 8 Diff -$75
Less Birdson 8 Diff -$23
Total SMR $3,735

Premium on Lottery Sale $1,270
Premium on Lottery Sale 34%

That said...I might still jump in for 1 slot because it sounds fun...haha.

vintagefun · February 20, 2015 12:14AM

Bought 2 slots for poops and grins. Hopefully I get a grin and not 2 poops.

Juggs · February 20, 2015 12:25AM

Purchased 2. I predict more poop than grins for me.

shu4040 · February 20, 2015 12:29AM

Def a sucker bet. Especially with no 9 jordan. But I bought one

Davis · February 20, 2015 12:32AM

<< Def a sucker bet. Especially with no 9 jordan. But I bought one

>>

Me too. Went for 1. Haha. I think there's about 13 cards out of the 143 that will exceed the $38 cost. I hope it sells out fast for some Friday entertainment.

MULLINS5 · February 20, 2015 1:42AM

I've never owned a 86 Fleer card so I bought a slot. This will be fun. Maybe I'll run a lottery for a set of 89 topps hockey at $1/slot, lol.

Stingray · February 20, 2015 1:53AM

That is one off looking PSA 9 Drexler??

bounce · February 20, 2015 2:20AM

<< PSA 9 Set SMR 5764
Plus SMR PSA 8 Stickets $277
Less D Wilkins 8 Difference -$216
Less Jordan 8 Difference -$1,450
Total SMR $3,735

Premium on Lottery Sale $1,270
Premium on Lottery Sale 34%
>>

I'm working a set of PSA 9s myself, and can tell you SMR is behind on pricing for sure. A few examples:
1. PSA 8 stickers - Jabbar/Wilkins are not $42/$25. They're $60/$45 if you want any chance of winning. And Jordan is not $130 unless it's just inside OC qualifier, it's more like $150.

2. PSA 8 commons at $4 - I count exactly 3 auctions that are below that (when considering shipping costs), and exactly 8 just on bids. All I can say is good luck buying them for that! In fact, I'll go one step further - if you will take $4 per card for PSA 8 commons from this set, PLEASE PM ME RIGHT NOW! I WILL BUY EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM YOU HAVE, NO NEGOTIATION REQUIRED! Or hit me up after the break as well - I'll buy them.

How's that? Heck, I might even do it at $6/card. $7-8 per card is more realistic.

3. PSA 8 Jordan at $1,050 - For a nice PSA 8, you'll pay closer to $1,200, I've seen some as high as $1,400. I know there were some auctions below this, so maybe it's a decent "average" but my sense is that PSA 8s are picking up steam right along with the PSA 9s. They're getting harder to find and are getting more expensive, slowly but surely.

4. You aren't counting the 3% he probably pays to Paypal. That's $150.

Just by that math -
$3,735
1. +$45-60
2. +$200-300
3. +$100-150
TOTAL - $4,080-$4,245, premium is closer to 15-20% after fees assuming you can find or build the whole set (doesn't sound that hard but I can tell you from experience it is harder than you think). That will probably take a year if you want to control the costs and have the $4k to do it - that's the other consideration.

Plus, I'm not aware of another setbreak since the two last summer? If these things are really out there in sets why haven't we seen another one since then?

I'm interested to see how this goes, hopefully somewhere here hits the MJs! That would be SWEET!

parkerj · February 20, 2015 2:32AM

I'm in for a slot, cant resist a good gamble. And i don't even have 1 card from the set yet!

uniship · February 20, 2015 2:55AM

Bought 3 slots - this is my first "set break" and also my post here in years btw - FYI.

ClockworkAngel · February 20, 2015 3:24AM

I just looked at the "paid slot list" and saw that numbers have been assigned to each. Number 57 (Jordan) already has a taken slot. Am I safe in assuming that the set will be randomly assigned a number and it won't follow the number of the card?

vintagefun · February 20, 2015 3:27AM

Will be randomized twice thru random.org for final result I believe.

byronscott4ever · February 20, 2015 3:40AM

<< I just looked at the "paid slot list" and saw that numbers have been assigned to each. Number 57 (Jordan) already has a taken slot. Am I safe in assuming that the set will be randomly assigned a number and it won't follow the number of the card? >>

Just a guess, but I feel like some people play lucky numbers when it comes to breaks even with a randomizer.

schapko · February 20, 2015 3:58AM

Just took two slots. I figured why the H@ll not. I gamble and play powerball, so this has better odds and a nice jackpot.

RyanAdmirer · February 20, 2015 4:05AM

<< I just looked at the "paid slot list" and saw that numbers have been assigned to each. Number 57 (Jordan) already has a taken slot. Am I safe in assuming that the set will be randomly assigned a number and it won't follow the number of the card? >>

You can request the numbers of your slot (s). As long as it isn't taken he is giving that number. Those that don't make a request will receive random ones.

After slots are set then he is using random.org to decide which slot gets which card.

Mefer · February 20, 2015 4:48AM

I bought two slots. I figure you can spend $78 (if not more) on a box of modern and pull eight dollars worth of inserts. Odds seem much better here of pulling a decent card (even if you don't hit a Jordan).

Matt

vintagefun · February 20, 2015 4:54AM

Just got my 3rd and final slot. Figure it's a fraction of the cost of a pack at similar cost per card, but comes graded 8 or 9 and I actually have a chance (albeit slim) to get the Jordan, which is more than I can say for most packs.

All the best to the other participants...if the grins don't come my way, I hope they at least land here on the board.

Davis · February 20, 2015 5:10AM

<< Just got my 3rd and final slot. Figure it's a fraction of the cost of a pack at similar cost per card, but comes graded 8 or 9 and I actually have a chance (albeit slim) to get the Jordan, which is more than I can say for most packs.

All the best to the other participants...if the grins don't come my way, I hope they at least land here on the board. >>

Interesting way of looking at it...if you pay $700 for a pack with 12 cards + 1 sticker, that breaks down to $58/card. I might add one more slot as it gets close to filling up. If I don't hit the MJ, I hope I hit one of the 24 remaining cards I need to complete my PSA 8 set.

Best of luck to everyone!

lucasj · February 20, 2015 6:27AM

First post in a long time (been living in Indonesia for the last year) but bought a couple spots as well. Good luck y'all!

Luke

Juggs · February 20, 2015 6:32AM

I just hope someone on this board hits the MJ.

MULLINS5 · February 20, 2015 7:32AM

still quite a few of these left...the first sold out in about four hours, hoping this one does.

MULLINS5 · February 20, 2015 7:35AM

still quite a few of these left...the first sold out in about four hours, hoping this one does.

bounce · February 20, 2015 7:41AM

<< Just got my 3rd and final slot. Figure it's a fraction of the cost of a pack at similar cost per card, but comes graded 8 or 9 and I actually have a chance (albeit slim) to get the Jordan, which is more than I can say for most packs.

All the best to the other participants...if the grins don't come my way, I hope they at least land here on the board. >>

this is an interesting idea actually. and depending on where the pack came from, you can figure just about a 0% chance at the MJ. this year had a sequence to it, so you gotta figure even of the graded/slabbed packs there's not much chance of hitting an MJ RC.

I really hope someone from the board hits it.

MULLINS5 · February 20, 2015 7:44AM

still quite a few of these left...I may get another

galaxy27 · February 20, 2015 8:00AM

The degeneracy on display in this thread is staggering.

Just purchased two slots.

thenavarro · February 20, 2015 8:49AM

just bought one (i think lol)

shu4040 · February 20, 2015 9:00AM

To be honest it's a fairly ugly centered set. Some generous centering grading.

Just bought my 2nd slot.

jjworm · February 20, 2015 9:16AM

I'm in for two slots.

Just to get me in the mood, I noted my two slot positions and then watched the 5 minute video on the webpage that explains how it all works. Sure enough, the video shows a fictitious run on the random generator two times. I had my fingers crossed and paused the video at my positions to see what I would have received. The drawing gods were not with me and I ended up with two commons in PSA 8 worth $10 and $6 (according to Ebay completed sales). Here's hoping for better returns when the true drawing comes!

Karb · February 20, 2015 9:39AM

This should be fun for a cheap gamble.

Manofmoe · February 20, 2015 11:57AM

I just bought a spot. Whatever I get will be my only basketball card!

MULLINS5 · February 20, 2015 12:58PM

<< I just bought a spot. Whatever I get will be my only basketball card! >>

same!

rtimmer · February 21, 2015 12:04AM

I'm in for two slots. The math on it looks decent but I'm in it to hit the big one!!

vintagefun · February 21, 2015 4:50AM

Looks like 65 slots left...today's been slow.

jfkheat · February 21, 2015 5:12AM

I just bought two slots. It seems that most slots have been sold to members here. Good luck to everyone.
James

markmac · February 21, 2015 8:56AM

I just bought a slot as well.

bounce · February 21, 2015 12:26PM

This set makes the break look like a pretty good deal

1986 Fleer PSA set - 8.5 avg

slum22 · February 21, 2015 12:36PM

I think the break looks like fun and is fairly valued. The set in your link has a very high asking price for what looks to be a set with stars that have underwhelming centering for the major cards (Jordan, Barkley, Olajuwon, etc.).

Juggs · February 22, 2015 11:09PM

This thing is taking a lot longer to fill than I thought it would.

Davis · February 23, 2015 12:11AM

<< This thing is taking a lot longer to fill than I thought it would. >>

Me too. Hopefully it fills up today as I'm looking forward to seeing how it shakes out. I think people are a little shy paying $38. Blowout did one about a year ago with a very similar set (not as many 9s on the commons) and sold their slots for $28.50.

1986 Fleer Basketball set break - anybody see this? - COUNTDOWN to MJ - 10...9...ZERO! GET READY FO

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