How to value a coin when comps are 5 years old or non-existent?

ggg

Howdy all! I'm stumped on how to value a coin (1880 gold $1 NGC MS64) that has a low mintage of 1600. I've checked the auction archives at several large auctions but the archives range from 5 years ago to almost 10 years ago for a comparative coin. I've even checked on eBay but can' find a similarly graded coin that sold. I've researched the Guide Book of Gold Dollars and the Encyclopedia of U.S. Gold Coins as well as the PCGS price guide. The prices that I can find are all over the map and I'm not sure if that's attributed to so few of them selling at auction, the books being several years old, or for another reason. Thanks to all that can help me figure this out. I'm not so much asking for an exact estimate for this specific coin (but if you have one, please let me know) but on how to value a coin that isn't as common and the archives are few and far between. I know this is the U.S. Coin forum, but I run into this problem on National Bank notes where the National Bank Note Census shows only a few known. Can I assume that any advice on pricing a U.S. Coin with few comps will work for pricing currency too? Thanks again for letting me ramble.

Lakesammman

Good question.

Coinfacts indicates $1100 but all the comps have been selling for more than that since 2003!

coindeuce

Not an exact comp., but a PCGS-64 / CAC gold sold 9/13 Stack's Americana Sale

Unless the NGC-64 you're researching is as nice, then its worth less.

roadrunner

The low mintages are somewhat meaningless for most 1880-1889 unc gold dollars. Large percentages of the mintages were saved, just like the very low mintage quarters and halves of the 1879-1890 period. You'd have to figure that 10-25% of the 1880 mintage was saved, which is HUGE considering that the survival rates just 10-20 years earlier is on the order of 0.2 to 0.5%. Either that, or the official mintage of 1600 is bogus. It doesn't really matter though as the large number of coins available to day makes everything irrelevant. What survives is what counts. It's probably true that Fine-XF examples of the 1880 are probably pretty scarce.

PCGP pop reports show 283 coins in MS65 or higher grades. It's one of the most common $1's in superb gem grade. In MS67 there are over 100 pieces. That's probably enough for every gem $1 gold date set collector in the United States. So an MS64 1880 $1 gold is a slightly better date type coin. It's value is easily found in the CDN, Heritage auction archives, etc. PCGS price guide, etc. Figure around $900-$1300 for a typical MS64. It is also true that most the ones submitted for grading are above MS64. That means most of them were preserved in gem grade from day 1. But that doesn't make MS61-MS64 pieces "rare." A MS64 can't be worth more than a more common (per pops) MS65. It is intriguing that the 1880 has a tiny mintage....but it's also apparent it was more heavily saved than any of the surrounding years. I don't know why an MS64 hasn't shown up at Heritage in 5 years....but there are also dozens of higher grades showing up recently. The 1872-s seated quarter has a mintage 50X greater than the 1880 $1 gold (83,000 vs. 1,600).....and it's probably 2X to 4X rarer in total existing population (<150 in existence).

Here's a CAC MS65 at $1695 a year ago

So $1695 would be the upper limit for even a PQ 64 with green sticker. The coin linked above by Coindeuce is a gold stickered 64PL ogh which opens up another world (PL collectors, gold sticker collectors, etc.). This date probably gets more notoriety than it should based on it's ridiculously low mintage. And a lot of newbie gold collectors will pay more figuring they're getting something for nothing. Considering that generic gold type coins peaked in price in April/May 2006 (at $730/oz gold no less!).....you can't compare prices from that 2004-2006 era to 2013-2015 where gold coins have literally been obliterated. Generic gem small denomination gold coins are down 60-75% since the 2006 peak. This affects the 1880 $1 gold too. Gem $1 golds have come out of the woodwork over the past 10-15 years.

lkeigwin

roadrunner...you can always count on him for sage advice.
Lance.