Where would the card market be now...

BLUEJAYWAY

...if they never overproduced product in the 86-2000 period? Would collectors have been less drawn to the vintage market with their limited surviving condition/mintage, and stayed with the years 86-2000, if the market wasn't so glutted with those years product.Would the result have been not such an influx of higher prices for the vintage, if that $$$ spent on vintage went to the newer product?

charrigan

Related question: why is there the assumption that overproduction has stopped? Dipping into modern I see parallels of parallels,30+ products/year per sport, and a "presumption" of value because of the cost of boxes. Sounds familiar.

WillBBC

<< <i>Related question: why is there the assumption that overproduction has stopped? Dipping into modern I see parallels of parallels,30+ products/year per sport, and a "presumption" of value because of the cost of boxes. Sounds familiar. >>



That's a really good question. They've replaced overproduction with redundant production. I don't mind some manufactured scarcity as they have put out some beautiful cards but when you have product after product offering practically the same Jersey/patch/sock/autograph numbered to 25 and each box is $200+ I just don't understand how these cards maintain value.

FavreFan1971

<< <i>Related question: why is there the assumption that overproduction has stopped? Dipping into modern I see parallels of parallels,30+ products/year per sport, and a "presumption" of value because of the cost of boxes. Sounds familiar. >>



+1

LarkinCollector

<< <i>...if they never overproduced product in the 86-2000 period? Would collectors have been less drawn to the vintage market with their limited surviving condition/mintage, and stayed with the years 86-2000, if the market wasn't so glutted with those years product.Would the result have been not such an influx of higher prices for the vintage, if that $$$ spent on vintage went to the newer product? >>


I think collectors of the overproduction era still enjoy collecting that period and there are many difficult to find issues that are just as scarce as vintage, as many player collectors can attest to (Aqueous and Heads Up test issues are the first that come to mind). Quality was lower as they were cranking out millions of each card, there are still many zero POP 10s in almost all of the base sets of that period, especially the non-white cardstock years toward the early end of that period and/or sets with colored or black borders. I think many people and their money wisely went into vintage, but there are areas of opportunity even for years of gross overproduction that will eventually be recognized.

I've seen newer player collectors with goals of obtaining 200+ 1/1 cards of their favorite player, so even with modern overproduction there still seems to be a market. Other than not qualifying for the registry, I don't see much difference between these and POP 1 PSA10s from earlier years (except knowing that there will never be a POP 2 of a given card). Non-PSA10 (insert your favorite grader/top grade) base cards have been pretty irrelevant since parallels first came out.

itzagoner

where would the card market be now without the myriad numbers of people who bought in at the wrong time due to hype and misconceptions?

some of those people must have reconsidered their strategy and changed course in favor of tougher vintage products. with that in mind, it might be safe to assume that at least a percentage of those people would never have been drawn into the vintage market unless they had screwed up big time and then learned a valuable lesson about the application of smart investments.

the market needed that overproduced garbage to perpetuate other options.

WalterSobchak

<< <i>where would the card market be now without the myriad numbers of people who bought in at the wrong time due to hype and misconceptions?

some of those people must have reconsidered their strategy and changed course in favor of tougher vintage products. >>


*raises hand*

lmf

Yes a lot 80s 90s 00s 10s cards were Are over produced but how about Tiffany s ,refractors nice looking and rare insert especially 90s inserts and auto graphics the very modern cards serialed autos patches jersey s etc will hold value only if the player not the card has the rings accomplishments MVP etc and a hof career. Same as vintage unless it pre war.

Stone193

First, there was a big boom around 1990 and I'm guessing the industry responded to that phenomena.

So, in order to answer any hypotheticals like what you're asking? We might want to start with: "What caused the boom in the first place?"

Another question. Is the demand for vintage over modern a "reaction" to something or just an individual's evolutionary process in the hobby?

It may be a natural process to go from modern to vintage as one enters and evolves in the hobby? That evolution may be a function of becoming more educated - a knowledgable collector is a more savvy collector?

The "hobby" may be viewed as a "tradition" in our culture and IMO traditions are not static but a 'dynamic' process of changes. So, an evolutionary "change" over the past 100 years may have involved a shift from collecting for pure enjoyment to one of ROI - i.e., investment.

I do believe that around 1990 the "Boomers" were hitting their stride - they had children of early collecting ages - they had more money since they were somewhere between 44 and 30-ish
with careers/jobs and could afford to spend on collectibles.

I will guess that over-production and producing too many brands along with expensive box prices probably jaded the (1990's) newcomers and discouraged them from staying in the hobby?

These are just some ideas - I have no idea what happened.

Stingray

I always heard that Topps cut production starting in 95 because of the players strike the year before, expecting less interest.

lmf

The prices for vintage are due to the grading market as well the registry ,, vintage players had the career had the connection with the fans had the life time to show character etc. modern players are way risky to collect as far as value, to much media to catch the nonsense then broadcast it everywhere in a split second.now days even the kids collecting see that ,plus the overall market is more savvy due to overproduction of cards and underproduction of great all around players. So it's not hard to see why vintage has become the safe harbor, modern day guys like jeter ,manning ,Jordan, Gretzky etc are the exception not the rule. My much younger brothers spend more money on apps ,phones video games etc, when I give them cards they look at me sideways.

Indy78

So, in order to answer any hypotheticals like what you're asking? We might want to start with: "What caused the boom in the first place?"

My thoughts exactly. It seems to me that the overproduction was a reaction to a market that largely went from buying cards for the sheer enjoyment of the cards themselves to buying the cards for their current and future monetary value. It continues that way today for the most part, and I have no problems admitting that I largely collect pre-1986 regular issue cards not because they are better looking or better quality than post 1986 regular issue cards (in many, many cases, they are not IMO), but because they have monetary value and IMO a greater potential to hold that value. Maybe the better question is where would the card "market" be today if price guides didn't become prevalent in the late 70's/early 80's? Of course, one may have to dig deeper than that and ask why did the price guides come into being in the first place?

PSASAP

Off topic, but in comparing pre-boom (before 1990) and post-boom (everything after 1990), there is an inherent risk involved in buying some of the more recent rookie cards that just doesn't exist with vintage. The most glaring example is, of course, the 1994 SP ARod rookie. This is a card that has seen selling prices decline around 90% in the last four years, the very definition of a market crash. The closest comparison in vintage is probably the O.J. Simpson rookie, but even that card didn't take the same percentage hit as the ARod.

MrNearMint

<< <i>

<< <i>Related question: why is there the assumption that overproduction has stopped? Dipping into modern I see parallels of parallels,30+ products/year per sport, and a "presumption" of value because of the cost of boxes. Sounds familiar. >>



That's a really good question. They've replaced overproduction with redundant production. I don't mind some manufactured scarcity as they have put out some beautiful cards but when you have product after product offering practically the same Jersey/patch/sock/autograph numbered to 25 and each box is $200+ I just don't understand how these cards maintain value. >>





+ 1
Couldn't agree more.

I think there definitely could be a small shift in the overall direction that collectors go. I think years like 80-83, and 85 would probably be more collectible/expensive. 86-89 there really isn't much rookie power (besides 89) which would probably be a lot more desired if there wasn't so much of it. But I think it all could be more desired then it is currently. Imo vintage will always be king and would still take precedence over anything else.
Good question!

PMKAY

<< <i>

<< <i>Related question: why is there the assumption that overproduction has stopped? Dipping into modern I see parallels of parallels,30+ products/year per sport, and a "presumption" of value because of the cost of boxes. Sounds familiar. >>



+1 >>



Great point on the presumption of value because of the cost of the boxes. Sure we all hear about that hits that allow people to double (or more) the cost of a $200 (or more) box of a new product but most often you end up with cards that are worth much less than half the cost of the box and quite often you better sell them quickly to even get that much back. I love ripping packs and I love selling cards and of course I love making a profit and I learned shortly after I got back into the hobby seven years ago that the best way for me to do that is to buy low end product.

dontippet

My observation:

Back in the late 80's, when a player made it into the HOF, their rookie card would increase to $200. I remember in '89, I believe, when Jim Palmer made it, his '66 rookie went up to $200. It was only 23 years old at the time. Without the overproduction, I wonder what the Biggio's, etc... would be worth today. I am currently selling them for under a buck apiece.

dtkk49a

A lot of the big players from that era turned out to be PED abusers - so even if there was lower production during that timeframe, a lot of the big star cards would still have lost their value.

KendallCat

I remember as a young teenager having some friends who collected back in the early to mid 80's(83-85h, and this was back when minor league players did not have cards or scouting reports - you had to grab a Baseball America and do research. These friends did not play ball but researched players and would find guys coming up as rookies in the bigs and grab their cards for 5-10 cents each. They would pick up Wade Boggs because of what he did at Pawtucket or Mattingly based on his stats in Columbus. They would have binders with page after page of each guy, and I remember seeing Gooden, Strawberry, Sandberg, Gwynn... These were the guys that you would buy and hold.

It was a gotta strategy and for a while having a bunch of Canseco or McGwire or Bonds cards proved to be very smart; however, in the last 15-20 years that move does not seem to rival investing in Apple or Dell like everyone would have thought it would. PED's along with dog fighting rings(Vick) and other transgressions have derailed a lot of collectors and investors. I was told a long time ago collect things because you enjoy them even if they were worth $0, and if they go up in value that is a bonus.

swish54

<< <i>Off topic, but in comparing pre-boom (before 1990) and post-boom (everything after 1990), there is an inherent risk involved in buying some of the more recent rookie cards that just doesn't exist with vintage. The most glaring example is, of course, the 1994 SP ARod rookie. This is a card that has seen selling prices decline around 90% in the last four years, the very definition of a market crash. The closest comparison in vintage is probably the O.J. Simpson rookie, but even that card didn't take the same percentage hit as the ARod. >>



This is a card that has seen selling prices decline around 90% in the last four years, the very definition of a market crash.

I disagree. His card prices have gone down the last four years due to him getting caught multiple times in lies about PED usage...not a market collapse.

PSASAP

I think you misunderstood what I was saying. I didn't mean the the entire market for modern cards collapsed, I meant the market for ARod SP rookies collapsed. And yes, it was due to PED use. The point I was making is that the modern card market has risks, like being caught using PED's, that the vintage card market just doesn't have.

ReggieCleveland

There's so many variables to consider, it's overwhelming.

I'm curious to see what the child collectors of the late-80s do when they re-enter the hobby. Every era gets the boost from adults with disposable income coming back to chase their childhood collections. While the era was fraught with overproduction, it also probably contained the largest number of child collectors ever, up to and including now. The fact that just about everything from the era is dirt cheap now may aid the adults in returning. It would be great to see a massive resurgence of this era where many people are collecting and everything is still inexpensive. That would be a lot of fun.

itzagoner

<< <i>The fact that just about everything from the era is dirt cheap now may aid the adults in returning. It would be great to see a massive resurgence of this era where many people are collecting and everything is still inexpensive. That would be a lot of fun. >>



this is what such "overproduction" has led to. the majority of products will remain affordable and that's a good thing.

swish54

<< <i>I think you misunderstood what I was saying. I didn't mean the the entire market for modern cards collapsed, I meant the market for ARod SP rookies collapsed. And yes, it was due to PED use. The point I was making is that the modern card market has risks, like being caught using PED's, that the vintage card market just doesn't have. >>



Yes I misunderstood. Makes more sense now.