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Anyone notice. . .

derrybderryb Posts: 36,824 ✭✭✭✭✭
. . . the 19% increase in US natural gas the past two days?

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"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

Comments

  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭
    Prolly not, cause all they watch is manipulated stuff...
    Now if u got a story to go with it, then maybe u can get somethin goin...
    keceph `anah
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  • carew4mecarew4me Posts: 3,471 ✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Prolly not, cause all they watch is manipulated stuff...
    Now if u got a story to go with it, then maybe u can get somethin goin... >>



    Then YOU have failed us all. We rely on you to educate us and save us from ourselves. Where have you gone Joe DiMaggio?

    Loves me some shiny!
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Every since the $6.40's peak the nat gas bulls have been calling each bounce the start of the next BIG wave. There have been 3 failed bounces so far. It may still get to $2.50 to match the symmetry low of 2009.....or maybe the correction is finally over. Currently sitting well below a 2 year failed head and shoulders neckline where a bounce to $3.75ish would be normal.......NG still has a lot of recovery work to do. And if oil is headed into the the $30's or even $20's (who knows), it's not likely nat gas will put in a counter rally.

    Nat gas weekly chart

    Nat gas is a bear to call. But I think it still has one more leg down in this sequence since November. And whenever a bottom has been or was made, it should still retest it. The $3.55-$4.60+ Oct-Nov rally looked pretty good for a while, then broke down after retesting the 2 year uptrend line from the 2012 bottom. I have no skin in this game.....just watching for fun.

    Daily chart
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • GrumpyEdGrumpyEd Posts: 4,749 ✭✭✭
    Not sure how it matters for US nat gas since I doubt there is infrastructure to get it to the EU fast but the timing looks right for it to be caused by this:


    Forbes article
    Ed
  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭
    Only thing I noticed was the biggest choke in sports history...
    keceph `anah
  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 31,082 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Only thing I noticed was the biggest choke in sports history... >>



    Yep, anything that could go wrong did go wrong.
    theknowitalltroll;
  • dpooledpoole Posts: 5,940 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Only thing I noticed was the biggest choke in sports history... >>



    I shut the thing off with five minutes left after Seattle threw another interception, and two- touchdowns needed to win... I missed The Come Back of the Year!

    Reminds me of when I sold my Dell $10 IPO for $13. image
  • piecesofmepiecesofme Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭
    Only thing I noticed was the biggest choke in sports history...

    When you play not to lose, more often than not that's what ends up happening. Wifes family is mostly GB fans and boy are they ever crying on FB right now LOL.
    To forgive is to free a prisoner, and to discover that prisoner was you.
  • grote15grote15 Posts: 29,693 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Only thing I noticed was the biggest choke in sports history...

    When you play not to lose, more often than not that's what ends up happening. Wifes family is mostly GB fans and boy are they ever crying on FB right now LOL. >>



    Agreed. GB played not to lose and Sea played to win.

    I just want to know why the GB safety goes down on his own when he had 30 yds in front of him?? Did he think the game was over??

    Monumental choke job.


    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,129 ✭✭✭✭✭
    .....that Nat gas is down 50% from a year ago when everyone was complaining that it was winter and cold and proclaiming "if this aint inflation I don't know what is!!"
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,294 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Recenlty been pricing image kitchens. image
  • OnlyGoldIsMoneyOnlyGoldIsMoney Posts: 3,365 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Off my radar screen as I heat with wood and the nearest natural gas lines are miles away.
  • seebelowseebelow Posts: 1,643 ✭✭✭
    Unseasonably warm here.
    Interested in higher grade vintage cards. Aren't we all. image
  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭
    Yuuuuuuppp, global warming, global cooling, the end is near.... Whichever gets one into the pockets of the people...for the longest... Wins...
    keceph `anah
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,856 ✭✭✭✭✭
    .....that Nat gas is down 50% from a year ago when everyone was complaining that it was winter and cold and proclaiming "if this aint inflation I don't know what is!!"

    You might be thinking of the squeeze in propane, but either way it was a nasty price increase, and as I recall there were some who didn't include it as part of the inflation equation. That's pretty ridiculous, in my ever-so-humble opinion. It had a major percentage impact on my home expenses for the year. It doesn't qualify as monetary inflation, but it sure did qualify as an increased expense - which is the end result of monetary inflation.

    I didn't expect a major drop in commodity prices to happen across the board. That's been a surprise. Then again, I didn't expect interest rates to be forced down to these low levels with so much QE over such a long period of time. These two phenomena run counter to each other, so nothing seems to make sense in terms of classical analysis. It seems to tell me that a major sinkhole exists in the world of finance, and I think it's the negative valuations that still exist on major banking balance sheets, being paid off by taxpayers gradually with new money creation.

    I don't know what to make of the volatility in natgas either, but let's see if the price increases stick before making any assumptions on a new trend in commodities.

    I'm leaning toward Martin Armstrong's interpretations of global money flows. Since I'm not in position to play in the currency futures markets, I still favor an unleveraged approach in hedging metals holdings with some cash and aggressive debt repayment. I don't think its a good time to have borrowed dollars, but I also think that we haven't even begun to see real volatility.

    At some point, that gold and cash is going to come in pretty handy. My opinion.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,129 ✭✭✭✭✭
    but it sure did qualify as an increased expense - which is the end result of monetary inflation.

    Yes-no.

    The price would have increased had not even 1 single dollar been created. The price went up because people wanted it. They dont want it so much now so price is down 50%.

    Some think its ridiculous that oil dropped 50% with only a slight increase in supply (or slight decrease in demand). Well, here is another example of the inelasticity of commodities. This is also why silver can collapse with only a slight decrease in demand (or even a slight decrease in the growth of demand).



    , I didn't expect interest rates to be forced down to these low levels with so much QE over such a long period of time. These two phenomena run counter to each other, so nothing seems to make sense in terms of classical analysis.

    If you understood markets and economics better it would all make perfect sense. Im not calling you stupid or ignorant. Economics is something where almost everyone knows just about the same. And since we know just as much as the other guy we think we know all there is to know. Its an interesting field of study that garners much contempt, which I find it fascinating.

    Why did we have QE?---To replace money that the banks created and subsequently lost--a deflationary event.
    Why have prices kept falling? "They" didnt print enough money--it has been a steady stream, but not a flood.
    Rates are not "forced" down. They have been demanded lower by the market as it knows deflation has not/would not be conquered via QE.

    Classical analysis is alive and well, just as it was 5 years ago and written in this forum.



    I don't know what to make of the volatility in natgas either, but let's see if the price increases stick before making any assumptions on a new trend in commodities.

    This is exactly what I mean. The OP shows a chart about nat gas going up quickly in 2 days. Then someone else makes a comment about prices down 50% in the last year. And you talk about a "new trend". Look at this chart. There is no new trend---only the same one thats been in place for 5 years. No manipulation, no conspiracy.



    image



    At some point, that gold and cash is going to come in pretty handy

    Agreed. As it always has.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Frack me!
  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭
    Yep, unfracking real...
    keceph `anah
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,856 ✭✭✭✭✭
    What I said was:

    "I didn't expect a major drop in commodity prices to happen across the board. That's been a surprise. Then again, I didn't expect interest rates to be forced down to these low levels with so much QE over such a long period of time. These two phenomena run counter to each other"n

    Commodity prices vs. interest rates/QE. And interest rates certainly ARE forced down by bond sales/money creation.

    What you said was:

    Rates are not "forced" down. They have been demanded lower by the market as it knows deflation has not/would not be conquered via QE.

    I disagree. I would argue that it wasn't demand at all, but supply that forced rates down. Demand for bonds didn't drop. The demand was overwhelmed by supply already. But essentially, there wasn't all that much demand anyhow (until the mystery bond buyer in Belgium showed up).

    Why did we have QE?---To replace money that the banks created and subsequently lost--a deflationary event.
    Why have prices kept falling? "They" didnt print enough money--it has been a steady stream, but not a flood.


    Yup.

    Rates are not "forced" down. They have been demanded lower by the market as it knows deflation has not/would not be conquered via QE.

    You and I both know that they're going to be forced into printing until the system fracks. Nobody knows how big the banking debt wormhole really is, so how would they know how much QE to do? Answer - they don't.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,129 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I disagree. I would argue that it wasn't demand at all, but supply that forced rates down. Demand for bonds didn't drop. The demand was overwhelmed by supply already


    Say what? Yields go down when prices go up. Prices go up because there are more buyers than sellers. So are you really saying that there wasnt enough supply to meet the demand? If so, then why we talk about the mysterious Belgium buyer? Why create a false buyer (more demand)? I thought the story around this Belgium buyer was that the US couldnt sell its bonds (too much supply).

    Im confused.


    Nobody knows how big the banking debt wormhole really is, so how would they know how much QE to do?

    So then the prospect of imminent interest rate increases is about nil?
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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