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The commodity pain may be peaking....unless...
cohodk
Posts: 18,622 ✭✭✭✭✭
The dollar is right up against a horizontal price resistance and a long term downtrend line----on a LOGARITHMIC scale. If this is the chart the market wants to follow then there should be some decent resistance to a stronger dollar.....at least for now. Is there anything in the global economy that might keep the dollar in its long term down trend against other currencies?
However, if we change the scaling we see the long term down trend has already been broken and the dollar has only the horizontal line to contend with. After a little backing and filling, it could be off to the races. Is there anything in the global economy that might keep the dollar from continuing to gain strength against other currencies?
However, if we change the scaling we see the long term down trend has already been broken and the dollar has only the horizontal line to contend with. After a little backing and filling, it could be off to the races. Is there anything in the global economy that might keep the dollar from continuing to gain strength against other currencies?
Excuses are tools of the ignorant
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
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Not against Japan or the ruble or the euro or Aud or Can
<< <i> Is there anything in the global economy that might keep the dollar in its long term down trend against other currencies? >>
As alsway, FED policy - once the slam to oil has fulfilled its global mission. The currency war has not ended. It is on hold while dollar reserve status gets re-established. Oil prices are the new weapon of choice where sanctions fail and military intervention carries too high of a cost. Look for the dollar index to break 100 before anything changes. Look for a 10% reduction in PMs to follow suit.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
wai... wha?? Isn't it demand from central banks, from the public in China and India and the rest of the world, including US investors, that was the main driver of gold prices?
is there ever such a thing as "having enough gold"?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>When does this 10% reduction in the PM sector begin, and from what level? Does this mean it is impossible for the dollar and Gold to move up together? I thought it was the USD/YEN and USD/AUD pairs (along with real interest rates and debt ratios) that are the main drivers of the gold price over the past 3-14 years. I think the dollar gets a well-deserved rest by the 92-94 range and retraces some of the chart symmetry from 2003-2005. 85 would be a logical retest level. >>
First half of 2015 will be a continuation. 100 dollar index, 10% reduction from current PM price levels. Second half of 2015 the central financial planning dominoes will begin to fall. Fact that dollar index and gold are currently moving together is a temporary anomaly and proof that dollar index does not equal dollar value.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
<< <i> I thought it was the USD/YEN and USD/AUD pairs (along with real interest rates and debt ratios) that are the main drivers of the gold price over the past 3-14 years.
wai... wha?? Isn't it demand from central banks, from the public in China and India and the rest of the world, including US investors, that was the main driver of gold prices?
is there ever such a thing as "having enough gold"? >>
It's not always about supply vs. demand once the big boyz start throwing punches. Look at oil from July 2008 - January 2009 or in the last half of 2014. I mentioned those currency pairs above because they best reflect the monthly movements over the past 14 years. Must be more than coincidence. The mirror gold much more closely than just the USD. But, I would admit that things like CB gold demand, interest rates, and other inputs are wrapped up in those currency crosses. Those currency crosses allow some serious carry trades to exist for long periods of time. Central banks and Asians would probably argue that you could never have enough gold. Other than the USA and maybe Canada I can't think of any other central banks that wouldn't want more gold if it were offered to them in exchange for paper assets. Germany still wants its 700 tonnes of gold back. Until that happens, I'd say the CB's can't get enough gold among themselves. And it would seem they have trouble locating the gold they do have.....lol.
Today PM's are up and so is the dollar , thats a little unusual
Knowledge is the enemy of fear