HA NYINC Sale

pruebas · January 4, 2015 1:11PM

Results seemed weak overall so far....

JCMhouston · January 4, 2015 1:21PM

Agreed, very few things seemed to even reach the estimates, it looks very weak to me. I only saw a couple of pieces that had a strong runaway price, mostly very tame.

I thought some of the pieces had extremely strong reserves on them also, and noted that quite a few didn't sell.

Zohar · January 4, 2015 1:24PM

Its one of the only times I had seen most pieces set with high reserves. Perhaps dealers consigning fearing a failed sale? Some very nice pieces I was tracking had 1 or 2 bidders in total.

MilkmanDan · January 4, 2015 1:43PM

I have more coins on my watch list than I ever have, so I don't mind the weak results. The high reserves, however, have crossed a decent number others off my list. I think you're onto something...fear in the air?

Zohar · January 4, 2015 2:01PM

Stronger dollar, decimated Russian Rubel, Robust/or not China....?

pruebas · January 4, 2015 2:09PM

Over the past 15 years, my coin horizons have greatly expanded, but strangely there is little in this auction that interests me.

And what I did find interesting was mostly off-quality.

I'm finding that with next week's SBP sale as well.

If enough other people feel this way, that may be the reason prices seem down.

EVillageProwler · January 4, 2015 2:24PM

It doesn't bode well when there are few bidders. But, I think there may be another aggravating factor: very few of the coins were special.

Of course, I'm just talking about the stuff I care about. Too many coins were either from stale dealer inventory or just meh for the grade. The Brunswick 2T didn't go cheap. But it was one I hadn't seen floating around before. The Sede Vacante in 64 is a nice coin but fully reserved for a stale coin and understandably went unsold. The E1 1/2 Cr in AU50 is ex-EPN and was reserved fully and stale too. Unsold. I saw many expensive GB gold that were just dipped product. The gold Trier was just ok for the grade. I saw lots of coins go for product money.

Of course, the dearth of bidders also allowed some nice coins to go for less than full value. I think my Friedberg could've gone for fuller money if it were a full crown. I'm shocked the W&M 1/2 Cr in 62 didn't go for at least $1k more. It's a scarce coin in any grade let alone in unc. The Anne 1/2 Cr in 63 wasn't a bargain nor did it fetch moon money. It's a tough coin, especially in unc. It's also original and attractive.

EVP

jayPem · January 4, 2015 2:28PM

Really wish I could report the same...the one I wanted went strong. I was only in with a wishful thinking bid though, it wound up just past the high estimate and mine was well below that

cwt · January 4, 2015 4:36PM

British coins in general seemed quite weak.

EVillageProwler · January 4, 2015 8:00PM

<< Stronger dollar, decimated Russian Rubel, Robust/or not China....? >>

China is doing ok still, but Yen, Rouble, Euro and GBP are all down against the USD. Maybe Z is correct; wouldn't surprise me at all if HA has a strong international book.

My wife and I are thinking of taking a gastronomic vacation in Tokyo in a couple of months to take advantage of the 20% currency swing.

EVP

EVillageProwler · January 4, 2015 8:10PM

Strange, but lot 29553, the Sede Vacante in 64 did end up selling with 2 bidders. I guess I got confused. Still sold for not much though...

worldcoinguy · January 4, 2015 10:35PM

What makes the sede vacante taler in 64 (lot 29553) stale? Sometimes I don't understand comments like that. I'm just curious.

Zohar · January 4, 2015 10:59PM

I saw it in hand and it is a wonderful coin which I could see many getting excited over it. In interpreting EVP's comments which I had heard regarding my Austrian theme - stale=EVP doesn't collect/like it.

EVillageProwler · January 5, 2015 12:55AM

Stale just means not fresh, so a lack of, or reduced, buzz surrounding the coin.

What makes an auction great for the consignor is if the material is able to drive the bidders into a gotta-have-it frenzy. That is more likely to happen with perceived fresh material. An item that's been long ignored by the buying masses will continue to be ignored, if for no other reason than psychology: what's wrong with it, why should I have it, etc.

I know that coin well. I've been tempted to buy it several times. If I had more money and fewer other coins on my radar, I may have thrown in a bid or two on it. But, this isn't about me. I was trying to explain the lack of bidders. If it were me, I'd always troll the auction sites looking for perceived stale coins that are otherwise very nice. But, don't forget that Zohar and I were able to view that coin in hand. Others many not have been able to do so, and thus maybe relied on general market perception of it. AKA, stale.

I know the consignor. He has a great eye, great knowledge and works hard for his business. I wish he had done better on that coin as well as overall. But, things are the way they are.

EVP

Zohar · January 5, 2015 1:05AM

That coin is great. I believe that without a reserve it would have gotten more bidders in.

EVillageProwler · January 5, 2015 1:46AM

<< That coin is great. I believe that without a reserve it would have gotten more bidders in. >>

Yes, that is my belief too.

7Jaguars · January 5, 2015 4:49AM

Wow, New Zealand went super low....Like, half estimate on the low side.

pruebas · January 5, 2015 5:24AM

Mexico did very well. In fact, most of Latin America did decently.

Russia isn't (as expected).

JCMhouston · January 5, 2015 5:53AM

<< Wow, New Zealand went super low....Like, half estimate on the low side. >>

Australia too!

EVillageProwler · January 5, 2015 6:02AM

<< Russia isn't (as expected). >>

Most of the Peter I pieces went so cheap. An Empress Elizabeth copper in 62BN that I was eyeing went cheap and I was distracted by work at the time. Whew! I lucked out on that one.

Zohar · January 5, 2015 6:28AM

Damn - Russian consignors must be beating themselves up!

SmEagle1795 · January 5, 2015 9:17AM

I unexpectedly have won three fairly significant and historic ancient coins on impulse buys in the auction so far, identifying that they were about to close for far less than they previously sold for. It should help offset the coins I will be overpaying for tomorrow at CNG

bidask · January 5, 2015 9:38AM

<< British coins in general seemed quite weak. >>

So did the French coins seem weak.

bidask · January 5, 2015 9:59AM

<< I unexpectedly have won three fairly significant and historic ancient coins on impulse buys in the auction so far, identifying that they were about to close for far less than they previously sold for. It should help offset the coins I will be overpaying for tomorrow at CNG

>>

What did you think of this coin ....lot 30961 ?

Vespasian (AD 69-79). AV aureus (20mm, 6.52 gm, 5h). Judaea Capta issue. Rome, late AD 69-early AD 70. IMP CAESAR VESPASIANVS AVG, laureate head of Vespasian right / Military trophy with cuirass, helmet, greaves and two shields, before which sits female Jewish captive right in attitude of mourning, IVDAEA in exergue. RIC 1. Hendin 1464. Rare and highly sought-after. NGC Fine 5/5 - 3/5.

The IVDAEA CAPTA coinage series was the broadest and most diverse issue of coins celebrating a Roman victory issued up to that time, comprising coins of every metal, denomination, and mint. They formed an important part of the overall propaganda campaign establishing the legitimacy of the Flavian dynasty. The new edition of Roman Imperial Coinage lists this rare aureus as the first struck in Rome by Vespasian once his forces had seized control of the capital in December of AD 69.

I thought it went cheap though I know very little about ancient coins.

RobP · January 5, 2015 10:05AM

I didn't think there was a great deal to shout about in the sale from the British coins viewpoint and what quality there was was quite highly priced.

I was interested in a couple of things - the Newark 9d because it used to be mine, but note that now in a slab it has lost its provenance of Lingford and Hird because there is nowhere to keep coin tickets with the plastic. That went for close to retail value.

The Peck 924 (lot 29616) would have been alright if it hadn't suffered a bout of grade inflation in the last few years. It was slabbed 65, whereas it had happily sat in a 63 slab for a considerable period up to the last time it was sold in CNG. It didn't come anywhere close to the example sold by CNG in recent times, though the new grade boosted the price to somewhere close. i.e. overpriced and bought on number rather than content.

EVillageProwler · January 5, 2015 10:06AM

Lot 31051, a Chinese coin, hammered at $97500 on an estimate of (I think) 30k to $40k. Ouch!

bidask · January 5, 2015 10:11AM

Cuban coins are strong tonight.

SmEagle1795 · January 5, 2015 10:16AM

<< What did you think of this coin ....lot 30961 ?

Vespasian (AD 69-79). AV aureus (20mm, 6.52 gm, 5h). Judaea Capta issue. Rome, late AD 69-early AD 70. IMP CAESAR VESPASIANVS AVG, laureate head of Vespasian right / Military trophy with cuirass, helmet, greaves and two shields, before which sits female Jewish captive right in attitude of mourning, IVDAEA in exergue. RIC 1. Hendin 1464. Rare and highly sought-after. NGC Fine 5/5 - 3/5.

The IVDAEA CAPTA coinage series was the broadest and most diverse issue of coins celebrating a Roman victory issued up to that time, comprising coins of every metal, denomination, and mint. They formed an important part of the overall propaganda campaign establishing the legitimacy of the Flavian dynasty. The new edition of Roman Imperial Coinage lists this rare aureus as the first struck in Rome by Vespasian once his forces had seized control of the capital in December of AD 69.

I thought it went cheap though I know very little about ancient coins. >>

I think that went for a fair price - not dirt cheap but not very strong. Lower-grade examples like this coin are hard to price as it appeals to a different group of collectors than who normally try to assemble sets of aurei. Heritage was a bit overly enthusiastic about its rarity, though, but it is definitely desirable.

bidask · January 5, 2015 10:34AM

<< 

<< What did you think of this coin ....lot 30961 ?

Vespasian (AD 69-79). AV aureus (20mm, 6.52 gm, 5h). Judaea Capta issue. Rome, late AD 69-early AD 70. IMP CAESAR VESPASIANVS AVG, laureate head of Vespasian right / Military trophy with cuirass, helmet, greaves and two shields, before which sits female Jewish captive right in attitude of mourning, IVDAEA in exergue. RIC 1. Hendin 1464. Rare and highly sought-after. NGC Fine 5/5 - 3/5.

The IVDAEA CAPTA coinage series was the broadest and most diverse issue of coins celebrating a Roman victory issued up to that time, comprising coins of every metal, denomination, and mint. They formed an important part of the overall propaganda campaign establishing the legitimacy of the Flavian dynasty. The new edition of Roman Imperial Coinage lists this rare aureus as the first struck in Rome by Vespasian once his forces had seized control of the capital in December of AD 69.

I thought it went cheap though I know very little about ancient coins. >>

I think that went for a fair price - not dirt cheap but not very strong. Lower-grade examples like this coin are hard to price as it appeals to a different group of collectors than who normally try to assemble sets of aurei. Heritage was a bit overly enthusiastic about its rarity, though, but it is definitely desirable. >>

Thank you.

Just curious......what would a high grade specimen of this type be worth or bring at auction?

coinkat · January 5, 2015 11:13AM

My efforts failed- lost three coins. I was serious about two. Life goes on.

And speaking of British, there were two crowns that I thought did rather well- A 1688 8/7 Crown graded MS63 by PCGS and a 1695 crown graded MS64 by NGC.

EVillageProwler · January 5, 2015 12:29PM

I really, REALLY, wish I collect Russian coins. I tracked two very nice Pavl I pieces, a Poltina in 65 and Rouble in 62. Both very nice pieces, and both sold for spit. I was tempted to bid on both, but restrained myself.

EVP

worldcoinguy · January 5, 2015 12:38PM

There were certainly some Russian pieces to behold. The albertus rouble (lot 31280) was nice for AU-50, and went well under estimate. The 1798 1/2 rouble in 65 was amazing as was the 1799 paul rouble in 62. The 1797 heavy rouble is very cool but I do not think I could have lived with the scratch.

Nap · January 5, 2015 12:51PM

Alas, saving for a house and must curtail my spending.

Probably will not bid on anything at all.

Zohar · January 5, 2015 1:01PM

Isn't this cool?

EVillageProwler · January 5, 2015 1:05PM

Question for all: many nice coins sold for much less than we expected. Do we think it's a correction to a more acceptable level, or an actual crash due to various external factors? That is, do we think prices tonight are actually reasonable because they had been inflated, or are they actually bargains?

EVP

Zohar · January 5, 2015 1:16PM

I think that it mirrors the commodities collapse, strengthening of the dollar along with a significant stock market run-up which sucked up disposable income/investment income while weakening foreign purchasing power. Certain segments hurt more (i.e. Russia) due to geopolitical forces while the Chinese market ramp is still not as predictable. From my perspective, I do not see European recovery anytime soon.

Let's also see what happens when the stock market/dollar deflate. May take some time though given Fed support for lower rates. Coins did well in 2008-2010/1 when fear maxed yet as opposed to oil or IPOs, nice coins are no longer manufactured which is why this shouldn't matter long term.

JCMhouston · January 5, 2015 1:37PM

<< Do we think it's a correction to a more acceptable level, or an actual crash due to various external factors? That is, do we think prices tonight are actually reasonable because they had been inflated, or are they actually bargains? >>

Well that's a good question. My hope is world coins are getting back to a more reasonable level, for the past 3-5 years prices have gone completely insane from my viewpoint. Prices have been going up 20-50% a year in many cases, and that's simply unsustainable over the long run.

On top of that the Rouble is worthless this year and the Euro is tanking pretty badly against the dollar. Perhaps a perfect storm that can be used to advantage for a period of time, or perhaps a permanent reduction, I certainly don't know. What I do know is that as a collector it's putting coins back down in my price range that wouldn't be if the market had kept going up as fast as it has been. If the 1787 Proof Shilling Sunday had sold like it would have in 2012- mid 2014 I probably wouldn't own it today, or if I did it would have eaten up 100% of my NYINC budget, and been more than I am really comfortable spending on one coin.

I think of myself as a pretty much mid-level collector, I have more to spend than some people and less than many others, but it was getting to the point that someone like me couldn't buy a lot of the normal mainstream coins that really aren't rare at all. And it's always been the case that a lot of the oddball junk (sorry, I meant "rare esoteric numismatic material") I collect is fairly low priced. I mean how many people really collect Geo. III patterns? Or care about Proof of Record coins? So even though they used to be extremely cheap for their rarity, during this past 5 year period the prices have risen to more than I really think they are worth.

Zohar · January 5, 2015 1:45PM

Jeff - very good points. I believe the auction houses have this information - who has left the market - is it the emerging market buyers? Is it the US collector/investor who found a better investment? Is it a drop in general numismatic interest? My gut tells me that this time around its Russia/Europe and a strong dollar.

One other factor which I believe drove up prices is the Internet, imaging and social media. Anyone can see the coin, image, research and bid for it. Used to be far more localized in a coin shop which no longer exists in the same form. Very few "finds", especially when one looks at scarcer specimens. Auctions get the breadth of their consignments from dealers. How many top end coins sit in dealers inventories nowadays? Very few. They realized that the auction path is the better way of marketing a coin vs. hunting for clients. What this means is that it takes 2 bidders that want what you want to drive up the price.

SmEagle1795 · January 5, 2015 2:28PM

<< 

<< 

<< What did you think of this coin ....lot 30961 ?

Vespasian (AD 69-79). AV aureus (20mm, 6.52 gm, 5h). Judaea Capta issue. Rome, late AD 69-early AD 70. IMP CAESAR VESPASIANVS AVG, laureate head of Vespasian right / Military trophy with cuirass, helmet, greaves and two shields, before which sits female Jewish captive right in attitude of mourning, IVDAEA in exergue. RIC 1. Hendin 1464. Rare and highly sought-after. NGC Fine 5/5 - 3/5.

The IVDAEA CAPTA coinage series was the broadest and most diverse issue of coins celebrating a Roman victory issued up to that time, comprising coins of every metal, denomination, and mint. They formed an important part of the overall propaganda campaign establishing the legitimacy of the Flavian dynasty. The new edition of Roman Imperial Coinage lists this rare aureus as the first struck in Rome by Vespasian once his forces had seized control of the capital in December of AD 69.

I thought it went cheap though I know very little about ancient coins. >>

I think that went for a fair price - not dirt cheap but not very strong. Lower-grade examples like this coin are hard to price as it appeals to a different group of collectors than who normally try to assemble sets of aurei. Heritage was a bit overly enthusiastic about its rarity, though, but it is definitely desirable. >>

Thank you.

Just curious......what would a high grade specimen of this type be worth or bring at auction? >>

VF tends to bring $15-20K, EF 40K and higher depending on just how nice it is.

SmEagle1795 · January 5, 2015 2:29PM

<< Question for all: many nice coins sold for much less than we expected. Do we think it's a correction to a more acceptable level, or an actual crash due to various external factors? That is, do we think prices tonight are actually reasonable because they had been inflated, or are they actually bargains? >>

In ancients, I think prices were weak tonight because tomorrow's CNG auction is massive. I don't know if that's true for world coins as well in this series of auctions but I am outbid on 90% of the coins I'm after at CNG but won everything dirt cheap tonight at Heritage. That would indicate that there isn't anything wrong with the market but is instead a matter of timing and sequencing.

coinkat · January 5, 2015 7:56PM

It seems that is too much being offered over a short period of time and the so-called market is having trouble absorbing it all. As an example, look at the British offerings combined between the major auctions. The total number of British lots is substantial.

Then, factor the other points already mentioned and one can argue and conclude that prices are just not sustainable

EVillageProwler · January 5, 2015 7:56PM

Assuming SE1795 is correct, that means that the Markov sale hurt HA Russian consignments and the SB Rockaway consignment hurt the HA talers? Most of the HA GB stuff weren't that exciting anyway, even the Law and Empire coins.

Timing, economy, geo-politics, quality of material, natural correction - a perfect storm?

We'll see how CNG, Markov/Baldwin's/Goldberg and SB do. I'll also chat up my dealer contacts at the show.

EVP

Zohar · January 5, 2015 8:53PM

EVP - we have seen softening for quite some time, even in prior HA auctions. The magnitude this time is significant. This asset is not neutral to global economic trends.

7Jaguars · January 5, 2015 10:19PM

Though I love ancients, I haven't been "in to them for a while" so no comment.

I do note in the Brit series that there was the obvious highpoint of the Una going for 250k with the juice and the usual bit of fancy Late Vicky and earlier 19th C. gold going high.

A very interesting trend, at least to me, is the relative decline in value of rarer bits in the copper, silver, and occasionally the gold in comparison to "hyper graded" commoner bits. I had pointed this trend out earlier with regards to the year ago (or so) sale of the 1889 small head shilling in MS66 (!!!!!) going for less than 2k, when common dates in same or higher grades were not mere fractions of this despite greater availability IMO.
In this sale an 1850 half sov in MS63+ (perhaps actually nicer than that ) went for less than an MS65 1869 - I just can not fathom this as the former is far more rare and especially in anything like that state of preservation.

The 1864 pennies in 64+ and 65 RB went for low and unsold for the plain and crosslet types and this for one of the very much better dates in the Loved Bunhead series. What does that portend? Other than a couple of collectors in the extreme upper fringe, there is some possibility of this series headed down (many of the proofs IMO suffered pricewise as well).

zompels · January 6, 2015 5:20AM

I am socked from the Hot Demand and High Prices of British Coins ........copper pieces , Some Crowns and specially High Grade Gold pieces where Limit up to this auction.............I saw 1911 5 pound,Gold Georgivs V , NGC PF66CAMEO sold for almost $20K

SmEagle1795 · January 6, 2015 6:20AM

As evidence for the conclusions in my previous post, I was outbid on 19 out of 20 lots at CNG today. Being outbid by one increment is annoying but I was thoroughly blown out of the water on most of them, although not to completely ridiculous levels (like have happened in the past with billionaire bidders wanting to corner the market).

All price ranges were affected: I couldn't buy a $500 coin to save my life, and my max bid of almost $90K on a coin estimated at $50K was overshadowed by a $150K bid.

I'm hoping to have more (read: any) success tomorrow but not counting on it...

NeoStar · January 7, 2015 9:51AM

I bid strong on the items I was interested on and got my teeth kicked in pretty hard!

HA NYINC Sale

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