Anyone know how the PCGS3000 was created?

Goldbully

I'm amazed at how many commemoratives are in this index.(See bottom of the list)

There were some drastic changes in the index back in 1970, 1989, and 1994.



PCGS3000 Index Coin List

Comments?

AUandAG

That list never made any sense to me....Take for example that it includes a 1895-s in MS64 and one in
MS65. Together those two coins would be worth about 35k. And yet the value for the whole index is
68K?

Don't understand it at all.

bob

jayPem

Way too many coins for me to wrap my head around...are there 3000 coins or something ? ...

LanLord

Based on the information you posted, looks like I should have sold everything I own now on 5/31/1989.

That would be quite a trick since many of my coins are more recent, but maybe that would have really improved their interest level.

TopographicOceans

My guess is they started in May 1989 and guessed at what $1,000 of coins cost in 1970 and figured what a loaf of bread and a gallon of gas cost back then vs. 1989.
And then didn't start tracking prices until Dec 1994.

Either that or they used a random number generator?

roadrunner

With approx 3,000 items on that list I have a feeling I know where the PCGS3000 label came from.

I suspect the index is averaged and weighted per item, per dollar value or something like that so that it isn't heavily skewed towards big dollar coins. The index is based in 1970 with an arbitrary value of $1,000 assigned to that starting point for all of the indexes. The PCGS3000 went from $1,000 in 1970 to $181,000 in May 1989. Did that really happen? I find it hard to believe that rare coins went up 181X in 19 years. I could see the very best and most exceptional of coins rising 100X in that period (many did). I tracked numerous high powered gem coins from 1975 to 1989 and an increase of 30X was very strong. Did rare coins increase the other 6X from 1970 to 1975?...hardly. While you could have cherry picked a common date "typical" gem MS65 Morgan dollar in 1970 for $5-$10, I doubt it was worth 180X more by 1989 ($900-$1800). A gem barber quarter was probably around $150-$200 in 1970. Were they worth 180X more in 1989 (ie $27,000 to $36,000)...hardly. I can't figure that 181X. That's a 30% per year annual increase that rivals any 19 year period that Pittman, Bass, Eliasberg, Norweb, Stack, or even Bernie Madoff had achieved or claimed. The index clearly shows the general investment coin market peak in May 1989 that far exceeds anything seen since.

Yes, May 1989 was the time to dump all your gem dated Morgans and classic commems. They were sky high at that time. It's been 25 yrs since and in most cases we are nowhere near those levels. The PCGS3000 also has to work with the potential issue that a 1989 MS65 or MS66 coin in no way compares to today's MS65 or MS66. Night and day in most cases. But, it's possible that as the grading standards shifted year by year that it was taken up in price. While a MS66 1854-55 half was probably a very hard coin to find (or make) in 1989, those are almost common place today. You could buy one tomorrow if you wanted one.

I'm sort of surprised there are not more bread and butter type circ collector coins on the list. Most of the 19th century type coins are MS/PF 63-66. The index is basically post 1855 key dates in very popular series, choice early 18th century/late 17th c. type in F-FV, choice/gem 19th century type, choice and gem silver dollars - Mercs - Buff - Walkers, choice/gem classic gold and silver commems, and choice/gem gold type with some key dates tossed in. For type collectors and early 20th century MS registry set collectors this index is skewed towards them. Looks more like an investors index than it does a collector's index. There are essential no dated bust, seated, or Barber coinage here other than the 3 key Barber quarter dates and an 1815/12 half. This is a fairly exclusive index and would apply to large dealer's inventories. I guess it's a fair representation of the broader investment grade coin market. 1839-0 bust half? Not on this list. No dated Barber dimes or halves either. 4 circ 1893-s Morgan $ grades represented (F-AU) and also MS63, 64, 65. The real market index should be skewed towards those 4 circs....don't know if PCGS3000 is.

COALPORTER

<< <i>My guess is they started in May 1989 and guessed at what $1,000 of coins cost in 1970 and figured what a loaf of bread and a gallon of gas cost back then vs. 1989.
And then didn't start tracking prices until Dec 1994.

Either that or they used a random number generator? >>




you mean it works just like a slot machine ?

dbcoin

I find it hard to believe that rare coins went up 181X in 19 years.

Monster beverage is up 41,000% since 2000, Keurig is up over 30,000% in that time as well. If two caffeinated beverages could go up that much...